Pretty heavy but perhaps not as high as you'd think. Lots of military casualties of course. But OTl Greece suffered massive casualties particularly due to starvation that run in the hundreds of thousands...
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
So the difference between otl and ittl is how they died.
Dying in the battlefield is better when if it's for the defense of the country.
Not really in otl in the Italian invasion greece lost some 50k.. during the occupation greece suffered starvation, ethnic cleansing, massacre after massacre. The country was basically destroyed after the war..
About casualties one should consider a few things.
1. Even IF , and that's a big IF, the casualties remain the same as OTL , about 700k , the percentage on the population is not the same as from the 1940 census TTL Greece is about 2 mill bigger.
2. Most of the casualties OTL were non-combatants like women, children and elderly from the famine that was caused so this time around the main pool of casualties would be young men , which could lead to an after war women's liberation but maybe I'm seeing too much into it.
3.The populace didn't know the cruelty of the Germans while they know that one of the Turks so more than likely most of the Asia Minor Greeks did flee from the Turks and the Germans don't have an occupation zone in Greece. Well this just means that the Bulgarians who were brutal as well did get more land but at the same time they are more overstretched as they participate in an active front line and not only guard occupied territories.
My guess is that the casualties would be in the 400k-600k range as a lot would die either way and I'm counting the existing Turks in Asia Minor that would flee when the tide is reversed.
1. Even IF , and that's a big IF, the casualties remain the same as OTL , about 700k , the percentage on the population is not the same as from the 1940 census TTL Greece is about 2 mill bigger.
2. Most of the casualties OTL were non-combatants like women, children and elderly from the famine that was caused so this time around the main pool of casualties would be young men , which could lead to an after war women's liberation but maybe I'm seeing too much into it.
3.The populace didn't know the cruelty of the Germans while they know that one of the Turks so more than likely most of the Asia Minor Greeks did flee from the Turks and the Germans don't have an occupation zone in Greece. Well this just means that the Bulgarians who were brutal as well did get more land but at the same time they are more overstretched as they participate in an active front line and not only guard occupied territories.
My guess is that the casualties would be in the 400k-600k range as a lot would die either way and I'm counting the existing Turks in Asia Minor that would flee when the tide is reversed.
Yeah true. But I do feel there's a difference between dying without much resistance compared to struggling.
Unlike otl a lot more males would be dead too considering that most of the death toll but a lot of the females and children would be displaced into free Greece so less should die than otl in general and the casulties in Thermopylae should be less than 300k at this point, and less massacres could occur in Greece so it may be less than otl.
Part 98
St. Nazaire, France, March 21st, 1942
The destroyer Ouragan was rammed into the Normandie dock as French and British commandos attacked the port. It would prove a costly operation, out of nearly 400 men only a quarter would manage to escape, to join the French resistance with the rest ether killed or captured but the dock, the largest in continental Europe would be knocked out of operation for the duration of the war.
Thessaloniki, Greece, March 25th, 1942
Relations between the Christian and Jewish communities of the city had been mixed in the three decades since the liberation of the city in 1912, further exacerbated by politics, the Christians tended to be dominated by the Venizelists, while the Jews voted mostly anti-Venizelist. But no divide would be seen today as the students of the Aristotle University, the university, established in 1938, had been closed down by the Bulgarian occupation authorities the previous year with its professors trying to keep it clandestinely operating under the guise of giving lectures, gathered in the arch of Galerius, raised Greek flags and begun marching towards Liberty square to celebrate Greek independence day. They would soon be joined not exactly spontaneously, by members of the Aris, Herakles and Maccabi sports clubs joining them. By the time the demonstration reached Aristotle square at about half the distance the demonstration was in the tens of thousands and the demonstrators clashing with the occupation troops. The Bulgarian occupation troops were not shy to open fire in the demonstration indiscriminately. Armed members of the resistance returned the favour while others used petrol bombs and rocks. By the time the demonstrators did finally cease three days later, killed demonstrators numbered in the dozens and wounded in the hundreds, in what had been the largest demonstration of occupied Europe with over 120,000 participating.
