This is a timeline that is going to focus on a navally inclined Vijayanagar, that tries to increase its wealth and power by controlling trade, which was mostly in the hands of the Arabs, and Persians
IOTL. However, all the ingredients to make Vijayanagar successful at sea were already in the empire. For starters, the Indians had a robust shipbuilding industry from at least the Chola time, (who had made the Bay of Bengal a Chola lake). For another, the Tamil and Keralite kingdoms of the south always had people with naval skills, as had the Gujaratis, who were traders and sailors par excellence. I am starting considerably early to give the Vijayanagar a chance to build up before the Europeans start arriving, and also to give Vijayanagar an incentive to contest control of the sea with the others. Therefore, my start of the timeline is in the 1350s, when the Vijayanagar kingdom had just been formed and the Bahmani kingdom (or rather, the proto-Bahmani kingdom) was struggling for independence against Delhi. Their success initially against the Vijayanagar empire and particularly against the Musunuri Nayaks of Andhra was what provided them the impetus to gain independence from Delhi. Otherwise, it is doubtful if the kingdom would have ever become viable on its own.
This timeline was inspired by Flocculencio, whose ‘Vijayanagar Ascendant’ has explored the timeline superbly, but from a different direction. However, there are a few things that are considerably different from his viewpoint.
IOTL, the 1355-1359 war between the Bahmani kingdom and the Musunuri Nayak coalition (Musunuri Nayaks of Warangal, Vijayanagar, the Recherla Nayaks of Bhuvanagiri and the Reddies of Addanki) was a watershed. The Bahmani kingdom suffered disastrous defeats initially, losing Bidar and Kaulas to Vinayaka Deva (the son of Kaapaya Nayaka, the Musunuri ruler of Warangal) and Sagar to Vijayanagar. Its stronghold of Bijapur had been besieged by the Vijayanagar troops. However, in 1356, the death of Harihara I of Vijayanagar led to a brief succession war between Bukka Raya I and his opponents, during which the Vijayanagar troops withdrew from the coalition to help put Bukka Raya I on the throne. The exit of Vijayanagar encouraged the Recherla Velama Nayaks of Bhuvanagiri like Singama to hedge their bets (they helped both sides in the hope that they would win, whichever side came up). The Bahmani kingdom took full advantage of this respite gained, drew the inexperienced Vinayaka Deva into a trap, where he was killed and his army routed. By the time Bukka Raya I returned to the war with his army, it was too late for the allies. Here, I am making the assumption that Harihara I lives for a few more years, the war is prosecuted with full vigour with the Velama chiefs of Bhuvanagiri keeping faith since the allies are winning and the Bahamani kingdom loses its southern possessions early in its life.
Also, I am putting original history occurrence in brackets and mentioning clearly how and what I am changing. Any and all criticism is welcome. Please let me know if you think I am going too far anywhere, and too much in favour of anyone.
Vijayanagar Timeline
1356-58 - War with Bahmani Sultanate, in conjunction with the Musunuri Nayaks and the Reddies of Addanki. The victorious Vijayanagar seize Goa, Belgaum, Bijapur, Sagar and Kolhapur. The Musunuri Nayaks seize Bidar and Gulburga. Bahmani kingdom retreats towards Daulatabad, and Ahmednagar.
1360 - Harihara I dies.
Strategic situation: Vijayanagar is one of the several kingdoms in the peninsula. They are on good terms with the Musunuri kingdom of Andhra and the Reddy kingdom of Addanki. The Bahmani kingdom to the north is still a threat, but the defeats have reduced its power. The Delhi sultanate is still very powerful and very interested in recovering the lost territories of the south. However, they need to put their own house in order and Muhammad bin Tughlaq’s ruination of the country has made put a curb on their ambitions for the moment, and still preoccupied in dealing with the plethora of revolts that occurred in the aftermath of the mad Tughlaq king’s death. In the south, there is the Madurai sultanate, but it is weak and trying to hold its lands together. However, its economy is quite strong, and given time, it could become a very powerful opponent of Vijayanagar.
Vijayanagar’s army is only moderate and mostly based on infantry. There are few horses in the kingdom suitable for a cavalry and it cannot afford to hire mercenaries. A strong attack from the north will mean that Vijayanagar, incapable of facing the enemy in the field, will be forced to fight back from its strong forts in the Tungabhadra region and farther south. Its power is roughly on par with the power of the Musunuri Andhra kingdom and slightly more than the weakened Bahmani kingdom.
Vijayanagar’s economy is based on small farmers, often working for powerful landlords. Famines are common. Some forest produce augments the economy of the farmers and the gatherers.
The country’s industrial production is based on individual or very small groups of artisans producing cotton fabrics for most part. Some steel and a miniscule quantity of silk are also produced.
