If the Turkish ships are based in the Sea of Marmara (Golcuk was the new base OTL I believe) or somewhere on the Black Sea coast, that should be pretty easy to do.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
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The whole Marmara region is demilitarized by treaty, so cannot be hosting a naval base. The obvious base for Turkey under the circumstances for war with Greece would be Marmaris, the modern Aksaz naval base. Of course that is part of the zone of Italian control...
Question, will the Turkish naval contracts with Italy noticeably impact the Italian economy? Because the turkish government has given the Italian government and ship building industries tens of millions of Liras, and that money has to go somewhere. Though then again, responsible budgeting and Fascist regimes don't go together.
I don't think that the Italians will allow Marmaris to be developed as a turkish naval base, even if they are (semi)allies. Not in peacetime anyway. I think that leaves Antalya as the only potential turkish naval base. Antalya will need quite a bit of investments to be developed in a major port that will also service the anatolian economy. Not to mention a railroad is needed to be built to connect the port with the anatolian network. If infrastructure money go there, then some other otl interwar infrastructure won't be built.
Not much. So far overall Italy has received fewer contracts than OTL. They have got Fatih, call it 1.5 million pounds, but the have not gotten the 4 Greek destroyers from OTL (1.088 million) nor the 4 Destroyers and 2 subs from Turkey (1.715 million). So they are, for now, down by about 1.2 million in foreign orders although that's only a fraction of domestic orders.
No they will, likely not allow it but the Italians are building a base there, for their own needs. For Turkey the most logical place is Mersin with Antalya as a forward base in case of war.
Marmaris is a great harbor, far better than any other bay in the region.
Since the Italians are investing in Marmaris, how do they develop its hinterland? Settlers, railroad, raw material exploitation etc.
In that case, which is the port that services the anatolian economy? I doubt Turkey will continue using Smyrna as its major entreport.
"Italian Caria" is an odd one, technically it is still Turkish territory with a referendum to take place in 1942 or so. Some limited settlement is happening... post that Italy needs also to decide what it really wants to do with it. Do they really want an Anatolian colony? Do they want an allied/satellite Turkey while grabbing territory off Greece (and Yugoslavia) and are willing to return Caria if they still control economic concessions and military bases there? Both? This is a question that sooner or later will be making itself very much felt.
As of 1930 the only new railroads added are Sivas to Kayseri ans Kayseri to Kardeşgediği where it meets the existing Baghdad railway. So Sivas (TTL the capital) and Kayseri are both having an outlet at Mersin at the moment. So do Ankara and Konya although in their case the other end of the railroad is at Izmit, which makes also an excellent port after all it was taking away traffic from Smyrna even before the war. Next should come a rail connection between Ankara and Kayseri better linking the two networks and a Sivas-Samsun railway giving an outlet to the Black sea.
As mentioned not allowed by the Washington Naval treaty. Article 18 "Each of the Contracting Powers undertakes not to dispose by gift, sale or any mode of transfer of any vessel of war in such a manner that such vessel may become a vessel of war in the Navy of any foreign Power." Now if someone can make a convincing argument why Britain should maintain a single 13.5in battlecruiser after the treaty of London, giving up one of the R class BBs, this is the right time to do so... but it seems to me the British tried to standardize at 15in plus the 16in ships.
Passable. Very recently the Soviets actually sold a bunch of heavy artillery to Turkey and there is a pro-Soviet faction in the assembly. This remains though on both side something of a marriage of convenience. The Soviets don't want Turkey in the British orbit and are concerned about the British local pawn, that is Greece, but at the same time the two have... history to put it mildly. Same on the Turkish side.
True, I had forgotten that a .276 version of the Garand had been created for this trial, but this is after the 1924, 26, 27, and 28 trials which had it be chambered for 30-06, and it was Garand's work on the .276 prototype that was then also scaled up to (30-06 developed in parallel in case something like what in otl happened, happened which Pederson hadn't) that helped him win over the Pederson rifle due to greater simplicity (less points of failure and reduced chance for problems developing) and reduced cost.
Honestly, its really the cost that I believe will still sink the .276 cartridge as, re-looking at my sources, even though .276 Garand came inches from being adopted as both army and cavalry loved it due to reduced weight and recoil with no loss in military effectiveness. After all, It was cost in otl that caused McArthur to reject the round as the both the BAR and machine guns the army used all used 30-06 and either introducing a second ammo type to logistics or redesigning those guns to fit the new round would require money the army just doesn't have at the time.
Of course, with Pederson in the states he may have been able to compete with Garand longer and potentially talk down McArthur's ultimate veto of his cartridge, you are the author after all and unlikelier things in arms procurement have happened. But with the US Army, cost is the ultimate bugbear that I'm not sure can be gotten over. Either way, the .276 Garand is an interesting thought and could be one of those fun differences with the timeline.
Were the Greeks of Caria included in the population exchange or do they still live there? Whats the current demographic composition of that land? Would it be too much for Greece to claim it when and if Turkey makes the mistake of siding with Italy and Germany during alt-WWII?
