Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Wait i just realized that the turco-cretans were not expelled...this could lessen the fear of the turkish-cypriots about enosis...in otl the turkish-cypriots feared that they like the turco-cretans were going to be the subject of an population transfer like the cretans were...i don't think that matters much if an eoka like situation develops in cyprus..but then again venizelos was against an armed solution to enosis..but he will not live forever....
 
Wait i just realized that the turco-cretans were not expelled...this could lessen the fear of the turkish-cypriots about enosis...in otl the turkish-cypriots feared that they like the turco-cretans were going to be the subject of a population transfer like the cretans were...i don't think that matters much if an eoka like situation develops in cyprus..but then again venizelos was against an armed solution to enosis..but he will not live forever....
 
@Lascaris I'm greatly enjoying reading this timeline. I'm thinking of making a map for your timeline. I was partly inspired to make my own Greater Greece map (see below) reading this tl. I can't wait to see how this Greece develops. Though do you think the Russian whites would probably flee to Greece due to it being a now being a more significant regional power in the Balkans and Mediterranean?

How do you think Greek society will develop in ttl? Do you see a revival of the "Rhomaoi" identity for Greeks in some sense with how they retook lands in Anatolia? Something like this happened in Italy with Italian nationalists of this era hailing Italy as a successor to the Romans expressing a desire to make Italy a new Mediterranean power.

I think I have mentioned it before but there was no conflict of identity between Byzantine and modern Greek to the average Greek, who very much considered (and considers) Byzantium as nothing more than the medieval Greek state and himself its direct descendant and successor. Where exactly would the identity differentiation happen in a population hailing themselves as the direct descendants of both the Byzantines and the ancient Greeks in the first place?

Here comes the father of the greek industry. Obtaining EEPK in 1922 along with Steyr machine tools and not losing his Smyrna and Constantinople assets, will do wonders for Bodossakis' liquidity. As it was hinted a major rifle order is coming in the near future.

The question is what direction would Bodossakis choose? Would he follow his OTL interwar strategy of becoming an even more important Greek Army supplier by building a textile industry for blankets and uniforms for the military? Would he follow his OTL post-war strategy when the became the heart and brain of the greek industry with investments in mines, metal factories and chemical/ fertilizer plants?

There are arguments for both strategies. From one side, I would guess that Bodossakis would still have an "army supplier" mentality. From the other side, the greek export agriculture will go in a boom period until 1929 and the subsequent crash. So, an increasing demand for fertilizers will exist.

In general, greek industry has a golden opportunity to kickstart.

I'll note TTL he also got or rather is getting a steel factory and is also getting Vickers investments, so he's more oriented towards heavy industry... as shall be seen in future instalments, he should have limits in the things he can keep an eye on. He's not the sole industrialist in Greece either. OTL you had shipyards, some limited car manufacturing, locomotives and engine manufacturing and of course aircraft manufacturing in the period. TTL you are also starting with quite a bit of additional industry in Smyrna, for example Issigonis engineering is very much intact and the most significant engine and machinery manufacturer on the east side of the Aegean, that's sir Alec's dad...

Overall Greek industry in OTL grew by about 234% between 1921 and 1938. TTL the Greek economy has every prospect to be doing better...

Perhaps only half of the OTL £80 million are needed for refugee resettlement. As mentioned before, Asiatic Greece has a lot of cash crops that constitute a most valuable source of hard currency. Moreover, East Thrace is an important cereal producer: in OTL interwar Greece, cereal imports constituted 15,20-17,75% of the total value of imports -by far the most important import. To put a price on the above figures, Greece between 1926 and 1928 imported per year $20,7-34,7 million worth of grain and $4,4-8,5 million worth of machinery.

