Of Butterflies and Bombs

This TL idea came out of me trying to find a way to actually have life change do to a butterfly. My first step was to find a prominent lepidopterist/possibly significant historical figure. Walter Rothschild seemed like a good candidate. Although this part is pretty positive, if I do end up doing an actual TL, it will not be of a utopian nature.

As always, any feedback would be appreciated. Also, I apologize in advance for the extensive amount of footnotes but with such a potential touchy combination of topics (WWI, Zionism, British politics and empire) I felt that as much initial justification/explanation as possible.

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Chapter I:

“The roots of the modern state of Palestine can trace its roots to one histories more peculiar chance occurrences. In June of 1896, Lionel Walter Rothschild, future Baron Rothschild, was tending to his tamed Plains Zebras. Rothschild, an enthusiastic lepidopterist, was suddenly distracted by what he thought was a Apollo butterfly (Rothschild would later use the symbolism of Apollo, patron god of colonists, to great effect), a vagrant from continental Europe, out of the corner of his eye. Just as he turned to get a more proper look at the specimen, one of his zebras, which one is still unknown, reared up, knocked over and nearly trampled Rothschild, who was lucky to escape death.[1] When he regained consciousness, he was a changed man. Rothschild would later claim that the accident was a religious awakening for him. Rothschild, a member of arguably the most prominent Jewish family in the United Kingdom, and perhaps on the continent as well, gave his life to the Zionist cause, ignoring his previous zoologist pursuits and instead began devoting all his family's political and financial powers towards the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.[2] Within thirty years, he was able to convince the British populace that Zionism was more than a Jewish cause and was, in fact, a British cause.

“Rothschild, along with his close friend Chaim Weizmann, attended the First Zionist Conference of the Zionist Organization in 1897.[3] There, they met the original dreamer of Zionism, Theodor Herzl. Herzl was instrumental in the initial organization of the Zionist movement, with a great deal of his travel to promote the Zionist cause being funded by the Rothschilds. With Herzl's death in 1905, Rothschild took his place as President of Zionist Organization. Rothschild would serve as President until the end of the Great European War in 1919, being replaced by his friend Weizmann.[4] Rothschild abdicated his position due to his appointment as Minister of the Authority of Palestine, as outlined by the International Council.[5] To counter the appointment of the Zionist, detail-mined Rothschild, Prime Minister MacDonald also appointed the recently regionally famous Thomas Lawrence as Vice Minister. The two proved to be an effective team. Rothschild was the face of British Zionism while Lawrence was the poster boy of positive Anglo-Arab relationships. The detail-minded, policy-focused Rothschild allowed Lawrence to act as the public relations agent of the Authority.[6]

“Despite his new political post, Rothschild was still an active Zionist, although he acted primarily through his extended family members and charitable donations to Jewish organizations. Also, during Rothschild term as Minister there was a massive influx of Jewish immigrants into Palestine on both sides of the Jordan, with Rothschild appointment making Palestine at least appear more friendly to Jewish peoples. This caused great social strife, particularly in the years between 1923-1926 due to the extensive organized pogroms and deportation of Jews by the Russian Empire in futile an attempt to gain support from, and to distract, an increasingly irate populace.[7] During this time, Rothschild's closest ally in the region was Faisal I of Syria, who had been elected/appointed Duke of the Authority of Syria.[8] During the worst of the revolts, generally known as the Christmas Day Riots (although beginning a full week before Christmas proper), petitioned Horace Smith-Dorrien, Minister of Egypt and Sudan, for additional troops but his plea was largely ignored. Instead, Faisal came to Rothschild's aide. Smith-Dorrien would later be dismissed from his post for ignoring Rothschild. Faisal's assistance would mark the beginning of the long friendship between Palestine and Syria.

