Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Duke of Orlando]

I have a feeling the Greeks are going to agree to one thing and then do another. The Soviets have very little chance of forcing the straights if the Greeks refuse to hand it over. At least not without marching through Turkey and the Balkans to try and take it by land. Could the Soviets do it? Probably. But I doubt Churchill would let them go it alone.

And honestly Russian military bases in the straits is just asking for trouble. Honestly it should be fully Greek, or fully UN. Giving the Russians bases in the straits seems like a step way to far.

 

[New Potomac]

I have a feeling the Greeks are going to agree to one thing and then do another. The Soviets have very little chance of forcing the straights if the Greeks refuse to hand it over. At least not without marching through Turkey and the Balkans to try and take it by land. Could the Soviets do it? Probably. But I doubt Churchill would let them go it alone.

And honestly Russian military bases in the straits is just asking for trouble. Honestly it should be fully Greek, or fully UN. Giving the Russians bases in the straits seems like a step way to far.

It's a good "promise" to break once the soviets start breaking promises as to how free and democratic the states of Eastern and Central Europe are allowed to be.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I have a feeling the Greeks are going to agree to one thing and then do another. The Soviets have very little chance of forcing the straights if the Greeks refuse to hand it over. At least not without marching through Turkey and the Balkans to try and take it by land. Could the Soviets do it? Probably. But I doubt Churchill would let them go it alone.

And honestly Russian military bases in the straits is just asking for trouble. Honestly it should be fully Greek, or fully UN. Giving the Russians bases in the straits seems like a step way to far.

That depends on the naval situation in the Black Sea, and on Turkish willingness to resist a soviet drive to the Asian Side as much as they will resist a Greek drive to the European side

 

[Vladyslav]

Preliminary agreement was made that Poland's eastern border would be set in the in the Curzon B line

The Roosevelt administration will obviously not put much pressure on Stalin on unimportant issues to it, just as Sikorsky was not buzzing all ears. Stalin will not want to give up a major economic center and oil fields, to which he has more rights than Bialystok, and I see no reason to change the position ITTL.

Przed rozpoczęciem obrad konferencji doszło do spotkania Roosevelta ze Stalinem, w czasie którego prezydent USA oświadczył, że przyjmuje linię Curzona jako podstawę wytyczenia wschodniej granicy Polski po wojnie, ale ze względu na zbliżające się wybory prezydenckie i liczenie na głosy polonii amerykańskiej nie może sygnować do tej pory żadnego oficjalnego porozumienia w tej kwestii. Churchill podczas konferencji początkowo obstawał za przynależnością Lwowa do Polski, ale gdy Stalin zdecydowanie odrzucił tę propozycję, stwierdził: „Nie mam zamiaru podnosić wielkiego lamentu z powodu Lwowa.”

Before the beginning of the [Tehran] conference, Roosevelt met with Stalin, during which the US president declared that he accepted the Curzon line as the basis for demarcating the eastern border of Poland after the war, but due to the upcoming presidential election and counting on the votes of the Polish American community, he could not sign this so far no official agreement on this issue. During the conference, Churchill initially insisted that Lviv belong to Poland, but when Stalin firmly rejected this proposal, he stated: "I have no intention of raising a great lament for Lviv."

Theoretically, the maximum that Stalin can agree for saving of Polish feelings to is plebiscites in Lviv and Bialystok with a predictable result.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Another strategy Stalin might resort to is make Greece a strictly neutral nation similar to Austria. But I have doubts it’ll work.

 

[Quinkana]

"So my dear Mr. Roosevelt, to get it straight. Greece can choose between the European side of Constantinople being part of a United Nations Free Territory, effectively a continuation of the pre-war League city, or to having a plebiscite overseen by the three Allied powers, as soon as the City is liberated, to unite with Greece. Said plebiscite would of course not take into account the... demographic changes within the City in the past three years, now would it? You have seen our intelligence estimates that perhaps up to 100,000 Greeks and Armenians have died from starvation or other causes and the entire Jewish population was shipped away by the Germans. Of course you have..."

I think the Greeks will agree to the second option and then push the various powers away like how Israel was created in British Palestine. It'd probably piss everyone off but I don't think the powers could do much about it.

I have a feeling the Greeks are going to agree to one thing and then do another. The Soviets have very little chance of forcing the straits if the Greeks refuse to hand it over. At least not without marching through Turkey and the Balkans to try and take it by land. Could the Soviets do it? Probably. But I doubt Churchill would let them go it alone.

And honestly Russian military bases in the straits is just asking for trouble. Honestly it should be fully Greek, or fully UN. Giving the Russians bases in the straits seems like a step way to far.

I think having soviet military bases in Turkey would make the most sense, and its not something the Greeks could really control even if Greece has control over the Hellespont.

Theoretically, the maximum that Stalin can agree for saving of Polish feelings to is plebiscites in Lviv and Bialystok with a predictable result.

I think we'd probably have the Polish be forced to agree to Ukrainian Lvov, and if they lose Bailystok I don't see them not gaining stuff like Silesia, but I don't see them gaining Pomerania if they're part of the west, and Pomerania was seen as part of Germany.