Now Greece has to pay much less hard currency to import grain, while more hard currency is earned by exporting cash crops. Therefore, I believe that Greece can invest much more hard currency to import machinery and industrialize faster.

source: https://www.persee.fr/doc/hism_0982-1783_2000_num_15_3_1798


The 80 million need to be seen in some perspective. TTL Greece is getting fewer refugees and where in OTL there were about 3 Greek refugees in 1928 (and even more in 1922) for each Muslim and Bulgarian exchanged, the analogy TTL is about 1 Greek (and Armenian) per 1.5 Turkish and Bulgarian. (side note, Turkey is still getting significantly fewer refugees than the number of Greeks and Armenians removed from its territory but has far less leeway to bungle their settlement compared to OTL) This on top of the larger economy and better exchange rate.

Grain wise Greece was in 1939 producing ~1,045,000 tons IMS (I should check Dertilis tables but I have the books in the other room :p ) and importing ~454,000 more. That's about 1.5 million tons for a population of 7.35 million cultivating a land area of 9261 square km ot of a total cultivated area of 21,900 square km (from Ploumidis Land and Meomry in the Balkans). This was up from 5008 out of 13,460 in 1929. Now TTL Greece would have a notably higher population hence but twice or more the order under cultivation.


Wait i just realized that the turco-cretans were not expelled...this could lessen the fear of the turkish-cypriots about enosis...in otl the turkish-cypriots feared that they like the turco-cretans were going to be the subject of an population transfer like the cretans were...i don't think that matters much if an eoka like situation develops in cyprus..but then again venizelos was against an armed solution to enosis..but he will not live forever....

Possibly, either way the Turkish government would likely want to meddle...
 
A note on agriculture
Minor note on Greek grain production, now that I have the right book handy:

Available wheat peaked up at about 204 kg per capita in 1938 OTL effectively returning to the 1911 consumption levels per capita (207kg) after it had fallen as low as 99kg per capita in 1923. This was being supplemented by a substantial addition of other grains, corn being the most important, that had peaked to 114 kg per capita in 1933 and had dropped slightly to 95 kg per capita in 1938 (and was down to 63kg in 1923). Effectively total grain consumption was averaging 300kg per capita by 1938 with the emphasis on wheat.

To stick thus to wheat as it was the one actually imported in large quantities. Tje table below covers OTL production

YearArea (km2)Production (t)Total agricultural area under cultivation
1914440435700013356
1923430023900012690
1928538035600015974
1933693077300020811
1938860598000024096
193992611045000?

Now in the modern era East Thrace has 6,200 square km under cultivation that produced 3 million tons of wheat, out of a total area of 78,150 km2 producing 17.25 million tons in 2017. In 1930 Turkey had 28,093 km2 under cultivation producing 2,586,000 tons. By 1940 it was up to 43,814 km2 and 4,068,000 tons. If we take the modern numbers as an indication, East Thrace would be producing something in the order of 390,000 to 610,000 tons out of that. On the other hand if using data from Karpat yield in 1930 would be about 115,000t with another 297,000t from Asia Minor. This may be closer to reality for 1922.

To continue by Karpat at a minimum East Thrace as of 1922 should be adding about 3,900 km of cultivated land (probably quite a bit more more as the numbers are from 1896 and for the whole Edirne vilayet, where given geography quite a bit more of the arable land would be in east Thrace with 35,000 km out of 40,000 being arable and 21% of that actually used) and Asia Minor another 10,600 km2. That's sightly more than the cultivated area in pre 1921 Greece and land reclamation could drastically increase this, in Macedonia swamp draining alone had claimed 2750 km2 in the 1920s and at least similar results are feasible in Thrace...

To go by the above TTL its reasonable to assume wheat yields as seen in the table below TTL:

YearProduction (t)
1928768,000
19331,612,000
19382,044,000
19392,180,000

By this Greece should be about breaking even in wheat production not needing imports by about 1933. By 1938 is should actually have a slight surplus. But the grand majority of this production is north of the Olympus and East of the Aegean...