“It was during these shakier years of Rothschild's rule that he came to realize that the Zionist movement, and eventually an independent state of Palestine, must be of an secular nature. A nation that catered to one religion above others would inevitably cause greater strife. This could be seen as another watershed moment both in Rothschild's life and in the history of the Zionist movement. Originally, Zionism had been dominated by a strong religious character, in part due to Rothschild and his family. The riots that occurred during those three years had been motivated by sectarian thoughts rather than economic or colonialist concerns, a direct reaction to the religiosity of Zionism. In fact, Jewish immigrants had been integrating somewhat into the greater weave of Palestinian society. However, in 1927, Rothschild started enacting policies with the intent to integrate the still fairly separated populations of Muslims and Jews in Palestine. One such example, which came naturally to Rothschild due to his financial background, was offering economic and housing initiatives for those who were willing to work with members of other religions. This way, the new business and money being brought into Palestine by Jewish immigrants was shared amongst the local Muslim populations as well, providing an increase in the quality of life for both peoples. By the time the British authority over Palestine ended in 1939, the population of the Republic of Palestine had roughly even populations of Jews and Muslims.[9]”


Of Zebras and Zionists: Baron Rothschild's Palestinian by Farid Najjar (1995)


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Footnotes


1. Zebras are not domesticated animals and have been noted for their unpredictable temperament and easy to startle. The Apollo butterfly is not native to the British Isles but vagrants have been spotted before. Also, ITTL, Rothschild is never sure whether or not he actually saw an Apollo so it could have been something completely different. Also this is the POD. I am not sure any specific time he was tending to the zebras when they became unruly but its historically possible.
2. The entire Rothschild family were prominent Zionists in OTL but primarily as philanthropists and investors. Walter's near death experience ITTL would lead him to loose some of his shy demeanor and take a political role.
3. Weizmann and Rothschild were friends in OTL and Weizmann was arguably the most important British individual in the Zionist movement, and he is still important ITTL. Weizmann tried to attend the First Conference in OTL, Rothschild did not, but they made it together ITTL.
4. Weizmann did serve as President of ZO in OTL. The Great European War is TTL's version of OTL's WWI. For my own purposes it is a 'softer war', ending more quickly and being less destructive. If pushed I could come up with a reason why the war was less painful for all of Europe. The Ottoman Empire still collapses but Russia and perhaps Austria are spared for now.
5. TTL's League of Nations. I imagine an international group not being contingent on the election of Wilson. Also, the League of Nations sounds like something from a comic book. The Authorities (OTL's Mandates) have different boundaries. If this TL takes off I will provide a map.
6. I will admit that TE Lawrence (ITTL just Thomas Lawrence) getting such a high post is a bit of a stretch but with Faisal I playing a larger role ITTL in Greater Syria I think it is not implausible for Lawrence to be put in a post close to his friend and ally.
7. Due to a lesser war, the House of Romanov is not deposed.
8. ITTL, Syria is not subdivided and due to objections to foreign rule in the region (British territories see less reaction to this due to their great assistance in overthrowing the Ottomans) Faisal I is kept as “Regent” of the area as IC provided assistance to the government during its transition to independence. Once again, its boundaries are different from OTL.
9. I am unsure of OTL's population levels of Palestine and Transjordan during this time but I thought an even split would be nice story wise. Also, I am not ignorant of the fact that there were Christians and members of smaller religions in the region; if this TL continues, they will be addressed.
 
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Chapter II

So I have this idea of following a causal chain rather than follow the same people or country or war. Following the butterfly's flight path, if you will. So the chapters will have specific focus but each chapter will have a slightly different one, but being caused by the prior one.


Chapter II:


“[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]No[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]vember 30th, 1899 marked the beginning of a new model in Anglo-German relationships, and subsequently a new model of European and world politics. Although Baron Hermann von Eckardstein, First Secretary of the German Embassy, had first contacted Joseph Chamberlain in the previous year, there had bee[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]n little progress and certainly nothing official. However, in November of 1899, the Chamberlain was given another chance. Following a friendly and promising visit from Kaiser Wilhelm II and[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Bernhard von Bülow[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif], Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Chamberlain openly praised Germany and spoke of a possible future together, speaking of “a new friendship between the Teutonic race and the two great trans-Atlantic branches of the Anglo-Saxon race which would become a potent influence on the future of the world.” This newly budding friendship would be tested very soon. [/FONT]


