Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

It would be interesting an Alawite state that allies with Israel, has Hafez al-Assad come to power, then is allied with Israel and a Gemayel led Lebanon against Syria and the wider Arab world
I think that's what that'll happen, with Greece being an important patron that will help them be seen as good allies by the British/Americans. I wonder if Abdullah would ally himself with the Soviets as decolonisation kicks in or would he continue working together with the west. After all, the Saudis are staunch allies of the Americans, and unlike the gulf monarchies he's ruling Iraq and Syria, which are a lot more substantial and don't rely on oil money until much later.
I wonder if hat happened in Assyria combined with being forced out of Syria proper means the French might ensure the Alawites are armed to the teeth when, if, they eventually leave. I could see the French having a few bases in the area assuming they leave on good terms. I could see the Alawites and the Israelis declaring their independence simultaneously to split the Arab efforts, with Syria focusing on the Alawites while Abdullah and maybe Egypt focusing on Israel. With both countries probably coming out stronger at the end. I’m not sure what the exact borders of the Alawite state are but assuming it’s the same as the OTL one I could see them making a push into the surrounding areas with Alawite minorities if they can.
I wonder if the French would give the Assyrians Muslim lands to settle in if they can be their enforcers of greater Lebanon.

On the Alawites I think they'll see Abdullah as evil as I don't Abudullah not push for Arabian nationalism, as both secular and islamist (sunni really) Arabic nationalism would require the death of Alawia (?) and Lebanon as states and peoples. With the fact that Alexandretta is French would make things interesting. On one hand I think the French gave the region around Alexandretta to Aleppo in otl, but in ittl would the french do the same after pushing for Alawite statehood ittl?

I think Syria would fall under Abdullah's control due to it being landlocked and french influence being strong in the region. This also pushes Abdullah to be more pro-soviet.
I think I speak for many of us when I say I’d love to see the rough draft when this timeline is done. Just to see how it evolved and what changed. An alt timeline of an alt timeline if you will. Even if it was just the highlights.
Yeah that would be very cool indeed, it'd be a fun final post on an alternate final tl. Since we already have otl as a tl ittl.
 
I think that's what that'll happen, with Greece being an important patron that will help them be seen as good allies by the British/Americans. I wonder if Abdullah would ally himself with the Soviets as decolonisation kicks in or would he continue working together with the west. After all, the Saudis are staunch allies of the Americans, and unlike the gulf monarchies he's ruling Iraq and Syria, which are a lot more substantial and don't rely on oil money until much later.

I wonder if the French would give the Assyrians Muslim lands to settle in if they can be their enforcers of greater Lebanon.

On the Alawites I think they'll see Abdullah as evil as I don't Abudullah not push for Arabian nationalism, as both secular and islamist (sunni really) Arabic nationalism would require the death of Alawia (?) and Lebanon as states and peoples. With the fact that Alexandretta is French would make things interesting. On one hand I think the French gave the region around Alexandretta to Aleppo in otl, but in ittl would the french do the same after pushing for Alawite statehood ittl?

I think Syria would fall under Abdullah's control due to it being landlocked and french influence being strong in the region. This also pushes Abdullah to be more pro-soviet.

Yeah that would be very cool indeed, it'd be a fun final post on an alternate final tl. Since we already have otl as a tl ittl.
I must admit I am highly skeptical. Sure, the Cold War had some pretty weird alliances going on but this one seems just a bit too much counter nature ideologically IMO, especially since the Soviets the Nasserites/Bahatists types, who are a far better fit for a Soviet alliance, would also presumably compete with Abdullah as both sides would want to steer the course of Arab nationalism as a whole.
 
I must confess I did not think that Abdullah vs. Assyrians conflict would had ended this badly. I was half-hoping he would offer them some level of autonomy on his terms once it became clear he was winning. I was wrong. This is tragic, but in the long-term better for the Assyrians as long as they end up somewhere where they are given cultural and fiscal autonomy.
 
I must confess I did not think that Abdullah vs. Assyrians conflict would had ended this badly. I was half-hoping he would offer them some level of autonomy on his terms once it became clear he was winning. I was wrong. This is tragic, but in the long-term better for the Assyrians as long as they end up somewhere where they are given cultural and fiscal autonomy.
I could be wrong, but I would think that come 1945 internal legitimacy is much more important for Abdullah than external legitimacy. It would be all too easy for Abdullah to be accused of being a British puppet installed by force... because after all it is largely true. With this in mind would an autonomy deal be in Abdullah's advantage? Arguably not. His relation with Britain does not depend on it, he's by now too important to the British for them to significantly damage their relations on moral grounds. But within Iraq and the rest of the Arab world all too many people would be screaming from the rooftops that any short of an Assyrian deal would be tantamount to treason. Since the Assyrians cannot force one...
 