Piraeus, March 28th, 1942
150 Centaur and Stuart tanks start unloading. In the aftermath of the fall of Tripoli, the allies were for once having a surplus of tanks available. Tripoli was limited to a port capacity of only 1500t a day after the port facilities had been repaired. British engineers were busily expanding it, while New Zealand railway troops had already repaired the Libyan railroad from Tripoli to Zuara since late February and was now pushing it westwards and over 3 km a day, it was estimated it would reach Mareth by the end of April. But still only 4 divisions, two of them armoured and two armoured brigades, fewer than 100,000 men and about 800 tanks could be kept in supply in southern Tunisia. Thus the 50th Infantry Division and the 1st armoured brigade had been transferred to the Syrian front instead while but the Greeks and the French in Syria were getting a lot more tanks much faster than initially expected. Enough for the Greeks to fully convert their II Cavalry Division to armour, an understrength one but still armoured, and the French to rebuild their armoured brigade which had suffered heavy casualties in earlier combat.
Near Ceylon, Indian Ocean, April 5th, 1942
Six Fairey Albacore had been launched from HMS Ark Royal to search for the Japanese fleet in the late afternoon. Two had actually found the Japanese a little before sunset. Zeros from the Hiriu had shot down both of them but not before they could report back. The three carriers of Force A under admiral Somerville, HMS Ark Royal, HMS Indomitable and HMS Formidable, begun launching aircraft to attack. If all went well the attack would reach the Japanese after dark had fallen when the Albacores could attack under radar guidance and the fearsome Japanese fighters could not intercept them...
Near Ceylon, Indian Ocean, April 6th, 1942
Between them the three British carriers had launched no less than 60 torpedo bombers out of the 76 they nominally carried in the night. They had scored 8 hits, hitting Akagi with 5 torpedoes and Kirishima with 3. Both ships had been sunk and then Somerville had run off to the west as soon as he had recovered his aircraft. Now it was Nagumo's turn. The early searches managed to find only HMS Hermes which had been sunk in short order. Only in the afternoon, had Force A, the British main force been detected and attacked, with the Japanese hitting and sinking Ark Royal. And then with night approaching Nagumo had ordered his carriers to retreat instead on pressing home the attack fearing a repeat of the previous night. The Japanese Indian ocean raid was over. The British had undeniably suffered the heavier casualties with 8 warships, including 2 aircraft carriers and 2 heavy cruisers, and 24 merchant ships sunk while their fleet would retreat to Diego Suarez in the aftermath. But while the Japanese had lost only a single carrier and a battleship they could afford the losses when fighting the two largest naval powers on Earth rather less well...
Bataan, April 9th, 1942
The American and Filipino defenders were finally forced to surrender. Thousands of prisoners would be massacred by the Japanese over the following weeks. General Douglas MacArthur was not among the captured as he had been spirited out of Bataan the previous month.
Arachthos river, Epirus, April 13th, 1942
Over the previous month the I and IX Greek infantry divisions and the headquarters of the Greek A Corps, under the recently promoted general Alexakis, had been shifted to Epirus, just as the Crete division was shifted back from Smyrna to Thessaly. General Papagos, the commander of the Greek Epirus Army Section, by now had 5 divisions and almost 140,000 men, to 6 divisions and about 120,000 men of the Italian 9th army. The Greeks attacked. Arachthos would be crossed the same day and the Italians pushed out of Arta, four days later.
Spercheios river, Greece, April 15th, 1942
The two Greek armoured cavalry divisions, hit the 7th Bulgarian Infantry division. The allies had insufficient forces for a large scale offensive in Thessaly, particularly since the Bulgarian army in Thessaly had been reinforced with captured French and Belgian artillery and arms over the past few months and had grown in numbers to slightly over 216,000 men but Pangalos wanted to tie down the Axis forces from reinforcing Epirus. As for the Bulgarian division in the receiving end of nearly 400 tanks...
East of Japan, April 18th, 1942
B-25 bombers begun taking off from USS Enterprise. Six hours later the bombers would attack Tokyo, the first time a foreign force attacked Japanese soil since the 19th century. Damage would be negligible and none of the aircraft would be recovered, the crews would bail out over China instead. But the psychological effects on the Japanese and the effort part by the Japanese to defend about possible future raids far exceeded the actual damage of the raid.
