Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Sport25ing]

its now to late to implement this, but still:

 

[Paranormal Triangle]

First for all, I want to say how much I have been enjoying this timeline, and I would like to thank Lascaris for taking the time to create and update it.

Now, thought, I do find the situation that Greece found itself in, as of 1945 intriguing, and I have the following questions:

1) What is the population, economic conditions and social life in Athens compared to OTL? I know it has been a while, but I never saw an update specifically touching on how Athens is developing without all the Anatolian refugees. However, I must come to the conclusion that it is ,at least, less populated. Although I do think that the population loss is somewhat offset by the avoidance of the Axis occupation. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Athens develops during the Cold War, as many of the refugee "Shantytowns" that later grew to become whole districts of Athens will be missing, that coupled with a more economically capable Greece and no Axis looting & destruction, Athens will surely be radically different than how it is OTL.

2) How is the demography of Asiatic Greece looking? I know lot of the rural population has escaped behind the Smyrna walls. But what happened to the ones left behind? I expect they were would be treated in a similar way Serbs were treated in Kosovo, I.e. being declared colonizers and either executed outright or sent to "work camps". However, I do wonder how many Greeks remains West of the Smyrna walls. Will Greece be able to replace the ones lost? Will the the rural refugees even want to return to their villages, considering that many would still fear that war could eventually return, and thus it's smarter to just stay in the safe zone? This questions specifically will probably be troubling the Greek government for the foreseeable future, no country wants to have underpopulated regions, but underpopulated border-regions are on another scale of non ideal situations, especially when you want to expand said regions to include "unwanted" inhabitants.

3) Does Smyrna, at the moment, surpass Thessaloniki, economicaly or population wise? Thessaloniki, is the only major city of Greece to have experienced the Axis occupation, and a eventful one at that, so will the city be forced to accept the mere third place behind Athens and Smyrna or will they live up to their Co-Capital status? It may just be me, but I don't see Thessaloniki getting a metro system in this TL either. Smyrna on the other hand...

4) We already know that Greece will most likely try to maximise their gains against Bulgaria and Turkey, however, are there plans for gains against Albania, or has Greece taken everything in wants from Albania already? Also, is Sasona/Sazan island (which was conceded to Italy by Greece due to Italian demands after the Second Balkan War) claimed by Greece or/and Albania? (It was given to Albania OTL)

5) What is the status of the Monastir deal between Yugoslavia and Greece, is it public knowledge or a military secret? Greece, technically, didn't fulfill it as they didn't immediately join Yugoslavia in their war against Italy. But, as of 1945 a lot of Greek blood has been spilled to liberate Yugoslavia. It is a difficult situation all around, as Yugoslavia doesn't have a stable enough political climate to give away Slavic majority regions to a foreign power after such a costly, and victorious, war. However, Greeks won't forget this "Yugoslav betrayal" if they choose to not concede the region.

6) Do the Greeks even expect the British to let them annex Cyprus at this point or is it seen as a future issue by both sides? Do the Greeks see it as inevitable that Cyprus will came under Athenian administration, and for that reason there is no need to spend political capital for it during the peace treaty?

7) Constantinople. Obviously the million drachma question at the moment as far as Greece is concerned. Did the Turks become the majority during the war, or have they just remained the plurality? Furthermore, I don't expect many Turks to have fled the city, as the presence of multiple allied armies nearby will probably be enough to convince them that they won't be immediately deported by the Greeks. Something that makes it all the more difficult for Greece to lock in Constantinople for good.

I again want to thank the creator of this expertly written timeline for the time and effort they have put into making it.

 

[Lascaris]

And thus only Japan is left to handle.

"And then there was none"

Will the Greeks send forces to fight against the Japanese - like for exemple, an destroyer division attached to the BPF?

That would be... why spoilers!

And so, just as the ink is drying on the Germans terms of surrender, the colonial unrest has already started. Oh dear

Arguably that's hardly surprising...

To the Syrians and the Alewites what they want opposes each other. With France allowing these states to grow a lot longer than otl I would expect we'd see a bunch of wars in the Mid East soon enough, with the Syrians and Alewites calling each other Fascist.

And one notes its hardly just Alewites and Syrian Arabs...

