At the start of the war in OTL, Valona port capacity was 1200t/day, Durres 800t and you also had St John Di Medua (modern Shengin) and Agioi Saranda (Sarande) at 150-200t. The last one was liberated in early December by the Greeks which left the other three. During the war the Italians doubled port capacity of Valona and Durres (Sadkowitz 1993). That gives you 4,200t to keep in supply ~526,000 men, call it a rough 150t per division. So with existing port capacity the should be able to supply 14-15 divisions. Remove Vlore and you are down to 6, a dozen after port capacity expansion, which is a rather unappealing prospect...
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Indeed, against a Greek army anchored on a highly mountainous border and its large strategic depth, it doesn't look good at all for Mussolini.
Well for all sound minds in the Italian staff invading Greece is now not an option until the port of dürres expands significantly... but if the war expands in the Mediterranean greece is bound by treaty to join... Maybe we shall see Greece attacking Italy this time..but that depends on who is in the government and of course there is the matter of 1940 elections as well... damnit greece why you can't have elections at a less critical moment...
If war has already broken out, they may as well be postponed I'd say. Both France and the UK had scheduled elections that year, and both postponed them (in France's case, they did extend the legislature's term by two years back in July 1939, well before war even broke out).
Greece has a treaty with France and Britain yes. If you are in June 1940, the French have just declared Paris an open city, which means it's about to fall and Italy just jumped in... what to do will be a very tough decision for the Greek government. Or anyone else pro-allied in the Balkans.
Technically Greece should have an election no later than November 1940. Of course with Venizelos dead fractures within the Liberal party are almost certain, the Greek centre was notoriously fractured in OTL for a generation after his death. TTL there are certain notable differences of course, not least that he continuously had the party under his grip since 1920.
On another hand, it should be obvious at this point to Greek leadership war is unavoidable. For years, it has seen a consistent collusion of Turkey and Italy along Bulgaria against Greece.
So, if war is unavoidable, it would look better to launch a "preemptive" invasion of Albania while Italy is busy looking towards France, even if it's on verge of falling; legally, they would be fullfilling their obligations to the Entente. And if the British remain in the fight, that means they can rely on the British navy to somewhat neutralize Italy's naval advantage.
And practically, they would be taking their enemies flat-footed, potentially eliminating the Albanian front in one fell swoop and thus free to focus use the bulk of the Army against Bulgarians and Turkey. Also, as I understand, when they attacked France in June 1940, it seems Italy wasn't prepared yet for the war and had quite some troubles at mobilizing. I think that too should work at Greece advantage when it comes to how the Italians would react to a Greek invasion of Albania (I doubt this factor would be known beforehand and impact the decision to launch an invasion, but if as I suspect, Greece is much more efficient and faster at mobilizing, that would be big troubles for Italy).
Besides, if we also go with a FFO analogue evacuation to North Africa and a subsequent Anglo-French invasion of Libya, the odds would be even better for Greece.
So, if war is unavoidable, it would look better to launch a "preemptive" invasion of Albania while Italy is busy looking towards France, even if it's on verge of falling; legally, they would be fullfilling their obligations to the Entente. And if the British remain in the fight, that means they can rely on the British navy to somewhat neutralize Italy's naval advantage.
And practically, they would be taking their enemies flat-footed, potentially eliminating the Albanian front in one fell swoop and thus free to focus use the bulk of the Army against Bulgarians and Turkey. Also, as I understand, when they attacked France in June 1940, it seems Italy wasn't prepared yet for the war and had quite some troubles at mobilizing. I think that too should work at Greece advantage when it comes to how the Italians would react to a Greek invasion of Albania (I doubt this factor would be known beforehand and impact the decision to launch an invasion, but if as I suspect, Greece is much more efficient and faster at mobilizing, that would be big troubles for Italy).
Besides, if we also go with a FFO analogue evacuation to North Africa and a subsequent Anglo-French invasion of Libya, the odds would be even better for Greece.
