Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Part 99
Prague, April 27th, 1942

Karel Svoboda and Jozef Gabcik, quietly waited for the car carrying Reinhard Heydrich from his home to office to show up. As soon as it did Svoboda threw an anti-tank grenade at it heavily damaging it. The wounded Heydrich and his driver instantly jumped out of the car pistols drawn to take on their assailants. It would prove a fatal mistake as Gabcik and Svoboda cut them down with their Sten guns. Heydrich would be found dead on the street by pedestrians while both Czechoslovak agents escaped...

Salzburg, April 29th, 1942

Adolf Hitler was ranting, Or giving a strongly opinionated speech to Benito Mussolini and count Ciano if someone wanted to be more charitable. Either way the two Italian leaders were being harangued about Italy providing more troops for the fight against the Soviets. Harangue or not it worked as Mussolini agreed to expand the ARMIR in Russia to a full army of 9 divisions and commit the 131st Centauro armoured division alongside the Taurinense, Pusteria and Alpi Graie Alpini divisions to the Caucasus front.

Syria and Kurdistan, April 29th, 1942

The British 9th army and the French Armee d'Orient, with some 252,000 men between them, resumed the attack. On the Turkish side general Nafiz Gürman, now in command of the Turkish 2nd army after Fahrettin Altay had been moved to command the Caucasus front, could count upon nearly 299,000 men, including a German corps with about 45,000 men and the Italian Centauro division. But while the Turks, Germans and Italians had only slightly over 200 tanks available, Slim and De Lattre, the latter recently promoted in the place of Mittelhauser, had nearly 600...

Varese, Italy, May 2nd, 1942

The first dozen C.205 fighters using the more powerful DB605 engine, start being assembled in the Macchi aircraft factory. No aircraft would reach Regia Aeronautica units before September and less than a hundred delivered by the end of the year. With the first Spitfires delivered to Allied air forces in the Mediterranean back in March the new aircraft was sorely needed. It was hardly the only new fighter aircraft being introduced by the Axis air forces. FIAT G.55 and Reggiane Re.2005 both with DB605 engines were also entering production, the latter also in Turkey's TOMTAS fighter while the Romanians were feverishly working on a BMW801 engined variant of their IAR.80 fighter following acquisition of the necessary engine licence the previous February. By comparison the latest German single engine fighter Bf-109G was distinctly unimpressive. Messerschmitt was of course preparing a replacement design, Me 309, but till it flew no-one could be certain of its performance.

Epirus May 3rd, 1942

One more Italian division reached the frontline, bringing the total strength of the Italian 9th Army to 8. Nevertheless the Greek advance continued...

Coral Sea, May 4th, 1942

Aircraft start taking off the carriers Shokaku and Zuikaku, following a report that US carriers had been sighted, from one of the floatplanes from the cruisers that accompanied the Japanese force. They were hardly the only aircraft in the air, near simultaneously an American scout plane had detected the Japanese and admiral Fletcher's carriers, USS Yorktown and USS Wasp had begun launching their aircraft. Over the next four days, the battle, only the second after that of Ceylon the previous month to be fought solely between carriers would end up inconclusively. USS Wasp would be sunk and USS Yorktown heavily damaged on the American side but the Japanese would also lose the carrier Shoho while Zuikaku was heavily damaged. Both Zuikaku and Shokaku would be unavailable for the coming months...

Algiers, May 7th, 1942

The British 23rd and 24th armoured brigades start unloading. As soon as units were moved to the train stations to be sent east, were despite French resistance Rommel kept advancing westwards from Tunis. Initial plans had called for sending the two brigades to the Middle East. But with French North Africa switching sides to the Allies there was no point to waste two months to go around Africa...

Kharkov, May 12th, 1942

Over 750,000 Soviet soldiers with about 2,000 tanks and self propelled guns attacked in the hope of liberating Kharkov. But over the next two weeks the attack would turn into a disaster with 277,000 casualties for barely a tenth as many German casualties...

Bizani, Epirus, May 16th, 1942

A generation before during the 1st Balkan war, the Greek army had been held back for months before the forts of Bizani. Now the Italians had finally stopped its advance in the very same area. Over the past month, the Greeks had managed to liberate Arta and Prevesa, the latter would come handy supplying the army in Epirus. The advance had not come cheap though, Greek casualties were in excess of 8,000 men, Italian losses had been even heavier at about 11,000.

