Since I have been brushing up on rather obscure and useless history trivia, I have become aware how autonomous Lebanon was during the Ottoman era. The Shihabi amirs in the 1700s and early 1800s managed to rule the land not as subjects to the Sultan but as their own rulers.
Originally Sunni Muslims, the Shihabis were known for their tolerant rule over a diverse array of religious communities; including Druze, (mainly) Maronite Christians and Muslims. The second to last of the line, Amir Bashir II Shihabi converted to Maronite Christianity and established an alliance between himself and the Druze in the face of a hostile central authority. Unfortunatly, he backed Muhammad Ali Pasha, ruler of Egypt during the latter's open defiance of the Ottoman Sultan. While the latter was left largely to his own devices after the British bailed the Ottomans out; Amir Bashir II (deposed 1840), his house (direct Ottoman rule was restored in 1842), and many of his co-religionists (disfavor and occasional massacres were common afterwards) suffered from that gamble.
POD: What if he decides to not ally with Muhammed Ali and remains neutral in the conflict? What happens next?