OE in A CP Victor World

What would the future of the Ottoman Empire look like if the Central Powers won WWI? I know that the way the CP wins WWI is important when discussing this, but since WWI isn't my forte I am unsure of when to have them win it.

Would the Ottomans maintain their hold on the Middle East? Or would they, as it has been posited, slowly collapse like a flan in a cupboard? I'm sure there are plenty of members on here that could argue both points. With Egypt becoming more important, would the Ottomans threaten the British hold there?
 
I am of the opinion that

-1- The Ottoman Empire's territories will be retained in full
-2- Egypt will be recognised as independent
-3- Libya is likely to be accepted as lost, but the Dodecanese recovered
-4- Other Aegean islands, and possibly even Crete, will return to Ottoman sovereignty
-5- There will be some trouble with lingering Arab sentiment etc, but this will die out in time
-6- The Ottomans will focus on subduing Ibn Saud, at least in so far as he is a threat, and in building their infrastructure
-7- Long term they will adopt a neutralist position, and develop their various oil industries

In this I have assumed that any peace with Britain has to be by negotiation, and that whilst Britain can be coerced to withdraw from all occupied territories it cannot be forced out of what it holds in its own right.

I have also assumed that Greece is a co-belligerent of the Allies, and is treated in this manner

Italy MIGHT lose Libya in extreme circumstances, but it would take an Italian, rather than a French collapse, to bring this about

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
IIRC the Libyans at that time wanted OE back quite badly, didn't they ? So (badly sounded question, yes) why OE would still gonna lost Libya ? :confused:
 

Thande

Donor
IIRC the Libyans at that time wanted OE back quite badly, didn't they ? So (badly sounded question, yes) why OE would still gonna lost Libya ? :confused:

The Libyans' opinion is irrelevant, unless the peace is decided by a Wilsonian series of plebiscites, which seems unlikely in a CP victory.
 
It comes down to whether Germany can force Italy to give Libya back to Ottoman control

And if not, then it comes down to whether Italy can crush the Senussi rebellion

Beyond those, the actual preferences of the natives of Libya wouldn't really be entertained

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Sure, I just don't know why Libya wouldn't go back to Ottoman Empire....

Mainly because it isn't occupied by Central Powers troops

Since 1911 it has been in Italian hands, and whilst the Senussi revolt during the war has seen quite a bit, IIRC mainly of Cyrenaica, throw off Italian control, it also began to falter in the latter part of the war

If Italy is making peace primarily because of the defeat of its allies - ie a collapse on the Western Front in France, then Italy's military situation is not affected. It is not going to be possible to FORCE Italy to give up Libya, especially as the coastal cities remain in Italian hands

However, if Italy is on the defeated side AND the Italian front has collapsed, then Germany will be in a potential position to coerce her into retroceding either all of Libya, or perhaps just Cyrenaica, to Ottoman control

If Italy is not so forced, then the fate of the native Libyans comes to depend on whether the Italian army can crush the Senussi rebellion. Unless the rebellion gets aid from somewhere (eg an independent Egypt) then the answer is most likely that they will be crushed


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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