Imphal, May 20th, 1942

The remnants of the retreating Allied armies reached Imphal as the growing monsoon season gave them a temporary respite from the Japanese advance. But Burma had been lost to the Japanese who in four and a half months had advanced some 2,500 kilometers winning nearly three dozen battles...

Bone, Algeria, May 28th, 1942

The Afrika Korps offensive came to a halt. The two German Panzer divisions had advanced 170 km and inflicted nearly 20,000 casualties on general Juin's forces but had failed to destroy the Amee d'Afrique. Meanwhile in Eastern Tunisia the Italians along two German divisions had steadfastly held the Mareth line against the attacks of O'Connor's 8th army destroying nearly 200 tanks. Italo Balbo and Erwin Rommel were more than worried despite what on paper appeared to be an Axis victory. In East Tunisia, the British now had a railroad going all the way from Tripoli to the front and were steadily increasing Tripoli's port capacity. In Algeria the first non French reinforcements had already shown up and there was every reason to believe that more would be showing up sooner rather than later...

Turkish-Syrian border, May 29th, 1942

General De Lattre, was photographed as he raised the French flag over one of the border outposts. Further east in Kurdistan the Turks had managed to hold back Slim's 9th army, but in here they had been pushed back all the way to the pre-war border. Which aside from propaganda also meant the Baghdad railroad was back under Allied control...

Cologne, May 30th, 1942

1,103 RAF bombers hit the city, dropping nearly 1,500 tons of bombs onto it. 43 bombers would be shot down but this was just the opening act of the bombing campaign against Germany...
 
Last edited:
That's a big amount for Greece. It means at least 70.000 dead and the same number unable to fight again. This unless prisoners are also included.
Not really..i mean sure greece has taken some big losses but she is still in the fight and if the US can supply enough arms to greece the greek army can expand dramatically
 
Did they start expanding the rail way from amfiloxia to bizani?
On average they expand the railroad at about 1km a day. Epirus is the only place to expand at the moment...
That's a big amount for Greece. It means at least 70.000 dead and the same number unable to fight again. This unless prisoners are also included.
Fighting a three front war even with allied support isn't cheap...
Not really..i mean sure greece has taken some big losses but she is still in the fight and if the US can supply enough arms to greece the greek army can expand dramatically
The Greeks have about 391,000 men serving in May 1942 with the Allied armies in the Balkans around 594,000 men. This barring disasters is going to be increasing into 1942-43...
These are higher military casualies than OTL but there are fewer civilian casualies ITTL and the population of Greece is also quite higher than IOTL.
Fewer civilian casualties... remains to be seen.
 
Adolf Hitler was ranting, Or giving a strongly opinionated speech to Benito Mussolini and count Ciano if someone wanted to be more charitable. Either way the two Italian leaders were being harangued about Italy providing more troops for the fight against the Soviets. Harangue or not it worked as Mussolini agreed to expand the ARMIR in Russia to a full army of 9 divisions and commit the 131st Centauro armoured division alongside the Taurinense, Pusteria and Alpi Graie Alpini divisions to the Caucasus front.
It seems that the Italians will be stretched thin. And the Alpini were good quality formations and they will be sorely missed from the Greek Front. Oh well... :D


Syria and Kurdistan, April 29th, 1942
How is the Lawrence led Kurdish Uprising going?

The first dozen C.205 fighters using the more powerful DB605 engine, start being assembled in the Macchi aircraft factory. No aircraft would reach Regia Aeronautica units before September and less than a hundred delivered by the end of the year.
A few months earlier compared to OTL. Of course, at this point it doesn't matter a lot...

USS Wasp would be sunk and USS Yorktown heavily damaged on the American side but the Japanese would also lose the carrier Shoho while Zuikaku was heavily damaged. Both Zuikaku and Shokaku would be unavailable for the coming months...
So, for Midway the USN will have Saratoga, Enterprise and Hornet while the IJN has Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu. 3 vs 3 compared to OTL 3 vs 4.

The British 23rd and 24th armoured brigades start unloading
I think in TTL it is possible to see a full 8th Armoured. There was no real need to complete the division in Egypt - with other armoured divisions being present, but that is not the case for FNA. If anything the British have more reasons to provide it with infantry and any other support units.
 
