Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Kemal Ataturk's main opposition is gone, but suspicion about Enver Pasha's death may well be as damning as a living opponent for his prospects in Turkey's leadership. If this next battle isn't a blowout success in Ataturk's favor (which, given the sheer exhaustion of the Turkish army and this offensive being across a river, is questionable), the Nationalists' goose may well be cooked. Should their main rival faction end up splintering, it might present an opportunity for the Ottomanists to make a move for control...

Speaking of that, I wonder what kind of deal the Greeks could be inclined to hash out with the Ottoman Sultan in the future. In the event that a restoration does not end up occurring, might they keep around the Caliphal title and a seat in Constantinople? It would irritate religious purists, but given how many Sunni Turks the Greeks are liable to end up annexing, it might be good for stability to have a religious leader in their hands.
 
Kemal Ataturk's main opposition is gone, but suspicion about Enver Pasha's death may well be as damning as a living opponent for his prospects in Turkey's leadership. If this next battle isn't a blowout success in Ataturk's favor (which, given the sheer exhaustion of the Turkish army and this offensive being across a river, is questionable), the Nationalists' goose may well be cooked. Should their main rival faction end up splintering, it might present an opportunity for the Ottomanists to make a move for control...

Speaking of that, I wonder what kind of deal the Greeks could be inclined to hash out with the Ottoman Sultan in the future. In the event that a restoration does not end up occurring, might they keep around the Caliphal title and a seat in Constantinople? It would irritate religious purists, but given how many Sunni Turks the Greeks are liable to end up annexing, it might be good for stability to have a religious leader in their hands.

A particular set of the opposition is gone. There are also the people that formed the OTL second group that are likely more important even if they did not have flashy names like Enver in their ranks while the assembly was divided between "kalpaks", "turbans" and "fezzes", ones who wanted to establish a Republic, ones who wanted sharia to prevail and ones who wanted to maintain Ottoman era law respectively. And you had preeminent nationalists like Rauf Orbay and Kazim Karabekir who were favourable to a constitutional monarchy.
 
Wohoo man! 2 updates so close ? You are spoiling us Lascaris!

I feel that at least in their misery the Armenians at least got the best of OTL here. That is something. Enver pasha came and died ,that was anticlimactic but really to the best interest of Kemal. And a surprise night offensive!! Eagerly awaiting the next update on that (although I doubt it would be successful it could damage the Greeks and force them back until a counter-offensive when the Turks will be thrown back due to numerical and material disadvantage).

I had a question on the Italians though. Wouldn't they see the encirclement of their territories by the Greeks as a serious threat to their presence in Asia Minor? I mean they stopped the Greeks twice in Northern Epirus were there is no real gain for them and they allowed it here? Seems weird especially without any negotiations with Venizelos prior to the Greek movement. They now see that Greece is not a small power that can't project power outside it's border and see them as a major regional rival to their interests. Negotiations here are needed to stop any resentment between the two countries. Maybe the Greeks can give Konya ,after the war, to gain the southern bank of the Meander valley.

We haven't gotten any major Greek move in some time , I mean politically because they moved to Konya, so I wonder what's up back home
 
Wohoo man! 2 updates so close ? You are spoiling us Lascaris!

I feel that at least in their misery the Armenians at least got the best of OTL here. That is something. Enver pasha came and died ,that was anticlimactic but really to the best interest of Kemal. And a surprise night offensive!! Eagerly awaiting the next update on that (although I doubt it would be successful it could damage the Greeks and force them back until a counter-offensive when the Turks will be thrown back due to numerical and material disadvantage).

I had a question on the Italians though. Wouldn't they see the encirclement of their territories by the Greeks as a serious threat to their presence in Asia Minor? I mean they stopped the Greeks twice in Northern Epirus were there is no real gain for them and they allowed it here? Seems weird especially without any negotiations with Venizelos prior to the Greek movement. They now see that Greece is not a small power that can't project power outside it's border and see them as a major regional rival to their interests. Negotiations here are needed to stop any resentment between the two countries. Maybe the Greeks can give Konya ,after the war, to gain the southern bank of the Meander valley.