On the other hand Turkey is missing roughly 21% of its wheat production it would be producing about 2,042,000t in 1930 and at a minimum 3-3,2 million t by 1940.
 

formion

Banned
@Lascaris thank you and kudos for this post! Really good research!

This new Greece has to import much less food. East Thrace and Asiatic Greece have also a decent production of barley, oilseeds and possibly livestock as well.

Between 1926 and 1929, OTL Greece imported $5-7,5 million worth of livestock. Moreover, Greece was a net importer of cotton, while Smyrna is a major cotton exporter.

If we add wheat, flour, corn, livestock, hides and cotton I think it is possible that Greece may avoid something like 20-25% of its OTL imports.

 

formion

Banned
The 80 million need to be seen in some perspective. TTL Greece is getting fewer refugees and where in OTL there were about 3 Greek refugees in 1928 (and even more in 1922) for each Muslim and Bulgarian exchanged, the analogy TTL is about 1 Greek (and Armenian) per 1.5 Turkish and Bulgarian. (side note, Turkey is still getting significantly fewer refugees than the number of Greeks and Armenians removed from its territory but has far less leeway to bungle their settlement compared to OTL) This on top of the larger economy and better exchange rate.
So, if I understand the gist of the post correctly, Greece would need a fair bit les than half of the otl 80mil resettlement fund? It makes sense.

Another aspect of the ratio you just mentioned could be the size of the average land-holding. The bane of the greek agriculture has been historically the small size of the land-holdings. Especially during the time in question, the very small size of farms was the cause of food insecurity and basically famine during bad harvest years. Perhaps, in TTL bigger lots can be assigned to refugees, especially after the land reclamation projects are finished.
 
Part 18 Of churches and mosques
London, July 17th 1922

Lloyd George had hoped that in the wake of his foreign policy successes both in the peace treaty with Ireland and the peace treaty with Turkey, the position of his coalition government would be practically unassailable. But the government had find itself in trouble from a direction it was not quite expecting. Since coming to power in 1916 the government had turned the sale of honours, an already established practice, into an industry having awarded 1,500 new knighthoods, large numbers of baronetcies and peerages and having even created the order of the British empire for people that could not afford a knighthood but were willing to pay for a title, with some 10,000 of these awarded. Things had come to a head with the July 1922 honour list including convicted criminals. The question had come to parliament and while Lloyd George had managed to deflect it through the creation of a Royal Commission on the matter his government was coming under increasing attack even from the inside. Lloyd George had had hopes of creating centre party with his Liberals and the more amenable of the Conservatives. But many of his own Liberals were against this as was the majority of the Conservatives. The coalition went on but under increasing strain.

Belgrade, July 28th 1922

Belgrade, now the capital of the kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, was quickly recovering from three years of Austro-Hungarian occupation. For the past week Belgrade was hosting negotiations between the prime ministers of Yugoslavia, Greece and Romania, Nikola Pasic, Eleutherios Venizelos and Ion Bratianu. The three prime ministers had led their countries through the Great War and closely worked together during it. Now it was time to formalize the cooperation between the three countries for the future. Yugoslavia and Romania had already created the "Little Entente" with Czechoslovakia. At the same time the idea of a similar Balkan Entente had been aired but had not been pursued as the war with Turkey had yet to be concluded. With that over, the time for the Balkan Entente had come. The most obvious benefit of the treaty was formalizing the commitment from all three countries to contain Bulgaria. At the same time Yugoslavia and Romania were securing their supply lines through Greece in case of a future war in central Europe, Greece secured her European border in case of renewed war with Turkey, in the most optimistic scenario even Yugoslav and Romania troop commitments even though that was unlikely. And while it was not being openly said Italian hostility was certainly in the back of the minds of both Greeks and Yugoslavs...

