its more that I think the Soviet leaders would be more wary of Greek orthodoxy ittl because of their relative power ittl due to Greece regaining constantinople.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Sure. But still what will the flock of this church be? Just Greeks in the Greek Republic and International Zone and the rest of the world. Not much bigger. Sure the Patriarch will have more prestige, but the national churches will be still jealous of their autokefali, and the anti-hellenism was a powerful trend in the Slavic churches since the 1800s.
The biggest impact ATL might be union with the British Anglicans. This came very close to happening. Also perhaps the Patriarchate is able to re-intergrate the Bulgarian exarchate as a autokefalous bishopric rather than a fully independent Patriarchate (this of course could backfire).
The biggest impact ATL might be union with the British Anglicans. This came very close to happening. Also perhaps the Patriarchate is able to re-intergrate the Bulgarian exarchate as a autokefalous bishopric rather than a fully independent Patriarchate (this of course could backfire).
How would union with British Anglicans likely unfold in the post-war ATL?
Part 136
Evangelismos hospital, December 5th, 1943
Even at normal times, security around the wing of the hospital housing George Kafandaris, the head of the Greek Liberal party, for the past several months would had been tight. Now the place was virtually teeming with heavily armed men carrying everything from pistols to sub-machine guns and automatic rifles, as half a dozen men more men came in the middle of night, ostensibly to visit the increasingly ill Kafandaris. Present were Stratos and Papandreou, as were Sophoklis Venizelos and Pangalos. Anyone who knew what had transpired earlier in the day with Churchill and Roosevelt would have little doubt why the heads of all the parties in in parliament, communists excepted and the head or the army were gathered here.
"We all agree, a plebiscite would be risky. Very risky. It's not 1941. We cannot expect the Armenians will be overwhelmingly voting for union with Greece. Not with the Soviets exerting at least some influence on them. And by all accounts our people took more casualties than the Turks in Constantinople. We don't have exact numbers, but I don't think we'll like them when we liberate the City. We should go for the Free City." Stratos finally said.
"You mean, I, should take the option and take the fall for it."
"Well you are the prime minister are you not? Back in 32 when I was prime minister, I also took the hard decisions leaving the gold standard..."
"My father would had grabbed onto the deal with both hands and secured concessions elsewhere. We can secure the City in due time"
"But I am not your father. I was never your father to think of Greek lands and populations as if they were so many pieces in a chessboard or so many pieces of merchandise to exchange as needed. I am a man of ideas!"
"My father tripled Greece. Results speak for themselves."
Dragoumis gave a shrug. "Theodore can we take the City and hold it on our own?"
"Presumably with the Soviets being hostile and the Yanks and British at best leaving us out to dry? The army would not need a head to lead it, it would need an undertaker. Find someone else to bury it and the country along with it. I'd rather resign."
"Perhaps you are right. Not perhaps. You are right. But I'd also rather resign than be the prime minister who took the deal. Find another prime minister."
The other political leaders looked uncomfortably at each other. They had not anticipated this. And if Dragoumis was resigning someone had to replace him and none of them was very happy with the idea of having to deal with that particular hot potato. And besides the resignation had to be fed to the public in some convenient way that did not affect the country's morale in the middle of wartime...
Athens, December 5th, 1943
"George Kafandaris resigns from government citing health reasons. The deputy prime minister had been ill for the past several months. Prime minister states that with his coalition partner having to resign and the parliament's term having expired, it would not be appropriate for him to remain on his own in power, suggests his replacement by national unity government till new elections can be held." newspaper headlines proclaimed.
British embassy, December 6th, 1943
Winston Churchill poured himself another scotch. Mr Venizelos would had avoided the drama but he couldn't really blame Mr Dragoumis. After all, when all was said and done he had taken the correct decision and had the moral courage to resign his position afterwards. He would extend his stay in Athens to be present for the new prime minister's inauguration...
Parliament building, December 7th, 1943
Aristeides Stergiadis former high commissioner of Greece in Smyrna and Constantinople was inaugurated as the new prime minister of Greece at the head of a national unity government of the four main parliamentary parties...
Even at normal times, security around the wing of the hospital housing George Kafandaris, the head of the Greek Liberal party, for the past several months would had been tight. Now the place was virtually teeming with heavily armed men carrying everything from pistols to sub-machine guns and automatic rifles, as half a dozen men more men came in the middle of night, ostensibly to visit the increasingly ill Kafandaris. Present were Stratos and Papandreou, as were Sophoklis Venizelos and Pangalos. Anyone who knew what had transpired earlier in the day with Churchill and Roosevelt would have little doubt why the heads of all the parties in in parliament, communists excepted and the head or the army were gathered here.