We haven't gotten any major Greek move in some time , I mean politically because they moved to Konya, so I wonder what's up back home

The Italians were ready to completely give up on the territory they controlled in OTL. Here it is not so much surrounded, there's quite a bit of Turkish controlled territory between them and the Greek army in Konya. But on the other hand Italian supplies to the nationalists were being landed in Antalya and moved from there over a metalled road to Konya from were they could be further distributed by rail. With 3 Greek divisions in Konya that's... problematic to do. Over Italian hostility in general... more to be seen.

And that the Greeks have captured Konya or for that matter Ankara is different from actually keeping it in the peace settlement. They have been captured to further strictly military goals and put pressure on the nationalists. The likely border in case of Greek victory would be much further to the west.
 
Very interesting TL - I came attracted by the cryptic title, and stayed for the vivid dive into a period I knew only distantly. So far, you seem to be keeping a rather reasonable pace of deviation from your (totally-not-two) POD, which makes it all the more interesting.
 

formion

Banned
This also forgets the lack of foreign exchange and gold which in OTL was covered from the Soviets and the Ottoman Red Crescent, in the latter's case in obvious violation of the spirit of the organization.
Gold is the key word. Taxes don't mean much if they are in banknotes or agricultural products. In WW1 Germany had to provide major loans to the OE in gold. If the government wanted to commandeer a couple dozen oxen from a rich landlord for their logistics they had to pay in gold most of times and not in IOUs or banknotes. Similarly, if Kurdish chieftains need bribing, they have to get paid in gold.

I sincerely doubt the Kemalists can make the population of eastern Anatolia to give away their gold in raised taxes. So, without soviet gold, even the internal war effort collapses.

Likewise, military imports need either gold or foreign exchange. If the Kemalists need e.g. £100,000, they have to export products. Yet almost all the export-producing regions are occupied. Only Samsun and its tobacco production remains, but firstly its port is destroyed and secondly it is under blockade.
 
I feel like if this offensive fails we could see a monarchist republic under the Sultan/Caliph form due to pressure from both within and outside of Turkey which would mean that the Ottoman Empire will still go on in the future. On the other hand this surprise attack might mean a recapture of Ankara and capturing of enough greek war material to keep it in a counter-offensive but that is seriously unlikely , still plausible though due to the nature of war. We still don't know the Greek morale , they have a string of victories but 2 weeks now they have stopped and that drops morale usually . Also they have been fighting for almost 10 years now which plays a role in morale. Still very unlikely to happen ,I state all this cause if they lose again , the Turks, they literally collapse and maybe even a civil war is on the table.
On the economic front although I'm not that informed things do seem beyond desperate as their supply lines have been cut , only through the Eastern mountains with their doubtful infrastructure they can get war material and gold and that is now on the mercy of the Soviets which could keep for themselves any gold from donations that was sent to them.
this victorious war will cement Venizelos as a Greek legend to the Greek people and create a very much liberal Greece and not a monarchist-conservative which will play a huge role on conciliating the Schism and unite the country as well as really industrialize way more than OTL ,although money will have to be spent to rebuild the newly annexed area .A question that I have is without the Asia Minor Greeks Macedonia will be less populous and with a more Slavic flavor which will have some side effects on the culture of the area. Also have I mentioned Northern Epirus ? Cause it is another area Italy and Greece might clash.
 
Very interesting TL - I came attracted by the cryptic title, and stayed for the vivid dive into a period I knew only distantly. So far, you seem to be keeping a rather reasonable pace of deviation from your (totally-not-two) POD, which makes it all the more interesting.

I hadn't published a TL in, checks it's almost exactly 12 years since the last instalment of the Guns of Lausanne and soc.history.what-if was still a thing at the the time... but hey there is a tradition in cryptic names to be upheld!
 

formion

Banned
Also they have been fighting for almost 10 years now which plays a role in morale.
The main morale problem for the Greeks was political infighting and not war weariness. The nature of the timeline's POD reduces significantly political infighting.