Yes in think itl greece would not be trying to avoid war because they know is impossible but the great debate would be to act or to react to the war..i.e wait to be invaded or join the war at the best possible time....
Also, launching the war in June 1940 has another advantage for Greece, namely Germany won't be able to intervene before a few months as it is stuck in France and then busy bombing the British Isles and preparing for an invasion. Redeploying in support of Italy would take long, and even longer if Yugoslavia blocks the land route to Bulgaria.
It is a legitimate option... of course it also likely means the Turks and Bulgarians jump Greece in such a scenario, with the Romanians staying neutral (they have the Soviets on their backs after all) while the Yugoslavs will be in a very difficult position to put it mildly. If they go to war they are directly bordering Italy, Germany, Bulgaria and Hungary...
At this stage, I think it's safe to assume Greek political leadership and military leadership have long gone from a "if" to a "when" question about Turkey and Bulgaria going to war at the same time as Italy. Invading Albania with utmost diligence in this option is motivated by the very prospect of Bulgaria and Turkey attacking in collusion with Italy.
And would Greeks really count on Yugoslav and Romanian support there?
I don't see them that oblivious to these developments in the north, especially after Yugoslavia previous overtures to the Axis. I would surmise some of the updated Greek war plans by late 1939 feature prominently the very possibility of going in it alone with only Anglo-French support against Italian, Turkish and Bulgarian armies, a situation in which a preemptive attack to defeat them in detail remains the best option.
So long as Greek and British navies hold the lanes, Turkey, Bulgaria and Italian Albania remain in the precarious situation of being geographically isolated from each other, with Greeks holding the interior lines. And so long as Italy and Germany are busy in France or in the Channel, there is a very reduced window of opportunity, the best that Greece will ever have in years. Hence my thinking of this option. But of course, it's a very much military oriented thinking (there is hindsight too, so war plans may not go as far, but I think the perspective of Italy and German forces distracted by the French campaign can be very much perceptible to Greek leadership when it happens and would lead to about the same conclusion), so political decisioning may for some reason I don't perceive yet, and can't wait to read ^^, get us away from this future.
And back to Yugoslavia, in a tough spot indeed, but comparatively (with hindsight there) to OTL, much better. Unlike April 1941, even if Yugoslavia is drawn into the war flat-footed as it was, local Axis or Axis aligned powers would be too. Unlike OTL where it was in the midst of a huge buildup in anticipation of Operation Barbarossa, from which basis it could divert and mobilize forces quickly against Greece and Yugoslavia I think, Germany still has the bulk of its forces and infrastructure geared towards the French campaign I think, so I doubt Yugoslavia would collapse the same way it did IOTL. At worst, it could have time to properly mobilize and withdraw south towards Greece. Even better for Allies as it would relieve pressure from Thrace and Epirus fronts by diverting Italian and most importantly Bulgarian forces.
And would Greeks really count on Yugoslav and Romanian support there?
I don't see them that oblivious to these developments in the north, especially after Yugoslavia previous overtures to the Axis. I would surmise some of the updated Greek war plans by late 1939 feature prominently the very possibility of going in it alone with only Anglo-French support against Italian, Turkish and Bulgarian armies, a situation in which a preemptive attack to defeat them in detail remains the best option.
So long as Greek and British navies hold the lanes, Turkey, Bulgaria and Italian Albania remain in the precarious situation of being geographically isolated from each other, with Greeks holding the interior lines. And so long as Italy and Germany are busy in France or in the Channel, there is a very reduced window of opportunity, the best that Greece will ever have in years. Hence my thinking of this option. But of course, it's a very much military oriented thinking (there is hindsight too, so war plans may not go as far, but I think the perspective of Italy and German forces distracted by the French campaign can be very much perceptible to Greek leadership when it happens and would lead to about the same conclusion), so political decisioning may for some reason I don't perceive yet, and can't wait to read ^^, get us away from this future.