It seems that the Italians will be stretched thin. And the Alpini were good quality formations and they will be sorely missed from the Greek Front. Oh well... :D
The Italans have 38 divisions in the Balkans. 17 are tied down in occupation duties. Which leaves 21 for active operations. That's fewer than what the had in Albania in 1941...
How is the Lawrence led Kurdish Uprising going?
As lpng the knights of St George are readily available...
A few months earlier compared to OTL. Of course, at this point it doesn't matter a lot...
Side effects of Wever and lean Hermann...
I think in TTL it is possible to see a full 8th Armoured. There was no real need to complete the division in Egypt - with other armoured divisions being present, but that is not the case for FNA. If anything the British have more reasons to provide it with infantry and any other support units.
Compared to OTL the British have actually suffered lighter casualties overall, just Gazala cost 50,000 men. 2nd South African division is still around. So are 32nd tank brigade and 1st armoured brigade. Plus of course the 85th Infantry brigade that TTL was the garrison of Constantinople and is at the moment in Thessaly.
 
Part 100
Alexandretta, June 1st, 1942

The city fell to De Lattre's army. But the allied attack we slowing down to a crawl from stiff Turkish resistance...

Midway, 7:10 June 4th, 1942

Admiral Nagumo was in a dilemma. He had already launched a first air strike on US positions on Midway island, while simultaneously sending out scout planes to search out for the US fleet. No reports were back so far but he had to decide what to do with his reserve aircraft. Since no American planes had been detected so far, perhaps the best idea was to use them against the island as well. As he was about to give out the order to arm his dive bombers for a land strike and rearm his torpedo bombers with bombs the report from one of Chikuma's scout planes came in. The Americans were after all out in force. Nagumo ordered to prepare a naval strike...

Midway, 07:55 June 4th, 1942


116 aircraft took off from the US carriers...

Midway, 08:35 June 4th, 1942


The Japanese reserve aircraft start taking off from Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu.

Midway, 11:15 June 4th, 1942

The Japanese aircraft turned back for their own fleet. Their strikes had turned USS Yorktown into a burning wreck while USS Hornet hit by three torpedoes and several bombs was sinking. But the Japanese aviators had problems of their own, they did not have any place to land any more. Fifty minutes earlier USN aircraft had successfully attacked all three Japanese carriers. Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu had not sunk, yet. But all three were blazing infernos with no chance of being salvaged. The battle of Midway was effectively over. And if casualties had been heavy for the US they were a disaster for Japan...

Nineveh, June 8th, 1942


The ceremony could be taking place in nearby Mosul. But there were certain symbolisms to be made as the units of the 1st and 2nd Assyrian brigades received their flags from general Slim. Over 8,000 volunteers had flocked to the colours since Mosul had been liberated three months earlier joining the 2,000 already serving. Both brigades had been mostly armed with weapons captured from the Turks and the Iraqis over the previous months, which made their use in the front questionable, at least till they got properly rearmed but were more than sufficient in keeping lines of communications secure...

Pantelleria, June 12th, 1942

Allied sailors had nicknamed the straits between Tunisia and Sicily bomb alley as German and Italian aircraft kept attacking any ships that tried to cross them or to supply Malta. Allied aircraft in Western Libya, Algeria and Malta helped to fend off enemy aircraft at least to a degree but the Germans and Italians were too strong to be seriously challenged in the air. And yet Malta had to be kept in supply and the Germans and Italians in Tunisia to be kept out of supply. Thus operations had been launched simultaneously from Algiers and Alexandria to sweep the strait from enemy shipping and also supply Malta. Fighting over the next five days would prove that the Regia Marina, when operating for a change with strong air support was not an enemy to be underestimated. The Allies would manage to sink a cruiser and damage the battleship Giulio Cesare. But the Allies would lose a cruiser and five destroyers of their own and fail to seal off Tunis.

Royal palace, Baghdad, June 15th, 1942

Abdullah I, king of the Arabs was in a quandary. Up in the north both the Kurds and the Assyrians had proclaimed their independence. Abdullah had not recognised either of course and under British pressure both Mustafa Barzani, the self proclaimed president of Kurdistan, and Malik Khoshaba his Assyrian counterpart were negotiating over a possible compromise, Abdullah was offering to both extended autonomy in exchange for remaining within Iraq, but it was questionable either would accept such a compromise. In the meantime both the Kurds and the Assyrians had more men under arms. The Arab Legion had slightly more than 7,000 men at the moment, Barzani had over 8,000 and the Assyrians nearly 10,000. It was true that his own men were all regulars, from tribes loyal to him and unlike either the Kurds or the Assyrians armed with modern British weapons, but numbers had a quality of their own...

