Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[phil03]

The one thing that strikes me here, although it is by no means unexpected on my end, is the discrepancy between Turkey and Greece as to where their casualties come from, with Turkey losing more soldiers and fewer civilians and Greece being the other way around. I have fate that Greece and Turkey will reconcile at some point ITTL ala France and Germany but those numbers will be a formidable obstacle in that path and are likely to come up every time there is some kind of incident between Athens and Sivas for a pretty long time...

On a different but related note, I do have a foreboding feeling that whatever Staline has in mind for Eastern Anatolia would mean that taking the short-term aftermath of the war into account in casualty counts would result in the civilian death tools of Greece and Turkey being far closer then if one only take account deaths in the war itself

 

[thekingsguard]

A post war breakdown is gonna be facinating.

 

[Lascaris]

Ontario, September 5th, 1945

The world's first nuclear reactor outside the United States went critical.

Germany, September 28th, 1945

George Patton had had a generally good war successfully leading American troops in North Africa, Greece, Italy and France. Now he publicly proclaimed he saw no reason for denazification, claimed the Nazi party was no different than American parties and even claimed the true enemy had been the Russians not the Germans. Eisenhower would have none of it and after Patton failed to retract his statements unceremoniously stripped him of his commands.

Rhodes, October 7th, 1945

Diagoras sports club had been forcibly disbanded by the Italian colonial authorities for pro-Greek activities in 1929. It had been reconstituted after the liberation of the island in 1940 but given wartime the Greek football championships were suspended. Now with the championship resumed the Dodecanese, like the other East Aegean islands had been made part of the Ionia local championship. Diagoras would play its first official game against Panionios. Not unsurprisingly it would lose against the much stronger Smyrniot team. But almost everyone cared more about finally being part of the Greek championship than winning.

Mosul, October 13th, 1945

While Kurdistan had been admitted into the United Nations, even though its exact borders were yet unspecified, Assyria had not as Arabia was refusing to accept Assyrian independence with king Abdullah offering autonomy instead. But the Assyrians had suffered to many massacred, not to mention a genocide, in the past generation to willingly trust Baghdad, after all the Simela massacres were barely a decade old. Assyria proclaimed its independence and asked for admission into the United Nations. Three days later the first units of the Arab Legion crossed the proclaimed Assyrian border. Skirmishes between Arab and Assyrian units would begin almost immediately.

Nuremberg, October 18th, 1945

The trials of the surviving German wartime leadership begun. Wever, Doenitz, Keitel, Speer were among the defendants.

Greece, October 21st, 1945

The first elections since 1940, the first with women participating and the first using proportional representation took place. The Liberals under the ailing George Kafandaris would come first with 32.01% of the vote and 80 seats. Dragumis National Radicals would come second with 23.24% and 58 seats. Stratos Conservative Reform party would beat Papandreou's Democratic Agrarian party with 18.18% and 45 seats to 13.12% and 33 seats. It would be closely trailed by KKE who would win 12.88% of the vote, more than twice its 1940 performance. But thanks to proportional representation while the communists had failed to win even a single seat in 1940 they had now won an unprecedented 32 seats in this election. Two more seats had been won by independent candidates. Now the question was how a government would be formed as no single party could form a majority on its own.

France, October 21st, 1945

The first elections since 1936 took place in France. Georges Mandel had advised De Gaulle to form his own party offering to help in its organization. De Gaulle had been intrigued but nothing had come out of it in time for the elections, which had been won with a large majority by the communist PCF, socialist SFIO and centrist MRP with each gaining about a quarter of the vote. De Gaulle would remain head of government with a coalition of the three parties supporting him as the newly elected constituent assembly begun debating the form of the constitution of the 4th republic.

 

[Pmanm]

Nice one, George. I wonder if he’s going to end up in a car crash like IRL or will he just disappear into obscurity.

Also what’s the current size of the Assyrian units and the Arab Legion?

 

[Whiteshore]

Nuremberg, October 18th, 1945

The trials of the surviving German wartime leadership begun. Wever, Doenitz, Keitel, Speer were among the defendants.

Who here is betting Wever, especially with Goering gone, ends up swinging from a rope owing to his actions in the USSR?