Certainly, the Greeks have not been fighting for 10 years: The Balkan Wars took place from October 1912 to July 1913. Greece remained neutral in most of WW1. During the National Schism, the 3 divisions of the Venizelists started arriving at the front in December 1916 and participated in major battles from April 1917 and onwards. The rest of the greek army was paralyzed even after the Venizelist victory and was slow to mobilize due to frankly treasonous acts of Royalist officers. The Greek Army as a whole force participated in battles only during the last 2 months of WW1. So, by 1919 you have a solid veteran core of the 3 original National Defence divisions and a majority of "greenish" divisions with limited experience.


In contrast, the Ottomans have been fighting from 1911 onwards with only 1 year of respite between the 2nd Balkan War and WW1. During that decade they suffered horrendous losses with significant demographic effects.


A question that I have is without the Asia Minor Greeks Macedonia will be less populous and with a more Slavic flavor which will have some side effects on the culture of the area.
Not quite. Originally, Macedonia was settled mostly with Pontic and Cappadocian Greeks. The Ionian Greeks settled Athens and southern Greece/islands. In TTL I expect Macedonia to get roughly the same number of settlers, with Russian Greeks settling Asia Minor and east Thrace.

Don't forget that in TTL the Ionian Greeks will have different demographic chracteristics with no liquidation of a good part of the adult male population, nor the death/ enslavement of tens of thousands of women and children. Lastly, a not-insignificant percentage of the OTL refugees died of typhus and other epidemics.

The biggest difference from OTL is that Athens doesn't become the huge metropolis of Greece without the refugees. I think we will see a sort of balance between 3 smaller population centers: Athens, Smyrna and Thessaloniki.
 
@formion You covered me on the war weariness but on the resettlement I don't know if that many will go to Macedonia cause a lot of Turks will be expelled from Thrace and a lot of space will be in Asia Minor itself more likely so those areas are bound to take a lot of the refugees due to the proximity to their origin, so less money spent on transporting them. Undoubtedly a lot will go to Macedonia but not as many as OTL.

Well I think Edirne would be a major city as well and let's not forget Constantinople which could be added down the line with one or another way. If not then I see Smyrna being the bigger city due to its surrounding fertile valley and its big port plus the infrastructure that exists there.
 

formion

Banned
so those areas are bound to take a lot of the refugees due to the proximity to their origin, so less money spent on transporting them. Undoubtedly a lot will go to Macedonia but not as many as OTL.
Well, in any case the Pontic Greeks will be moved by ships from the Black Sea ports. Any march via Anatolia will be a death march. So, the cost of relocation is the same either with ships landing in Thessaloniki or Smyrna.

Karamanlides being turkophones, I don't see allowing them settling in Asia Minor. Greek-speaking Cappadocians may very well settle Smyrna along with Pisidian Greeks (Isparta and environs). Both Smyrna and Isparta had a booming carpet industry: combine both populations (and move the 600-4000 Isparta looms) to Smyrna and you got yourself a promising export industry.

Cilician Greeks (what remains from a pre-war 70k population) would have been by now refugees in Adana, Alexandretta or Syria - same as the Armenians. They will be moved by ship in any case. As they were involved in the cotton industry, they would be useful in unlocking the potential of the central Macedonia cotton: in OTL, Naousa developed a successful cotton industry, earning the sobriquet "The Manchester of Greece".

Bithynian Greeks from Bursa and environs can settle Thrace: both regions had a tradition in sericulture, so a population with the same expertise will have positive effects for Raidestos (otl Tekirdağ), Gallipoli, Adrianople (otl Edirne) and Soufli - places with a major sericulture sector. In contrast, Smyrna had very limited sericulture.

Mariopol Greeks, being experts in tobacco cultivation, are great settlers for Kavala, Drama and Xanthi - the prime greek tobacco regions.

Edit: I forgot that a sizeable minority of Russian Greeks were winegrowers. It would be a lost economic opportunity if they are settled e.g. in Athens instead of the wine-producing areas of Macedonia. Here is a map with the greek wine regions


So, regional expertise may very well influence the settling pattern towards a stronger economy.
 