Syria, June 20th, 1942

The allied offensive the the Middle East finally came to a halt after fifty three days of fighting. In truth Turkish counterattacks had mostly arrested Allied progress for the last three weeks. But Slim and De Lattre had kept attacking even though they had gained no more than 15 km. Attrition was favouring the Allies particularly when the Turkish army was chronically deficient in tanks and artillery. Nearly 28,000 men had been lost since the start of the battle, while Allied casualties were hardly a quarter as many.

Dublin, June 24th, 1942

Michael Collins and Cordell Hull shook hands in front of the cameras. Ireland had joined the war back in December but the Irish army had seen no action yet, as it almost completely lacked heavy equipment. Britain while making some shipments of mostly light arms as well as a handful of old 18 pounders and 4.5in Howitzers would had preferred for the Irish to serve under British command, it had been even proposed to reconstitute the 10th Irish Infantry division for the purpose. Collins had outright refused and turned instead to the Americans for help. The United States were of course already providing Lend Lease, but completely rearming the Irish army to serve as an independent formation as Collins was proposing was placing bigger logistical difficulties at a time Allied logistics were stressed thin and potentially more pressing needs existed. But American mid-term elections were coming in November and the Irish-American vote was very much needed. it wouldn't look good to the voters if the US government refused to help arm the Irish to fight Hitler. Particularly if it looked that British interference was a factor...

Erzurum, June 28th, 1942

THK Bf-109s, TOMTAS Atmaca and Dewoitine D.520 fighters, 57 had been delivered by Germany to the Turks, strafed Soviet positions as artillery rained down on the Soviets as Turkish LeO-451, Do-217 and He-111 bombers struck targets further inland. From Lake Van to the Black sea coast 414,000 Turkish, German and Italian soldiers under Fahrettin Altay were attacking, the attack made to coincide with the German offensive in the Soviet Union towards the Caucasus...
 
Slightly worse Midway but not bad enough that I think too many butterflies occur. Case Blue begins! This is where an Axis Turkey could really make a difference, yet of 415,000 soldiers most are Turkish and I'm not sure if the Germans have enough extra equipment for that many troops. Also while the Wallied advance out of Iraq and Syria is stalled, 250,000 allied soldiers or whatever it is now, is still a major threat especially if the stalwart Turkish defenders are stripped of resources for the Caucasus Front. Let's see where this goes!
 
The allied offensive the the Middle East finally came to a halt after fifty three days of fighting. In truth Turkish counterattacks had mostly arrested Allied progress for the last three weeks. But Slim and De Lattre had kept attacking even though they had gained no more than 15 km.
15km ??? Good news indeed!

So in June 1st de Lattre captures Alexandretta. It makes certain sense that the next Axis line of defence is across the narrow, hilly, wooded neck between the Amanus Mountains and the sea. Then, the Allies managed to advance another 15km in the next three weeks. That means that they are basically out of the extremely narrow and defencible coastal plain between the mountains and the sea. The broad plains of Cilicia are opened now for an Allied Offensive.

The Taurus won't be breached of course, but air bases in Cilicia mean that the railroads carrying supplies and men to the Armenian Front will be within range of fighter escort.

But American mid-term elections were coming in November and the Irish-American vote was very much needed. it wouldn't look good to the voters if the US government refused to help arm the Irish to fight Hitler. Particularly if it looked that British interference was a factor...
And after all, equipment for a single division can be easily found. There is less of an urgency for American troops in the ETO. Perhaps a National Guard division can be sent later.


I wonder if the Soviets would pressure the allies to conduct some offensive operations against turkey to relieve the Caucasus front
I think Stalin will be screaming for an offensive against Turkey. After all the WAllies have three open fronts with Turkey one of which is supported by one of the biggest harbors in this side of the Mediterranean...
 
I think Stalin will be screaming for an offensive against Turkey. After all the WAllies have three open fronts with Turkey one of which is supported by one of the biggest harbors in this side of the Mediterranean...
Hopefully we see a Symrna offensive with the Greeks, Bri'ish and America in the helm. At least get to like pre war borders and Caria.
 