 

[Channel101Productions]

Mosul, October 13th, 1945

While Kurdistan had been admitted into the United Nations, even though its exact borders were yet unspecified, Assyria had not as Arabia was refusing to accept Assyrian independence with king Abdullah offering autonomy instead. But the Assyrians had suffered to many massacred, not to mention a genocide, in the past generation to willingly trust Baghdad, after all the Simela massacres were barely a decade old. Assyria proclaimed its independence and asked for admission into the United Nations. Three days later the first units of the Arab Legion crossed the proclaimed Assyrian border. Skirmishes between Arab and Assyrian units would begin almost immediately.

If this is anything like the first Arab-Israeli war, things are going to get messy

Is Israel going to come along sometime?

 

[Duke of Orlando]

George Patton had had a generally good war successfully leading American troops in North Africa, Greece, Italy and France. Now he publicly proclaimed he saw no reason for denazification, claimed the Nazi party was no different than American parties and even claimed the true enemy had been the Russians not the Germans. Eisenhower would have none of it and after Patton failed to retract his statements unceremoniously stripped him of his commands.

Patton is gonna Patton. Not surprised this happened again. If he avoids the car crash it could be interesting though. I could see whichever party doesn’t get Ike in 52 running Patton. Or vice versa if Patton moves early and Ike wants to stop him from becoming President.

Mosul, October 13th, 1945

While Kurdistan had been admitted into the United Nations, even though its exact borders were yet unspecified, Assyria had not as Arabia was refusing to accept Assyrian independence with king Abdullah offering autonomy instead. But the Assyrians had suffered to many massacred, not to mention a genocide, in the past generation to willingly trust Baghdad, after all the Simela massacres were barely a decade old. Assyria proclaimed its independence and asked for admission into the United Nations. Three days later the first units of the Arab Legion crossed the proclaimed Assyrian border. Skirmishes between Arab and Assyrian units would begin almost immediately.

Tragic but predictable. This has the possibility to drag on and annoy the Hashemite Kingdom for a while but this likely doesn’t amount to much sadly, unless Iran or the Kurds wants to get involved in some bigger fight with the Hashemites. Which I don’t see happening but that’s the one lifeline that seems reasonable.

It would be closely trailed by KKE who would win 12.88% of the vote, more than twice its 1940 performance. But thanks to proportional representation while the communists had failed to win even a single seat in 1940 they had now won an unprecedented 32 seats in this election. Two more seats had been won by independent candidates. Now the question was how a government would be formed as no single party could form a majority on its own.

Really interested to see if KKE tries to form a coalition or just gets ignored by the rest. It might present an example for other Balkan Nations to try to work with their communists instead of trying to purge them. It probably doesn’t but it could be interesting.

Who here is betting Wever, especially with Goering gone, ends up swinging from a rope owing to his actions in the USSR?

I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Especially because from that list Wever is probably the biggest fish tied with Speer.

 

[Aristomenes]

Poor Assyrians, unless smt drastic happens, they will fight ferociously but they will fail in the end.

Greece, October 21st, 1945

The first elections since 1940, the first with women participating and the first using proportional representation took place. The Liberals under the ailing George Kafandaris would come first with 32.01% of the vote and 80 seats. Dragumis National Radicals would come second with 23.24% and 58 seats. Stratos Conservative Reform party would beat Papandreou's Democratic Agrarian party with 18.18% and 45 seats to 13.12% and 33 seats. It would be closely trailed by KKE who would win 12.88% of the vote, more than twice its 1940 performance. But thanks to proportional representation while the communists had failed to win even a single seat in 1940 they had now won an unprecedented 32 seats in this election. Two more seats had been won by independent candidates. Now the question was how a government would be formed as no single party could form a majority on its own.

The Liberals and the National Radicals had a productive co-operation for many years,they could co-operate again. But Kafandaris can not be the Prime Minister due to his health problems.
The parliament has 250 seats, so 126 seats are required for a majority.
I wonder too about what will be the case with KKE. Will the communists be willing to participate in any coalition? Will the other parties be inclined to let them participate? Is KKE less Soviet-leaning than IOTL?

 

[Whiteshore]

I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Especially because from that list Wever is probably the biggest fish tied with Speer.