I think I speak for many of us when I say I’d love to see the rough draft when this timeline is done. Just to see how it evolved and what changed. An alt timeline of an alt timeline if you will. Even if it was just the highlights.
Speaking of TLs within the TL Mussolini in OTL was making some serious ramblings about invading France and Yugoslavia, they are described in AJP Taylor IMS. TTL including Greece in the mix and Turkey jumping on the Italian side would be an obvious one. IMS @Khan Doomy was a proponent for that one thinking Mussolini would not wait for something like WW2 with Greece in Asia Minor. In the end I decided Benny was probably too conservative to risk an European war on his own without great power allies and the strong possibility of Britain joining the fray. But still...
 
Speaking of TLs within the TL Mussolini in OTL was making some serious ramblings about invading France and Yugoslavia, they are described in AJP Taylor IMS. TTL including Greece in the mix and Turkey jumping on the Italian side would be an obvious one. IMS @Khan Doomy was a proponent for that one thinking Mussolini would not wait for something like WW2 with Greece in Asia Minor. In the end I decided Benny was probably too conservative to risk an European war on his own without great power allies and the strong possibility of Britain joining the fray. But still...
I think that was the right call. After all, even the French disaster in the Ardennes wasn't enough to get him to take the plunge right away and he waited until the last French line on the Somme began to crumble to do so. I can't imagine him being the man who started the war. For all his imperialism he was an opportunist at heart, even if he was often prone to overconfidence of his odds of victory.
 
Part 173
Rome, December 10th, 1945

A new Italian government was formed under Alcide de Gasperi. Despite increasing tensions from the outbreak of the Yugoslav civil war the communist party would participate in the new government.

Paris, December 19th, 1945

The French and British governments agreed to both withdraw their troops from Greater Syria within the next six month and to further provide humanitarian aid to the Assyrian refugees in Syrian territory. The Arab Legion had stopped its pursuit of the remains of the Assyrian Rifles at the border but this had not meant the Assyrians were safe as they came under attack by Syrian and Kurdish militias. Al Hasakah was claimed by both the Kurds and the Syrians, was sparsely populated with a quarter of its population about 20,000 people being Christians. The last thing both the Kurds and the Arabs wanted was getting tens of thousands of Assyrians settling in the region...

Serbia, December 21st, 1945

The first two weeks of the civil war had been, relatively uneventful militarily. Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Voivodina were communist dominated. Thousands of suspected Chetnik sympathizers had been rounded up by the OZNA but no fighting to speak off had taken place. It hadn't been much different in Serbia and Montenegro aside from it being the gendarmeerie seizing communists ans suspecting communists by the thousands instead of the other way south. Further south things had proven much tougher for the Royal Yugoslav army as Mihailo Apostolski a veteran of the Bulgarian army who deserted it to join the Yugoslav partisans back in early 1943 [1] at the head of "National Liberation Army detachments of Kosovo and Macedonia" with some 22,000 men overall has proven himself too big and too capable to get crushed by the two Yugoslav divisions in the south of the country. The nationalists had kept control of the big cities and the vital roads and railroads south to Greece but would have to deal with a large scale guerrila war.

By now the National Liberation Army had had enough time to move enough men and supplies to launch the first big offensive of the war as over half a million men launched a three pronged invasion of Yugoslavia, across the Drina in the west and from Syrmia and Voivodina in the north. The royal army, it would be officially named the Yugoslav National army a week later would meet the offensive with only a quarter million men but more artillery an eight to one superiority in tanks and air superiority...

Albania, December 28th, 1945


The country was broken in three. South of the Shkumbin river the Albanian National Army dominated. In the furthest not royalist militias were in control. Between them the communists controlled Durres, Tirana and roughly half the country's population. With the two sides being evenly matched everything would be determined by outside support and the tens of thousands of Albanian refugees that had fled from Epirus, Kosovo and Tetovo in the end of the war. Someone might expect that being strongly nationalistic these would end supporting the anti-communists. It would prove much less clear cut. The national army was being accused, of being a Greek puppet. In the noth the royalists had ties to the Serbs. Many of the refugees had openly fough against the Greeks and the Serbs in the previous war and all pf them had fled them...