Vyazma, April 20th, 1942
The Soviet counter-attack, the last in the Soviet winter counteroffensive came to a halt after nearly three months of heavy fighting. The Germans had been pushed back from Moscow, even though the German Army Group Centre strongly held a salient at Vyazma from which Moscow could still be threatened. But German plans for the year aimed elsewhere...
Tunisia, April 21st, 1942
The 15th and 21st Panzer Divisions, rebuild over the previous three months to a force of 36,000 men and over 250 tanks struck west. General Juin's Army of Algeria had nearly three times as many men but lacked anti-tank guns and and had fewer than half as many tanks, mostly obsolete Renault D2s with a mere 23 Somua S35s somewhat comparable to the German tanks. General Rommel's plan was, at least on paper, simple. First destroy or severely defeat Juin's army while the British 8th army was held in the strongly fortified Mareth line, then switch east and defeat O'Connor in turn. Whether it would succeed was a different question.
Athens, April 23rd, 1942
Athanasios Souliotis was hardly new to spy work, he had been running Greek spy networks since the Macedonian struggle a had been a close friend of Ion Dragoumis since then. Thus he had made a natural choice to head DYPL the Greek Information Agency Directorate when Dragoumis had come to power. The Thessaloniki independence day demonstrations, while of great propaganda value had concerned him, due to the heavy involvement of the communist controlled People's Liberation Front. On paper the communists were working with the rest of the resistance. In practice "Ares Makedon", or Thanasis Klaras, in command of the armed wing of the PLF was very capable and a loose cannon... if one assumed that Zachariadis in Athens despite what he said officially minded. He couldn't quite attack the communist resistance. But he most certainly could support yet more the non-communist resistance and form an umbrella organization under which all resistance groups would operate, bringing up the pressure on the communists to cooperate. And thus the Greek Forces of the Interior would be born...
Mareth, April 26th, 1942
The British 8th army sprang to the attack. Normally O'Connor would had waited for more but he needed to relieve the pressure on the French in the west, the French were contesting the ground much harder than the Germans had expected but were taking very heavy casualties in the process. O'Connor had slightly fewer men, 94,000 to 99,000 but had over 800 tanks, three times as many as the defenders. Then the defensive line in Mareth was heavily fortified...
The destroyer Ouragan was rammed into the Normandie dock as French and British commandos attacked the port. It would prove a costly operation, out of nearly 400 men only a quarter would manage to escape, to join the French resistance with the rest ether killed or captured but the dock, the largest in continental Europe would be knocked out of operation for the duration of the war.
Thessaloniki, Greece, March 25th, 1942
Relations between the Christian and Jewish communities of the city had been mixed in the three decades since the liberation of the city in 1912, further exacerbated by politics, the Christians tended to be dominated by the Venizelists, while the Jews voted mostly anti-Venizelist. But no divide would be seen today as the students of the Aristotle University, the university, established in 1938, had been closed down by the Bulgarian occupation authorities the previous year with its professors trying to keep it clandestinely operating under the guise of giving lectures, gathered in the arch of Galerius, raised Greek flags and begun marching towards Liberty square to celebrate Greek independence day. They would soon be joined not exactly spontaneously, by members of the Aris, Herakles and Maccabi sports clubs joining them. By the time the demonstration reached Aristotle square at about half the distance the demonstration was in the tens of thousands and the demonstrators clashing with the occupation troops. The Bulgarian occupation troops were not shy to open fire in the demonstration indiscriminately. Armed members of the resistance returned the favour while others used petrol bombs and rocks. By the time the demonstrators did finally cease three days later, killed demonstrators numbered in the dozens and wounded in the hundreds, in what had been the largest demonstration of occupied Europe with over 120,000 participating.
Piraeus, March 28th, 1942
150 Centaur and Stuart tanks start unloading. In the aftermath of the fall of Tripoli, the allies were for once having a surplus of tanks available. Tripoli was limited to a port capacity of only 1500t a day after the port facilities had been repaired. British engineers were busily expanding it, while New Zealand railway troops had already repaired the Libyan railroad from Tripoli to Zuara since late February and was now pushing it westwards and over 3 km a day, it was estimated it would reach Mareth by the end of April. But still only 4 divisions, two of them armoured and two armoured brigades, fewer than 100,000 men and about 800 tanks could be kept in supply in southern Tunisia. Thus the 50th Infantry Division and the 1st armoured brigade had been transferred to the Syrian front instead while but the Greeks and the French in Syria were getting a lot more tanks much faster than initially expected. Enough for the Greeks to fully convert their II Cavalry Division to armour, an understrength one but still armoured, and the French to rebuild their armoured brigade which had suffered heavy casualties in earlier combat.