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The likely border in case of Greek victory would be much further to the west.
If I could guess then I would suppose that it 'll be decided in base to political/military factors...
Given that 'd seem probably that in the case of a Greek victory and/or at least no major defeat, that it 'd be decided/established in the best possible defensible borders (and/or natural borders?) of the Anatolian regions where the Greek population 'd be majority... Also, I 'd guess that would be possible that the relations TTL between the Greece and Nationalist Turk/Ottoman future State could be more or less similar to the OTL relations between France and the German Empire after the '70 war and the French loss of Alsace-Lorraine... I. e. A strong Turkish irredentism/revanchism. While, I 'd suppose that 'd be possible that after any hypothetical Greece victory that could arise in Greece, political/militarist factions/positions that would reject for 'insufficient/not enough' the future Turkish/Greece peace deal/treaty hypothetical territorial acquisitions...
 
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@formion You covered me on the war weariness but on the resettlement I don't know if that many will go to Macedonia cause a lot of Turks will be expelled from Thrace and a lot of space will be in Asia Minor itself more likely so those areas are bound to take a lot of the refugees due to the proximity to their origin, so less money spent on transporting them. Undoubtedly a lot will go to Macedonia but not as many as OTL.

Well I think Edirne would be a major city as well and let's not forget Constantinople which could be added down the line with one or another way. If not then I see Smyrna being the bigger city due to its surrounding fertile valley and its big port plus the infrastructure that exists there.

Adrianople even without is Turkish population would be somewhere in the 50-60,000 range with significant Armenian and Jewish minorities. Long term it should likely be only behind Constantinople and Thessaloniki in size in the region.

Well, in any case the Pontic Greeks will be moved by ships from the Black Sea ports. Any march via Anatolia will be a death march. So, the cost of relocation is the same either with ships landing in Thessaloniki or Smyrna.

Karamanlides being turkophones, I don't see allowing them settling in Asia Minor. Greek-speaking Cappadocians may very well settle Smyrna along with Pisidian Greeks (Isparta and environs). Both Smyrna and Isparta had a booming carpet industry: combine both populations (and move the 600-4000 Isparta looms) to Smyrna and you got yourself a promising export industry.

Cilician Greeks (what remains from a pre-war 70k population) would have been by now refugees in Adana, Alexandretta or Syria - same as the Armenians. They will be moved by ship in any case. As they were involved in the cotton industry, they would be useful in unlocking the potential of the central Macedonia cotton: in OTL, Naousa developed a successful cotton industry, earning the sobriquet "The Manchester of Greece".

Bithynian Greeks from Bursa and environs can settle Thrace: both regions had a tradition in sericulture, so a population with the same expertise will have positive effects for Raidestos (otl Tekirdağ), Gallipoli, Adrianople (otl Edirne) and Soufli - places with a major sericulture sector. In contrast, Smyrna had very limited sericulture.

Mariopol Greeks, being experts in tobacco cultivation, are great settlers for Kavala, Drama and Xanthi - the prime greek tobacco regions.

Edit: I forgot that a sizeable minority of Russian Greeks were winegrowers. It would be a lost economic opportunity if they are settled e.g. in Athens instead of the wine-producing areas of Macedonia. Here is a map with the greek wine regions


So, regional expertise may very well influence the settling pattern towards a stronger economy.

Not all Russia's Greeks are going to be emigrating to Greece. And likely the immigration will be heavily tilted towards the Caucasus populations over the ones in the Ukraine. At a minimum I'd estimate ~150,000 with an upper bound ~280,000. The 70,000 for Cilicia is likely as exaggerated as Karpat's fewer than 9,000 is an undercount. Something in the ~20-30,000 range appears more likely, Quinet in 1894 was giving 46,500 Orthodox with almost half of them being Arab.