Serbia, January 6th, 1946

The communist offensive came to a screeching halt after suffering over thirty thousand casualties for barely over five thousand nationalists. The NLA despite having been parly reequiped by the Soviets late in the war had proven no much in open fighting against their veteral heavily armed opponenents. A lot a things would have to be changed before the offensive resumed...

Athens January 7th, 1946


The Greek government had survived the civil wars to its north by a month. But in the end it had collapsed. Zachariadis had insisted that Greece should avoid any active participation in the fighting to its north. Certainly no troops should be sent, something upon which his right wing allies certainly agreed and no war material either something they were more ambivalent about. It was not a popular stance particularly when the Yugoslavs had fought by the Greek side during the war. The loud proclamations by Apostolski about a "free Macedonia" had further exacerbated things being met by what amounted to horror, most of the Greek public did not consider anything to the north of Monastir to be part of Macedonia in the first place, while the rhetoric sounded no different than Comintern's line before the war trying to foment separatism in northern Greece, with the recent Bulgarian occupation making the public all the more sensitive. Zachariadis had tried to shift the narrative by publicly pushing for Greece demanding enosis with Cyprus in the peace conference. In the end the Liberals had placed a motion of no confidence on the government and enough of Dragoumis and Stratos MPs had abstained for the motion to pass. Shortly after the Liberals would form a coalition with Papandreou's Demorcratic Agrarians and Stratos conservatives with George Kafandaris as the new prime minister.


[1] With TTL Bulgaria having a rather more active war Apostolski a trained officer was not just left to study in the university of Sophia.
 
I’m honestly a bit surprised to see the Greek communists go down like this. They didn’t act particular unreasonable, just bad enough for the Liberals to get a no confidence vote through. If they’d allowed weapons to be sent abroad or been forceful against any concept of a Free Macedonia instead of pivoting they probably would have survived. Over all the results of both civil wars are what would be expected so far. Since Serbia seems to already have the advantage of better and more equipment I wonder if we see most of the material go to Albania, while volunteers are allowed to go to Serbia since they seem like they could use more man power than equipment. While Monastir might be where Macedonia ends for your average Greek I could still see the border moving north somewhat with how badly Serbia needs help. Land is land and it would be nice if the city had a buffer in case of war.
 
Well post war Greek politics also seem to be a mess , though not nearly as much as Otl.

Is Bulgaria still occupied militarily (If so what are the zones), or do they still have a standing army that can give it at least some influence in the region.
 

pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
the Macedonian identity still does not exists yet. so the problem speaking from political view is that a free macedonia would identify itself as Bulgarian and eventually seek unification. which i guess would be not acceptable to Greece. but would make an even bigger meme out of Bulgaria gaining lands after ww2 despite being on loser side.

@Lascaris btw, did the Bulgarian monarchy survive?
 
Well post war Greek politics also seem to be a mess , though not nearly as much as Otl.
Given that Greece has now had a series of relatively effective coalition governments, I’d say it is much more mature and consensus-seeking than OTL, and there is no far-right deep state ITTL… That is, unless KKE does something stupid (can never know with Zachariadis) or the party landscape returns to a two party or a 2.5-party system which will again lead to polarisation.
 
well interesting things, the Greeks intervene in Yugoslavia to destroy Macedonia.

The Assyrians begin their journey to Lebanon, perhaps the Syrian Christians will accompany them, apparently they will not live well in Syria.

Another thing in Albania things seem close but we cannot forget that Hoxa is surrounded if the anti-communists ensure food and security they will win quickly
 
I’m honestly a bit surprised to see the Greek communists go down like this. They didn’t act particular unreasonable, just bad enough for the Liberals to get a no confidence vote through. If they’d allowed weapons to be sent abroad or been forceful against any concept of a Free Macedonia instead of pivoting they probably would have survived.
The had a real problem with not breaking the Moscow line more often than not. And we are not even two years away from the Greek army taking tens of thousands of casualties to kick the Bulgarians out. Ambiguity wouldn't play all that well with the public...
Over all the results of both civil wars are what would be expected so far. Since Serbia seems to already have the advantage of better and more equipment I wonder if we see most of the material go to Albania, while volunteers are allowed to go to Serbia since they seem like they could use more man power than equipment. While Monastir might be where Macedonia ends for your average Greek I could still see the border moving north somewhat with how badly Serbia needs help. Land is land and it would be nice if the city had a buffer in case of war.
A potential problem for Serbia is that they are much better equipped NOW, where they have an army mostly built on US Lend Lease while the communists aside from a core of Soviet equipment have a hodgepodge of former German, Italian and pre-war Yugoslav arms. But nothing stops the Soviets from remedying this providing military aid or Stalin being Stalin giving it for a price. After all the Soviets at the moment have literally mountains of artillery, tanks and aircraft around...
Nikos Zachariadis, totally incapable of recognising his side's strengths and weaknesses in any timeline, whether IOTL or IATL...
I'm shocked, shocked anything of the short could be done by comrade Nikos.
Well post war Greek politics also seem to be a mess , though not nearly as much as Otl.