"We all agree, a plebiscite would be risky. Very risky. It's not 1941. We cannot expect the Armenians will be overwhelmingly voting for union with Greece. Not with the Soviets exerting at least some influence on them. And by all accounts our people took more casualties than the Turks in Constantinople. We don't have exact numbers, but I don't think we'll like them when we liberate the City. We should go for the Free City." Stratos finally said.
"You mean, I, should take the option and take the fall for it."
"Well you are the prime minister are you not? Back in 32 when I was prime minister, I also took the hard decisions leaving the gold standard..."
"My father would had grabbed onto the deal with both hands and secured concessions elsewhere. We can secure the City in due time"
"But I am not your father. I was never your father to think of Greek lands and populations as if they were so many pieces in a chessboard or so many pieces of merchandise to exchange as needed. I am a man of ideas!"
"My father tripled Greece. Results speak for themselves."
Dragoumis gave a shrug. "Theodore can we take the City and hold it on our own?"
"Presumably with the Soviets being hostile and the Yanks and British at best leaving us out to dry? The army would not need a head to lead it, it would need an undertaker. Find someone else to bury it and the country along with it. I'd rather resign."
"Perhaps you are right. Not perhaps. You are right. But I'd also rather resign than be the prime minister who took the deal. Find another prime minister."
The other political leaders looked uncomfortably at each other. They had not anticipated this. And if Dragoumis was resigning someone had to replace him and none of them was very happy with the idea of having to deal with that particular hot potato. And besides the resignation had to be fed to the public in some convenient way that did not affect the country's morale in the middle of wartime...
Athens, December 5th, 1943
"George Kafandaris resigns from government citing health reasons. The deputy prime minister had been ill for the past several months. Prime minister states that with his coalition partner having to resign and the parliament's term having expired, it would not be appropriate for him to remain on his own in power, suggests his replacement by national unity government till new elections can be held." newspaper headlines proclaimed.
British embassy, December 6th, 1943
Winston Churchill poured himself another scotch. Mr Venizelos would had avoided the drama but he couldn't really blame Mr Dragoumis. After all, when all was said and done he had taken the correct decision and had the moral courage to resign his position afterwards. He would extend his stay in Athens to be present for the new prime minister's inauguration...
Parliament building, December 7th, 1943
Aristeides Stergiadis former high commissioner of Greece in Smyrna and Constantinople was inaugurated as the new prime minister of Greece at the head of a national unity government of the four main parliamentary parties...
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Oh my God! Did not expect this. But makes sense. No Catastrophe, Stergiadis is probably the second most respected Greek politician outside Greece. Incorruptible, inflexible, intemperate. Yeah who else to take the poison bill.
So Greece is going for the "International City" option but with the long term objective of changing the facts on the ground over time by controlling the hinterland either side of Constantinople. It's the smart move - in due course the British and Americans will likely want to give up their zones which will lead to a Greek administered "West Constantinople" and once the USSR collapses they can absorb the Soviet zone as well. It will take fifty years but eventually Greece will win it all, and in the short term by "giving up" on the number one teratorial claim they can probably win concessions elsewhere.
Greece really should send lobbyists to the WAllies at best in order to give them convincing arguments to let them take the city so that they’ll actually consider giving support. If I were in the Greek leadership I’d do that.
Also regardless of what happened in the 1800s I think it’s safe to say that the city’s recovery by Greece will still be celebrated by the Slavic churches. The other details I’ll need to look more into.
Wouldn’t regaining a city that’s been valued highly by the Orthodox Churches still be viewed positively? The Russian Orthodox Church declared Moscow the next Rome after Constantinople fell which showed how they felt about the city. Also Stalin and future Soviet leaders will try to use religion as a way to get on Greece’s good side if they can’t get the straits. Appealing to the Orthodox faith and congratulating the Greeks for taking back the city would be a good way to get more positive image in the country. Not to mention Greece could use this to try to build some soft power in Ethiopian and Middle Eastern religious communities too. I can’t see why they won’t milk the opportunity to build religious ties with the seizing of the city.