If I could guess then I would suppose that it 'll be decided in base to political/military factors...
Given that 'd seem probably that in the case of a Greek victory and/or at least no major defeat, that it 'd be decided/established in the best possible defensible borders (and/or natural borders?) of the Anatolian regions where the Greek population 'd be majority... Also, I 'd guess that would be possible that the relations TTL between the Greece and Nationalist Turk/Ottoman future State could be more or less similar to the OTL relations between France and the German Empire after the '70 war and the French loss of Alsace-Lorraine... I. e. A strong Turkish irredentism/revanchism. While, I 'd suppose that 'd be possible that after any hypothetical Greece victory that could arise in Greece, political/militarist factions/positions that would reject for 'insufficient/not enough' the future Turkish/Greece peace deal/treaty hypothetical territorial acquisitions...

On purely military grounds, one possible defensive line is right to the east of Smyrna, a second line is around Salihli and Phiadelpheia/Alasehir, a third in the mountains right to the east of Usak with more further east. Up north militarily the best border is likely mount Olympus/Uludag. Of course this extends the border to right outside or east of Bursa at a minimum and the last thing any sane Greek government should want is Bursa within its borders. A tricky question. Post that, there is almost certainly going to be an exchange of populations likely involving comparable numbers as OTL even if they'd involve more Turks and fewer Greeks. Not going to be helping future relations...
 
Of course this extends the border to right outside or east of Bursa at a minimum and the last thing any sane Greek government should want is Bursa within its borders.
Why? Because the city was the first historical capital of the Ottomans? Or are there any other reasons?

Honestly I don’t see the relations between Greece and Turkey being good in the years following the war anyway, so leaving Bursa outside of greater Greece won’t make much of a difference to them.
But to be honest I'm more concerned with the fate of Constantinople rather than Bursa.
 
Why? Because the city was the first historical capital of the Ottomans? Or are there any other reasons?

Honestly I don’t see the relations between Greece and Turkey being good in the years following the war anyway, so leaving Bursa outside of greater Greece won’t make much of a difference to them.
But to be honest I'm more concerned with the fate of Constantinople rather than Bursa.

That there's is the first Ottoman capital is one reason of course but as you say not an overwhelmingly strong one. The other is that if you expand Greek control to the Bursa sanjak you add in the Greek zone something in the order of 360-440,000 Turks and no more that 140,000 Greeks and Armenians/ An average 400,000 is not exactly a small number. It is more that the total number of Turks exchanged from Greece in OTL and TTL there is also Thrace and the existing Smyrna zone to take into account.
 

formion

Banned
@Flavius Iulius Nepos, the important thing about Bursa would be that the Greek and Armenian businessmen who had invested in the silk industry, to be able to move their factories.

According to the thesis "THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 1923 GRECO-TURKISH POPULATION EXCHANGE UPON TURKEY" that is available with googling, 73% of all graduates of the Bursa Institute of Sericulture were Greeks or Armenians. Most of the 41 silk factories belonged to Greeks and Armenians (at least 29 according to the thesis). Greeks and Armenians produced at least 2/3 of all the pre-war Ottoman silk. The post-war silk industry in Bursa was founded upon the industrial equipment left behind by christian refugees.

In OTL Interwar, Bursa and East Thrace refugees increased the greek production of silk by 5 times, even though they arrived in Greece penniless and starving. Now if East Thrace remains greek and the Bursa christians , safe behind the fronlines, remove their industrial equipment to Thrace, then I am pretty sure the greek silk production will be increased much more than OTL.

Edit: According to the above source, a significant number of mines in the Eregli coal basin was owned by Greeks. With the Greek Army in Ankara, I wonder if they will send a contingent to Eregli to assist the greek owners to claim some compensation for their mines, or at least get back their equipment.
 
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That there's is the first Ottoman capital is one reason of course but as you say not an overwhelmingly strong one. The other is that if you expand Greek control to the Bursa sanjak you add in the Greek zone something in the order of 360-440,000 Turks and no more that 140,000 Greeks and Armenians/ An average 400,000 is not exactly a small number. It is more that the total number of Turks exchanged from Greece in OTL and TTL there is also Thrace and the existing Smyrna zone to take into account.
Too bad since that means that Nicea and the whole coastal region around the Marmara Sea is not going to join Greece as well. But I get it that with the current demographics the Greeks can’t get much more in Asia. But maybe the eastern Mediterranean islands and northern Epirus are a whole different story. Can’t wait for the next update.
@Flavius Iulius Nepos, the important thing about Bursa would be that the Greek and Armenian businessmen who had invested in the silk industry, to be able to move their factories.

