Odds of a new Iran-Iraq war

Zeus

Banned
What would have been the odds of a second Iran-Iraq war occurring had Saddam not been overthrown? If a war would have occurred, when and why would it have occurred and what would have been the outcome?
 
mean if there was no Iraq war? it seems highly unlikely, Iran before that was trying to be more moderate, trying to reach out the West, the War in Iraq really boned that one up, Saddam's hold on Iraq was shaky any war would knock them right over and Saddam knew it, so nether Iran nor Iraq wanted a war, it might happen if Iran found Iraq strongly backing the People's Mujahedin of Iran, something like a major bombing or assassination, but it'd be a short war.
 

Zeus

Banned
mean if there was no Iraq war? it seems highly unlikely, Iran before that was trying to be more moderate, trying to reach out the West, the War in Iraq really boned that one up, Saddam's hold on Iraq was shaky any war would knock them right over and Saddam knew it, so nether Iran nor Iraq wanted a war, it might happen if Iran found Iraq strongly backing the People's Mujahedin of Iran, something like a major bombing or assassination, but it'd be a short war.

Yeah, I was talking about the odds of a new Iran-Iraq War had Saddam stayed in power. I was thinking about the possibility of Iraq experiencing large riots and protests during the Arab Spring, and then have Iran intervene on behalf of the Iraqi Shiites (since it saw a golden opportunity to topple an old enemy). Do you guys think this is plausible? As for who would win, I think it would depend on whether sanctions on Iran and/or Iraq were lifted and on who got the better military technology. I could honestly see a second Iran-Iraq war going either way, but I'm not an expert about this topic.
 
I think it's exceedingly unlikely given that if the US doesn't invade it probably maintains its presence in Saudi Arabia and Operation Southern Watch goes on. With that kind of daily US presence in Iraqi airspace I can't see the Iranians pushing a war with Iraq.
 
Is there a chance *Iran* would have started it?
Because parts of Irak had been persian in distant past, they have petroleum, and Saddan was pounaide...
 
The problem is I don't see the end of Southern Watch while Saddam stays in power. With that kind of scrutiny I don't think the potential gains are worth the risks in terms of international pressure and just sheer annoyance for the Iranians to try and roll into Iraq.

And as long as Southern Watch lasts Iraq isn't going to be starting anything. Heck, an attempt by Saddam to invade Iran, in addition to being ruthlessly schwacked by the Iranians whose military forces haven't been pummeled for the past ten years, gives creedence to the whole US concept that Iraq is an aggressive state that has designs on all its neighbors.
 
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