Odenathus Invictus

What happens if Odenathus is more canny in his family politics and manages to avoid his OTL assassination in 267 CE? IIRC the assassin was motivated more by personal embarrassment after some insult at a banquet than by politics, thus, I think it unlikely that he would be the victim of a later assassination and could well live another 10-20 years. After his death Vaballathus, rather than Zenobia, will become the center of power, and said son will not have the same incentives to rebel that Zenobia did (he has a pretty comfortable position as Odenathus' lawful, recognized successor, after all). Thus the apex of the Crisis of the Third Cent. will play out very differently than OTL; Aurelian after defeating the Gallic Emperors will likely be able to campaign against Persia much more effectively. Does this change the overall balance of power in late antiquity? By how much? When/how might Rome end up divided/falling?
 
To my knowledge, Odenanathus was a loyal ally of Rome. It is therefore quite possible that had he lived, Aurelian wouldn't have had to deal with a rebellious Palmyra but could've focused on the Sassanids (after regaining Gaul). Moreover I think he would've fared pretty well since I get the impression, from Emesa, that the Roman army had learned from its earlier, awful defeats in the East.
 
Odenathus was a faithful lieutenant of the empire because Gallienus grudgingly recognized his de facto overall indipendence from central government, once such recognition is no longer necessary, Aurelian will attack Odenathus to take back the Eastern portion of the empire. But, for argument’s sake, let’s say Aurelian decides to leave things as they are, the greatest success he could ever achieve should be on par with Galerius’ victory at Satala in 298, anything more than that would have been virtually impossible.
 
Odenathus was a faithful lieutenant of the empire because Gallienus grudgingly recognized his de facto overall indipendence from central government, once such recognition is no longer necessary, Aurelian will attack Odenathus to take back the Eastern portion of the empire. But, for argument’s sake, let’s say Aurelian decides to leave things as they are,

Even if he had to overcome Palmyra as in the OTL, I believe his ultimate intention was to fight the Sassanids.

the greatest success he could ever achieve should be on par with Galerius’ victory at Satala in 298, anything more than that would have been virtually impossible.

The Romans never did much more than take Ctesiphon, after beating the eastern enemy. They couldn't crush Persia for all time.
 
Even if he had to overcome Palmyra as in the OTL, I believe his ultimate intention was to fight the Sassanids.

Never denied that, but ensuring the stability of the empire by reuniting it was always Aurelian’s priority.

The Romans never did much more than take Ctesiphon, after beating the eastern enemy. They couldn't crush Persia for all time.

At Satala in 298 Galerius managed to severely defeat Narses’ army and capture his whole retinue, including his wife, it was probably the most successful victory ever achieved by Rome over the Sassanids and it was the best kind of result Aurelian could ever hope for his campaign in Persia. I’m not saying he would have necessarily succeeded, or that he would have done something more than simply capture Ctesiphon, but considering Aurelian’s military and diplomatic skills, it was entirely possible he could achieve a resounding victory, if he’s given time and opportunity to properly prepare himself.
 
Might Persia descend into civil war if the Shahanshah and his family are killed or captured? The House of Sasan had been in power for only half a century at this point.
 
Might Persia descend into civil war if the Shahanshah and his family are killed or captured? The House of Sasan had been in power for only half a century at this point.

It would be nearly impossible for Aurelian to capture Shapur and all his sons, but in case Shapur were to be captured, his sons would probably contend for the throne for a short while.
 
How far would that civil war escalate?

Probably as far as all civil wars involving the Sassanian empire went, 3-5 years where kings quickly succeed one another until at last one of them manages to mantain power and restore a semblance of control over his subjects.
 
It would be nearly impossible for Aurelian to capture Shapur and all his sons, but in case Shapur were to be captured, his sons would probably contend for the throne for a short while.


Shapur died around 270 CE so he'd have to deal with a successor.
 
Shapur died around 270 CE so he'd have to deal with a successor.

He must have died between 270-272, so if Aurelian decides to deal first with Victorinus ITTL, then yes, he will face a successor, but point is still valid, it’d be impossible to capture or kill the whole family.
 
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