I think Italian Caria could be a legitimate target for annexation after the war. The cornerstone of post-war greek security would be the total control of the Aegean and being able to project power towards Cyprus that will become the main focus of the greek diplomacy (barring Constantinople). Caria and the Marmaris naval base secure both strategic objectives.
The .276 Garand is clearly the superior of the two, Pedersen's best hope would be for his cartridge to be adopted. Could it be adopted? It certainly came pretty close in OTL. And the argument for the existing ammo stocks is somewhat problematic if the .30 Garand can't use it in the first place...
They were not. Back in 1921 it had 54,000 Greeks and 238,000 Turks. Now IF Turkey sides with the axis and is defeated, population balances did not much matter in a quarter of the territory of Germany being annexed by Poland and the Soviet Union...
The obvious play for Greek diplomats to redress the population balance in any claim to the area would be counting Caria and the Dodecanese as a single geographic area... given its 129,000 people in 1936 were overwelmingly Greek... you turn the 54 to 238 imbalance to a rather more presentable 180 to 241...
True it didn't, but Germany got the treatment she did out of Soviet wish for revenge and the need to compensate Poland for the land lost to Stalin. All of these will not apply to Greece and Turkey. And then we have to add to those 238000 Turks the many more that are going to be expelled from Constantinople (unless you are planning on giving it back to the Turks or keeping it international). Sure the Turks can't say no in case of defeat but the Greeks will still need the diplomatic support of the great powers to move the frontier further South/East. But as you just said the overwhelming Greek majority in the Dodecanese could definitely help here ( assuming everyone agrees to see it the way the Greeks do). Anyway can't wait to see how alt WWII develops there.
Seeing that the voting for the best timelines has started, here is the reasons why I voted this one.
It seems to me that the author has not only researched through a lot of material but he also used primary sources, something very rare outside of academia.
Secondly, the timeline was reviewed by professor Travlos and some details were changed according to his comments. This is a timeline based on the Greco-Turkish War and professor Travlos of Ozyegin University is one of the pre-eminent academics on the topic in the world.
How many timelines can make similar claims?
It seems to me that the author has not only researched through a lot of material but he also used primary sources, something very rare outside of academia.
Secondly, the timeline was reviewed by professor Travlos and some details were changed according to his comments. This is a timeline based on the Greco-Turkish War and professor Travlos of Ozyegin University is one of the pre-eminent academics on the topic in the world.
How many timelines can make similar claims?
None ever accused me of my engineering/research skills being sub-par. Writing ability? That's a different matter.
Many excellent timelines this year. Lets see the best win!
I have actually done some research on the possibility, Marinelli is in Argentina since 1905 and if I understand things correctly he attempted to shoot Yrigoyen for what mostly amounts to Argentine internal politics. So the attempt likely happens.Has the President of Argentina Hipolito Yrigoyen been assassinated ITTL in December 1929 by an Italian anarchist, unlike OTL?
Does it succeed? I haven't been given or found a compelling reason it should... nor the reverse. So what do our members that are better versed into Argentine history say?
Has the President of Argentina Hipolito Yrigoyen been assassinated ITTL in December 1929 by an Italian anarchist, unlike OTL?
Well, while, perhaps, I could have missed something, but I fail to see, as would be possible that TTL events/buterflies could have led to any changes in the life or particularly, in the way that G. Marinelli planned and executed his Magnicide attempt... Or even how would be affected the Argentine president security services forewarning and/or the specific security measures that were taken in OTL, for any kind of attempt against the president's life...
Though, If so, if missed something or disagree with my take on this, I would like that let me know about it...
The only thing that I can think of that could affect presidential security, maybe, is the assassination of Damat Ferid pasha in 1921 and the attempted assassination of Venizelos in 1924. Both of which if anything would point towards increased presidential security. Of course by the same token you could argue that Marinelli would know the details on the failed attack on Venizelos (assassins attack his car) and adapt his act accordingly. Or that he's luckier when he takes aim after all he did would two men did he not?
In strictly meta terms while I'm not shy about throwing in butterflies, I'm not changing things just for the shake of changing them. Keeping air accidents for example unchanged over decades is arguably problematic (unless you are say Jose Sanjuro and have a propensity to overload planes). Not changing someone like Marinelli when there is no compelling reason to do so something else entirely. Soo... do I have a compelling reason to want to alter things? If not in terms of plausibility then for story reasons? Does Yrigoyen being shot for example mean you avoid Uriburu's coup in September 1930 with Martinez in power?
The thing is that, according to all the info. available, he was a kind of lone wolf and that he was to great lengths to prepare himself and to leave protected his family welfare, before to place himself in position to attempt to fire upon the Argentine president's car.
But, IMO, he failed cause, the president wasn't alone in the car cabin, but rather with his security chief and his personal physician and especially very near were posted a policeman as part of an the security precautions before the strong hints that the president would be going to be targeted by Anarchists...
About the possible, consequences of a successful attempt, and beside of the very probable bloody and indiscriminate reprisals again the known and suspected anarchists...