Near Ceylon, Indian Ocean, April 5th, 1942
Six Fairey Albacore had been launched from HMS Ark Royal to search for the Japanese fleet in the late afternoon. Two had actually found the Japanese a little before sunset. Zeros from the Hiriu had shot down both of them but not before they could report back. The three carriers of Force A under admiral Somerville, HMS Ark Royal, HMS Indomitable and HMS Formidable, begun launching aircraft to attack. If all went well the attack would reach the Japanese after dark had fallen when the Albacores could attack under radar guidance and the fearsome Japanese fighters could not intercept them...
Near Ceylon, Indian Ocean, April 6th, 1942
Between them the three British carriers had launched no less than 60 torpedo bombers out of the 76 they nominally carried in the night. They had scored 8 hits, hitting Akagi with 5 torpedoes and Kirishima with 3. Both ships had been sunk and then Somerville had run off to the west as soon as he had recovered his aircraft. Now it was Nagumo's turn. The early searches managed to find only HMS Hermes which had been sunk in short order. Only in the afternoon, had Force A, the British main force been detected and attacked, with the Japanese hitting and sinking Ark Royal. And then with night approaching Nagumo had ordered his carriers to retreat instead on pressing home the attack fearing a repeat of the previous night. The Japanese Indian ocean raid was over. The British had undeniably suffered the heavier casualties with 8 warships, including 2 aircraft carriers and 2 heavy cruisers, and 24 merchant ships sunk while their fleet would retreat to Diego Suarez in the aftermath. But while the Japanese had lost only a single carrier and a battleship they could afford the losses when fighting the two largest naval powers on Earth rather less well...
Bataan, April 9th, 1942
The American and Filipino defenders were finally forced to surrender. Thousands of prisoners would be massacred by the Japanese over the following weeks. General Douglas MacArthur was not among the captured as he had been spirited out of Bataan the previous month.
Arachthos river, Epirus, April 13th, 1942
Over the previous month the I and IX Greek infantry divisions and the headquarters of the Greek A Corps, under the recently promoted general Alexakis, had been shifted to Epirus, just as the Crete division was shifted back from Smyrna to Thessaly. General Papagos, the commander of the Greek Epirus Army Section, by now had 5 divisions and almost 140,000 men, to 6 divisions and about 120,000 men of the Italian 9th army. The Greeks attacked. Arachthos would be crossed the same day and the Italians pushed out of Arta, four days later.
Spercheios river, Greece, April 15th, 1942
The two Greek armoured cavalry divisions, hit the 7th Bulgarian Infantry division. The allies had insufficient forces for a large scale offensive in Thessaly, particularly since the Bulgarian army in Thessaly had been reinforced with captured French and Belgian artillery and arms over the past few months and had grown in numbers to slightly over 216,000 men but Pangalos wanted to tie down the Axis forces from reinforcing Epirus. As for the Bulgarian division in the receiving end of nearly 400 tanks...
East of Japan, April 18th, 1942
B-25 bombers begun taking off from USS Enterprise. Six hours later the bombers would attack Tokyo, the first time a foreign force attacked Japanese soil since the 19th century. Damage would be negligible and none of the aircraft would be recovered, the crews would bail out over China instead. But the psychological effects on the Japanese and the effort part by the Japanese to defend about possible future raids far exceeded the actual damage of the raid.
Vyazma, April 20th, 1942
The Soviet counter-attack, the last in the Soviet winter counteroffensive came to a halt after nearly three months of heavy fighting. The Germans had been pushed back from Moscow, even though the German Army Group Centre strongly held a salient at Vyazma from which Moscow could still be threatened. But German plans for the year aimed elsewhere...
