You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly. You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
alternatehistory.com
Here is my speculation on how New Zealand politics goes if Roger Douglas retired in 1981 and comparatively minor reforms were implemented by Labour and national, more similar to Australia.
Recession still strikes so National wins but it's much closer than IOTL.
1990 election:
Bolger-National: 49+11 46.53%
Lange-Labour: 48-11 45.95%
National government as IOTL but Bill Birch is Finance Minister so no Ruthanasia. Yet still, Labour is much stronger and the recession is still painful so...
1993 election:
Moore-Labour: 52+4 48.87%
Bolger-National: 47-2 45.65%
FPP wins electoral referendum 53.14% to 46.86%
With a good economy and the foundation of NZ First in 1994 after some clash Moore wins again.
1996 election:
Moore-Labour: 56+4 46.87%
Lockwood Smith-National: 42-5 40.65%
Peters-NZ First: 1+1 5.35%