Oder-Neisse line after ww1

It is often claimed than Stalin has taken idea of pushing Poland west from previous Imperial Russian plans ('Sazonov Plan').
So let's say victorious Russia really came with simillar solution post-ww1.
Poland was more troublesom that it was worth for Russia, the very existence of Poland would not be unacceptable for Russia, but Poland that would have claims in the East was different story. So giving majority German lands to Poland would be perfect solution to solve Polish problem-it would make Poles forever afraid of German revenge forcing them to look for Russian protection. That was Stalin's goal when he pushed for Oder-Neisse border.
So say that minister of foreign affairs Sazonov really came with that solution post ww1 and it is accepted-harsh, but possible I think-Russian main goal-Turkish Straits and access to "Warm Seas" seems less realistic-not only UK but even France would oppose it. On the other hand France will be more than happy seeing Germany weakened so much, unlike Britain which would hate the idea. In the end agreement is reached (read "everyone is equally disapointed" ;) ) -Russia is not given Straits, instead is given German lands East of Eastern Neisse and Germany keeps Stettin. Also-Austria is allowed to join Germany to compensate loses. These German lands are joined with Congress Poland, which is given to member of the House of Romanov (maybe one of Tsar's daughters?) as monarch, thus western Russian flank is protected by buffor state and Polish problem is solved-Germans are not expelled, so that new vassal Poland is neutralised by internal ethnic conflict. How would situation develop? Would radical movements took power in Germany earlier? Perhaps Weimar Republic never came into existence or is very short living? Would Europe be more stable overall with Russia in winning camp despite stronger German revanchism?
 
If the Empire survives to the peace table, it will get whatever it wants in the East and France whatever it wants in the West per their agreement. Oder-Neise is quite probable

As for the straits, the Russians are likely to get them as well. The wartime agreements gave them to Russia and no one is up for a huge war after WWI. Russia can also easily march through Romania and Bulgaria to get them
 
Even Erzensberger would not sign a treaty like that in Versailles...
If Russia is able to present such claim thats means Russians already are there, so it is not Versailles, it is something between Versailles and Potsdam.
And it might be a bit different from Oder-Neisse line, say Kolberg-Glogau-Oder-Neisse.
 
I imagine something like this:
broder1.png


Half-way between 1939 and 1945 Polish Western border, relatively straight, altough a bit longer than Oder-Neisse line.
 
As I mentioned in the "France gets Rhineland in 1919" thread - Widespread nationalist agitation and a Vietnam-esque insurgency. Good luck trying to hold on to East Germany for more than a decade.
 
As I mentioned in the "France gets Rhineland in 1919" thread - Widespread nationalist agitation and a Vietnam-esque insurgency. Good luck trying to hold on to East Germany for more than a decade.
Czechs managed to keep Sudetenland for longer time without external help, and it was definitely not Vietnam. Also-interwar Poland managed to hold todays Western Ukraine with hostile nationalist Ukrainian population-again, no Vietnam.
 
Czechs managed to keep Sudetenland for longer time without external help, and it was definitely not Vietnam. Also-interwar Poland managed to hold todays Western Ukraine with hostile nationalist Ukrainian population-again, no Vietnam.

1) The Stab in the back myth would be much more prevalent ITTL

2) There are tens of millions of Germans seperated from their homeland, much higher than IOTL. And this time, not only do you have a small corridor, you just took away a huge chunk of their ancestral lands.

3) This is Tsarist Russia, a backwards slowly decaying Autocracy already dealing with widespread internal strife. Even if it survived the war, it would be severly weakened. Might give some German nationalists a few funny ideas.

4) It's simply too implausible. There's no way the Germans would ever sign such a treaty. Whether or not Versailles was unfair is debatable but this ATL treaty is just absurd. You now have given them a reason to fight to the bitter end rather than seek an armistice. Great job pissing off your allies with a overly unacceptable peace offer.
 