Tunisia, April 21st, 1942
The 15th and 21st Panzer Divisions, rebuild over the previous three months to a force of 36,000 men and over 250 tanks struck west. General Juin's Army of Algeria had nearly three times as many men but lacked anti-tank guns and and had fewer than half as many tanks, mostly obsolete Renault D2s with a mere 23 Somua S35s somewhat comparable to the German tanks. General Rommel's plan was, at least on paper, simple. First destroy or severely defeat Juin's army while the British 8th army was held in the strongly fortified Mareth line, then switch east and defeat O'Connor in turn. Whether it would succeed was a different question.
Athens, April 23rd, 1942
Athanasios Souliotis was hardly new to spy work, he had been running Greek spy networks since the Macedonian struggle a had been a close friend of Ion Dragoumis since then. Thus he had made a natural choice to head DYPL the Greek Information Agency Directorate when Dragoumis had come to power. The Thessaloniki independence day demonstrations, while of great propaganda value had concerned him, due to the heavy involvement of the communist controlled People's Liberation Front. On paper the communists were working with the rest of the resistance. In practice "Ares Makedon", or Thanasis Klaras, in command of the armed wing of the PLF was very capable and a loose cannon... if one assumed that Zachariadis in Athens despite what he said officially minded. He couldn't quite attack the communist resistance. But he most certainly could support yet more the non-communist resistance and form an umbrella organization under which all resistance groups would operate, bringing up the pressure on the communists to cooperate. And thus the Greek Forces of the Interior would be born...
Mareth, April 26th, 1942
The British 8th army sprang to the attack. Normally O'Connor would had waited for more but he needed to relieve the pressure on the French in the west, the French were contesting the ground much harder than the Germans had expected but were taking very heavy casualties in the process. O'Connor had slightly fewer men, 94,000 to 99,000 but had over 800 tanks, three times as many as the defenders. Then the defensive line in Mareth was heavily fortified...
Given that OTL the Scheer and the Hipper managed to sink 1 armed trawler and cause sufficient damage to one of St. Vincent Sherbrook's destroyers to cause it to founder after the battle before retreating with their tails between their legs, this one seems extremely odd.
I can see the two O-class being lost, being that far from a safe port, but I'd be extremely surprised if Kenya was lost and no way would the Germans get anywhere near the convoy. They never managed to get at a convoy with surface raiders when the convoy was escorted by actual warships (the Scheer OTL did for part of a convoy, but only after being given the run-around by a pair of DEMS).
I enjoy how the Germans had a chance to cut their losses early and cheaply in North Africa and have just thrown it away. What could they possibly be hoping to accomplish? It was extremely low probability OTL that they would be able to take and hold an area from Tripoli to Port Said; the only way to "close" the front with a strategic victory; and now they will functionally need to hold from Rabat to Port Said; a distance of over 4500km; to achieve the same result.
I know French honour won't allow it but how funny would it be if the French just fell back to Algiers, 650km away, and forced the Germans to figure out how to lengthen their supply line while the Royal Navy and Marine Nationale just pounded their coastal supply lines at will. With the French in the fight the only way for the Axis to win is not to play. They could close the front; evacuate their troops to Sicily; and the allies would still need to keep a lot of forces there while the Axis could redeploy their mobile forces at least to more important fronts. Instead they are going to throw away tanks, planes, ships, and especially trucks that they can't spare to drag out a front that they have already lost.
In regards to Greece I do wonder about the timing of their offensive. I would have thought any offensive would wait at least until it became clear where the German summer offensive would be directed. There is always the risk that Hitler decides to re-route a panzer army from the Eastern Front to the Balkans as a result. I would assume overall though a limited offensive to get better defensive terrain and be able to overrun population centres that can than be evacuated away from the front is the main goal. If I would bet I would guess Ioannina would be the ultimate goal. Cities can provide a lynchpin to anchor defenses against; even getting Arta is one more urban centre that the axis now has to push through.
Also once again we see the slowly widening gap in production for the allies. Bulgaria and Turkey get cast off French Artillery with limited ability to replace it as it wears out, is destroyed, captured, etc. Meanwhile Greece gets 150 tanks because they were just sitting around with nothing to do right now so might as well while the Middle Eastern forces get a new armored brigade out of the deal as well. Just an incredible mismatch in ability that underscores not only how limited the Axis really are but also how incredible it is that the Axis had the success they had OTL and ITTL.
