Nukes on Nazis in 1945/1946 TL?

I'm looking for recommendations on any TLs where Nukes are used in Europe as part of an effort to force the Third Reich to surrender in 1945/1946. Presumably iTTL, either the Soviets have surrendered or are doing *significant* worse than OTL without having Surrendered.

(So somewhere between OTL and the Anglo-American/Nazi War)

Suggestions?
 

Bonanza

Banned
Problem is if the Soviets are defeated between 41/42 there will be no Nukes against Germany because it will have secured Europe and beaten the Allied bombing offensive. - If the Soviets are not beaten then they dont do much worse than OTL and the war is over by summer 1945 anyway.
 
I'm looking for recommendations on any TLs where Nukes are used in Europe as part of an effort to force the Third Reich to surrender in 1945/1946. Presumably iTTL, either the Soviets have surrendered or are doing *significant* worse than OTL without having Surrendered.

(So somewhere between OTL and the Anglo-American/Nazi War)

Suggestions?

Have the atom bomb developed a little earlier (9 months) and used in january 1945 during the battle of Ardennes. Not on the Ardennes of course but on central Germany (Berlin, or the Ruhr or anywhere else in Germany).
 
Problem is if the Soviets are defeated between 41/42 there will be no Nukes against Germany because it will have secured Europe and beaten the Allied bombing offensive. - If the Soviets are not beaten then they dont do much worse than OTL and the war is over by summer 1945 anyway.

Beating the Soviets still doesn't get the Nazis across the Channel, or stopping a 3 craft B-29 element from radar bombing Berlin at night
 
Problem is if the Soviets are defeated between 41/42 there will be no Nukes against Germany because it will have secured Europe and beaten the Allied bombing offensive. - If the Soviets are not beaten then they dont do much worse than OTL and the war is over by summer 1945 anyway.

So it's somehow magically managed to get across the Channel and secure England then? Please tell me, how do they manage to do that in 1942?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Beating the Soviets still doesn't get the Nazis across the Channel, or stopping a 3 craft B-29 element from radar bombing Berlin at night

It doesn't prevent the former, the latter is a very different issue.

A Reich that is powerful enough to defeat the USSR (and for the country to be in the position depicted in this scenario, not facing invasion, much less not invaded already by late summer of 1945, the USSR has been defeated) is powerful enough to deal with the use of a couple devices. The 1st Gen bombs were't doomsday weapons, not compared to those that were available even five years later. They would destroy a city center quite effectively, and do so with admirable economy of force, but neither nuclear strike did the damage that the March 1945 B-29 Raid on Tokyo managed, and in terms of material damage they were not even that much more effective than any number of other B-29 strikes. They had a major psychological impact on the Japanese leadership when combined with the Soviet DoW, but even then there was considerable opposition to surrender.

Moreover a Reich that has dealt with the Soviets is in vastly better position to fight than Japan in August of 1945. It has access to oil, to food, to raw materials (not all that would be needed for the long term, rubber is a significant issue, just to name one asset, but compared to blockaded Japan it is a land of plenty). The Japanese had effectively given up on trying to stop U.S. photo and weather recon flights, by late 1945, they had mainly given up on even seriously interfering with the night bombing, they were husbanding assets for the invasion. The Reich never surrendered its skies, it had ever fewer aircraft, but it had AAA that the Japanese couldn't even dream of acquiring. With the huge pressure of fighting the Red Army removed the number of AAA batteries could explode, especially the 12.8cm FlaK 40 and the various flavors of the 8.8cm FlaK. There would also be far more fighters available, both day and night. The battle of attrition that was won by the WAllies in OTL by March of 1944 would very likely not be won by late summer of 1945. That 3 aircraft B-29 element would receive a very different reception than happened over Kyushu on that hot summer day in 1945.

