Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Quinkana]

This is indeed likely. I have argued before that due to Soviet opposition, Greece will very likely not get nearly what it thinks it deserves from the peace settlement, leading to a 'mutilated victory' feeling (and intensely anti-Soviet feelings). Pangalos was very much a political animal, and had enormous ambition. OTL Pangalos was an admirer of Mussolini (as was Venizelos in his later years) and always saw himself as a 'strong man' in waiting. On the other hand, he was not exactly young, and the stress of running a two-front war of existential proportions definitely will have an impact... IOTL he died in 1952, and I don't think he will last that long ITTL; even so, unless a fortuitous heart attack kills him off, there remains enough time for him to launch a political movement against Dragoumis and perhaps even become PM. Ironically, this would mirror the Constantine/Venizelos split after the Balkan War, only this time with the Venizelist Pangalos as Constantine, and the formerly royalist Dragoumis as Venizelos...

I defo think Greece won't get Asiatic connstantinople and the rest of Bursa, and no asiatic ports on the Black sea too, so Greece won't be too happy about it. One thing that can happen is the Asiatic side of Constantinople wanting to join Greece post fall of the USSR tho which would be interesting.

 

[Sphenodon]

I defo think Greece won't get Asiatic connstantinople and the rest of Bursa, and no asiatic ports on the Black sea too, so Greece won't be too happy about it. One thing that can happen is the Asiatic side of Constantinople wanting to join Greece post fall of the USSR tho which would be interesting.

I think that's unlikely to happen of its own volition in most potential cases where the USSR would annex the territory:

• If the Soviets take it and expel the local population, then resettle it with Russians, the territory seems more likely to stay Russian - there's an outside chance they would vote to join Greece when/if the USSR collapses, but at that point it seems more likely to echo the fate of the Kaliningrad Oblast OTL.
• This is even less likely if they don't expel the local population, which has been mentioned to be almost entirely Turkish at this point. More likely it would vote to join Turkey in such a case.
• If the local Turkish population isn't expelled and it is added to the USSR as a separate administrative region or ASSR (more likely if they take the Asian side of the Dardanelles in addition to the Anatolian Bosphorus), there's a possibility it becomes more multiethnic in time than it is as of TTL 1943 from immigration of Russians, other Soviet nationalities, and perhaps communist Greeks. I think that presents the greatest likelihood of it breaking from Moscow to join Greece in the event of a Soviet collapse, but that would still be a small one.

I actually think the most likely circumstance for the Anatolian Bosphorus to come under Greek suzerainty if the Soviets take it is if the entire area remains an international zone until Soviet collapse (if that happens). Greek and Armenian presence in the western parts of the Marmara straits would offset that in the eastern parts, and the Greek government would retain impetus to try and influence all of the zone rather than just take and focus on their piece of it. That said, this is also something that Dragoumis along with basically every other notable Greek politician and probably most of its civilians will oppose by virtue of it meaning they can't take Constantinople after WWII. Not to say the other powers of the era might not be able to force it, but it would be beyond contentious, to say nothing of likelihood.

 

[Khan Doomy]

@Lascaris were is the sultan located? Sivas? My assumption is that he would either relocate to Bursa or Konya, with Bursa being the most likely do to the role of the city and region in the family history of the Osmanli.
My view is that if Greece does not get the Anatolian side now, it will not later. There is just too much major power interest to keep the straits internationalized. Even the most pro-Greek British Foreign Office memorandums in 1919-1920 envisioned the straits divided between two different states.

 

[Lascaris]

I'm imagining Greece becoming closer to De Gaulle's France if the US and UK don't give the Greek leadership enough.

This presupposes there is a Gaullist France around...

But I imagine that the most the Greeks want is a little more land in western Anatolia where the borders are shifted east just enough to be defensible. That and the Asian side of the straits alongside the European side and the whole city. Even if it's not extreme like the Megali Plan, I imagine the issue of the straits and how much Greece should be allowed to take will be cause for a lot of nagging.