I know French honour won't allow it but how funny would it be if the French just fell back to Algiers, 650km away, and forced the Germans to figure out how to lengthen their supply line while the Royal Navy and Marine Nationale just pounded their coastal supply lines at will. With the French in the fight the only way for the Axis to win is not to play. They could close the front; evacuate their troops to Sicily; and the allies would still need to keep a lot of forces there while the Axis could redeploy their mobile forces at least to more important fronts. Instead they are going to throw away tanks, planes, ships, and especially trucks that they can't spare to drag out a front that they have already lost.
In regards to Greece I do wonder about the timing of their offensive. I would have thought any offensive would wait at least until it became clear where the German summer offensive would be directed. There is always the risk that Hitler decides to re-route a panzer army from the Eastern Front to the Balkans as a result. I would assume overall though a limited offensive to get better defensive terrain and be able to overrun population centres that can than be evacuated away from the front is the main goal. If I would bet I would guess Ioannina would be the ultimate goal. Cities can provide a lynchpin to anchor defenses against; even getting Arta is one more urban centre that the axis now has to push through.
Also once again we see the slowly widening gap in production for the allies. Bulgaria and Turkey get cast off French Artillery with limited ability to replace it as it wears out, is destroyed, captured, etc. Meanwhile Greece gets 150 tanks because they were just sitting around with nothing to do right now so might as well while the Middle Eastern forces get a new armored brigade out of the deal as well. Just an incredible mismatch in ability that underscores not only how limited the Axis really are but also how incredible it is that the Axis had the success they had OTL and ITTL.
While Epirus Front seems to be successful, a battle of attrition in Thessaly may only serve to degrade both sides combat capabilities as I can't see Bulgaria conceding. Still, necessary to prevent Axis reinforcements to Epirus. The German adventure in Africa was a stupid mistake in OTL and even more so here as @JSC explains. Now we're starting to see the butterflies hit the Pacific, with Akagi and Kirishima out of action before the Battle of Midway. Normally, this might lead to one reconsidering another naval offensive but I'm sure the IJN won't let a little thing like facts and reality get in the way of their grand plans.
Tbf it's a diversion and the Greeks could replace their losses much better than the Bulgars. The counterattacks against the Italians are good enough.
I mean lend lease is a thing and the sea lanes are still WAllies so it should be fine? They should be better supplied than the axis long term.
Wow, so many things happening ...
Sending an infantry division and an armoured brigade in Syria are great news for the French. At this point, with 4 different fronts, the Turks have lost the initiative. I would guess that they deem more important the Smyrna and Armenian Highlands Fronts and that would affect the allocation of forces. It seems to me that is plausible that the Allies have a great opportunity to attack in Syria, destroy 1 or 2 turkish corps and secure Cilicia. When the frontline reaches the Taurus Mountains, then it is an excellent defensive barrier for the Turks. However, losing Cilicia would mean that they ability to support the Iraqi Front is limited.
Afterwards, the Allies would have three options: bang their heads against Taurus, send additional divisions in Smyrna or land in Antalya. Considering that the port of Smyrna will impose limitations on how many troops and civilians it can support, my guess would be a combination of the last two options.
Pangalos' attack at the Epirus Front is very promising. Italian resources will be stretched thin between Greece and Tunisia. I think the mountainous terrain doesn't allow any spectacular territorial gains. However, a number of italian formations could be destroyed or at the very least mauled, greatly reducing the offensive capability of the Italian Army in Greece. Likewise, the attack at Thermopylae won't be enough to completely break the Bulgarian Army, but they can secure the passes to Thessaly and perhaps the town of Domokos.
So, if the next major attack - after the Germas have embarked upon Case Blue- takes place in Thessaly, the Italians in Epirus will have limited ability to intervene ...
Lastly, that was a very realistic battle in the Indian Ocean. If we take into account that there is no need for fighter deliveries to Malta via carriers, then the Americans in the coming weeks have an advantage of two carriers compared to OTL: Scratch one flattop (Akagi) and add another one (Wasp).
Sending an infantry division and an armoured brigade in Syria are great news for the French. At this point, with 4 different fronts, the Turks have lost the initiative. I would guess that they deem more important the Smyrna and Armenian Highlands Fronts and that would affect the allocation of forces. It seems to me that is plausible that the Allies have a great opportunity to attack in Syria, destroy 1 or 2 turkish corps and secure Cilicia. When the frontline reaches the Taurus Mountains, then it is an excellent defensive barrier for the Turks. However, losing Cilicia would mean that they ability to support the Iraqi Front is limited.