“[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]In attempt to stop matériel from reaching the Boers in the Free State and Transvaal, the Royal Navy effectively began intercepting and inspecting foreign ships, including the German vessels the [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Herzog[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif] and [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Bundesrath[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]. The searches came out empty and caused considerable outcry from the German people and [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Reichstag[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]. Anglo-German relations were nearly irreversibly damaged as Admiral Tirpitz attempted to pass th Second Naval Law. However, these flames were suppressed by von Bülow and [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Friedrich von Holstein, who were able to convince[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif] Wilhelm that such an expansion of the [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Kaiserliche Marine[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif] would be seen as too aggressive against the Royal Navy, an ally Wilhelm very much wanted. The Second Naval Law did pass but it was weakened from Tirpitz's original hopes, only increasing the number of battleships by seven and instead focusing on a cruisers to support colonial territories. The reasoning for this was that the expected friendship would take care of most naval concerns while the [/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Reichsheer[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif] would take care of military concerns on land.[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]There was no official aligning of the British and German peoples until Arthur Balfour's term as Prime Minister. When Lord Salisbury resigned in late June of 1902, the Second Boer War had just ended and Edward VII's coronation would soon follow. Balfour replaced Lord Lansdowne as Secretary of State of Foreign Affairs with Joseph Chamberlain, mostly under appeal from Walter Rothschild, who was beginning to become a closer ally of both men. What was more important, however, was his connection with Edward VII. Rothschild's family had kept close connections with the soon-to-be King, offering a fair amount of financial advice and Walter himself had been seen with the Prince, who was criticized for openly associating with Jews.[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]On February 7, 1903, the Anglo-German Alliance was signed.”[/FONT]


Schoolyard Politics by Anne Simon, Tufts University (1988)




By the end of 1903, a complicated web of alliances had been established across the European continent and across the world. The strongest bond was between Germany and the dying Austrian-Hungarian Empire, being the only one which included assistance in an offensive war. Attached on to this alliance was the UK who had independent defensive alliances with Germany and Japan However, once UK and Germany struck an accord, it did not take long for Germany to realize that an alliance with the Japanese would be a great asset in case of war with the Russians. The Italians were also a member of what was being dubbed the 'Great Alliance' but its historical difficulties with Austria-Hungary and combined with it unwilling to support Germany in case of a offensive war made it a shaky partner. Italy found itself to be very difficult spot.


France and Russia were naturally allies, both had to deal with militant Germany. Stuck in the middle was the Ottomans, whom had no true partners in case of war. The Ottoman Empire was surrounded by colonial expansion on its frontiers and the double threat of the Russians in the Balkans and the Caucasian Mountains and also Austria-Hungary. Europe was a tinder box, and it nearly went up in flames over a city on the other side of the world.


The cause was simple – two groups of people wanted the same piece of land. Vladivostok wasn't enough for the Czar, only being open during the summer. Port Arthur on the other hand was a true warm water port. The only problem for the Russians were the Japanese. Of course, no one thought that at the time. Even the British and Germans thought that their alliy would fail and vehemently pointed out that the Japanese started the war and refused to offer any true assistance. That all changed when the Japanese assaulted Port Arthur January 6th, Orthodox Christmas Eve.


The Europeans soon learned that the Japanese weren't going to be swiped away by the Russian bear. Soon enough the Japanese had complete domination of the seas, with the Russians being blockaded in harbor with reinforcements thousands of miles away. Hesitantly, Admiral Zinovy Rozhestvensky was called upon to sail the the Baltic Fleet, renamed the Second Pacific Fleet, down the Atlantic, across the Indian and up the Pacific to save his besieged countrymen. It was to be the greatest trip a coal-powered navy would ever attempt, and proved to be a fatal one.


The Russians weren't even out of Europe before trouble started. October 11th, in the English Channel, tensions were high, captains were drunk and the crew was poorly trained. A constant worry was the British Navy, and whether or not they would join in the hostilities. And so, on a calm August night, the Russian fleet damaged two British and sank one French fishing boats. Hundreds of rounds were fired almost haphazardly in the commotion. In fact, the Russians themselves sustained 24 causalities due to friendly fire. The total time of the 'Battle of the Channel' was less than thirty minutes, but that half hour of chaos would destroy any hopes the Russians had to win the war. 16 officers and 18 enlisted men disembarked in Spain to face justice in France and Britain for their incompetence.


As a result of the French blood spilled that night, President Loubet refused to allow the Russians to refuel at any of their port cities. Reaching Port Arthur seemed impossible until a new route was charted. Rather than heading eastwards, the Russians decided they would head west, cross the Straights of Magellan, steam north up the Americas and cross the Pacific via the American territories of Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines. Although the United States was official isolationist, Roosevelt felt that a weaker Japan would be less of a threat in the Pacific and we struck an absurdly high price for the coal and shelters the Russians would be receiving. In fact, that money would be later used in the McCormick Bargain.