In addition, the crimes of his boss could be easily pinned on him and the Luftwaffe was the most Nazified of the Wehrmacht’s branches (this is not to deny the crimes of the Heer or the Kriegsmarine, but it IIRC was seen as the most Nazified branch of the military), especially as Keitel and Jodl likewise enjoyed necktie parties.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Eisenhower said at the time that he hadn't fired Patton for what he had said but for what he was going to say next.

 

[Tsouk225]

I am curious on if the Kurds join in on the Assyrian side. I mean, its only been a few decades since the Kurdish participation in the Assyrian massacres, but they likely recognize that there are bigger fish. Plus, the oilfields would be nice to have for the Kurds.

At the same time, while Kurdistan is currently british allied, I do see their relations souring in the 50s much like the other British "Equal allies" in the ME (Egypt, Iraq etc). I don't see them going pan-Arabist/Baathist for obvious reasons. But something like modern day Rojava would be interesting to see.

 

[Quinkana]

I am curious on if the Kurds join in on the Assyrian side. I mean, its only been a few decades since the Kurdish participation in the Assyrian massacres, but they likely recognize that there are bigger fish. Plus, the oilfields would be nice to have for the Kurds.

At the same time, while Kurdistan is currently british allied, I do see their relations souring in the 50s much like the other British "Equal allies" in the ME (Egypt, Iraq etc). I don't see them going pan-Arabist/Baathist for obvious reasons. But something like modern day Rojava would be interesting to see.

I hope the Kurds help. After all I think it'd benefit them more than letting the Arabs be there. Same with Iran, where having a buffer state between them and the Arabs.

Also I don't see the British liking the start of hostilities anyways, so they may let the Kurds have more leeway than normal. I think the main thing here would be that Israel may or may not pop up here too, which would be interesting.

Also with Greece going to the polls with PR I'm not surprised that the Communists get a foothold. It would make politics interesting at least.

 

[Sphenodon]

Mosul, October 13th, 1945

While Kurdistan had been admitted into the United Nations, even though its exact borders were yet unspecified, Assyria had not as Arabia was refusing to accept Assyrian independence with king Abdullah offering autonomy instead. But the Assyrians had suffered to many massacred, not to mention a genocide, in the past generation to willingly trust Baghdad, after all the Simela massacres were barely a decade old. Assyria proclaimed its independence and asked for admission into the United Nations. Three days later the first units of the Arab Legion crossed the proclaimed Assyrian border. Skirmishes between Arab and Assyrian units would begin almost immediately.

Well then. Alea iacta est.

Depending on what the Kurds do, this has further potential to blow up - if they decide to annex the north, they'll risk running afoul of Iraq's official claims despite being recognized. So in theory it's in the interest of the Powers That Be that they don't get involved, and this ends either with a reaffirmation of Iraqi claims or them having to swallow accepting the independence of this particular part of their turf.

This would be an interesting time for Iran to flex its muscles. I'm supposing there remain various Allied military forces across the Near East at this point, and of those I would figure the Iranians are likely to have the most men near northern Iraq. Given that future Kurdistan is almost certain to be a British ally/protectorate and Iraq also basically is, the Assyrians represent the least suspicious buffer option while also having the fewest claims on Iranian sovereign soil.

The Kurds paradoxically supporting the region's independence also isn't the unlikeliest turn of affairs either (or, at least, one that makes an amount of sense in realpolitik terms). Between the hefty Kurdish population of the region and even a maximal Assyria being far smaller than Iraq, Kurdistan would barring a population exchange retain potential for a significant amount of influence in an independent Assyria compared with trying to get some over an Iraqi Mosul, while also getting a buffer state against Baghdad in the process. Though this is in purely strategic terms - in PR terms, the public of both probably aren't keen on working with one another at all.

Then there's the Brits. Now what might they find themselves up to in this quagmire among their notional allies ?

 

[Lascaris]

Nice one, George. I wonder if he’s going to end up in a car crash like IRL or will he just disappear into obscurity.

If he lives, which he should, how likely is a car crash 25 years post-POD? senator McCarthy likely would have uses for a war hero would he not?

Who here is betting Wever, especially with Goering gone, ends up swinging from a rope owing to his actions in the USSR?

Donitz escaped. Then Donitz was not terror bombing allied capitals.

If this is anything like the first Arab-Israeli war, things are going to get messy

Is Israel going to come along sometime?