PS if the WAllies can get there Prussia would be Polish since Churchill wanted to destroy the idea of German Prussia to prevent any world wars from happening again.

 

[New Potomac]

I won't speak for Lascaris here but I feel like the dynamic isn't being fully appreciated.

A Greek Civil War is incredibly unlikely. The government, unlike OTL, is far more unified and stable, and was not totally discredited and force to flee into exile while all of Greece was brutalized and plundered. Communist influence, insofar as it exists, is going to be fairly limited. The same dynamic is why Stalin wouldn't have any grounds or even dreams about demanding Greek neutrality. Greece is an allied power that has been fighting on the continent just as long as the Soviets have. He has some leverage to make demands about the straits and the post-war arrangement around the Black Sea, unhelpfully enhanced by Roosevelt, but he has no leverage as to Greece's eventual diplomatic and political orientation.

 

[Andreas]

Cairo, December 3rd, 1943

Winston Churchill looked again at the napkin were the results of his late night private meeting with Stalin laid written for posterity. Greece was of course to be western. Kurdistan 90-10. Iran 75-25. Turkey, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia 50-50. Romania 25-75. Not great but the best he could do at the moment. And with some luck the split percentages could surely change to the West's favour. If a country avoided Communist domination surely democracy and free market would prevail from within. With sufficient help and guidance from London if necessary. He sipped more from his whiskey before looking at another note. Tomorrow he would be in Athens. And if neither Mr Dragoumis nor the Sophoklis Venizelos were up to the league of Eleutherios Venizelos, this did not make them easy customers. And he and Franklin would be presenting them with some pretty tough choices...

Athens, December 4th, 1943

Ion Dragoumis gave a carefully calculated look to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He liked to profess himself an idealist even to himself, but this belied nearly half a century as a diplomat and statesman, a good one at that.

"So my dear Mr. Roosevelt, to get it straight. Greece can choose between the European side of Constantinople being part of a United Nations Free Territory, effectively a continuation of the pre-war League city, or to having a plebiscite overseen by the three Allied powers, as soon as the City is liberated, to unite with Greece. Said plebiscite would of course not take into account the... demographic changes within the City in the past three years, now would it? You have seen our intelligence estimates that perhaps up to 100,000 Greeks and Armenians have died from starvation or other causes and the entire Jewish population was shipped away by the Germans. Of course you have..."

Well, to be frank, I find it rather peculiar that the fate of Greece was even discussed by Mr Churchil and comrade Stalin in the "napkin agreement ". Greece not been occupied would probably exclude any conversation altogether.

Now, on the Straits, IMHO, no matter how sympathetic Roosevelt would have been to the Soviet concerns, Churchill would definitely have vetoed any Soviet direct control (2 bases!!!) with teeth and nails!

It would be also interesting to see how the Big Three are going to sell the whole settlement on Constantinople. How are they going to ignore the Greek plebiscite, in favour of the Turks, ie sell off the only standing democratic country in continental Europe in favour of the country which caused the biggest headache after Germany and Japan. And at the same time be totally OK with the major border adjustments in Eastern Europe...
Except if Britain makes sure there are enough boats available at the Bosporus when the Greek Army enters the City. Although I wouldn't like such a think to be a planned strategy of Greece...

 

[Quinkana]

Except if Britain makes sure there are enough boats available at the Bosporus when the Greek Army enters the City. Although I wouldn't like such a think to be a planned strategy of Greece...

tbf I can see underground agreements where the British and American areas are given to the Greeks

 

[Khan Doomy]

Except if ATL Polois is OTL Cyprus. A area were Greeks voted for union and got denied

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

It would be also interesting to see how the Big Three are going to sell the whole settlement on Constantinople. How are they going to ignore the Greek plebiscite, in favour of the Turks, ie sell off the only standing democratic country in continental Europe in favour of the country which caused the biggest headache after Germany and Japan. And at the same time be totally OK with the major border adjustments in Eastern Europe...

Or maybe Britain and the US decide to change their mind and accept the plebiscite if they feel that rejecting it is going to cause a lot of Greeks to become pro-Soviet. That and I imagine that even the pro-Western Greek leadership is going to demand kicking and screaming for the Greek plebiscite to be accepted, arguing that Turkey needs to be punished.

 

[Vladyslav]

if they lose Bailystok

I think that the Bialystok inhabitants will gladly vote for the return to the Rzeczpospolita Ludowa and its glorious leaders Bierut and Gomułka

if the WAllies can get there Prussia would be Polish

If. Soviets will be earlier and they also want Königsberg

 

[goumaister]

First agreements are not always going as planned. I could argue for a Soviet base in the Asiatic side of Constantinople but not for a base in Biga. If the Soviet need the Black sea the can have it just with a base in Constantinople and nothing more. Well the Greeks have an army close to Biga and they could get it if they pushed for it.

 

[Sphenodon]

I have a feeling the Greeks are going to agree to one thing and then do another. The Soviets have very little chance of forcing the straights if the Greeks refuse to hand it over. At least not without marching through Turkey and the Balkans to try and take it by land. Could the Soviets do it? Probably. But I doubt Churchill would let them go it alone.

