Apparently Alexander was really considering destroying the Temple (according to Josephus), so it seems plausible that he might actually go through with it.
Jewish Antiquities by Josephus said:
But the high priest answered the messengers, that he had given his oath to Darius not to bear arms against him[Darius]; and he[the High Priest] said that he would not transgress this while Darius was in the land of the living. Upon hearing this answer, Alexander was very angry; and though he determined not to leave Tyre, which was just ready to be taken, yet as soon as he had taken it, he threatened that he would make an expedition against the Jewish high priest, and through him teach all men to whom they must keep their oaths...the Phoenicians and the Chaldeans that followed him[Alexander] thought they should have liberty to plunder the city, and torment the high priest to death, which the king's displeasure fairly promised them
However, the destruction of the Temple would not seriously endanger Judaism. The vast majority of Jews had never returned from exile in Babylon, which at that time served as the center of Judaism. Judea was a small theocratic state, smaller than most American counties, with a mostly rural population. The Temple was not the magnificent edifice that it would become later after the expansion of the Hasmonean and Herodian state. There were even other Temple's at the same time! The Samaritans, still a sect of Judaism had one on nearby Mt. Gerizim and a Jewish colony in Elephantine Egypt had a Temple that went defunct only a few years before.
There was already a precedent for theological justifications for a destroyed Temple, the Jewish people must have sinned in the eyes of God. As long as the Greeks did not overwhelm the Judean Jews demographically, eventually, the Jerusalem Temple would be rebuilt, and Judea would remain Jewish because the hill country was not that appealing to Greek colonizers. However, this would result in a Temple that is less wealthy and a less appealing to foreigners to pillage.
I find it dubious that the lucky victory of the Maccabean revolt would happen in this TL. Judaism would be more Hellenized, and less centralized. Many of the later books in the Tanakh would be different, especially the book of Daniel. The community in Babylon would be even more distinct than in OTL, and other Temples would continue to exist, like the one at Leontopolis. The spectrum of Jewish observance would be much broader.