The British mandate of Palestine ends in 1948. What happens then...

Patton is gonna Patton. Not surprised this happened again. If he avoids the car crash it could be interesting though. I could see whichever party doesn’t get Ike in 52 running Patton. Or vice versa if Patton moves early and Ike wants to stop him from becoming President.

I can't really see Patton as a Democratic candidate.

Tragic but predictable. This has the possibility to drag on and annoy the Hashemite Kingdom for a while but this likely doesn’t amount to much sadly, unless Iran or the Kurds wants to get involved in some bigger fight with the Hashemites. Which I don’t see happening but that’s the one lifeline that seems reasonable.

Abdullah first made a treaty with the Kurds. He can't get back Iraqi Kurdistan, not with Barzani running the show in Diyarbakir and the Kurds being militarily stronger. He CAN likely beat the Assyrians if there is no external involvement.

Really interested to see if KKE tries to form a coalition or just gets ignored by the rest. It might present an example for other Balkan Nations to try to work with their communists instead of trying to purge them. It probably doesn’t but it could be interesting.

Bulgaria has a very strong communist party which in the past worked with the Agrarians. Romania... well Romania is Soviet occupied. Albania and Yugoslavia... the communists have their own large armies there.

The Liberals and the National Radicals had a productive co-operation for many years,they could co-operate again. But Kafandaris can not be the Prime Minister due to his health problems.

Poor health or not Kafandaris likely WANTS to be prime minister. He had been the number two man of Venizelos for decades. He accepted lesser men, Stratos anyone? as prime ministers during the war years when his was the largest party for the good of the country. Why he should have himself passed for the top position again?

The parliament has 250 seats, so 126 seats are required for a majority.

I wonder too about what will be the case with KKE. Will the communists be willing to participate in any coalition? Will the other parties be inclined to let them participate? Is KKE less Soviet-leaning than IOTL?

The OTL Sofoulis-Sklavainas agreement is a decade in the past and TTL Greece has had relatively less tumultuous politics after the 1924 failed Royalist coup. If you want to get funny remember Dragoumis OTL writings about the communists prior to his death and what communists like Kordatos were writing about Dragoumis...

In addition, the crimes of his boss could be easily pinned on him and the Luftwaffe was the most Nazified of the Wehrmacht’s branches (this is not to deny the crimes of the Heer or the Kriegsmarine, but it IIRC was seen as the most Nazified branch of the military), especially as Keitel and Jodl likewise enjoyed necktie parties.

That the Luftwaffe was terror bombing London, not to mention Athens, Warsaw and Moscow hardly helps his case. Of course Wever can copy Donitz and as for Bomber Harris and Curtis LeMay as defense witnesses. If bombing Athenian neighborhoods was a war crime and Walthershould dance from a noose for it why was the RAF sending thousand bomber raids after German cities?

Eisenhower said at the time that he hadn't fired Patton for what he had said but for what he was going to say next.

I wonder what is his likely future military career... assuming he has one. Today the US has a mandatory retirement age at 64, George would reach it in 1949. Then Dugout Doug was leading troops in Korea at 70.

I am curious on if the Kurds join in on the Assyrian side. I mean, its only been a few decades since the Kurdish participation in the Assyrian massacres, but they likely recognize that there are bigger fish. Plus, the oilfields would be nice to have for the Kurds.

They have signed an agreement with Baghdad and Abdullah moved only after it. Now whether they necessarily keep to it...

Also I don't see the British liking the start of hostilities anyways, so they may let the Kurds have more leeway than normal. I think the main thing here would be that Israel may or may not pop up here too, which would be interesting.

They may not like it but the Hashemites have been their loyal ally since the previous war. Now the same can be said of the Assyrians, but did that stop them from throwing the Assyrians under the bus? Nope. So with whom are British interests here? Their faithful large Arab ally or their faithful little ally?

Well then. Alea iacta est.

Depending on what the Kurds do, this has further potential to blow up - if they decide to annex the north, they'll risk running afoul of Iraq's official claims despite being recognized. So in theory it's in the interest of the Powers That Be that they don't get involved, and this ends either with a reaffirmation of Iraqi claims or them having to swallow accepting the independence of this particular part of their turf.