What Megali plan? There was never any definite plan. There was since 1843 when Kolletis coined the term, as part of an internal political fight about whether Greeks not born in the free state should have the right to vote, a blanket term covering the vague IDEA/hope on the part of the Greek populations about eventually said popuations gaining independence. How this translated into coherent policy if/when it translated into such and how much successive Greek governments supported a coherent policy to that end/ paid lip service to it were entirely different things.

I still do not see why the major powers will let this one strait be controlled by one power, when they have not let any other of the major straits being so (Malacca, Gibraltar, Denmark. Canals are a different story, but they also are subject to completely different legal system). Greece cannot defy the USSR on this issue. The Soviets will fight to make sure the Straits are not controlled by one power, and the WAllies will not fight them over the Asian side, especially once they have promised them it.

British policy would certainly want to keep the Soviets bottled up... but as long as the Greek navy holds the Aegean... maritime law and extending territorial waters will be funny to behold some decades down the road I suspect.

I'm wondering if Russia might pull some sort of Kaliningrad scenario in the Asian side of the city at this point. Hell maybe Konigsburg goes back to Poland as part of the Soviet concessions? Maybe an immediate post-war treaty could look something vaguely like this:

View attachment 834283

With the immediate straights areas being under Greek control administratively, but with some heavily restrictive treaties on what can be done there militarily? Or perhaps Britain has to cough up Cyprus to get them to agree to something like the old league mandate, however short-lived it might be, plus some hefty gains elsewhere. I frankly do not see Turkey getting either side of the straights anymore, maybe if they had bowed out earlier but... I think Roosevelt would give the Asiatic side to Stalin before they ever get it back, ditto with Churchill. Especially if they can wrangle a few more bits of Europe out of him. It's looking like they'll still be an active combatant into 1944 and well... I don't see them gaining anything at this point.

Let me note that in OTL 1945, the US outright threatened France over the French army capturing a few villages in the Italian border. No matter TTL Greece beinng stronger than OTL and having a larger degree of freedom compared to OTL it is still a minor power and not in the same league with France.

That all said, I wonder if when the allied army rolls up to Constantinople, whether the Turkish population doesn't just book it east like legions of Germans will flee west once the Soviets start rolling in. They know better than anyone exactly what they have been doing in the city after all. The Greeks might just win a plebiscite after all.

They might. Then they might not. The table below is the TTL populations up to the start of the war. So come 1943 the entire Jewish population is gone, Greeks and Armenians have been subject to starvation and a pretty harsh occupation, the Turkish population subject to some degree of starvation thanks to the Allied blockade and all subject to repeated air raids, have I noted the city is mostly wooden still? Soo in this say 1945 plebiscite for whom are the Armenians voting for? Annexation to Greece or an international city? Is Athens feeling lucky the Soviet government does NOT have any influence on the Armenian population? What about any White Russian refugees left over from the 1920s, over 200,000 were there at a time? I'll note that in OTL about 150,000 Armenians or so immigrated to the Soviet Union of all things immediately after 1945, so some degree of influence would be there...

Constantinople
	Greek	Turks	Armenians	Jews	Others
1921​	318605​	487605​	163670​	53606​	149825​
1931​	360272​	510650​	185074​	53606​	149825​
1941​	408283​	574530​	209738​	53606​	149825​
European Constantinople	Greek	Turks	Armenians	Jews	Others
1921​	254641​	352461​	128110​	46444​	131328​
1931​	303209​	345365​	153351​	46444​	131328​
1941​	353895​	372381​	179502​	46444​	131328​
Chalkedon	Greek	Turks	Armenians	Jews	Others
1921​	63964​	135144​	35560​	7162​	18497​
1931​	57062​	165285​	31723​	7162​	18497​
1941​	54388​	202149​	30236​	7162​	18497​

Yeah , I very much doubt that there would be many Turks there to vote if a Greek army reaches the City . Especially given the treatment the Christians of the City got just a few short years earlier ...