Afterwards, the Allies would have three options: bang their heads against Taurus, send additional divisions in Smyrna or land in Antalya. Considering that the port of Smyrna will impose limitations on how many troops and civilians it can support, my guess would be a combination of the last two options.
Pangalos' attack at the Epirus Front is very promising. Italian resources will be stretched thin between Greece and Tunisia. I think the mountainous terrain doesn't allow any spectacular territorial gains. However, a number of italian formations could be destroyed or at the very least mauled, greatly reducing the offensive capability of the Italian Army in Greece. Likewise, the attack at Thermopylae won't be enough to completely break the Bulgarian Army, but they can secure the passes to Thessaly and perhaps the town of Domokos.
So, if the next major attack - after the Germas have embarked upon Case Blue- takes place in Thessaly, the Italians in Epirus will have limited ability to intervene ...
Lastly, that was a very realistic battle in the Indian Ocean. If we take into account that there is no need for fighter deliveries to Malta via carriers, then the Americans in the coming weeks have an advantage of two carriers compared to OTL: Scratch one flattop (Akagi) and add another one (Wasp).
Love that you kept the raid on St Nazaire in there, too much of a cool moment to pass up on
Graf Spee at River Plate OTOH made a mess out of Exeter, it took 13 months to repair her, while moderately damaging Ajax and Achilles. So it's not unreasonable to assume it performs better in action than either Hipper or Scheer and one notes her armour should be pretty effective against 6in guns, certainly more effective than against 8in. Post that the logical British reaction as seen in PQ 17 in OTL is to order the convoy to disperse, while Kenya and escorts try to gain the merchantmen time. Which in the case of PQ 17 led to 24 out of 35 ships being lost.
Liberating Epirus looks like a reasonable political goal...
All quite accurate. Then Hitler thought it a good idea to try to hold Tunisia in the face of much worse military odds in winter 1942-43 and with Stalingrad going on at the same time. So I don't think he's going to get a sudden attack of sanity here. Why would he?
I believe this comes under the "thank god the Germans were so good at strategy". Or engineering for that matter.
In a perfect world the Greeks should wait for Fall Blau to begin before any major offensive. But there are political considerations both within and outside Greece as well. Since the previous spring what have the Greeks done in mainland Greece? Fended off some a couple half hearted Italian/Bulgarian attacks and that about it. If that's the case then perhaps they should be taking a low priority for new material? For that matter is keeping the 2nd New Zealand division, 2 French divisions, the Free Poles and the Free Yugoslavs in theatre logical? The British keep claiming an invasion of France in 1942 is impossible while keeping tied down a whole army in Greece! Then aside some overenthusiastic Yank that will be likely claiming something like this there is the morale of the divisions from the occupied territories to consider as well they were kept into one piece in March 1941 thanks to what can be euphemistically called the iron hand of Pangalos (as in "come see how we publicly shoot this bastard who dared desert"). After a year both they and the public will be chaffing in the bit to see some action to liberate the occupied areas...
Attacking the rest of the world on your own can have such adverse effects. One would had thought the Germans would had learned after the first time...
The Bulgarians had proven in WW1 very tenacious, so no it's unlikely they concede. On the other hand a battle in which the allies pay in material and the Bulgarians (or the Turks for that matter pay in blood) is not a very good exchange for the side paying in blood...
The RN had a third carrier, with a well worked up crew and nearly as many aircraft as the other two ships combined. It should have SOME effect...
Greek industry outproduces Bulgaria even if one forgets outside aid...
They should. The main limitation is not production but rather available shipping.
By this point speaking of a separate Iraqi front is probably... obsolete. After all Slip has knocked the Turks and Germans out of Iraq and Baghdad railroad, their closest railhead is Diyarbakir
What is the strategic goal of the allied army here?
The Bulgarians have over 200,000 men in Thessaly, with a similar number of Italians. They are not going to break. That said a war of attrition where allied firepower will keep growing month by month...
Wasp is already in the Pacific...
Somewhat altered, the French are heavily involved TTL...