Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
%Well, given the precise time and in what context that was chosen (by Stalin) to bring it up, I'd think that it, perhaps, may be intended a way to pressure to the Greek government and their British allies...
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Well, let's hope Churchill doesn't throw Greece under the bus here.
I think it's more the soviets making sure their navy can sail out of Constantinople more than anything. I don't think the soviets can contest an Wally held Constantinople.
Precisely!
I think that in this timeline, Germany will end up even more stretched thin after a Kursk equivalent. In TTL, the Allies are more powerful in the Mediterranean: the Commonwealth has not suffered the OTL grievous losses in North Africa. For example, the 2nd Armoured and 2nd South African divisions have not been destroyed. So when Tunisia is finally cleared, they have two very powerful armies in reserve. I expect by summer 1943 that a third (american) army will be ready as well.
I very much agree that as long as the Germans think they can beat the USSR, their focus will be there. The WAllies won't sit idle until July 1943 and the Tunisian Campaign will be wrapped up before the end of 1942. Therefore, I expect for the Invasion of Sicily to take place a bit sooner and the Allies to try a breakout from Smyrna towards the Marmara Sea. In that case, the turkish war effort collapses in 1943, releasing the greatest part of the 28-30 Allied divisions engaged there. However, I expect that we will have an Italian Armistice in this timeline as well. That would be huge. Securing north Italy is much more important for Germany compared to the Greek Front.
10 divisions are indeed a game changer but only when we take their composition and quality into account. A field army of 10 divisions, most of which are panzer, panzer grenadier and mountain infantry will be a game changer. But an army with just a couple armoured or mechanized divisions and the rest being regular infantry won't be a grave danger, especially not when Béthouart's and Slim's armies are available. The Heer has only a finite number of these elite formations and I believe they would prioritize Italy over Greece.
Defeat in Detail window closed for now for the Axis side. With Artvin under control the Black Sea and Caucasus fronts are now reliably connected.
Which can have a chance to backfire in the future. The fact that Stalin mentioned the matter and possible regime change should alarm Churchill and Roosevelt over his type of behavior. Soviets post war status could possibly get weakened because of this matter.
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The Axis cannot suffer a defeat in detail in the soviet front. But the Allies can inflict a defeat in detail in the turkish theater of operations. A sensible policy would have been to abandon Cilicia as soon as Alexandretta was captured. The Taurus forms an excellent bastion that would allow them to economize forces for the Caucasus. But with choosing to fight in Cilicia they are facing a superior opponent with significantly more and better armor. Bethuart and Slim are very good generals and Slim had excellent situational awareness. They also have superior tanks compared to OTL. Therefore, I think that the Battle of Cilicia will be very costly for Turkey in terms of experienced manpower and material.
Come spring 1943, the Allies have large uncommitted reserves in North Africa and the Turks are stretched thin. They went through a meatgrinder in Cilicia and another one in the Caucasus. They have to deal with three and a half fronts: We cannot discount the guerillas lead by Lawrence of Kurdistan, not when they operate across the Caucasus Front's lines of communication and around the valuable chromite ore mines of Elazig. The Western Allies can choose where to concentrate: it could be Smyrna for a breakout or it could be a landing in Antalya to outflank Taurus.
By the way, I think that one potential butterfly of an Axis Turkey is the total destruction of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet. In OTL, the soviet warships found refuge in Poti and Batum. Now the Axis have just captured these ports, while it makes sense to concentrate on eradicating the soviet naval threat to their logistics and communication with Turkey. Between a lack of bases, the Luftwaffe and the remnants of the Turkish Navy, I cannot see how the Black Sea Fleet can survive 1942. That development would be interesting since it reduces the soviet assets and power projection in the Black Sea for at least a few years. It might produce some butterflies over the Strait's Question and the soviet policy in the region.
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So I’ve had a thought. If Turkey falls significantly earlier than the other axis powers, does it get a lighter peace deal? It’s already in a pretty shaky position, so it isn’t hard to see in falling a year or more before the rest. Does that get it a lighter peace deal, a harsher one, or does it even matter?