Is Bulgaria still occupied militarily (If so what are the zones), or do they still have a standing army that can give it at least some influence in the region.
There are some Allied troops in Bulgaria nd they also have a standing army.
@Lascaris btw, did the Bulgarian monarchy survive?
There's a plebiscite coming on that.
Given that Greece has now had a series of relatively effective coalition governments, I’d say it is much more mature and consensus-seeking than OTL, and there is no far-right deep state ITTL… That is, unless KKE does something stupid (can never know with Zachariadis) or the party landscape returns to a two party or a 2.5-party system which will again lead to polarisation.
Greece now has baked in an electoral system that necessitates coalition governments. How practical this it going to turn out to be...
well interesting things, the Greeks intervene in Yugoslavia to destroy Macedonia.

The Assyrians begin their journey to Lebanon, perhaps the Syrian Christians will accompany them, apparently they will not live well in Syria.

Another thing in Albania things seem close but we cannot forget that Hoxa is surrounded if the anti-communists ensure food and security they will win quickly
He has access to the sea. Would the Soviets care to send supplies? That is something to be seen...
 
Speaking of which, how much would the Chetniks favoring a “Greater Serbia” with how they endorsed proposals for an Homogenous Serbia and all that over Yugoslavism affect the Civil War? I imagine that while willing to fight in Bosnia and Vojvodina, the Royalists would be fairly reluctant to take the war to Croatia with a sentiment the Reds could have Croatia and Slovenia for all they care while they construct their Greater Serbia and all that.
 
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There Great Serbia concept included a big part of Croatia. So they are likely to support a war to the point were Croatia is a rump state around Zagreb.
 
Part 174
Valona, January 11th, 1946

Ten thousand rifles and 68 artillery pieces begun getting unloaded from the Greek merchant ships. The rifles, had start life as Ottoman Mausers in another world before getting captured by the Greeks during the 1st Balkan war and the Asia Minor war. The artillery consisted of equally ancient Schneider and Krupp 75mm guns and a handful of Schneider 105mm heavy guns. But if obsolescent, the Greeks had replaced them as soon as American and British aid had start flowing in, they still worked. If Greek military aid affected Hoxha it didn't show as the same day he proclaimed the Albania People's Republic from Tirana.

Tokyo, January 19th, 1946

The trials of Japanese war criminals begun.

Paris, January 20th, 1946

Despite the advice of Georges Mandel Charles De Gaulle resigned from his position as premier.

Vietnam, January 26th, 1946

The first battle between the French army and Vietnamese rebels took place. From Saigon, former emperor Duy Tan, now back to Vietnam after decades of exile, would vocally criticize the French actions. Undeterred two weeks later the French would attack the Vietminh om Ben Tre province.

Moscow, February 9th, 1946

Josef Stalin gave a public speech over the radio declaring that a new war was inevitable due to the capitalist development of the world economy, and the Soviet Union would need to concentrate its efforts on national defense...

Off Palestine, February 16th, 1946

That the ship was flying the Greek flag hardly deterred the British coast guard from intercepting it. The nearly one thousand Jewish refugees aboard would end up in interment camps, outside Palestine. Palmach would retaliate three days later by burning down a cost guard station. But the British continued to try to stop Jewish immigration to Palestine, just as Jews tried to slip through the blockade...

Constantinople, February 20th, 1946

Maximos, metropolitan of Chalkedon became the new patriarch of Constantinople ending the wartime vacancy of the ecumenical see nearly five years since the exexution of Chrysanthos II.

Argentina, February 24th, 1946

Juan Peron won handily the presidential election. Vocal American support for the opposition had backfired with many voters preferring Peron in reaction. Peron's Argentina would soon become the destination for Europeans with reasons not to want to remain back in Europe if they did not want to find themselves permanently without a job, in prison, or in front of a firing squad. The Argentine government would actively recruit people ranging from Edward Dewoitine and Kurt Tank to Adolf Eichman...