Lastly, what happen if/when the Reich doesn't fold (keeping in mind that this is a government that refused to surrender when there were 210mm howitzers being fired over open sights within a couple miles of Hitler's command bunker)? You have throw the haymaker and demonstrated to the Reich that they got the sums wrong and a Bomb is possible. They still have huge amount of partially processed uranium in their possession (the U.S. seized 1,100 tons in 1945 and the Soviets grabbed another 100 tons), they now KNOW that a weapon is possible, and they still have a host of very clever scientists. Worse, what if the Bomb itself fell into their hands? B-29s did have some noteworthy mechanical issue, even if the weapon itself is no longer usable the design is still there to be reconstructed.
 

jahenders

Banned
I don't agree with some of the responses that this implies a "Germany reins supreme" mindset.

You could certainly have a scenario where the Germans do better in the East, possibly getting a bit further and/or doing more damage to Russian forces in 1941/42 and then the Russians do worse in rebuilding and pushing the Germans back. By 1944, you could have the Germans being pushed back by the Russians, but not nearly as fast and at greater Russian cost. So, by 1945, the Russians have only gotten as far as, say, central Poland AND the Germans haven't had to pull as much away from France so the Wallies are going slower there.

In THAT kind of scenario, US atom bombs in mid 1945 are dropped on major German cities/industrial areas. These might not necessarily lead to surrender, but would certainly impact German war efforts and morale [NOTE: If the US manages to take out Hitler, then someone's going to sue for peace]. If that's not enough, the allies keep pushing and the US rushes development of more bombs. The war ends a bit later and, perhaps, with the dividing line a little farther East (depending on agreements).

Yes, in theory the dropping of the bombs on Germany might re-awaken German A-bomb ideas, but there's no way they can develop any in time (nor deliver anything substantial).

I'm looking for recommendations on any TLs where Nukes are used in Europe as part of an effort to force the Third Reich to surrender in 1945/1946. Presumably iTTL, either the Soviets have surrendered or are doing *significant* worse than OTL without having Surrendered.

(So somewhere between OTL and the Anglo-American/Nazi War)

Suggestions?
 
Assuming the Nazis achieved a "settlement" with the USSR in 1942 (a 1941 Soviet fold is a little too far) with a dividing line somewhere around the Urals or somewhat west of there. They will still need to devote substantial resources in the east. This includes "ordinary" occupation/policing duties, dealing with partisans, setting up death camps and managing massive deportations either to death camp or work camps, and rebuilding infrastructure so that they can use resources in the newly acquired territories. Rebuilding includes bridges, regauging Soviet RRs to European gauge so that the Reichsbahn can efficiently move goods, rebuilding the oil infrastructure etc. The rebuilding can't be ignored because if not done the resources can't be utilized.

OTL the rebuilding of the USSR, even with Lend-Lease and taking resources from occupied countries took quite some time. If you look at all the resources the Nazis used against the USSR 1942-45, I'd make a guess that this scenario gives them maybe 50% back over the 2 1/2 - 3 years. Less at the beginning more towards the end. Remember if they are not using steel for tanks to fight the Soviets, it may be going in to rails or bridge girders, petroleum used to run bulldozers if not aircraft and so forth.

My take on this is that TORCH goes on pretty much as planned, and more or less on schedule the Nazis are out of North Africa. It is possible HUSKY occurs, and if so rather than OVERLORD you see the Allies seize Sardinia and Corsica, and also Crete and some Aegean islands. These play to the Allied strengths. The U-boat war in the Atlantic lasts longer as the Germans have more resources to put there, but shifting to U-boats vs tanks takes time and the Allies have the long term advantage there.

In spring 1945 see the Germans still working to "integrate" the eastern territories, but supreme on the continent. The Allies have won the Battle of the Atlantic, although U-boats are still an issue, and are secure from Syria to Morocco (and all French Colonies/possessions not occupied by the Japanese) as well as Sicily,Sardinia, Corsica, Crete, and most/all Greek Islands. There is a bombing campaign over the continent, but much more peripheral and weaker. Given a stronger Atlantic Wall, stronger forces, a cross channel invasion is probably not possible. Norway? Greece? Possible but unlikely.