Vijayanagar’s traders are almost all small traders, and there are very few traders who can trade with different countries. Mercantile economy is very insignificant.
1361 - Bukka Raya I, the brother of Harihara I, is crowned king of Vijayanagar, after a short period of infighting.
1362-65 - Vijayanagar begins grabbing the territory of the Hoysalas. Hoysala empire, having suffered a huge defeat at the hands of Madurai sultanate, two decades earlier had disintegrated, more or less, with independent chiefs coming up everywhere. Hoysala territory is easily taken over by the Vijayanagar empire, as Vijayanagar simply steps into the power vacuum since the Hoysalas are gone and the chiefs of the central Cauvery area and Salem are scared of the Madurai sultanate and are glad of Vijayanagar’s help. An added advantage of this policy is that Madurai sultanate is cut off from the other Muslim kingdoms of the north and is having trouble just holding its territory. Vijayanagar cements its hold on Mangalore, Mysore, Bangalore and Dharmapuri areas.
This brings in several advantages. From just the one port in Goa, Vijayanagar manages to get hold of another important port, Mangalore. This port, the natural outlet of the Mysore region is an important addition. Further, the economy of the country significantly improves. The middle Cauvery region is an important rice growing area. Silk is also produced in the Mysore-Bangalore areas, but it is often coarse and substandard, and not of the Chinese quality. Steel (Wootz steel) is also produced in smaller quantities in the Mysore-Salem region.
1366 - Analysing the weaknesses of the Indian armies, Bukka Raya and his Council of Ministers find three major problems. The first, of course, is the disparity between the revenue and resources of the Delhi sultanate and the southern kingdoms. The second was the superiority of the Delhi cavalry. South Indian cavalry was never large/trained enough to beat the Turkish and Afghan horsemen. This means that the Delhi sultanate has considerably greater mobility. The final reason was the infighting among the southern kingdoms and even within kingdoms, that had as enthusiastically fought each other as they had fought the Delhi sultanate. The lack of cooperation between the southern kingdoms had certainly helped the Delhi sultanate. Further, the freedom enjoyed by vassals inside kingdoms had also contributed to the demise of the state, since the vassals often deserted at critical junctures to fulfil their own political ambitions. Analysing the reasons, the ministers realise that they need to improve the revenues of the state and obtain better cooperation between south Indian kingdoms.
1367 - Bukka Raya makes an important change in the control of the armies. All armies would be completely controlled by the emperor, and the army would be commanded by imperial commanders directly appointed by the emperor. The nobles were expressly forbidden from arming or hiring soldiers. Either raising or hiring soldiers would be construed as acts of treason, under the new edict. Those who controlled their own territories were to pay a fixed amount in war tax, but all raising and arming of soldiers was the explicit domain of the king and his officials, who were appointed for specific terms. All soldiers swore an oath of loyalty to the king when taking up their arms. Their pay also came from the king, not from the vassals.
Bukka Raya also made some important reforms for agriculture. For agriculture, taxes were fixed at one fourth of the produce. Industry and trade were taxed differently, but the taxes came to roughly that amount. He also appointed judges to arbitrate disputes impartially. The judges had the right to try anyone accused in the region. This radically cut down on the abuses perpetrated by the nobles. He appoints imperial tax collectors to assess precisely the value of the produce and set taxes accordingly.
1368-70 - Many nobles, mainly in the Cauvery region, which had the old nobility from the Hoysala times, revolt against this change in policy. Bukka Raya, who had anticipated precisely this reaction, marches with his army against the rebellious chieftains, and brings them to heel. The nobles are crushed in a three year campaign, thanks to the speed of Bukka Raya’s reaction. This strengthens the imperial army and its administration.
1368 - Death of Musunuri Kaapaneedu. His son, Vinayaka Deva, ascends the throne. Vijayanagar and the Musunuri Kingdom of Andhra sign a treaty of mutual protection and alliance.
1370 - Another war with Bahmani kingdom, in alliance with the Musunuri Nayaks, ends in a desultory draw since the allied supply and communication lines are stretched and the Bahmani kingdom is in entrenched strongly in the fortresses in the Ahmednagar and Daulatabad areas. The logistics wing of the army is found to be extremely weak and defective.
1371 - A formal intelligence wing is developed. It is authorised to investigate everyone. One of the advantages is that the demise of the bulk of the Hoysala and Kakatiya empires has left a void where Vijayanagar can develop a new ruling class that is loyal to it.
1371 - Kampa Raya, the crown prince, leads an expedition against the Shambuva Raya of Kanchi. Shambuva Raya is routed and his kingdom annexed to the Vijayanagar empire. (IOTL, they put another local man as the ruler of Kanchi.) The Vijayanagar empire now gets access to the Madras area.