So the interesting part begins.
1 Greek gains from Turkey.
2 would love to see a realocation of the assyrians to Turkey attached to Greece under a population swap. Reduce further devastation to them.
3 Armenia.
4 constanaople?

Let me see... no comments. Besides the fact Assyrians proclaimed independence back in 1941 and it remains in limbo since then. But now the war in Europe is over and the San Fransisco conference already underway. Assyrian-Arab-Kurdish relations cannot remain in limbo they have to come to a decision...

And so the war in Europe ends. For all the speculation on Austria, it landed in a relatively similar place then OTL as to who conquered what so its likely to be in the same place in the Washington-Moscow Axis when all is said and done as well. As many have speculated the WAllies have also wound up liberating the overwhelming majority of Yugoslavia, giving the Chetniks a fighting chance against Tito.

Quite a bit more of Austria was directly controlled by the Western Allies at the time the war ended but otherwise yes.

So the faces and dates are a little different but the war ends for Germany and Austria much as it did OTL from what I see. Killing or imprisoning the hardline Croatian nationalists is likely to help Yugoslavia going forward in whatever shape it takes. I expect Denmark will end up exactly the same as OTL, except possibly with Swedish help this time. I wonder if Scandinavism will see a resurgence in TTL, in Sweden at least.

There was quite a lot of talk immediately postwar about a Scandinavian Defence League. How it would work out...

Czechia is still the big question mark. I don’t think the Wallies will change much there but I do hope that as many members of the Russian liberation army as possible can disappear into the French and Greek army rolls. They’re in Bavaria so they’re well placed for it at least

If the legion would take ex SS soldiers no questions asked it likely would take in Russians too. The Greeks now likely have some interest in putting a noose around this guy.

I’m assuming the actions in Syria are the beginning of TTL’s version of the Levant Crisis? Although this time noticeably without any Lebanese, Kurd or Alawite actions? I imagine that the British will still get involved in pursuit of their dreams of a Mega Hashemite client Kingdom in the Middle East, but still no actual conflict occurs between the Europeans. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lebanon and the Alawite state both have French military bases after the crisis though.

The Middle East has a LOT of chickens coming to roost at the moment. The French have been playing everyone within Greater Syria to an even greater extend than OTL for the past 25 years and the British have been giving promises, often enough contradictory with each other, to everyone under the sun since the entry of Turkey in the war in 1941. Come down to it it's not just the Middle East. What about Churchill's promises to Mike Collins for a united Ireland for example?

I’m curious about an event you didn’t mention though. Do the Setif and Guelma massacres still occur ITTL? Guelma seems easy enough to avoid by just butterflying away the officer who ordered the peaceful protesters attacked. Setif is also seeinungly easy enough to avoid by having the protesters give up their banners peacefully or by having a more tolerant officer in charge who was less in favor of violence. I only ask because the Massacres are widely seen as a turning point in Franco-Algerian relations. A peaceful decoupling is much more likely without them. Possibles even one where the French keep Oran and possible Bône. A France that avoids the Algerian War of independence is a very different nation than one who suffers through it. To say nothing of the befits for Algeria avoiding the destruction of the conflict.

Lets say France is lucky and in 1954 it is actually run by Charles De Gaulle. I have no doubt De Gaulle would be handling many things better like frex controlling the Pied Noirs much better. Would he be willing to give up Algeria without firing a shot? Color me unconvinced.

Also, with the Syrians seeming to be close to war once again, with the Syrians and Lebanese being the first to fight against each other, I wonder would we see Lebanon being a lot less pro-arab and be anti muslim. If the Alewites fight the Syrians too things would get very interesting very quickly.

The Lebanese TTL actually have what is a battle hardened army, one of the regiments of the French 10 Division Infanterie Colonially was Lebanese Chasseurs. How much that actually does matter... dunno. But in OTL a generation down the line the Christian militias were crap quality wise. Here there is a core of men who'd actually seen the elephant.

I am also highly skeptical that the Algerian nationalists would have been cool with a partition. Like, please don't misunderstand me here: their desire for independence and decolonization was 100% natural and justified but IMO it is still important to not whitewash them: the moto of the FLN in their message to the Pieds Noirs after the independence referendum was ''la valise ou le cercueil'', the suitcase or the coffin. They definitely do not strike me as people who, had it there just not been a bit less bad blood, been willing to accept regional referendums which France would have mostly won on Pieds Noires votes...