Which one notes wouldn't be very good for Greek public relations in the US if it uncontrollably happened. Would there be atrocities? Some certainly. Would the Greek high command be making a honest effort to ensure its army behaves? Again yes, even if you attribute it to entirely pragmatic reasons.

I wonder if we’ll see the Greeks extract more concession in Anatolia than presented on the map if the Russian portion of Constantinople comes to pass. It would be a good counter balance to Russia if the Greeks/nato had their own big base in say Gölcük or Bursa/Prusa

What Greece gets elsewhere almost certainly depends on what happens in Constantinople.

First, I think that should be noted that the ITTL Truman administration, even if will be developed under a slightly different Truman doctrine would have a very different position than the current Roosevelt's.

Certainly but that's still quite a bit in the future...

The process and events that OTL lead to the unification of the Wallies occupation zones in Germany was a very specific set of military, political circumstances and geostrategic concerns.

One would question even the exact details of the occupation of Germany here. Depending on what happens in Italy and the Balkans for example.

Assuming that Turkey is divided akin to Germany and Korea IOTL with Sivas in Red Turkey, where would "Free Turkey" be setting up its capital? Konya would be a good first call, especially with how it is a fairly sizable city and all that.

IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey.

Wouldn't though a demilitarization of the Sea of Marmara and a Soviet Asiatic Constantinople fix the Soviet fears as no warships from WAllies would be allowed and even limited Greek ones and with a presence in the Bosporus no one can pass without their permission? Biga is a thorn in the Greek side cause it allows Turkish presence in the Aegean that the Greek government wouldn't find acceptable. So more than likely even though Biga is a majority Turkish area it needs to be incorporated or on the other hand it needs to be demilitarized.

If the straits are entirely demilitarized what is stopping the USN or the RN from seizing control in wartime or in time of crisis? After all one or more Greek divisions will be parked at Catalca about an hour's drive from the Bosporus and more Greeks at Lemnos ready to do just that.

 

[Khan Doomy]

"British policy would certainly want to keep the Soviets bottled up... but as long as the Greek navy holds the Aegean... maritime law and extending territorial waters will be funny to behold some decades down the road I suspect."

Well International Law clearly covers international waterways and the Straits are archetypical in this.

"If the straits are entirely demilitarized what is stopping the USN or the RN from seizing control in wartime or in time of crisis?"

This. The Soviets are paranoid, for bad or good reasons, and will want to make sure they can contest the Straits if it comes to that. This is why I think a Rhine Commission style regime makes the most sense.

The thing we need to understand is that ATL Greek autonomy (i.e its ability to put a middle finger on the maratime powers) still requires that the power controlling the Black Sea is willing to play with it. Holding the straits when both the maritime powers and the Black Sea power hate you gives you nothing. Sweden's ability to translate its key position into foreign policy autonomy was married to a pretty much careful policy of not making angry both the powers that control the North Sea and the power that controls the Baltic Sea. This is why Venizelos never thought Greek autonomy thanks to control of the straits made sense without a good stable client-patron relationship with the UK. This is what people do not get. Yes the control of the straits would had given Greece immense autonomy vs. the maritime powers, but only to the extent that it could keep good relations with the power on the other side.

 

[Khan Doomy]

"IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey."
You might still get a small Osmanli state as buffer between an Anatolian Republic of Turkey and the Straits zone. Biga, the south side of the Marmara coast and Bursa and Ertugul.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Let me note that in OTL 1945, the US outright threatened France over the French army capturing a few villages in the Italian border. No matter TTL Greece beinng stronger than OTL and having a larger degree of freedom compared to OTL it is still a minor power and not in the same league with France.

Could someone argue that not giving Greece what it wants could lead to the same sort of resentment that led Italy to become fascist? Italy didn’t get everything what it wanted in WWI and that resentment led to it working with Germany. Maybe the Allies realize this and decide to give Greece enough concessions so that they don’t make the same mistake twice?

"IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey."
You might still get a small Osmanli state as buffer between an Anatolian Republic of Turkey and the Straits zone. Biga, the south side of the Marmara coast and Bursa and Ertugul.

Is the Osmanli dynasty even popular anymore? Or do the Allies even want them around? The German Kaiser wasn’t restored after OTL WWII so I have doubts about this.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Its not a matter of popularity but international politics. Medium term, sure, it will create a crisis, but short term dividing the straits into two micro-states could satisfy many interests.

 

[Xenophonte]

One would question even the exact details of the occupation of Germany here. Depending on what happens in Italy and the Balkans for example.

Well. OTL it was decided much earlier than any allied army could have reached Germany and later confirmed in Yalta... But, anyway at least, IOTL, the extent of the Wallies military advance there was, ultimately, conditioned on the Interallied political discussions and agreements between Roosevelt and Stalin. A trend, that ITTL, IMO, at least, would appear that hasn't changed and that aside of the Wallies earlier and even bigger success in the Balkans and advances, it still will seemingly determine any possible military occupation zones.

 

[Lascaris]

The Soviets can easily give up Biga to make sure the Asiatic side of the straits stays out of Greek control. Again think this not from a Greek perspective. With Greece solidly in control of the Aegean, with a naval base at Mudros and Souda any Soviet Control of the Asiatic part of the Straits is not an issue. The Soviets will push for control of Anatolia for another reason. If they have a secure logistic linking Antalya or Mersin to Erzurum or Sinope they can be more secure that if something happens to close of the Marmara to them, they have a back up route. The Soviet grand strategy thus can be seen serving one goal "no interruption of their access to the Mediterranean). This of course will have consequences of the fate of Cyprus. The Soviets have thus several tools. Give up the claim to Biga (given to them by the Wallies) and tolerate a European side of the straits outside their hands in return for a demilitarized Cyprus and de-factor control of Central Anatolia. This means among other things that the Konya-Eskisehir-Izmit railway must not be given to Greek control.

Assuming Turkey has not gotten outright occupied by Soviet armies which is easier said than done, the frontline is ~550 km from Sivas at the moment, I'd note this gives Turkey some bargaining capacity. It is in the Soviet interest to avoid alienating Turkey... too much. If they do Turkey just turns to the west...

They want all of Anatolia in their sphere of influence (ala Finland) as any division will likely mean losing the Konya-Eskisehir-Izmit railway. The hard rality is the Soviets have things to give up to get what they want. The Greeks do not (beyond exorbitant claims on Bulgaria).

As noted the Soviet Union is a great power and Greece is not. To the extend that Greek interests coincide with British and American interests...

My expectation? Greece gets Cyprus, perhaps demilitarized in certain aspects,

The Soviets can't quite affect what will be happening to Cyprus... at least at this point.

European Constantinople becomes a International City with Greek preponderant influence in local goverment, the Straits become demilitarized and internationalized with a Straits Commission as a sub-organization of the UN, where the USSR can outvote Greece, Greece gains territory in Anatolia but not the railway, and the Soviets gain trade-transit and naval presence rights in Anatolian Turkey. They do not Sovietize but you get a Finlandization type result under an Ismet Ismirli Presidency.

If Ismet is leading the pro-Soviet faction within Turkey, which is not unlikely, what would be the alternative Kazim Karabekir? then you likely have the west backing what became the Democratic party in OTL.

The muslim population of the European Side of Constantinople will be moved to Izmit. I expect the Soviets to seek to develop Antalya as bigger port than OTL , and same with Sinope.

If Constantinople (meaning the European side) is annexed to Greece an exchange of populations can likely be taken for granted. If not... it might still happen, after all most Greeks and Armenians from the Asiatic side had escaped in 1940 to the European side ahead of the Turkish army retaking Uskudar so certainly there will be arguments to that extend. But the number of Greeks and Armenians on the Asian side would be about a quarter the number of Turks on the European side so I'm uncertain how happy the US and British governments would be with condoning this.

