Obama's Political Career if Gore Beats Bush

[Amadeus]

One thing that many "Gore 2000" TL's don't touch upon is what would happen to Obama's political career if Gore had won in 2000. In OTL, Obama rose to prominence through his 2004 DNC speech and opposition to the Iraq War. Had Gore been President at least from 2001-2005, it's less likely that Obama is chosen as the 2004 keynote speaker and without the Iraq War he is that much less of a national figure in 2008. What would've happened to Obama's political career if Gore had won in 2000?

 

[dw93]

Unless Fitzgerald runs for re election ITTL, Obama is still elected to the Senate. I still maintain that Gore, while being better than Bush, would narrowly go down in defeat in 2004, and Hillary probably has a lock on 2008 ITTL and her chances of victory depend on when the financial crisis hits and how the GOP handles foreign policy from 2005-2009. If the economy stays afloat until election day 2008 and things are stable abroad, Hillary loses in 2008, only for a Republican to have a hellish second term, so Obama could run and win in 2012 after 2 Republican terms, or 2016 if a Democrat wins in 2008.

 

[Amadeus]

Unless Fitzgerald runs for re election ITTL, Obama is still elected to the Senate.

Fitzgerald's fight against corruption angered the state GOP, which is why he didn't run again, and I don't think this POD changes that. However I do agree that HRC is more likely to win the Democratic nomination in 2008. IMO the economy would be stronger without Bush, but the fundamental causes of the financial crisis would be unchanged by Gore or any Republican elected in 2004. So the Great Recession still breaks out in 2007 or early 2008 at the latest, but this would be after most Democrats declare their presidential candidacies. Clinton running would depend on whether or not the Republican (probably McCain) is popular from 2005-07. A possible scenario would be that major candidates like Clinton and Obama decline to run, and instead someone like Edwards is nominated and elected in a surprise victory not unlike 1992. The scandalous Edwards loses in 2012, or resigns before he could run again, and Obama has his moment in 2016.