According to the thesis "THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 1923 GRECO-TURKISH POPULATION EXCHANGE UPON TURKEY" that is available with googling, 73% of all graduates of the Bursa Institute of Sericulture were Greeks or Armenians. Most of the 41 silk factories belonged to Greeks and Armenians (at least 29 according to the thesis). Greeks and Armenians produced at least 2/3 of all the pre-war Ottoman silk. The post-war silk industry in Bursa was founded upon the industrial equipment left behind by christian refugees.

In OTL Interwar, Bursa and East Thrace refugees increased the greek production of silk by 5 times, even though they arrived in Greece penniless and starving. Now if East Thrace remains greek and the Bursa christians , safe behind the fronlines, remove their industrial equipment to Thrace, then I am pretty sure the greek silk production will be increased much more than OTL.

Edit: According to the above source, a significant number of mines in the Eregli coal basin was owned by Greeks. With the Greek Army in Ankara, I wonder if they will send a contingent to Eregli to assist the greek owners to claim some compensation for their mines, or at least get back their equipment.
Adding to all this the fact that Greece won’t be so economically overburdened with all the Greeks left homeless after the war (or at least not to the OTL degree), I wonder how powerful it will be during the interwar period. But can Greece effectively assimilate the Armenians (honestly I don’t know how many are still left in turkish territory after the genocide) or are they going to leave for somewhere else (Soviet Armenia maybe)?
 

formion

Banned
But can Greece effectively assimilate the Armenians (honestly I don’t know how many are still left in turkish territory after the genocide) or are they going to leave for somewhere else (Soviet Armenia maybe)?

In OTL under very difficult circumstances Greece took and assimilated tens of thousands of Armenians. Now Greece has far more land and opportunities to offer. I would guess that Venizelos will try to attract as many Armenians as possible. The Cilician Armenians with their expertise in cotton, would be valuable in Smyrna along with the western Anatolia brethren.

I think not a single one will choose to go to Soviet Armenia: the Soviets had just put down violently the Armenian Republic and in any case, of all the armenian homelands, Soviet Armenia was the poorest by far.

Regarding how many Armenians were in turkish territory, I quote the "Thirty Year Old Genocide";
By spring 1923 the Armenians living in and around Turkey were dispersed as follows: 180,000 in Constantinople (of whom 30,000 were refugees); 120,000 in Syria (100,000 refugees); 107,000 in Greece (77,000 refugees); 60,000 in Bulgaria (40,000 refugees); 100,000 in Anatolia; 37,000 in Rumania (7,000 refugees); 900,000 in Russian Armenia; and 300,000 in the Caucasus (100,000 refugees).

Of this population, I believe the refugee populations in Constantinople, Syria, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria were Cilician and Western Anatolian Armenians. If we add those remaining in Anatolia, we have a ballpark figure of around 350,000, perhaps a bit more as they will dodge the 1922 massacres.

Moreover, it is my great hope that in this timeline, at least a few of the enslaved women and children will escape their OTL fate. To quote from the same book regarding the enslavement of christians:
Rumbold estimated that, during November 1918– December 1920, 30,000 Armenian orphans and 24,000 women were recovered, 10,000 of the children and 2,000 of the women by the British. How many remained in Muslim hands is unclear. In February 1920, Gates estimated that more than 60,000 Armenian “young girls and orphans” were in Muslim house holds; in mid-1919, the Armenian Patriarchate had spoken of 70,000 orphans and 50,000 women in Muslim house holds, and of 87,000 Armenians in orphanages in Turkey, Armenia, and Georgia.

All these numbers seem to exclude Greeks. In May 1923 the British Foreign Office maintained that “more than one hundred thousand Christian women and children” had been reclaimed from Muslim homes, but a year later, it stated that “not less than 80,000” Christians, half of them Armenian “and probably more,” were still “forcibly detained in Turkish houses,” many in “slavery.”
 
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