And Dragoumis is a romantic. Think about it. They will promise him the dream. A Patriarch enthroned in Aya Sofia in the presence of the President and Prime Minister of the Greek Republic.

For the record that did happen in 1935.

Aya Sofia a church with no ifs or buts, the restoration of the Patriachate's prestige and churches. The City holds a mystical power (some would say a curse), and Dragoumis might be willing to compromise on a lot to just get that liturgy. The Prestige will be massive and key if he decides to stand up to the Venizelist army domestically. There is a reason @Lascaris reminds us all the time that this is the Venizelist army of 1920. That was a political army, and many of its high command, above all Pangalos have political ambitions. The next years in Greece will see a Pangalo vs. Dragoumis political showdown. Having the prestige as the Prime Minister who was present in the enthronement of a Patriarch in Aghia Sofia for the first time in a millenia is a powerful domestic political tool. My guess is Pangalos will attack the compromises and build his political career on that.

The Greek army of OTL was very much a political animal as well, so I'm inclined to prefer this version both because TTL it did not get into the bad habit of launching coups and because "Venizelist army of 1920" also means degrees of expected efficiency and discipline the OTL post army did not have. (Why during the retreats in 1941 the Greek army did not collapse? Because it's the direct descendant of Kondylis executing deserters in 1917, Pangalos court-martialing the likes of Schoinas in 1919). But Pangalos will be immensely popular by the end of the war...

I can see it. Pangalos resigning his command of the army after the final peace treaty, citing his opposition to any compromises, accusing Dragoumis of being to accommodating to the Soviets and the Turks (think of the propaganda war: was not Dragoumis part of the Constantinople Group with Souliotes, that sought accommodation with the Ottomans, was he not an Anti-Venizelist and pro-Royalist, had he not flirted with Marxism, is he not in coalition with Communists, does he not tolerate Ares Makedon etc). Pangalos the Architect of Victory vs. Dragoumis the Prime Minister that gave Romiosyni back their Church.

Pangalos would likely have leadership of the Liberal party on a plate. Michalakopoulos is dead, Kafandaris is dying, Papandreou heading his own fringe, or not so fringe, party, Plastiras TTL is a non-entity and Sofoules parked in the presidency. The only likely contender within the party would be Sophoklis Venizelos who likely can see the writing in the wall. Bodosakis afforisms aside (If you were not named Venizelos I wouldn't give you 8 pigs to manage because by night you'd bring me back 7) the younger Venizelos was a decent strategist...

 

[Khan Doomy]

"What Megali plan? There was never any definite plan. There was since 1843 when Kolletis coined the term, as part of an internal political fight about whether Greeks not born in the free state should have the right to vote, a blanket term covering the vague IDEA/hope on the part of the Greek populations about eventually said popuations gaining independence. How this translated into coherent policy if/when it translated into such and how much successive Greek governments supported a coherent policy to that end/ paid lip service to it were entirely different things."

Indeed, the Megali Idea was more of a political culture (like USA Manifest Destiny, or Greater Serbianism) rather than a political program. The specific policies that came out of it changed according to periods and conditions. The Unionist strand was not always the most dominant one, even in the thinking of somebody like Venizelos. The basic common denominator was no effective Turkish rule over Greeks (which depending on the period for Venizelos meant things like the Cretan State)

 

[Khan Doomy]

"If Ismet is leading the pro-Soviet faction within Turkey, which is not unlikely, what would be the alternative Kazim Karabekir? then you likely have the west backing what became the Democratic party in OTL."

Karabekir though is not as successful as he was historically (whole Savior of the East shtick) and died in 1948. He also to put it simply was a second rate politician which was why Kemal overtook him.

1935. Sure but the Church was shared. Different symbolism if it is not shared

 

[Whiteshore]

IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey.