They would not be at all happy with partition and likely actively fight against it. Partition being a bad idea though is a different thing from partition not happening. Which likely means you've just planted the equivalent of a second Israel in western Algeria with independent Algeria trying to capture French Algeria, likely with Soviet support... but that is a different matter is it not?

The War is over, the Muddle East is already on fire, and I think most foreign SS formations were likely able to surrender to the WAllies.

I really hope this TL goes into the Cold War cause it’s gonna be fascinating.

Also when did the Poles get to Berlin?

April 1945? More seriously the photograph is from OTL. Berling's army.

The mindset and conditions were there for the Algerian massacres to happen OTL; if those two specific events were butterflied, I’d bet money on there being alternative massacres later on. I don’t believe in the chances of a peaceful decoupling no matter what.

That's unfortunately likely...

First for all, I want to say how much I have been enjoying this timeline, and I would like to thank Lascaris for taking the time to create and update it.

Thanks for the good words.

Now, thought, I do find the situation that Greece found itself in, as of 1945 intriguing, and I have the following questions:

1) What is the population, economic conditions and social life in Athens compared to OTL? I know it has been a while, but I never saw an update specifically touching on how Athens is developing without all the Anatolian refugees. However, I must come to the conclusion that it is ,at least, less populated. Although I do think that the population loss is somewhat offset by the avoidance of the Axis occupation. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Athens develops during the Cold War, as many of the refugee "Shantytowns" that later grew to become whole districts of Athens will be missing, that coupled with a more economically capable Greece and no Axis looting & destruction, Athens will surely be radically different than how it is OTL.

In 1940 TTL its population was about ~700,000 significantly less than the 1,124,000 of OTL. I am inclined to argue this has been a good thing. Long term Athens may or may not reach its OTL population, TTL Greece is more populous but by the same token you also have Smyrna. And no matter what happens to Constantinople unless things go drastically bad from the Greek point of view it also remains a big Greek urban center. TTL so far I had the Greek population of Constantinople growing at rates similar to Cyprus between natural growth and people from Greece moving there. If anything the rate of migration into the cities will be growing post war...

2) How is the demography of Asiatic Greece looking? I know lot of the rural population has escaped behind the Smyrna walls. But what happened to the ones left behind? I expect they were would be treated in a similar way Serbs were treated in Kosovo, I.e. being declared colonizers and either executed outright or sent to "work camps". However, I do wonder how many Greeks remains West of the Smyrna walls. Will Greece be able to replace the ones lost? Will the the rural refugees even want to return to their villages, considering that many would still fear that war could eventually return, and thus it's smarter to just stay in the safe zone? This questions specifically will probably be troubling the Greek government for the foreseeable future, no country wants to have underpopulated regions, but underpopulated border-regions are on another scale of non ideal situations, especially when you want to expand said regions to include "unwanted" inhabitants.

Exact numbers will have to wait. Overall Greek civilian deaths during the war have been about 464,000 with close to 165,000 combat deaths. Greek and Armenian civilian deaths in Constantinople have been a further 118,000.

3) Does Smyrna, at the moment, surpass Thessaloniki, economicaly or population wise? Thessaloniki, is the only major city of Greece to have experienced the Axis occupation, and a eventful one at that, so will the city be forced to accept the mere third place behind Athens and Smyrna or will they live up to their Co-Capital status? It may just be me, but I don't see Thessaloniki getting a metro system in this TL either. Smyrna on the other hand...

Back in 1940 Smyrna had 567,000 people and Thessaloniki 200,000. So Smyrna is massively larger at the moment. If there is to be a +co-capital" that is arguably Smyrna TTL not Thessaloniki. Metro system... no comment for now.

4) We already know that Greece will most likely try to maximise their gains against Bulgaria and Turkey, however, are there plans for gains against Albania, or has Greece taken everything in wants from Albania already? Also, is Sasona/Sazan island (which was conceded to Italy by Greece due to Italian demands after the Second Balkan War) claimed by Greece or/and Albania? (It was given to Albania OTL)

Greece got back in 1921 what it wanted perhaps even a bit more. Sazan is a possible exception and certain point of contention.