And back to Yugoslavia, in a tough spot indeed, but comparatively (with hindsight there) to OTL, much better. Unlike April 1941, even if Yugoslavia is drawn into the war flat-footed as it was, local Axis or Axis aligned powers would be too. Unlike OTL where it was in the midst of a huge buildup in anticipation of Operation Barbarossa, from which basis it could divert and mobilize forces quickly against Greece and Yugoslavia I think, Germany still has the bulk of its forces and infrastructure geared towards the French campaign I think, so I doubt Yugoslavia would collapse the same way it did IOTL. At worst, it could have time to properly mobilize and withdraw south towards Greece. Even better for Allies as it would relieve pressure from Thrace and Epirus fronts by diverting Italian and most importantly Bulgarian forces.
On a side note what is the size of the Bulgarian army at this time? And what are the minimum manpower requirements of the Smyrna fortified zone?
And with Greece having about 18 divisions And an airforce it makes even more sense capture Albania and then turn around and fight Bulgaria..hell in theory greece could knock Bulgaria out of the war due to the fact that Bulgaria is isolated and with no new equipment coming in from Germany.. but turkey is another matter of course and let's not forget Constantinople...or the Soviets they would not like the idea of greek or British warships in the black sea
My bad i just saw that Greece is having about 6 divisions for the asia minor front and I don't expect that even with having only the fortified zone to defend to reduce the number of divisions in the asia minor front...
Got to add in OTL the quality/equipment of the Bulgarian Forces was abysmal, reason the Germans did not try and get them to reinforce the Eastern Front ,even as garrison forces, they were seen as a liability.
On the other hand the preemptive strike could be implemented against Bulgaria for a fast victory or a crippling strike. The same logic as an Albanian Invasion applies here. Although it would be harder for an absolute victory Bulgaria can be put out as a threat and Italy wouldn't be ready yet for a comprehensive response. Also Bulgaria is a easier target than Turkey and can be bombarded in their home territory unlike Italy so it might be easier to kick 'em out before they are a viable threat.
But of course the hindsight is strong here. In Greek view they are not threatened till France falls which it won't , by their view, so neutrality is the order of the day as OTL. Of course it all depends on the political scene in the fallout of Venizelos's death.
But of course the hindsight is strong here. In Greek view they are not threatened till France falls which it won't , by their view, so neutrality is the order of the day as OTL. Of course it all depends on the political scene in the fallout of Venizelos's death.
True...but greece could claim that it is enforcing the treaty of neuilly.. namely she could claim that he is enforcing the Bulgarian disarmament clause that Bulgaria is breaking right now...
I think that sometimes we get carried away because of our knowledge of OTL. We should keep in mind that people of the time didn't have this knowledge and they are restricted by the information of their time and the convictions of their time, too.
That said:
1. I am convinced that Greece, regardless of her leadership, will never think of launching a pre-emptive attack on Italian Albania. Greece is in better shape in TTL, but Italy is supposed to be a Great Power with a huge army. In June '40 the Greeks have no way of knowing, or at least they don't have the time to digest that the performance of the Italian army can make such scenarios plausible. The only way the Greeks might plan an offensive initiative towards Albania, is if the British commit sufficient forces, but can they?
2. Greece can launch a pre-emptive attack on Bulgaria, because she is not a GP and her army is very inferior. Maybe the role the author has kept for Pangalos points to this direction, if we consider his OTL conduct towards Bulgaria.
That said:
1. I am convinced that Greece, regardless of her leadership, will never think of launching a pre-emptive attack on Italian Albania. Greece is in better shape in TTL, but Italy is supposed to be a Great Power with a huge army. In June '40 the Greeks have no way of knowing, or at least they don't have the time to digest that the performance of the Italian army can make such scenarios plausible. The only way the Greeks might plan an offensive initiative towards Albania, is if the British commit sufficient forces, but can they?