Also regardless of what happened in the 1800s I think it’s safe to say that the city’s recovery by Greece will still be celebrated by the Slavic churches. The other details I’ll need to look more into.
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I certainly did not expect this! However it is a logical and smart move. Stergiadis was respected by the Allies as a high commissioner of Constantinople ITTL (with the exception of Italy), so he should be OK .
I wonder what will be the next move of Mr Dragoumis...
Comcerning Constantinople, I think that the Greeks can and will use the ace of Spyros Skouras ! By circulating stories of Turkish atrocities discovered after the liberation of Constantinople the American public opinion can put (some) pressure to FDR and perhaps change the settings of the agreement for the Internacional City to be more favorable for Greece.
I wonder what will be the next move of Mr Dragoumis...
Comcerning Constantinople, I think that the Greeks can and will use the ace of Spyros Skouras ! By circulating stories of Turkish atrocities discovered after the liberation of Constantinople the American public opinion can put (some) pressure to FDR and perhaps change the settings of the agreement for the Internacional City to be more favorable for Greece.
I am afraid this misunderstands some of the history. A Greek controlled Patriarchate of Constantinople which is even more in Greek state territory will be seen as a tool of Greek state interests and a imperialist hellenization institution. This was any way how the Patriarchate was seen by a big part of its non-greek expressing flock in the 19th century. Anti-hellenism played as a big part in the collapse of the Rhomeic Commonwelath as Ottoman politics. While everybody will welcome the final conversion of Aya Sofia to a church, they will not welcome a Greek patriarchate meddling in their affairs. The stress on co-equality and collegiate decision making would be even stronger than OTL.
Stalin does not care about Greece. He wants the Straits. The Soviets do not lose the straits without a major military crisis they lose. And Stalin will not permit an institution outside of his control to have influence in the USSR. He will more likely mobilize the Slavic churches to stick it to a Greek controlled patriarchate.
For the Patriarchate the less it is seen as part and parcel of the Greek state, the better.
I am not sure why there is this belief that the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate will have some special influence in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Church is monophysite. The Patriarchate is actually very serious about dogma and especially this, ergo why about a century of attempts to unite again with the Coptic and Armenian churches went nowhere (the Anglicans are acutally Chalkedonians). Middle East Christians' are mainly heretics by Orthodox Ecclesiastic rules (Copts, Maronites, Armenians, Nestorians). Yes there is a Arab speaking orthodox Christian community, but guess what, they also despise the Hellenization of the Patriarchate.
Thus a Patriarchate seen as both hellenized and a tool of the greek national goals has a very hard job getting the kind of ecumenical influence the Pope has.
My bet is that the patriarchate will double down on getting union with the Anglicans, as that then opens up the possibility of netting all the Episcopal congregations of the USA. If they pull it off the history of Orthodoxy in North America will be very different.
I’ll be honest I don’t have much knowledge about it and I actually appreciate you telling me about it.
I think what I’m trying to say is that the Greek church will try to pursue closer ties in encourage greater cooperation among the other Orthodox churches rather than trying to control them. And building soft power doesn’t necessarily mean taking control of them but trying to build support and closer ties. That and try to build closer ties to Middle Eastern and Ethiopian Christian groups as well for similar reasons. Does that make sense?
Also maybe not Stalin but I could see Khrushchev taking the approach of staying on good terms with Greece through building church ties.
I guess it will be mentioned later, but I absolutely doubt that the Greek political class would ever accept giving up on Constantinople without first ensuring that Cyprus at least is going to become Greek unconditionally (appart from potential bases) right after the war.
We should have in mind that the consent of the Greek political class for Constantinople is crucial. Not that the Great Powers cannot force their will to Greece, but we are still in 1943. War bonds in the US are of great importance and the Greek war effort has been extensively used to promote them, IIRC. Having the Greeks speaking of backstabbing in the middle of the war, would not help the bonds. Selling off the brave Greeks (who would most probably liberate the City) for whom? The Turks and the Reds? Remember that the press by that time has still a high degree of freedom, it's not the Cold War yet.
And I didn't understand what Pangalos said. Who would attack the Greek army if it occupied Constantinople? In 1944 or post-war?
My point is that it would have been definitely very hard for Greece to take the City, but it's also hard for the (Western) Allies to back their agreement with the Soviets in their countries of the Greeks take it badly. Therefore IMO they have to find a way to really sweeten the pill for the Greek politicians and the Greek public.