Tell if I'm wrong but did the Allies defend Indonesia ITTL? with the British defense on Sri Lanka and the Japanese naval loses I lost any major landings on Sumatra or Java or any destruction of the Allied fleet there. If that is the case then a counter attack against Japan especially with a very well preserved British , and Dutch, force could secure almost naval dominance if they unite with the Americans or attack from 2 sides to split the Japanese navy. This Midway has the same effect on Japan but the Americans payed a heavier price which could mean that the British would have more strategic say on what is going to happen at least till the major American ships factory start spewing ships.

The Iraqi situation is getting really interesting with 4 factions in already (Arab Kingdom, Assyria, Kurdistan and Iran) and with the British overlooking. I can't see how this isn't going to get messy after the war.

Case Blue is here and it's bigger and more ambitious than OTL. I can't see major breakthroughs in Anatolia due to the terrain but certainly the Soviets will be in a major pinch when the Axis will be on both sides of the Caucasus. A drive towards Baku could be pushed better maybe through the South and maybe the Germans don't split their Army Group South in 2 and go only towards Stalingrad or even if they split they have different composition favoring more heavily the Stalingrad front. That could create a lot of problems. On the other hand the Northern route is easier as it is more flatlands and it has more glory for Wehrmacht so maybe they will go just OTL. Either way the Soviets will fall back hard for some months but they have the opportunity to really hurt the Southern attack with what that includes for the Turkish manpower pool.

I like the fact that this TL is so consistent. I feel like getting my dose of Alt-History just enough per week.
 
15km ??? Good news indeed!

So in June 1st de Lattre captures Alexandretta. It makes certain sense that the next Axis line of defence is across the narrow, hilly, wooded neck between the Amanus Mountains and the sea. Then, the Allies managed to advance another 15km in the next three weeks. That means that they are basically out of the extremely narrow and defencible coastal plain between the mountains and the sea. The broad plains of Cilicia are opened now for an Allied Offensive.

The Taurus won't be breached of course, but air bases in Cilicia mean that the railroads carrying supplies and men to the Armenian Front will be within range of fighter escort.
Battle of issus part three:electro-mechanical boogaloo
 
Slightly worse Midway but not bad enough that I think too many butterflies occur. Case Blue begins! This is where an Axis Turkey could really make a difference, yet of 415,000 soldiers most are Turkish and I'm not sure if the Germans have enough extra equipment for that many troops. Also while the Wallied advance out of Iraq and Syria is stalled, 250,000 allied soldiers or whatever it is now, is still a major threat especially if the stalwart Turkish defenders are stripped of resources for the Caucasus Front. Let's see where this goes!
The Turks are hardly armed up to German standards in their entirety but an increasing number of units is better armed as time goes by...
I wonder if the Soviets would pressure the allies to conduct some offensive operations against turkey to relieve the Caucasus front
Almost certainly...
15km ??? Good news indeed!

So in June 1st de Lattre captures Alexandretta. It makes certain sense that the next Axis line of defence is across the narrow, hilly, wooded neck between the Amanus Mountains and the sea. Then, the Allies managed to advance another 15km in the next three weeks. That means that they are basically out of the extremely narrow and defencible coastal plain between the mountains and the sea. The broad plains of Cilicia are opened now for an Allied Offensive.
Not just yet. On the coast the front is roughly on Sariseki, the modern Kanyon park. Of course a cynic might note who controls the sea and who not in the case of the Cilician front...
The Taurus won't be breached of course, but air bases in Cilicia mean that the railroads carrying supplies and men to the Armenian Front will be within range of fighter escort.
From Mosul, Erzurum is nearly within Spitfire combat range (400km). From Aleppo Sivas is within Spitfire range (though at the edge of it)...