Constantinople, August 4th 1922

The treaty of Chantilly had included a provision that "important religious and cultural sites" should be restored to the Christian community while "important Muslim sites" would be protected and remain under Muslim control. How both provisions would be honoured simultaneously when many important mosques in the city were former churches was a can of worms that the negotiators had avoided to open, instead they had kicked it down the road to the council of allied commissioners that in effect ruled the city even though the fact that the presiding high commissioner was Greek did not exactly fill the Turks with trust. But Kemal, himself borderline or outright atheist had been more interested in not losing the Ottoman arsenals and war stocks in the city than he was on the fate of a couple mosques, while Venizelos was not going to waste concessions elsewhere for concerns where time was apparently working in the Greek favour anyway.

The new Greek patriarch Meletius IV with the support from his Catholic and Armenian counterpart in Constantinople had almost immediately demanded from the commissioners enacting the treaty and returning to the Christian churches, the religious sites taken over by the Ottomans since 1453. The commissioners, placed in a bind, set up a committee of their own with one member from each of the three great powers plus one Greek and one Turk. It had taken several months to reach a decision. The committee had start its work with the most easy issues. Hagia Eirene, near the Topkapi palace, was easy, it was being used as an army museum, the same was true for the Stoudiou monastery as it was in ruins constantly raided by nearby residents for building materials. Both would be returned to the Greek patriarchate with the Turkish government.

Things were rather more complicated for the over two dozen Orthodox and Catholic churches that had been converted to mosques and still existed throughout the city. Understandably both the Greek and Turkish members wanted all of them for their side. In the end the Catholic church did get back Arap Camii the former St Dominic at Galata, while the Greeks would get the churches of Pammakaristos, Sergius and Bacchus and the monasteries of Pantokrator and Chora would be returned to the Greek church due to their historical and architectural significance. Everything else would be left under Turkish control.

Last had been left the elephant in the room, Hagia Sophia. The Greeks wanted it, the Turks wanted it, even the pope renewed the claim made in 1915 that it should become a Catholic church on grounds of the Orthodox church being in union with Rome in 1437-1453 thus the church being actually Catholic when the city had fallen to the Ottomans. In the end the committee decided to turn Hagia Sophia into a museum allowing the Muslims to hold the Kurban bayrami (Eid al-Adha) and Ramazan bayrami (Eid al-Fitr) each year there and the Orthodox church to hold mass each year at Christmas, Theophany and Easter each year, both religions thus having Hagia Sophia for five days every year. It was a decision that left both sides unhappy. The open question was whether it was going to actually work out or lead to an even worse mess.
 
Well, the Hagia Sophia 'shared use' agreement while from the political perspective could somewhat it makes sense... But I'm not so sure about the theological one... Specifically that, would be acceptable for both religions or that 'd allows the use or to regular use, to hold or share their religious services in a still regularly used for another religion sacred building...
 
An entirely believable diplomatic compromise that has every chance of blowing up in everyone's faces. They say the best bargains are the ones where nobody is entirely happy. The trick is to avoid having everyone hate it. :p
 
Is there any chance for the Greeks to gain the Italian occupation zone like they inherited Rhodes at the end of WW2? What's the population like there?
On a side note that papal claim to Hagia Sophia made me laugh a bit. Great update as always. Can't wait to see more about Constantinople and the eventual Greek and Turkish attempts to get it back.
 
So your world has a Treaty of Chantilly, too?:)

As for the Hagia Sophia, there might indeed be problems when a Muslim bayram is coinciding with one of the Christian festivities.
 

formion

Banned
There is another problem: the christians will want to uncover the centuries-old christian iconography. There is no way in hell christian iconography can be allowed in an islamic mosque. I dont think this arrangement will last more than mere months or even weeks.
 
There is another problem: the christians will want to uncover the centuries-old christian iconography. There is no way in hell christian iconography can be allowed in an islamic mosque. I dont think this arrangement will last more than mere months or even weeks.
True. Who is going to be Director of that Hagia Sophia museum?
 