Shkumbin river, Albania, March 3rd, 1946

Over twenty-five thousand nationalist soldiers attacked over the river in an attempt to take Elbasan. The LNC defenders actually were numerically superior but were rather more deficient in heavy weapons and artillery...

Over Belgrade, March 7th, 1946

A pair of Petlyakov Pe-2s went down. Moments later the JKRV Spitfire that had shot down them would go down in turn shot down by the JRV Yak-9s that were escorting the bombers. The JKRV had start the war with 214 modern aircraft and five years of war experience. JRV, its communist counterpart, had begun with slightly more, the Soviets had delivered 235 aircraft to it during the end of the war. But now Stalin had promised Tito a staggering 653 aircraft, Il-2, Pe-2 and Yak-1/3/9s, by the end of the year. The nationalists were not as lucky so far. America was aloof considering the civil war in Yugoslavia a British affair. And Britain so far was rather more stingent with its aid. 71 Spitfires were being delivered it was true...

Shkumbin river, Albania, March 19th, 1946

Spiro Moishu ordered a halt to the nationalist offensive. Despite heavy casualties on both sides his troops had failed to caprure Elbasan. His troops would dug in on their side of the river waiting for a better time...

Drina river, April 6th , 1946

The second battle of the Drina begun. The nationalists were well dug in and still had nearly five hudrend tanks available. But by now the Soviets had deliverd Tito, heavy artillery and 206 tanks among other equipment. The British had promised the nationalists 52 tanks but these had not been delivered yet. The only arms reaching Serbia had been what weapons the Greeks could spare...

Chicago, April 7th, 1946

The crowd, many of them Italian-Americans, rose in applause as Winston Churchill proclaimed in the presence of president Truman that "From Stettin in the Baltic to Fiume in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent."

Paris, April 17th, 1946

Somehow Marcel Bloch had survived for a year his release from Buchenwald. But the damage to his heath had proven too much...

Syria, April 17th, 1946

The country became officially independent. French and British troops had already left it over the previous weeks. But these had not happened before the French this time working together with the British had intervened to stop the Syrian and Kurdish attacks against the Assyrians and had moved them to Lebanon, their numbers swelled with twenty thousand more Assyrians from the Kurdish controlled Jazira province, where hopefully the Assyrians would be spared further attacks till their final fate could be arranged. Meanwhile Lebanon had proclaimed it own independence, to its north the Alawites had proclaimed their independence as well but the Sunnis had in turn proclaimed union with Syria. And of course Syrian Kurdistan was de facto already part of the Kurdish state but Damascus had not yet officially recognized this. And while the French might have left, they had made certain their former clients were well armed. It would prove a wise precaution...
 
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Paris, April 17th, 1946

Somehow Marcel Bloch had survived for a year his release from Buchenwald. But the damage to his heath had proven too much...
So that means no Dassault Aviation ITTL? :( 😭

Drina river, April 6th , 1946

The second battle of the Drina begun. The nationalists were well dug in and still had nearly five hudrend tanks available. But by now the Soviets had deliverd Tito, heavy artillery and 206 tanks among other equipment. The British had promised the nationalists 52 tanks but these had not been delivered yet. The only arms reaching Serbia had been what weapons the Greeks could spare...
The Yugoslavian Civil War might well turn into the equivalent of the Korean War ITTL. I wonder what do the Bulgarians think about it.

The Middle East is going to be an even more messier place than IOTL. Which makes Cyprus more precious to the British, as a place to monitor the evolving situation in the ME. Now if only the Greek government would be smart enough to propose to the British one an aggreement along the lines "you give us Cyprus after a transition period of 5 years and you keep 1-2 large military bases there. That way you will be spared the expenses of having a colony and keep the benefits." Perhaps they could add as a sweetener a more substantial Greek aid to the nationalists in Yugoslavia and in Albania.

Concerning weapons deliveries to the nationalists i bet the Spanish Army has a lot of extra equipment that is not needed. Perhaps a certain Greek weapons industry tycoon could act as an intermediary and acquire this weapons to give it somewhere in the Balkans...
 
Good updates, the situation in Albania looks like a prelude to further Greek annexations there and the puppetisation of whatever Albanian nationalist government emerge as winner.
How are things in western Anatolia? I have a feeling Greece is doing whatever it can to turn the ceasefire line into a permanent border. Assyrian refugees could find new homes there.
 
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