And after all, equipment for a single division can be easily found. There is less of an urgency for American troops in the ETO. Perhaps a National Guard division can be sent later.
I would estimate the Irish army potentially at about 70,000 men or so. 56,502 served with it in OTL, add to this 27,840 volunteers from Eire to the British army in OTL, you get to a manpower pool of 84,342 men. Given a 20% overhead for replacements based on US planning that's ~70,000 men thus 23-24 battalions. Enough for call it 2 infantry divisions, an armoured brigade and a commando unit.
I think Stalin will be screaming for an offensive against Turkey. After all the WAllies have three open fronts with Turkey one of which is supported by one of the biggest harbors in this side of the Mediterranean...
Seems logical... which will be fun given the US insistence in this timeframe for an invasion of France at the detriment of anything else...
Tell if I'm wrong but did the Allies defend Indonesia ITTL? with the British defense on Sri Lanka and the Japanese naval loses I lost any major landings on Sumatra or Java or any destruction of the Allied fleet there. If that is the case then a counter attack against Japan especially with a very well preserved British , and Dutch, force could secure almost naval dominance if they unite with the Americans or attack from 2 sides to split the Japanese navy. This Midway has the same effect on Japan but the Americans payed a heavier price which could mean that the British would have more strategic say on what is going to happen at least till the major American ships factory start spewing ships.
Indonesia fell on schedule. Now the USN is down two carriers compared to OTL, while the British are in the same situation with OTL. Of course the British situation in Home waters is much better, the Kriegsmarine is down to a single battleship while the allies also have Richelieu and soon also Jean Bart...
The Iraqi situation is getting really interesting with 4 factions in already (Arab Kingdom, Assyria, Kurdistan and Iran) and with the British overlooking. I can't see how this isn't going to get messy after the war.
The Kurds and Assyrians problem is one of geography as long as they don't manage to secure an outlet to the sea. Assuming Turkey will not be friendly to either, then they depend on either Iran or Iraq or Syria to get a lifeline...
Case Blue is here and it's bigger and more ambitious than OTL. I can't see major breakthroughs in Anatolia due to the terrain but certainly the Soviets will be in a major pinch when the Axis will be on both sides of the Caucasus. A drive towards Baku could be pushed better maybe through the South and maybe the Germans don't split their Army Group South in 2 and go only towards Stalingrad or even if they split they have different composition favoring more heavily the Stalingrad front. That could create a lot of problems. On the other hand the Northern route is easier as it is more flatlands and it has more glory for Wehrmacht so maybe they will go just OTL. Either way the Soviets will fall back hard for some months but they have the opportunity to really hurt the Southern attack with what that includes for the Turkish manpower pool.
For what little is worth, scratch the Armenian Legion from the Wermacht order of battle and likely the Georgian Legion as well...
 
Tell if I'm wrong but did the Allies defend Indonesia ITTL? with the British defense on Sri Lanka and the Japanese naval loses I lost any major landings on Sumatra or Java or any destruction of the Allied fleet there. If that is the case then a counter attack against Japan especially with a very well preserved British , and Dutch, force could secure almost naval dominance if they unite with the Americans or attack from 2 sides to split the Japanese navy. This Midway has the same effect on Japan but the Americans payed a heavier price which could mean that the British would have more strategic say on what is going to happen at least till the major American ships factory start spewing ships.

The Iraqi situation is getting really interesting with 4 factions in already (Arab Kingdom, Assyria, Kurdistan and Iran) and with the British overlooking. I can't see how this isn't going to get messy after the war.

Case Blue is here and it's bigger and more ambitious than OTL. I can't see major breakthroughs in Anatolia due to the terrain but certainly the Soviets will be in a major pinch when the Axis will be on both sides of the Caucasus. A drive towards Baku could be pushed better maybe through the South and maybe the Germans don't split their Army Group South in 2 and go only towards Stalingrad or even if they split they have different composition favoring more heavily the Stalingrad front. That could create a lot of problems. On the other hand the Northern route is easier as it is more flatlands and it has more glory for Wehrmacht so maybe they will go just OTL. Either way the Soviets will fall back hard for some months but they have the opportunity to really hurt the Southern attack with what that includes for the Turkish manpower pool.

I like the fact that this TL is so consistent. I feel like getting my dose of Alt-History just enough per week.
Well I would have to say, with the difficult logistics of turkey ittl, a southern push towards Baku from turkey is going to be incredibly costly with the otl Armenian mountains and the fact that the allies are incredibly capable of logistically striking any major offensive. Black sea maritime activity seems not strong enough to support a deeper push into Soviet Caucasus from the Turkish front. It is likely to remain static. It would not surprise me if the German high command would first make a southern push for batumi and Georgia to link up with turkey, or they will just advance upon Stalingrad as OTL.

I might just have misunderstood what you meant with southern push though, could be that you meant that the German high command ignores Stalingrad to go for a southern push for Baku, but even undersupplied soviet soldiers will be able to give stiff resistance to the Germans in the mountains, perhaps even enough for the Soviets to use Stalingrad as a base to cut off the axis forces.

Generally speaking, as vital as the Caucasus is towards the defeat of the Soviets, any cause of action is likely to be incredibly risky. Although Hitler is cocky, I'd bet he would also imagine a northern or central push to be the most logical choice.
 
Top