We should have in mind that the consent of the Greek political class for Constantinople is crucial. Not that the Great Powers cannot force their will to Greece, but we are still in 1943. War bonds in the US are of great importance and the Greek war effort has been extensively used to promote them, IIRC. Having the Greeks speaking of backstabbing in the middle of the war, would not help the bonds. Selling off the brave Greeks (who would most probably liberate the City) for whom? The Turks and the Reds? Remember that the press by that time has still a high degree of freedom, it's not the Cold War yet.
And I didn't understand what Pangalos said. Who would attack the Greek army if it occupied Constantinople? In 1944 or post-war?
My point is that it would have been definitely very hard for Greece to take the City, but it's also hard for the (Western) Allies to back their agreement with the Soviets in their countries of the Greeks take it badly. Therefore IMO they have to find a way to really sweeten the pill for the Greek politicians and the Greek public.
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I am not sure why the idea of Greece refusing to pick a fight with the USSR is seen as problematic? Let us consider what Greek decision makers now. The US and UK are for the Free City option. The Soviets are against exclusive Greek control of the Straits. Could the Greek army take the European side before the USSR can stop it. Probably. Can the Greek army take the asiatic side. Possible but dependent on the Soviets pinning Turkish troops in the East.
Let us say this happens. The Soviets will demand the presence of Soviet troops in the region. They will couch in terms of internallied occupation and the US and UK will support it. You will have thus a Thessaloniki 1912 situation, only instead of Bukgarians , Soviets. What exactly are the Greeks going to do? Fight the USSR? Even assuming the US - UK would bankroll such a war, Greece would still have to do the fighting itself. The whole of Asiatic Greece would be at stake facing Soviers and Turkish armies. And for what ? Locking something now that is likely to fall in their hands in the long run. European Constantinople (the Constantinople in people's mind) will be Greek dominated. Venizelos whole plan was for a Free City that would be taken internally. The Free City option is well within Venizelist grand strategy since 1919.
The choice of Stergiadis is telling. No Nobember 1920 no Catastrophe , Stergiadis is the man who was managing and is managing the Venizelist legacy of the Constantinople Plan. Free City than legislative coup.The allied plan means no Soviet troops on the European side to interfere with this. The Greeks will wait for the Cold War to intensify and then the legislative assembly of the Free City will vote for union.
Let us say this happens. The Soviets will demand the presence of Soviet troops in the region. They will couch in terms of internallied occupation and the US and UK will support it. You will have thus a Thessaloniki 1912 situation, only instead of Bukgarians , Soviets. What exactly are the Greeks going to do? Fight the USSR? Even assuming the US - UK would bankroll such a war, Greece would still have to do the fighting itself. The whole of Asiatic Greece would be at stake facing Soviers and Turkish armies. And for what ? Locking something now that is likely to fall in their hands in the long run. European Constantinople (the Constantinople in people's mind) will be Greek dominated. Venizelos whole plan was for a Free City that would be taken internally. The Free City option is well within Venizelist grand strategy since 1919.
The choice of Stergiadis is telling. No Nobember 1920 no Catastrophe , Stergiadis is the man who was managing and is managing the Venizelist legacy of the Constantinople Plan. Free City than legislative coup.The allied plan means no Soviet troops on the European side to interfere with this. The Greeks will wait for the Cold War to intensify and then the legislative assembly of the Free City will vote for union.
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I’ve got to admit that extracting as many concessions as possible and planning to go for the city again in the future is the best plan, as unsatisfactory as it might feel to the Greek people. Particularly if one of the concessions the Greeks get for letting it be an international city is their own administrative zone that contains important locations for them. I’m imagining it being cut up similarly to Berlin to be clear. Something that doesn’t seem all that far fetched.
Even with a slice of the city, I imagine the allies would have to be offering a very large carrot to even have this offer be considered. Some of these can be easily deduced, like the Dodecanese and the old Italian occupation zone in Anatolia. I’m not sure if Cyprus will be on the table, but it would be a big chunk of the carrot if it was. A lot of land in Anatolia is assured(I imagine the most extreme map @Vaeius made is likely) And Bulgaria is likely to lose some territory as well. If Cyprus isn’t offered I think we would see even harsher territorial concessions from Bulgaria. Maybe a bit more from Turkey, although they’ve already lost as much as I could imagine.