It would be better if Hagia Dophia would become only a museum and not have any religious activities take place there.
Om another note, this TL will change quite a lot the status in Greek sports. Two of the most prominent Greek sport clubs, A.E.K. and P.A.O.K., were formed from refugees from Constantinople in OTL. ITTL however, there will be no refugees from Constantinople. Perhaps the two clubs can be formed in Constantinople. In fact, the predecessor of both clubs in Constantinople was Pera Spor Kulübü . Below you can see the official websites of their football teams.
And of course in OTL there are a lot of other sport clubs in Greece made by refugees, like Panionios, Apollon Smyrnis, Apollon Pontou etc. The history of these clubs will be completely different ITTL.
 
It would be better if Hagia Dophia would become only a museum and not have any religious activities take place there.
It might seem practical on paper, but it would probably piss off a Great deal of the Greek public and the Orthodox Church. The "loss" of the Hagia Sophia and Constantinople has been a major symbol of Greek nationalism and history. Such a move would very likely be politically suicide for King Alexander or the government. The Blue Mosque which is right next to the Hagia Sophia would probably be open to serve as a mosque within the city. Either way things will be tense for both sides when WWII finally comes knocking. I could see Turkey or perhaps even Greece join the Axis powers in this alternate timeline. Though Greece's best bet in my opinion is to stay neutral as an amical regional power. This way it could play off the axis and allies against each other. Though if Turkey attacks it would likely have to join the Allies. I could see Mussolini here invade Yugoslavia since Greece here appears to be much more powerful and capable than in otl.

Perhaps the two clubs can be formed in Constantinople. In fact, the predecessor of both clubs in Constantinople was Pera Spor Kulübü . Below you can see the official websites of their football teams.
That sounds plausible.

Is there any chance for the Greeks to gain the Italian occupation zone like they inherited Rhodes at the end of WW2? What's the population like there?
If Italy joins the Axis like in otl, then Turkey might also join which means that by aiding the Allies, they'd likely gain that bit of Italian land in Anatolia. Plus with Greece holding potentially Constantinople, you could see it be a major battleground of the Cold War as control over the Dardanelles/Hellespont would make it of strategic interest to both sides. Turkey might end up as a satellite state of this alternate Soviet Union as part of the Iron curtain.
 
I think that a realistic PoD in WWI severely alters the course of subsequent events to make WWII unlikely to follow the same beats, even if the basic contours are evident already.
Just to give one curveball, Sun Yat Sen was of the opinion that Versailles would create a Sino-German-Russian alliance against the Entente. Russia-China-Germany vs France, Italy, Britain, and Japan is a very different WWII but an entirely plausible outcome given divergent developments Russia and Germany.

ETa- the biggest divergence is probably Italy. Do the Italians remain distant from the western Entente, preventing the Stress Front from forming? If so we could see an early anschluss and probably greater opposition to Mussolini's ambitions in Ethiopia and Spain.
 
Honestly this could led to many different outcomes for example Italy could instead focus colonial expansion towards Anatolia instead of Africa. Weaker Turkey plus worse relationships with the neighboring powers then OTL. Cilicia has always been a tempting target for Italian ambitions.
 
Well, the Hagia Sophia 'shared use' agreement while from the political perspective could somewhat it makes sense... But I'm not so sure about the theological one... Specifically that, would be acceptable for both religions or that 'd allows the use or to regular use, to hold or share their religious services in a still regularly used for another religion sacred building...

There are precedents St Dominic in Cordoba was split with half being a church and half a mosque for about 70 years, then was taken over completely by the Muslims. And the church of the Nativity has a part used for Muslim prayer for the past 14 centuries, the part doesn't even have icons to e more accomodating to the Muslims. Of course this has not been decreed by political decision...

I think that a realistic PoD in WWI severely alters the course of subsequent events to make WWII unlikely to follow the same beats, even if the basic contours are evident already.
Just to give one curveball, Sun Yat Sen was of the opinion that Versailles would create a Sino-German-Russian alliance against the Entente. Russia-China-Germany vs France, Italy, Britain, and Japan is a very different WWII but an entirely plausible outcome given divergent developments Russia and Germany.

