What if in the 1996 election the National Party and parties that it could form a government with(other than NZ First)? This is possible, as the polls in 1996 were all over the place and Helen Clark got a big boost and shrunk National's lead with her wins in the debate, while Bolger did worst in the debates. My PoD is that Clark does badly in the debates while Bolger does well. Labour and NZ First are styuck squabbling for second place while National gets just under 40% of the vote.
1996 New Zealand election
Jim Bolger-National: 51+10 39.94%
Helen Clark-Labour: 23-18 17.89%
Winston Peters-NZ First: 21+16 16.85%
Jim Anderton-Alliance: 14+12 10.70%
Richard Prebble-ACT: 9+9 7.00%
Peter Dunne-United NZ: 2-5 1.28%
120 seats
61 for majority
National can form a government without NZ First as National's 51 seats plus 9 ACT seats and 2 United NZ seats get 62 seats, a majority. Jim Bolger manages to form a government without Winston Peters. With a more stable government and without the National-NZ First coalition, would Jim Bolger still be unseated by Jenny Shipley? How would the 1999 election go-would Helen Clark still win? Would Labour still be able to retain its place among the top two parties with NZ First so close behind? If not, how long would National retain power? Who would replace Bolger if he retires after 1999? What would be the effects on New Zealand politics? What if?