2. Greece can launch a pre-emptive attack on Bulgaria, because she is not a GP and her army is very inferior. Maybe the role the author has kept for Pangalos points to this direction, if we consider his OTL conduct towards Bulgaria.
Part 50
Senate chamber, Athens, May 12th 1939
The chamber was packed with over 200 people as every member of parliament and senator of the Liberal party had come into session to elect the new head of the party. Someone might had expected this would had been a simple matter. Themistoklis Sofoulis was 79 and president of the republic, thus not a candidate. Alexandros Papanastasiou had died back in 1936, Andreas Michalakopoulos two months before Venizelos after a lengthy illness. Thus George Kafandaris, for decades the closest lieutenant of Venizelos should had been the obvious choice. He was, but this had not stopped Sofoklis Venizelos, George Papandreou, Ioannis Sofianopoulos, Alexandros Mylonas and Konstantinos Zavitsanos. Someone could understand Papandreou and the younger Venizelos, both were growing in influence within the party, Venizelos no doubt helped by his name in addition to his undoubted qualities. Sofianopoulos, Mylonas and Zavitsanos were rather less excusable and were eliminated in the first ballot. In the second ballot Zavitsanos backed Kafandaris and Sofianopoulos and Mylonas backed Papandreou. It would take a third ballot and Venizelos throwing his lot with Kafandaris, for him to be elected to the leadership of the Liberal party and confirmed as prime minister.
Italy, June 1939
Four Soldati class destroyers and as many Adua class submarines were laid down for the Turkish navy. Back in Turkey there was some grumbling in the army over the money being spent in the navy, the new orders were expected to cost over 2.3 million pounds, money that the army, starved for modern equipment could had certainly used. But Peker had several reasons to want to reinforce the navy, his position and keeping the support of Rauf Orbay not least among them.
Athens, June 1939
"Son of minister of education member of Trotskyist organization!" proclaimed the newspaper's headlines. And not just any newspaper but Athinaika Nea, the evening paper of the Lambrakis group and the Liberals first paper in circulation. Being a Trotskyist as Andreas Papandreou was, was not illegal but certainly was rather highly frowned upon. Being a Trorskyist while your father has been for the past several years the minister of education as George Papandreou was? This was even more frowned and also rather embarrassing for the elder Papandreou that he had found himself under mounting attacks that claimed anything from him being incompetent, a minister of education that could not educate even his own son, accusing him as a traitor who wanted to undermine the education of Greek children. Kafandaris had supported his minister if in the end he had been forced to switch Papandreou to a different ministry, but it had been anything but difficult for Papandreou to see what had happened as a direct assault against him from within his own party when the initial articles attacking him had come from the party's largest newspaper...
New York, July 1939
Young Andreas Papandreou, looked at the Big Apple opening in front of him with just a bit of a sense of wonder. Nothing in his native Athens or for that matter Smyrna and Constantinople truly compared, even if Athens did have its own appeal and probably noone could ever visit Constantinople without somehow being mesmerized by the Queen of Cities. Following the mess of the past two months, his father had been strongly advised that Andreas should be off the limelight for a while and a scholarship for the United States had been quietly arranged. But one could be philosophical about it. With law school off the way, normally Andreas would have had to spend two years on the army and while between his education and his father's connections a slot in one of the reserve officer schools was certain, exchanging the life of a student with life in uniform was not the most enticing of prospects, even if one forgot such minor issues like the political situation of Europe. Harvard was bound to be most interesting for a bright intellectually curious young man...
Moscow, August 15th, 1939
Sergei Korolev and Valentin Glushko had been rounded up on the same day the previous year, in all probability they had been denounced by the same person and held together in Butyrka prison for the past 17 months. Now they were both sentenced to 8 years in prison each for supposedly sabotaging Soviet aeronautical developments. But at least the sharatska they were moved to serve their terms was more interesting and had better living conditions than Butyrka. The two men had discussed a lot of plans and ideas while together in prison, after all they didn't have anyone else to talk to, who could had understood them. But would any of their dreams ever come true? It seemed doubtful...