Any major POD in WW1 is bound to have severe effects. Changing Greece and Turkey around late1920 will of course have its own effects but trends like the rise of the Nazis in Germany? That particular train wreck is too difficult derail.

An entirely believable diplomatic compromise that has every chance of blowing up in everyone's faces. They say the best bargains are the ones where nobody is entirely happy. The trick is to avoid having everyone hate it. :p

Why it looks like a good nice compromise... at the time of decision. :angel:

Is there any chance for the Greeks to gain the Italian occupation zone like they inherited Rhodes at the end of WW2? What's the population like there?
On a side note that papal claim to Hagia Sophia made me laugh a bit. Great update as always. Can't wait to see more about Constantinople and the eventual Greek and Turkish attempts to get it back.

At this point the Italian zone has about 54,000 Greeks and 238,000 Turks. The Dodecanese has about 102,000 more Greeks and maybe 2-3,000 Turks. The Greeks in the mainland are also heavily concentrated in certain areas, over half are in Soke district, right in the border between Greek Ionia and the Italian zone and another 20,000 are in the Makri/Fethiye, Halicaranasus/Bodrum and Miletus/Milas districts.

So your world has a Treaty of Chantilly, too?:)

As for the Hagia Sophia, there might indeed be problems when a Muslim bayram is coinciding with one of the Christian festivities.

That's something that needs to be dealt with when the time comes. But the first time to happen is in 1974 when the third day of the Kurban bayram coincides with the Theophany in January 6th and the the first day of the next Kurban bayram coincides with Christmas. Interesting year...

There is another problem: the christians will want to uncover the centuries-old christian iconography. There is no way in hell christian iconography can be allowed in an islamic mosque. I dont think this arrangement will last more than mere months or even weeks.

Of course the iconography will be uncovered. Why it's a museum remember? :p How the Muslims deal with it? His majesty the not quite sultan has put curtains I believe this year...

It would be better if Hagia Dophia would become only a museum and not have any religious activities take place there.
Om another note, this TL will change quite a lot the status in Greek sports. Two of the most prominent Greek sport clubs, A.E.K. and P.A.O.K., were formed from refugees from Constantinople in OTL. ITTL however, there will be no refugees from Constantinople. Perhaps the two clubs can be formed in Constantinople. In fact, the predecessor of both clubs in Constantinople was Pera Spor Kulübü . Below you can see the official websites of their football teams.
And of course in OTL there are a lot of other sport clubs in Greece made by refugees, like Panionios, Apollon Smyrnis, Apollon Pontou etc. The history of these clubs will be completely different ITTL.

I actually have a pretty good idea what happens to both Panionios and Apollon. AEK and PAOK... why they do not exist, their parent A.S.P. (Athlitikos Syllogos Peran) the Pera Sports Club is very much around. What I'm actually not certain about is... Olympiakos (and Ethnikos). Its parents Peiraikos Syndesmos and Peiraiki Enosi are still very much around and their football teams are due to unite to the APS Piraeus (Athlitikos Podosfairikos sullogos Peiraios) in late 1923. But why this one broke up into Olympiakos and Ethnikos within a year afterwards?

It might seem practical on paper, but it would probably piss off a Great deal of the Greek public and the Orthodox Church. The "loss" of the Hagia Sophia and Constantinople has been a major symbol of Greek nationalism and history. Such a move would very likely be politically suicide for King Alexander or the government. The Blue Mosque which is right next to the Hagia Sophia would probably be open to serve as a mosque within the city.

The Blue mosque is still very much under Turkish control and in operation. As is Fatih and Suleymaniye of course. Some Greeks would probably want to see Fatih turned to a church as it's built in the place of the demolished Holy Apostles but any such ideas were rejected out of hand by saner heads, the Greek government included.
 
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