Even with a slice of the city, I imagine the allies would have to be offering a very large carrot to even have this offer be considered. Some of these can be easily deduced, like the Dodecanese and the old Italian occupation zone in Anatolia. I’m not sure if Cyprus will be on the table, but it would be a big chunk of the carrot if it was. A lot of land in Anatolia is assured(I imagine the most extreme map @Vaeius made is likely) And Bulgaria is likely to lose some territory as well. If Cyprus isn’t offered I think we would see even harsher territorial concessions from Bulgaria. Maybe a bit more from Turkey, although they’ve already lost as much as I could imagine.
Greece is an economical lly devastated army. The Wallies are not going to opt for a war that could blow up the whole Yalta arrangements just so Greece can have Scutari and Chalkedona. Not when they have an adequate enough option from their POV.
Tbf I think this the most likely option ittl. The Greeks know that they could play the waiting game. The only potential problem is the USSR pushing Asiatic Constantinople's Turks and a bunch of Russians to vote against Greek union which they could do considering it's an international city. I could see Greece intensify their civilian grip there in the guise of 'keeping the reds out' and accusing the Turks and Russians of being the reds, which would be accepted by the WAllies.
Tbf how much of Turkey would Stalin annex beyond Asiatic Constantinople? I could see him attempting to take the Asiatic side of the Marmara region, with the border being at Bursa if they attempt to permanently deal with Turkey like how what they did to Prussia. It gives him Izmit, which would fulfill his dreams of a port in the straits instead of Biga, and it'd probably be easier for Stalin to move supplies through turkey too while being a good port.
PS if Stalin gets Asiatic Constantinople what would the towns' names be? Other than 'insert revolutionary name'grad, would they get names from the Greek names of the city or 'something'pol like Ukraine?
I do definitely see Greece trying to play well with the Soviets if the latter gets their foothold on the straits. On the other hand, could Khrushchev do something similar to Austria and have Greece as a neutral country in exchange for renouncing Soviet control on the straits?
Not to mention the USSR will be taking large chunks of eastern Anatolia as well.
Tbf I think the Greek would be tempted but I don't think they could really do so. They're way too entrenched in the WAllies system to do so, and their allies haven't failed them, so Greece wanting neutrality would make zero sense. Further demilitarisation of the straits for USSR acceptance of Constantinople being Greek is very possible tho, and the USSR wouldn't be losing much while they can squeeze a lot more from the Greeks due to the importance of the City.
Considering that USSR control would at least get to Greisun and leaving Samsun to be the only important black sea port that Turkey has I agree that the USSR would probably attempt a train route from Asiatic Constantinople all the way to the Caucasus and have a friendly leader rule over those lands while a southern turkey ruled from Konya (or Adana) and is more western aligned makes the most sense.
Tbf I wonder how would Georgia and Armenia fare ittl. Both just got much bigger, and I can see Stalin moving in every Georgian and Armenian that isn't in the two SSRs into them (along with a bunch of Russians into Armenia to make up the difference), but the Laz ppl still are Muslim and don't really see themselves as Georgian while there will be a huge Russian minority in Armenia. Lazistan would probably want to break off from Georgia and pursue good relations with Turkey or even return to Turkey itself (we'd probably see a bunch of pogroms to Kazakhstan and stuff in these regions), while Eastern Armenia would be full of Russians who may of may not want to stay with the Motherland no matter the cost, which would not be very palatable to either states.
I think Armenia could have a good future if they manage to convince their russian minority to work with them against the Muslims, but Georgia would be trying to prevent all the ethnic groups within the SSR to not break off when the USSR weakens, so unless they could ensure the Muslims feel that they're part of the country the state won't last (I could see the Laz ppl actually helping with this considering their population, so it may work out still).
Tbf idk how would Kurdistan go. They'd probably be WAllies at first as with the rest of the Arab states, but considering their clan based politics I'd be worried for them. If the Arabs ally with the Soviets they'd be really pressured to ditch the WAllies even when Konya and Adana are present.
Khrushchev could force Greece to be neutral if it means getting the city and a part of the straits back. Though I highly doubt the WAllies will let Greece say yes.
The Lazi will most likely get labeled as Muslim Georgians, and unfortunately Stalin may deport them like he did to some Lazi in OTL.
I think the only problem I can think of so far is that the Armenian diaspora is way bigger than the Georgian one. So I won’t be surprised if Armenians outnumber Georgians in the lands that Georgia gets, which can set up a very bad ethnic conflict.