I will say that Stalins interaction here isn’t gonna win him any friends. I’m not sure if something similar happened OTL but it already shows his feelings for national sovereignty. Also if word of him trying to take Constantinople for himself reaches the Greek communists, it might cause a bit of a split in the group depending on how they view the city.
I will say that Stalins interaction here isn’t gonna win him any friends. I’m not sure if something similar happened OTL but it already shows his feelings for national sovereignty. Also if word of him trying to take Constantinople for himself reaches the Greek communists, it might cause a bit of a split in the group depending on how they view the city.
Greek communists were willing to cede Thrace and Macedonia during the interwar years..
That is crazy! Were they willing to sell half their country just to rule the rump version of it?
Well the party saw that Macedonia and thrace were taken by greece in an imperialistic way
Appendix Allied forces in Near East & Mediterranean August 1942
Balkans Theater of Operations (Theodore Pangalos, chief of staff Alexandros Othonaios)
i
GHQ Reserve
Mediterranean and Middle East Command (Archibald Wavell)
Anatolian Front
i
GHQ Reserve
- III Armoured Division (Andreas Kallinskis)
- VI Infantry Division (Leonidas Spaes)
- III Airborne brigade (Thraymboulos Tsakalotos)
- 10th Paratrooper Regiment
- 2nd Raiding Regiment (Christodoulos Tsigantes)
- 1st Greek Army (Dimitrios Katheniotis, chief of staff Markos Drakos)
- A Corps (Charalambos Katsimitros)
- I Infantry Division (Basileios Brachnos)
- Archipelago division (Efstathios Liosis)
- 1st Armoured Cavalry Division (Ioannis Tsaggaridis)
- 1st Mountain Brigade (Christos Karassos)
- C Corps (Georgios Dromazos)
- IX Infantry Division, Thessaloniki (Stefanos Sarafis)
- Crete Division (Emmanuel Tzanakakis)
- 2nd Armoured Cavalry Division (Sokratis Demaratos)
- ANZAC Corps (Bernard Freyberg)
- 9th Australian Division
- 2nd New Zealand Division
- 85th British Infantry brigade
- 1st Free Polish Corps (Wladislaw Anders)
- 1 Dywizja Grenadierów
- 2 Dywizja Strzelców Pieszych
- 4 Dywizja Piechoty
- A Corps (Charalambos Katsimitros)
- 3rd Yugoslav Army group (Milorad Petrovic)
- 3rd Army (Jovan Naumovic)
- 5th Infantry Division Šumadijska
- 20th Infantry Division Bregalnička
- 5th Army (Vladimir Cukavac)
- 31st Infantry Division Kosovska
- 34th Infantry Division Toplička
- 2nd Cavalry Division
- 2e Corps Armee Francaise Libre (Antone Bethouart)
- 1re Division Francaise Libre
- 2e Division Francaise Libre
- 3rd Army (Jovan Naumovic)
- B Corps (Georgios Stanotas)
- II Infantry Division (Euripidis Bakirtzis)
- IV Infantry Division (Emmanuel Mantakas)
- VIII Infantry Division (Napoleon Zervas)
- 2nd Mountain Brigade (Sotirios Moutousis)
- Army of Asia Minor (Ptolemaios Sarigiannis, chief of staff Demetrios Papadopoulos)
- D Army Corps (Georgios Kosmas)
- VII Infantry Division (Ignatios Kallergis)
- XI Infantry Division (Demetrios Giantzis)
- E Army Corps (Ioannis Alexakis)
- V Infantry division (Konstantinos Ventiris)
- X Infantry Division (Panagiotis Spiliotopoulos)
- XVI Infantry division (Demetrios Psarros)
- 10th Archipelago Infantry Regiment, Samos
- 75th Infantry Regiment, Lesvos
- 11th Archipelago Infantry Regiment, Rhodes
- 12th Archipelago Infantry Regiment, Kos
- D Army Corps (Georgios Kosmas)
Mediterranean and Middle East Command (Archibald Wavell)
Anatolian Front
- Armee D' Orient (Jean De Lattre De Tassigny)
- 1ere Corps Armee Francaise Libre
- 86e Division d'infanterie Africaine
- 191e Division Infanterie
- 192e Division Infanterie
- 3e Division Blindee
- 1ere Corps Armee Francaise Libre
- British 9th Army (William Slim)
- III Corps
- 6th Indian Division
- 8th Indian Division
- 31st Indian Armoured Division
- Arab Legion Brigade group