Moscow, August 26th, 1939
British and French staff talks with the Soviet Union went on and on but despite initial Soviet hopes seemed to be going nowhere. British ad French negotiators did not appear very enthusiastic in the first place and the adamant Soviet demand that the Soviet Union should be given a seat in the League of Nations administration of Constantinople only made things worse as the British appeared to be equally adamant to refuse any concession to the Russian bear related to Constantinople. If the British and French would not budge they were not the only game in town...
Berlin, August 26th, 1939
The German army was all set to cross the Polish border, despite the failure to negotiate any agreement with the Soviets so far, the Soviet insistence on concessions over Constantinople had proven a big stumbling block. But the official British accession to the Franco-Polish alliance the previous day had given Hitler second thoughts and the invasion had been temporarily delayed. Mostly at least, some special forces teams had already gone to action before the order to hold off the invasion had gone out. The ongoing secret negotiations with the Soviets had just gotten even greater imperative.
Warsaw, August 29th, 1939
Poland was already taking mobilization measures since the crisis with Germany begun but had avoided a general mobilization order so far, if nothing else the cost would had been hard to bear. But time for half measures was probably over, Polish signals intercepts had located what appeared to be at least 60 divisions arrayed against Poland after all. What the Polish government had not counted upon was Britain and France immediately putting pressure upon it to rescind the general mobilization order lest it provoke the Germans and thus remove the last hopes for a peaceful settlement. The Poles almost budged. Then news from Moscow reached Warsaw. The Soviet Union and Germany had just announced to the world their non-aggression treaty. The mobilization went on...
Selected terms of secret addendum to German-Soviet non-aggression treaty
The chamber was packed with over 200 people as every member of parliament and senator of the Liberal party had come into session to elect the new head of the party. Someone might had expected this would had been a simple matter. Themistoklis Sofoulis was 79 and president of the republic, thus not a candidate. Alexandros Papanastasiou had died back in 1936, Andreas Michalakopoulos two months before Venizelos after a lengthy illness. Thus George Kafandaris, for decades the closest lieutenant of Venizelos should had been the obvious choice. He was, but this had not stopped Sofoklis Venizelos, George Papandreou, Ioannis Sofianopoulos, Alexandros Mylonas and Konstantinos Zavitsanos. Someone could understand Papandreou and the younger Venizelos, both were growing in influence within the party, Venizelos no doubt helped by his name in addition to his undoubted qualities. Sofianopoulos, Mylonas and Zavitsanos were rather less excusable and were eliminated in the first ballot. In the second ballot Zavitsanos backed Kafandaris and Sofianopoulos and Mylonas backed Papandreou. It would take a third ballot and Venizelos throwing his lot with Kafandaris, for him to be elected to the leadership of the Liberal party and confirmed as prime minister.
Italy, June 1939
Four Soldati class destroyers and as many Adua class submarines were laid down for the Turkish navy. Back in Turkey there was some grumbling in the army over the money being spent in the navy, the new orders were expected to cost over 2.3 million pounds, money that the army, starved for modern equipment could had certainly used. But Peker had several reasons to want to reinforce the navy, his position and keeping the support of Rauf Orbay not least among them.
Athens, June 1939
"Son of minister of education member of Trotskyist organization!" proclaimed the newspaper's headlines. And not just any newspaper but Athinaika Nea, the evening paper of the Lambrakis group and the Liberals first paper in circulation. Being a Trotskyist as Andreas Papandreou was, was not illegal but certainly was rather highly frowned upon. Being a Trorskyist while your father has been for the past several years the minister of education as George Papandreou was? This was even more frowned and also rather embarrassing for the elder Papandreou that he had found himself under mounting attacks that claimed anything from him being incompetent, a minister of education that could not educate even his own son, accusing him as a traitor who wanted to undermine the education of Greek children. Kafandaris had supported his minister if in the end he had been forced to switch Papandreou to a different ministry, but it had been anything but difficult for Papandreou to see what had happened as a direct assault against him from within his own party when the initial articles attacking him had come from the party's largest newspaper...