Can a bomb be dropped on a major German city? Probably at least once, massive raids elsewhere (at night) and a coastal city like Hamburg or Kiel the target. From there...

Even if on June 1, 1945 the Germans realize the bomb is possible with the attack on Hamburg, it will still take them 2-3 years to build one. The USSR had inside information, and willing to throw lots of resources that way beginning about the same time if not sooner, and it still took them until 1949. Given the situation here, the USA will be working even harder to mass produce and make more efficient/smaller these devices.
 

Cmyers1980

Banned
It doesn't prevent the former, the latter is a very different issue.

A Reich that is powerful enough to defeat the USSR (and for the country to be in the position depicted in this scenario, not facing invasion, much less not invaded already by late summer of 1945, the USSR has been defeated) is powerful enough to deal with the use of a couple devices. The 1st Gen bombs were't doomsday weapons, not compared to those that were available even five years later. They would destroy a city center quite effectively, and do so with admirable economy of force, but neither nuclear strike did the damage that the March 1945 B-29 Raid on Tokyo managed, and in terms of material damage they were not even that much more effective than any number of other B-29 strikes. They had a major psychological impact on the Japanese leadership when combined with the Soviet DoW, but even then there was considerable opposition to surrender.

Moreover a Reich that has dealt with the Soviets is in vastly better position to fight than Japan in August of 1945. It has access to oil, to food, to raw materials (not all that would be needed for the long term, rubber is a significant issue, just to name one asset, but compared to blockaded Japan it is a land of plenty). The Japanese had effectively given up on trying to stop U.S. photo and weather recon flights, by late 1945, they had mainly given up on even seriously interfering with the night bombing, they were husbanding assets for the invasion. The Reich never surrendered its skies, it had ever fewer aircraft, but it had AAA that the Japanese couldn't even dream of acquiring. With the huge pressure of fighting the Red Army removed the number of AAA batteries could explode, especially the 12.8cm FlaK 40 and the various flavors of the 8.8cm FlaK. There would also be far more fighters available, both day and night. The battle of attrition that was won by the WAllies in OTL by March of 1944 would very likely not be won by late summer of 1945. That 3 aircraft B-29 element would receive a very different reception than happened over Kyushu on that hot summer day in 1945.

Lastly, what happen if/when the Reich doesn't fold (keeping in mind that this is a government that refused to surrender when there were 210mm howitzers being fired over open sights within a couple miles of Hitler's command bunker)? You have throw the haymaker and demonstrated to the Reich that they got the sums wrong and a Bomb is possible. They still have huge amount of partially processed uranium in their possession (the U.S. seized 1,100 tons in 1945 and the Soviets grabbed another 100 tons), they now KNOW that a weapon is possible, and they still have a host of very clever scientists. Worse, what if the Bomb itself fell into their hands? B-29s did have some noteworthy mechanical issue, even if the weapon itself is no longer usable the design is still there to be reconstructed.

In the scenario you described above, if the Reich realizes that the atomic bomb is possible, how long do you think it would take for them to successfully build one of their own? 2 years? 4 years?
 
In the scenario you described above, if the Reich realizes that the atomic bomb is possible, how long do you think it would take for them to successfully build one of their own? 2 years? 4 years?

Decade at least, the Heavy Water Reactor they were planning on would have succeeded in making some German or Czech town known to history as Chernobyl is to us.
 
I think you are underestimating them.

They got nearly every bit of science wrong, starting with the critical mass.
2nd, unless they utilize most of their electrical grid, U-235 separation is out, so that leaves Plutonium, and their reactors were industrial accidents waiting to happen.
Screwing up with the contaminated graphite doomed their program
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Regardless of whether the Nazis can make a bomb before the war is over, I wonder about the speed of the Allied bomb build-up.

The Allies could end up having to use bombs as fast as they produce them, and "de-urbanize" Germany's northern tier of cities with 20 plus bombs if they can make that many.

The Germans will probably do a lot of shifting of populations and PoWs to at least complicate the politics of Allied targeting.
 
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