Also, how are you gonna justify this? There's no Holocaust or Wehrmacht-level war crimes to punish. Frankly, this scenario requires a rich handwavium deposit to happen.
 
1) Guerilla warfare is overrated-Russia, Austria-Hungary and Germany kept over 20 milions of Poles under their rule until ww1 and did not faced everlasting uprising. Also-1/3 of Hungarian nation was left outside Trianon borders, again, no uprisings.
2) It is Russian goal to make Poles busy.
3) There are no "tens of millions" of Germans there.
4) There is less "stab in the back" because Russians are already on German soil.
5) Because Russians are already there they don't need to ask wheater Germans are willing to gave that land or not.
6) Justification is easy- "we are winners you are loosers", and it is only border change, no expulsion. Hungarians lost lands inhabited by 1/3 of their nation without commiting Holocaust.
 
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Also-1/3 of Hungarian nation was left outside Trianon borders, again, no uprisings.

A good chunk of that was not even Hungarian populated in the first place.

It is Russian goal to make Poles busy.

By making them a minority in their own country? Yeah, definitely gonna backfire horrifically.

There are no "tens of millions" of Germans there.

Yes indeed, there's over 12 million angry Germans.

There is less "stab in the back" because Russians are already on German soil.

Which was happily handed over to them without a fight by "unpatriotic cowards". The Germans would definitely see it as a stab in the back. And it's even worse now.

Because Russians are already there they don't need to ask wheater Germans are willing to gave that land or not.

Which is the perfect way to trigger nationalist unrest in the first place.
 
Poles are still clear majority-Poland doesn't get Oder-Neisse line literally, they would still be around 2/3 Poles in the country, like IOTL.
And there is simple explaination for that situation-communist revolution in Germany, WAllies and Russians are unable to overthrow revolutional government completly, so they carved out of Germany as much land as possible to stop spread of communism.
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
This would have to be dictated in Berlin, with both the Anglo-French and Russians, over a literal mountain of German corpses like in OTL WWII.

I just don't see that happening. If Imperial Russia survives it'd be by the skin of its teeth and I'd be surprised, shocked actually, if by 1919 these Russians are on the Vistula let alone Berlin.
 
ITTL Russians are not just survuving to the end of war-they have to do better from the very start, if not earlier, thus never lost Ukraine and Belarus-that means Germany face starvation without Ukrainian grain, so war will ends sooner than OTL with earlier German exhaustion.
Kaiser is deposed for sure, new government ask for peace when situation is helpless with enemy forces already on German soil, that government refuse allied terms, but lost credibility anyway, as it is blamed for letting enemies to enter German territory. Radical revolution (most likely some mix of communism and nationalism) starts-radicals have advantage of being able to mobilise forces even in exhausted country, so they would prevail in the end, Entente tries to stop revolution but fails, so they just secure the most defensible lines to prevent it from spreading.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Russia is able to present such claim thats means Russians already are there, so it is not Versailles, it is something between Versailles and Potsdam.
And it might be a bit different from Oder-Neisse line, say Kolberg-Glogau-Oder-Neisse.
The challenge is getting Russia to be that strong and to avoid collapse, though.

ITTL Russians are not just survuving to the end of war-they have to do better from the very start, if not earlier, thus never lost Ukraine and Belarus-that means Germany face starvation without Ukrainian grain, so war will ends sooner than OTL with earlier German exhaustion.
Kaiser is deposed for sure, new government ask for peace when situation is helpless with enemy forces already on German soil, that government refuse allied terms, but lost credibility anyway, as it is blamed for letting enemies to enter German territory. Radical revolution (most likely some mix of communism and nationalism) starts-radicals have advantage of being able to mobilise forces even in exhausted country, so they would prevail in the end, Entente tries to stop revolution but fails, so they just secure the most defensible lines to prevent it from spreading.
If you want an early Entente WWI victory, you could delay the development of the Haber-Bosch process. Indeed, that would cause Germany to run out of munitions around 1916 and thus sue for peace on Allied terms.
 
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