Morale was extremely low, and if you looked up 'hardass' in a Russian dictionary, you would see a picture of Rozhestvensky. It wasn't uncommon for him to order his gunners to fire a live shell as a warning shot over the bow of other ships in the fleet. Only problem was, his gunners weren't very good shots.”


The Fighting Statesman: Theodore Roosevelt's Presidencies by Fernand Braudel, Tulane University (1965)
 
Upon reflection this may be a little ASB but it seemed reasonable when I was writing it.

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Chapter III:



Rozhestvensky might still be remembered a martyr by some in Russia, but amongst us he will always be considered a tyrant, as he was. History has sided with my grandfather and his fellow revolutionaries. That is what they were, not mutineers, but revolutionaries, throwing off the yoke a brutal regime. They were malnourished, mistreated, thousands of miles away from home. There were already murmurs and complaints before Rozhestvensky sunk his own ship.


About 300 Russian sailors died within a matter of minutes that fateful day in Janurary. In any other case it would have been considered a crack shot, but that day, what was supposed to be warning shot penetrated the boiler of the Ushakov. The officers were already furious with him after the incident in the channel because he used it as an excuse to be rid of the officers he had grudges with.


He still had those loyal to him, but he kept most of them on his flagship, Knyaz Suvorov. So they sunk it and rounded up the other loyal ones on the other ships. The question was what to do next, where to go. So little of them had had any real education about the world at large, let alone the South Atlantic. My grandfather, Gregori, was chosen as the ambassador for the fleet since he spoke the best French. So they steamed towards their next scheduled destination – Santos, Brazil.


Most expected that they would have to return to Russia, which would either mean death or Siberia. Of course, no one could have imagined what happened next.”

2005 BBN (Brazilian Broadcast News) interview with Gregori Kamakov, Ambassador of [FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]São Paulo to the IC,[/FONT] on the 100th Anniversary of the High Seas Revolution

Second Pacific Fleet Defects. Tsar Demands Return of Ships and Crew”
The Observer headline, February 1st, 1905

The situation in Brazil deteriorated quickly. First off, the sheer tonnage of the Black Fleet, as we would come to call it, was making the central government nervous when it was just stopping by. Now, they had ten thousand rebellious sailors sitting on the largest naval power in the South Atlantic off the coast of [FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]São Paulo.[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Then you combine that with a dodgy federal government, a rising middle class, a frustrated peasant population and the recent influx of European immigrants bringing ideas of socialism and anarchy, a revolution, of some sort or another, was inevitable. For what it could have been, it was relatively painless.[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]When the Black Fleet arrived in the Port of Santos, the Brazilian navy was nonexistent due to the 'Revolt of the Navy' just over a decade before. In an embarrassing move, the small contingent of the army that was station in Santos attempted to surrender to the Russian landing party. News spread to São Paulo and Rio that there was an invasion. In São Paulo the people seized control of the city. Jorge Tibiriçá Piratininga, President of the Province of São Paulo was assassinated by his own state police. It reminded me of what Paris Uprising must have been like, except this time they were more successful. In the countryside, the coffee barons were ran off their plantations and the workers seized them for themselves.[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]The leaders of São Paulo approached the Black Fleet. An accord was struck. The fleet sailed east to Rio with a delegation representing the 'Collective of São Paulo'. They demanded recognition of independence and that no attempt would be made by the Brazilian government to reclaim the lost territories. If these terms were not met within 24 hours, the Black Fleet would begin its bombardment of Rio. The government was helpless, the only possible help, either the British or United States, being days or even weeks away. President Rodrigues Alves signed the Treaty of Guanabara Bay, acknowledging the Collective of São Paulo, on January 30[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif], 1905. Alves appeared to be emotionally destroyed, knowing he could never return home.”[/FONT]


[FONT=Palatino Linotype, serif]Excerpt from the Diary of Lieutenant Archer Adams, adjunct of Post-Captain Somerset Arthur Gough-Calthorpe[/FONT]
 
i'm finding this to be a very interesting and unique tl.
chapter iii probably needs to be fleshed out a little bit. it does seem a little asb, but not entirely implausible. were there revolutionary thoughts in sao paolo at the time? you're a good writer so more details on how the high seas revolution went down might make it more believable.
 
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