Especially as it was the OG Ottoman capital.

 

[Xenophonte]

IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey.

Well, symbolism and historical prestige aside, what would seems that will eventually be a border city, wouldn't came across as very likely candidate for be a capital city...

Let me note that in OTL 1945, the US outright threatened France over the French army capturing a few villages in the Italian border. No matter TTL Greece beinng stronger than OTL and having a larger degree of freedom compared to OTL it is still a minor power and not in the same league with France.

Yeah, but both are two very different situations, cause the Italian situation,(surrendered and dropped their alliance with Nazi Germany) as as well as their importance for the American politicians and electorate back home, couldn't be compared to the Turkish one, still developing in the Aegean and Eastern Anatolia fronts...

Also, I think that on this matter, would be probable that the wartime (philhellene?) propaganda would help to shape the attitudes of most of the Americans...

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

If Greece gets back Constantinople, I wonder if there'd be an Orthodox Christian revival. I can't see the Greek government skipping an opportunity to declare itself as a spiritual-leading nation for taking back the faith's historically prominent city and encouraging a boost in Orthodox Christianity pride and power.

 

[Whiteshore]

Well, symbolism and historical prestige aside, what would seems that will eventually be a border city, wouldn't came across as very likely candidate for be a capital city...

Which is why I think Konya might be another potential alternative capital as it has some historical prestige from being the historic capital of the Sultanate of Rum and all that.

 

[Quinkana]

If Greece gets back Constantinople, I wonder if there'd be an Orthodox Christian revival. I can't see the Greek government skipping an opportunity to declare itself as a spiritual-leading nation for taking back the faith's historically prominent city and encouraging a boost in Orthodox Christianity pride and power.

Tbf I think it's more that we'd have a lot more powerful Greek orthodox church with the USSR being a lot more concerned about the 'fifth column' that are orthodox ppl, only to eventually give up on completely destroying the church because of how important it is.

IF there was a divided Turkey Bursa would be the obvious candidate methinks for the... kingdom of Turkey.

Bursa is too close to the Greek border if it is to be the western aligned turkey's capital. I think Konya being the political capital and Adana being the economic capital would make the most sense.

The Greek army of OTL was very much a political animal as well, so I'm inclined to prefer this version both because TTL it did not get into the bad habit of launching coups and because "Venizelist army of 1920" also means degrees of expected efficiency and discipline the OTL post army did not have. (Why during the retreats in 1941 the Greek army did not collapse? Because it's the direct descendant of Kondylis executing deserters in 1917, Pangalos court-martialing the likes of Schoinas in 1919). But Pangalos will be immensely popular by the end of the war...

Considering that this means that the Greeks are much more capable (and that they went over WWII) I'm defo interested in how they'd interfere in ME politics. Even if we get a Plan-Arab state Israel will pop up and I don't see Greece not attempting to help them. Maybe we get Lebanon resenting the fact that they're being ruled over by a Muslim king?

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Tbf I think it's more that we'd have a lot more powerful Greek orthodox church with the USSR being a lot more concerned about the 'fifth column' that are orthodox ppl, only to eventually give up on completely destroying the church because of how important it is.

And if Khrushchev comes into power, I imagine he'll try to make ties with Greece through the Orthodox faith as a good way to keep it on its good side.

 

[Vladyslav]

more powerful Greek orthodox church with the USSR being a lot more concerned about the 'fifth column' that are orthodox ppl

IOTL Stalin eased the pressure on the Orthodox Church during the war and tried to use it in his political games after it. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Всеправославное_совещание_(1948)

 

[goumaister]

If the straits are entirely demilitarized what is stopping the USN or the RN from seizing control in wartime or in time of crisis? After all one or more Greek divisions will be parked at Catalca about an hour's drive from the Bosporus and more Greeks at Lemnos ready to do just that.

I had in mind only a Turkish demilitarization on Biga really, and on the Bosporus there is the Soviet base either way.