New York, July 1939
Young Andreas Papandreou, looked at the Big Apple opening in front of him with just a bit of a sense of wonder. Nothing in his native Athens or for that matter Smyrna and Constantinople truly compared, even if Athens did have its own appeal and probably noone could ever visit Constantinople without somehow being mesmerized by the Queen of Cities. Following the mess of the past two months, his father had been strongly advised that Andreas should be off the limelight for a while and a scholarship for the United States had been quietly arranged. But one could be philosophical about it. With law school off the way, normally Andreas would have had to spend two years on the army and while between his education and his father's connections a slot in one of the reserve officer schools was certain, exchanging the life of a student with life in uniform was not the most enticing of prospects, even if one forgot such minor issues like the political situation of Europe. Harvard was bound to be most interesting for a bright intellectually curious young man...
Moscow, August 15th, 1939
Sergei Korolev and Valentin Glushko had been rounded up on the same day the previous year, in all probability they had been denounced by the same person and held together in Butyrka prison for the past 17 months. Now they were both sentenced to 8 years in prison each for supposedly sabotaging Soviet aeronautical developments. But at least the sharatska they were moved to serve their terms was more interesting and had better living conditions than Butyrka. The two men had discussed a lot of plans and ideas while together in prison, after all they didn't have anyone else to talk to, who could had understood them. But would any of their dreams ever come true? It seemed doubtful...
Moscow, August 26th, 1939
British and French staff talks with the Soviet Union went on and on but despite initial Soviet hopes seemed to be going nowhere. British ad French negotiators did not appear very enthusiastic in the first place and the adamant Soviet demand that the Soviet Union should be given a seat in the League of Nations administration of Constantinople only made things worse as the British appeared to be equally adamant to refuse any concession to the Russian bear related to Constantinople. If the British and French would not budge they were not the only game in town...
Berlin, August 26th, 1939
The German army was all set to cross the Polish border, despite the failure to negotiate any agreement with the Soviets so far, the Soviet insistence on concessions over Constantinople had proven a big stumbling block. But the official British accession to the Franco-Polish alliance the previous day had given Hitler second thoughts and the invasion had been temporarily delayed. Mostly at least, some special forces teams had already gone to action before the order to hold off the invasion had gone out. The ongoing secret negotiations with the Soviets had just gotten even greater imperative.
Warsaw, August 29th, 1939
Poland was already taking mobilization measures since the crisis with Germany begun but had avoided a general mobilization order so far, if nothing else the cost would had been hard to bear. But time for half measures was probably over, Polish signals intercepts had located what appeared to be at least 60 divisions arrayed against Poland after all. What the Polish government had not counted upon was Britain and France immediately putting pressure upon it to rescind the general mobilization order lest it provoke the Germans and thus remove the last hopes for a peaceful settlement. The Poles almost budged. Then news from Moscow reached Warsaw. The Soviet Union and Germany had just announced to the world their non-aggression treaty. The mobilization went on...
Selected terms of secret addendum to German-Soviet non-aggression treaty
- Partition of Poland into German and Soviet spheres of influence
- Assignment of Finland, the Baltic states and Bessarabia to Soviet sphere of influence.
- Return of Vilnius to Lithuania
- Return of Constantinople to Turkey subject to special provisions on the straits
- Free use of the straits by Soviet navy and merchant shipping in times of peace and war
- Closing of straits to all warships in excess of 10,000t displacement not belonging to a Black Sea power. Non Black Sea power warships allowed into Black Sea never to exceed 30,000t displacement.