5) What is the status of the Monastir deal between Yugoslavia and Greece, is it public knowledge or a military secret? Greece, technically, didn't fulfill it as they didn't immediately join Yugoslavia in their war against Italy. But, as of 1945 a lot of Greek blood has been spilled to liberate Yugoslavia. It is a difficult situation all around, as Yugoslavia doesn't have a stable enough political climate to give away Slavic majority regions to a foreign power after such a costly, and victorious, war. However, Greeks won't forget this "Yugoslav betrayal" if they choose to not concede the region.

Technically Greece did get immediately in. The question how minimal Greek Monastir is TTL. The things might have been looking a good thing back in 1940... less so in 1945. At a guess it is the absolutely minimal land to have the town, its Vlach population and any Slavophones supporting Greece or deciding their parents did before 1912 and were really Greek all along.

6) Do the Greeks even expect the British to let them annex Cyprus at this point or is it seen as a future issue by both sides? Do the Greeks see it as inevitable that Cyprus will came under Athenian administration, and for that reason there is no need to spend political capital for it during the peace treaty?

The Greek public decidedly expects so. Hell even a lot of people withing the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs are arguing so at the moment. Realistically at a minimum Cyprus should be expecting changes towards self-government, TTL the legislative council is still around sice there was no 1931 revolt with 12 Greek, 3 Turkish and 9 British members. Reducing the British appointees or increasing the number of the elected members are not unreasonable things to expect.

 

[Quinkana]

And one notes its hardly just Alewites and Syrian Arabs...

The Lebanese TTL actually have what is a battle hardened army, one of the regiments of the French 10 Division Infanterie Colonially was Lebanese Chasseurs. How much that actually does matter... dunno. But in OTL a generation down the line the Christian militias were crap quality wise. Here there is a core of men who'd actually seen the elephant.

As you've said before the French's meddling in Syria and the Alawite and Lebanon states being something that has existed for 20ish years at this point means that the Alawites and Lebanon probably have the nationalistic identity and a lot more pre-existing state structures that would allow them to resist and fight the Syrians. If the Syrians go for a fight in the region it could end really ugly for the Syrians. With Lebanese armies being present, I defo see Lebanon itself being very much a changed entity in its early nation building, especially if the Syrians enact a few massacres that increase national identity for the Lebanese.

This would already change a lot in the Mid East. With Israel being inevitable at this point, with Lebanon and the Alawite states being anti-arab, and Greece probably helping them, Israel probably would have a lot more leeway than otl bc they have a lot more allies, some which are a lot more accepted than others (I see France and Britain being more willing to work with Israel since Lebanon and the Alawite state) means that Israel could have their own alliance structure outside of the US.

This probably means that Israel probably won't try to ally with the Arab states for a while too, for good or for ill.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Technically Greece did get immediately in. The question how minimal Greek Monastir is TTL. The things might have been looking a good thing back in 1940... less so in 1945. At a guess it is the absolutely minimal land to have the town, its Vlach population and any Slavophones supporting Greece or deciding their parents did before 1912 and were really Greek all along.

That’s actually a very good point. The Yugoslavs are likely to come down hard on the Macedonians for being pro Bulgarian during the war. Not as bad as the Albanians or Croatians will be treated but they have to know there’s a target on their back. I could definitely see a lot of Slavophones deciding that they were “Greek Macedonians” the whole time to escape the coming persecution if there’s some vote that gets held.

 

[Quinkana]

That’s actually a very good point. The Yugoslavs are likely to come down hard on the Macedonians for being pro Bulgarian during the war. Not as bad as the Albanians or Croatians will be treated but they have to know there’s a target on their back. I could definitely see a lot of Slavophones deciding that they were “Greek Macedonians” the whole time to escape the coming persecution if there’s some vote that gets held.

There'd probably be movements of the Macedonians to move to Greece in general, but with this tl I could see Macedonia going back to Bulgaria in the future if things favour the Bulgarians. If the Bulgarians are under the American camp that is. If they're under the Soviet camp I don't see them wanting to unite with the Bulgarians even though they dislike the Yugoslavs intensely.