The Kurdish north is run by the Kurds since 1941. By now its a fait accompli, one backed by an army of over 60,000.

This would be an interesting time for Iran to flex its muscles. I'm supposing there remain various Allied military forces across the Near East at this point, and of those I would figure the Iranians are likely to have the most men near northern Iraq. Given that future Kurdistan is almost certain to be a British ally/protectorate and Iraq also basically is, the Assyrians represent the least suspicious buffer option while also having the fewest claims on Iranian sovereign soil.

Iranian intervention could get interesting. Not least because while notionally allies the British are not really happy with having to make a deal along Saudi lines for Iranian oil back in 1941. And what is the sole Kurdish population not controlled by Kurdistan at the moment?

 

[phil03]

I do think that win or loose there will be a pretty hefty price to pay for Abdullah and his prospective Arab allies on this one.

Essentially, my take is that there two very strong differences with how the Middle-East as a whole is perceived by the victorious Allied powers compared to OTL:

I. Rachid Ali and his regime in Iraq have done far more damage to the cause of Arab nationalism then OTL. In OTL the Anglo-Iraqi war could be quickly written off as just another odd and short-lived episode in a world at war and appart from the Yishuv/Israel it as was pretty much in every players in the area's best interest to do so. Although with hindsight the quasi destruction the destruction of the Iraqi armed forces cost the Arab cause dearly during the 1948-49 war.

The fighting in the area lasting far longer than OTL and troops of other Axis powers having taken part in large numbers will ensure this won't be the case ITTL. How much a milestone the memory of Rachid Ali and co will be for Arab nationalists ITTL at home and abroad remains to be seen but IMO there will be a cost for it, especially in the immediate aftermath of the war. Abdullah attacking a fellow Allied power as soon as the war is over is obviously not going to help in that regard (1).

II. Turkey's participation in the war as an Axis most likely means that world opinion cares significantly more about the fate of Middle-Eastern Christians then OTL. In that context attacking the Assyrians in 1946 will cost Abdullah A LOT of the goodwill he gathered as *the* most preeminent Allied Arab leader of the war. This will make it hard for him to replace much of the hardware that he will spend, even in victory.

Combine these factors with the fact that attacking the Assyrians is bound to cause some serious concerns in Lebanon, which I believe has a significant higher proportion of Christians then OTL due to some of the policies of the French mandate if my memory serve me well, and it isn't hard to see how this would boost the position of an ITTL Israel quite significantly a few years later.

(1) For the record, people like Rashid Ali were far outnumbered by thinkers and politicians who, even if they were often not shy about their grievances against their colonial masters in Paris and London, were pro-Allied in OTL. I don't see why this would be different ITTL. The issue is more how Rashid Ali and his regime will affect international perceptions on the diplomatic stage.

 

[Whiteshore]

I. Rachid Ali and his regime in Iraq have done far more damage to the cause of Arab nationalism then OTL. In OTL the Anglo-Iraqi could be quickly written off as just another odd and short-lived episode in a world at war and appart from the Yishuv/Israel it as was pretty much in every players in the area's best interest to do so. Although with hindsight the quasi destruction the destruction of the Iraqi armed forces cost the Arab cause dearly during the 1948-49 war.

The fighting in the area lasting far longer than OTL and troops of other Axis powers having taken part in large numbers will ensure this won't be the case ITTL. How much a milestone the memory of Rachid Ali and co will be for Arab nationalists ITTL at home and abroad remains to be seen but IMO there will be a cost for it, especially in the immediate aftermath of the war.

On that note, I could see conservative monarchies do better than OTL at maintaining their thrones as a result of how they could easily present themselves to the West as bulwarks against radicals as opposed to how, aside from the Gulf Monarchies, only the Jordanian and Moroccan monarchies are still around.

 

[phil03]

On that note, I could see conservative monarchies do better than OTL at maintaining their thrones as a result of this.

Potentially, although if the ITTL version of the 1948-49 war goes worst then they'll have an harder ten years after it or so then OTL...

On the other, other hand, having Abdullah looming larger in the Arab world then OTL is likely to be a boon for conservative monarchies as well.