1374 - Kampa Raya leads an expedition against the Madurai Sultanate. Madurai sultanate is routed and Thiruchirapally and Thanjavoor occupied. Vijayanagar begins reorganising its infantry based on pikes and longbows.
(There is a curious phenomenon here that is never properly explained anywhere. IOTL, Kampa Raya led a campaign against the Madurai Sultanate, destroyed it, and brought the Madurai sultanate territory - which comprised of southern and central Tamil Nadu of today - under either direct imperial administration or put it under friendly vassals. One of the primary sources of this campaign makes an interesting remark, which basically says that Kampa Raya chose a marshy piece of land for his battle with the Madurai sultanate. He put his spearmen in front in a solid line and the reckless Madurai sultanate horsemen charged against the spear wielding infantry on unfavourable ground, where the horsemen suffered heavy casualties and fled the field. The surprising thing is that no one else has mentioned much about this, and Vijayanagar never had a top class infantry to write home about.
Vijayanagar would, in fact, despair of the efficiency of its infantry and begin recruiting ‘Turk’ (read Muslim) mercenary horsemen, starting in the early fifteenth century to aid in their campaigns against the horse based Bahmani armies. In any case, Kampa Raya died of illness shortly after the conquest of Madurai and one of his brothers became the king of Vijayanagar. Here is where I am making my other changes. The first change is that Kampa Raya, realising the efficiency of the infantry, began organising the infantry in more disciplined formations, a mixture of pikes and longbows. Longbows were, in fact, a mainstay of the Vijayanagar infantry (and any other Indian infantry), and they were quite effective. Their main problem was that they were very vulnerable to cavalry charges and Indian longbows did not have the penetrative power or the firing rate of the English (or rather, Welsh) longbows. If the pikes become effective and organised in Vijayanagar and longbows, able to operate under the protection of the pikes, become a bit more effective, the kingdom will begin with a very well trained and disciplined infantry and a very different army from that has been seen in India for quite some time. Further, I am making the assumption that it is Kampa Raya who comes to the throne after the death of Bukka Raya I in 1377 and he gets a fairly long reign to organise his army as he wishes.)
1375 - Madurai Sultanate routed again, Madurai occupied. The Vijayanagar army occupies everything until Kanyakumari. Tuticorin becomes another important port.
The economy benefits magnificently. For one thing, the Cauvery delta is a rich rice producing area and its cultivators are a great source of tax, not to mention the increased man power for the army. Further, the old Chola ship building centres in the regions south of the Cauvery fall into Vijayanagar hands. They now hold both the shipbuilding centres in Goa and further south in Tamil country.
1376 - The new capital of Vijayanagar is founded on the southern banks of the Tungabhadra and the royal family moves to the new city from the old capital of Anegondi on the northern bank of the Tungabhadra.
1377 - Death of Bukka Raya I and the accession of Kampa Raya I to the throne of Vijayanagar.
Strategic situation: The situation has considerably improved for Vijayanagar. While the northern situation is the same, the southern situation has improved enormously. With the elimination of the Madurai sultanate, it has gained access to the Kanchi plains, the Cauvery delta and farther south. Roughly, it covers the territory once occupied by the Hoysala and the Pandya kingdoms. Its economy has greatly benefited by the acquisition of these rich lands. More importantly, its military prestige is at a high pitch for the successful war against the despised Madurai sultanate. Further, the Madurai sultanate perished with the bulk of the nobles (and many nobles were executed by the victorious Vijayanagar), so creation of a new ruling class loyal to Vijayanagar is made much easier than if a powerful old nobility were to be hanging on. But most importantly, Vijayanagar has gained access to the old Chola ship building areas and artisans skilled in building ships. This is going to become vital in the coming years.
The situation in the north India is virtually unchanged. The Delhi sultanate is still in damage control mode, but more and more areas are slipping out of its grasp and there are revolts everywhere.
In the south, the Bahmani kingdom is struggling to come to terms with the new power situation, importing what horses and arms it can from Persia and central Asia through the small port of Vengurla. It is eyeing Bombay and the northern Maharashtra area hungrily, but the area is still under Delhi sultanate influence, so the sultan is a little wary, since Firuz Shah Tughlaq of Delhi is still a formidable force, and it is not wise to annoy him.
The Andhra kingdom is slightly smaller than Vijayanagar, but thanks to the fast growth of Vijayanagar, the relations between the two are becoming a touch strained. However, at least on paper, they are still allies.
There are a number of small kingdoms - the Recherla Nayaks of Bhuvanagiri, the Reddies of Addanki, and the kings of Malabar who are nominally independent.