And honestly Russian military bases in the straits is just asking for trouble. Honestly it should be fully Greek, or fully UN. Giving the Russians bases in the straits seems like a step way to far.

I feel like this is likely to happen in the end - or at least, something the Greeks will try to do. Whether they manage to achieve a fait accompli or not is a different question, but unless things go really badly I think it would at least offer them greater leverage in negotiating for their position in the Straits in due time. Though by the same virtue, should they do so I feel strongly the Soviets would renege upon their current promises of taking only 50% stake in influence within Turkey.

Irrespective of that, if the end of the chapter is to be interpreted as such, I think at least European Constantinople is likely to be accepted as a de jure annexation by the Greeks. Then there's the matter of what they take off of Bulgaria. Taking the Rhodope region has been talked about earlier in the thread, though I reckon that's about all that makes sense; Burgas is an outside possibility in the vein of Stettin post-WWII, but that feels highly impractical.

Wonder if the Iranians have been privy to the contents of the talks in Tehran? Would be interesting to see what their thoughts are on all the politicking going on.

 

[DracoLazarus]

I feel like this is likely to happen in the end - or at least, something the Greeks will try to do. Whether they manage to achieve a fait accompli or not is a different question, but unless things go really badly I think it would at least offer them greater leverage in negotiating for their position in the Straits in due time. Though by the same virtue, should they do so I feel strongly the Soviets would renege upon their current promises of taking only 50% stake in influence within Turkey.

Irrespective of that, if the end of the chapter is to be interpreted as such, I think at least European Constantinople is likely to be accepted as a de jure annexation by the Greeks. Then there's the matter of what they take off of Bulgaria. Taking the Rhodope region has been talked about earlier in the thread, though I reckon that's about all that makes sense; Burgas is an outside possibility in the vein of Stettin post-WWII, but that feels highly impractical.

Plovdiv/Philippopolis feels more likely to me than Burgas.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Plovdiv/Philippopolis feels more likely to me than Burgas.

While I agree with you, Burgas isn’t all that out there. If the Greeks aren’t going to have full control of the straights I imagine the UK is going to be very much in favor of a solid ally having a proper Black Sea base to prevent it from being a Soviet lake. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if behind the scene the UK was telling Greece to do whatever they felt they could get away with in relation to the straights and they’d have UK support.

 

[Andreas]

Guys, I don't think Greece is so maximalist to pursue either Burgas or Philippopolis/Plovdiv!
Greece so far has been very careful to ask only for what can be consolidated.
More land in Asia Minor is worth the cost of integration, because it adds more strategic depth.
Large land accessions of Bulgarian land with small Greek populations will not be worth it.
My guess is that concerning Bulgaria, Greece will only seek border adjustments which will provide a more defensible borderline.

And generally, concerning Greek land demands for after the war, IMO it all depends on the developments about Cyprus and Constantinople.
Why burn political capital on imperialist demands, when the predominantly Greek Cyprus and the symbol called Constantinople's fates are dire?
Even economically speaking, the latter two areas have a great importance for commerce, and their acquisition can strengthen Greece's perspective to become the economic powerhouse of the Eastern Mediterranean. What difference would Burgass or Plovdiv make compared to this?

 

[Quinkana]

My guess is that concerning Bulgaria, Greece will only seek border adjustments which will provide a more defensible borderline.
And generally, concerning Greek land demands for after the war, IMO it all depends on the developments about Cyprus and Constantinople.
Why burn political capital on imperialist demands, when the predominantly Greek Cyprus and the symbol called Constantinople's fates are dire?
Even economically speaking, the latter two areas have a great importance for commerce, and their acquisition can strengthen Greece's perspective to become the economic powerhouse of the Eastern Mediterranean. What difference would Burgass or Plovdiv make compared to this?

Yeah I agree. I don't think the Greeks would want to push for maximalist demands against Bulgaria. Plovdiv and Burgas are really big Bulgarian cities and taking them would push the Bulgarians into the arms of the Russians, which is something no one wants to happen. A Bulgaria that at least would want to work with the WAllies are in the WAllies' interests.

For control over the Black sea if Constantinople is an international city the US probably would park a bunch of ships there anyways, and if its Greece (I don't see any way that Turkey gets the European portion of the city) then Greece would allow the US to do so.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I do not think there is any question at this point of Turkey holding the European side. The question is does Greece get the European side or not (or does it become internationalized), and does somebody control both sides of the straits or not (it seems very hard for the Wallies to take the Asian side before a Turco-Soviet agreement gives the Soviets a foothold on the Asian sidea-one that the Wallies have nothing to ay about since they agreed to it at Tehran).

 

[Quinkana]

I do not think there is any question at this point of Turkey holding the European side. The question is does Greece get the European side or not (or does it become internationalized), and does somebody control both sides of the straits or not (it seems very hard for the Wallies to take the Asian side before a Turco-Soviet agreement gives the Soviets a foothold on the Asian sidea-one that the Wallies have nothing to ay about since they agreed to it at Tehran).

I think we prob would have a Greek controlled Constantinople at the end. Even if the Greeks accept the international position, I don't see it not be de facto greek territory.