- XVIII Corps
- 5th Indian Division
- 10th Indian Division
- 1st Armoured Brigade
- 1st Jewish Infantry Brigade
- III Corps
- Iranian Army
- 1st Infantry Division
- 2nd Infantry Division
- 3rd Infantry Division
- Cavalry Brigade
- British 8th Army (Richard O'Connor)
- XIII Corps
- 1st Armoured Division
- 4th Indian Division
- 50th Infantry Division
- 1st Army Tank Brigade
- 32nd Army Tank Brigade
- XXX Corps
- 7th Armoured Division
- 1st South African Division
- 2nd South African Division
- 9th Armoured Brigade
- XIII Corps
- Armee d' Afrique (Alphonse Juin)
- XIX Corps Armee
- 2e Division d'Infanterie Marocaine
- 3e Division d'Infanterie Algérienne
- 4e Division Marocaine de Montagne
- 7e Division d'Infanterie Algérienne
- II US Army Corps (Lloyd Fredenhall)
- 3rd Infantry Division
- 34th Infantry Division
- V British Corps
- 44th Infantry Division
- 51st Infantry Division
- 23rd Armoured Brigade
- 24th Armoured Brigade
- XIX Corps Armee
- 10th Armoured Division (Egypt)
- 1st Assyrian Brigade
- 2nd Assyrian Brigade
- 1st Kurdish brigade
- 2nd Kurdsh brigade
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That was IOTL, when Greece had suffered the Asia Minor Catastrophe.
ITTL the Greek labour class of Smyrna, East Thrace, Macedonia at which the KKE should gave an appeal, wouldn't appreciate much a similar stance. Furthermore IMHO the KKE doesn't seem to have any reason to support sucha a development or rhetoric.
Even IOTL the KKE changed its policy twice, according to the Greek public feeling: in the Interwar it seems that the leadership only was in favour of such a development, and that only to please Stalin and get some support. Then, in WWII it abandoned this idea in the framework of the Greek National Resistance. KKE fully supported ceding Macedonia during the Civil War, in a desperate effort to get Stalin's support, in the expence on Greece, but also that of Yugoslavia: waht Zachariades implied was a Socialist Republic of Macedonia-Thrace, part of a Socialist Balkan Federation.
This method can also be applied to Bulgaria. Bulgaria has a higher chance of surrendering or being occupied by Greeks/British/etc then the Soviets in OTL. The lack of a land border/historical animosity with the Soviet Union helps unlike with Turkey.
If the Soviet Union doesn’t occupy Bulgaria the Soviets will lack influence over the straits question.
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We do not know what the popular base for the Left in Greece is in this timeline. That is important. Not sure if in the Smyrna/Izmir region the working class is mainly Greek. Probably Pontian Greek refugees, Anatolian Muslims, and local Jews but Lascaris probably can provide the ITL facts.
The Asia Minor Catastrophe and its consequences was such a monumental event in the formation of the popular masses that would support the Socialist Left in Greece that absent it the sociological dynamics supporting a mass Left movement will have to be very different.
The Asia Minor Catastrophe and its consequences was such a monumental event in the formation of the popular masses that would support the Socialist Left in Greece that absent it the sociological dynamics supporting a mass Left movement will have to be very different.
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The Macedonian Slavs were a key support group for the Greek Communists IOTL and likely ITTL as well, as nothing has really changed for them.
Considering everything else (Ionia) the Republicans (idk what to call them but Greece's a republic now sooooo) should be much bigger and it'd be less of a fight than otl considering the Republic of Greece is a regime the people of Greece want, and Greece's army should be much better than otl and they have a much better hand against both the communists and the Axis ittl.