 

[Lascaris]

Iraq, October 22nd, 1945

The skirmishing between Assyrian and Arab troops had escalated to an all out assault by the Arab Legion on Assyrian positions. Despite being outnumbered by more than two to one the Assyrians were fighting back hard giving up ground only very slowly. But Abdullah had secured British induference if not tacit support presenting the issue as an internal Arabian matter...

Sofia, Ovtober 26th, 1945

Widespread rioting between royalists and supporters of the commusist and Agrarian parties erupted. Elections for a constituent assebly were due in three weeks. A decision on the future on the monarchy was due but far more hazy, with everyone waiting for the results of the elections first.

Athens, October 27th, 1945

Forming a new government after the election had proven less than straightforward. Having come first in a second consecutive election George Kafandaris had been less than willing to step down again from the premiership. He had quicly secured the support of the other Venizelist party in parliament, Papandreou's Democratic Agrarians. But between them the two parties had 113 seats, 13 short from a majority. And there the problems had begun. Dragoumis also wanted to return to the premiership so was not willing to work together with the Liberals instead trying to create his own coalition. Stratos was willing to cooperate but prior to the election was heading a coalition government with the Venizelists. If the coalition was to continue he argued it should be only natural that he remained the prime minister. And thus the Venizelists had begun reluctantly negotiating with the communists... only to be beaten to the punch by Dragoumis. Political commentators would note after the fact Dregoumis writings friendly to socialism as early as 1920 and writings of communists intellectuals like Giannis Kordatos appreciating Dragoumis just as old. But this would not make the surprise any less. And thus Ion Dragoumis would form his third government in coalition with Stratos and KKE. The communists would get four out of the governments 16 ministries, though none of the three war ministries.

Cairo, November 2nd, 1945

Riots against the Jewish community of the city erupted on the anniversary of the Balfour declaration. They would quickly spread to Alexandria and then beyond the Egyptian border to Aleppo and Libya. In Libya they would go completely out of hand with more than 120 Jews killed.

Diyarbakir, November 5th, 1945

Thomas Edward Lawrence came bearing gifts, or at least assurances from king Abdullah that no matter what happened to the Assyrians the agreeements in place between Arabia and Kurdistan fully applied. The Kurdish leadership, never exactly known for its friendly feelings for Assyrians, Kurdish militias had played a starring role in the Assyrian genocide a generation earier did not need much to be persuaded.

Yugoslavia, November 11th, 1945

The first elections since 1938 took place in Yugoslavia. The results... left a few things to be desired. In Montenegro and the pre-1918 Serbian kingdom, areas under the control of the Royal Yugoslav army, the communists had gotten all of 12% of the vote. In the rest of Yugoslavia, under the control of the People's army the communists had gotten over 90% of the vote. Not unsurprisingly accusations of widespread fraud would start flying from both the communists and the nationalists, the later dominated by the Democratic and Radical parties. Both sides accusations were true if to different degrees...

Bulgaria, November 18th, 1945

The first democratic elections since 1931 took place. The Agrarians would secure a clear victory with 46.1% of the vote with the Bulgarian communist party getting 21.45%, the right wing Democratic party 20.8%, the liberals 5%, socialists 3%, Zveno 2% and IMRO 1.6%. Muraviev would form a new govenment.

 

[NotBigBrother]

Yugoslavia, November 11th, 1945

The first elections since 1938 took place in Yugoslavia. The results... left a few things to be desired. In Montenegro and the pre-1918 Serbian kingdom, areas under the control of the Royal Yugoslav army, the communists had gotten all of 12% of the vote. In the rest of Yugoslavia, under the control of the People's army the communists had gotten over 90% of the vote. Not unsurprisingly accusations of widespread fraud would start flying from both the communists and the nationalists, the later dominated by the Democratic and Radical parties. Both sides accusations were true if to different degrees...

Of course it's fraud. In the Soviet elections communist candidates always had 99.9*% of votes with 99.9*% voter participation. Just over 90% cann't be right.

 

[Xenophonte]

Despite being outnumbered by more than two to one the Assyrians were fighting back hard giving up ground only very slowly. But Abdullah had secured British induference if not tacit support presenting the issue as an internal Arabian matter...

I wonder what would be the Soviet reaction to this event... And, if, perhaps, this would be seen for the Soviets as a prime opportunity to intervene directly or not and help to reduce the Western/British influence in the region while securing on the Assyrians an ally/puppet of their own...