Nukes delayed a bit

WI US development of nukes is delayed a bit, a few months? Say trinity fails but scientists realise what's wrong and how to fix, however it will take time. How long could "Downfall" be postponed while waiting for nukes to become operational? If nukes are being delayed would invasion still happen, US commanders not willing to wait? If invasion happens (say roughly OTL timeframe) and nukes become available after invasion but before Japan surrenders does US use them?

How does this affect post-war situation?
 
It would depend on how long the delay was. If nukes were delayed for say 6 months, it would be too long to wait, and Downfall would go ahead. But if it were only a month or two, then the US might wait.

I don't think that the US would use nukes in the midst of the invasion. There would be too many troops in the vicinity for a nuclear attack to not affect them. Although if the invasion was going too badly, maybe the troops pull out and American nukes start leveling cities.

If nukes weren't used to end WW2, it would either greatly increase or greatly diminish the fear of nuclear weapons. Either the fear would be increased because people are afraid of the unknown or it would be diminished because people haven't seen how big a threat they are. Obviously the people would have seen the tests, but the horror really doesn't completely set in until nukes have been used on a population center.
 
Soviets try to take Hokkaido... Japan quite literally surrendered days before Stalin planned to invade. Stalin decided that invading after the nation had surrendered would push the Allies too far, so cancelled it.

It's really up in the air over whether the Red Army could successfully establish a beachhead. The Japanese had sent alot of their troops south to defend Honshu, the rest of their army was either stranded on various Pacific Islands the Allies had bypassed or had been overrun in Manchuria by the Red Army.

On the otherhand, Japanese forces on Hokkaido were still going to be much heavier then on Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands (which the Soviets had also taken via Amphibous Assaults) and the Soviets don't exactly have a great track record on Amphibous Warfare.

If the Soviets manage to secure a landing, though, Hokkaido will go under and it'll be Germany 2.0.

Also, the atom bomb might be used in tactical support. Just sayin.
 
Soviets try to take Hokkaido... Japan quite literally surrendered days before Stalin planned to invade. Stalin decided that invading after the nation had surrendered would push the Allies too far, so cancelled it.

It's really up in the air over whether the Red Army could successfully establish a beachhead. The Japanese had sent a lot of their troops south to defend Honshu, the rest of their army was either stranded on various Pacific Islands the Allies had bypassed or had been overrun in Manchuria by the Red Army.

On the other hand, Japanese forces on Hokkaido were still going to be much heavier then on Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands (which the Soviets had also taken via Amphibious Assaults) and the Soviets don't exactly have a great track record on Amphibious Warfare.

If the Soviets manage to secure a landing, though, Hokkaido will go under and it'll be Germany 2.0.

Also, the atom bomb might be used in tactical support. Just sayin.

Surely the Soviets didn't have the capacity to launch an invasion of the Japanese home islands? It would have required shipping of the order of D Day X2 at the very least, and the Soviets didn't have much of a navy, particularly in the far east.
 
Surely the Soviets didn't have the capacity to launch an invasion of the Japanese home islands? It would have required shipping of the order of D Day X2 at the very least, and the Soviets didn't have much of a navy, particularly in the far east.

Yes, yes they did have the capacity to do it. No, it would not have been D-Day X2 at the very least (that honor was reserved for Operation Olympic, the Allied Invasion of Kyushu).

The Soviets actually had a surprising amount of shipping capacity in Vladivostock. And naval power was a none-issue. Sure, the Soviet Pacific Fleet pretty much consisted of a bunch of obsolete destroyers and maybe a cruiser (I don't know that much about Soviet warships in the 40's), but the Japanese had perhaps a half-dozen aircraft they could throw at the Soviets (all the rest were waiting on Kyushu and lower Honshu to hurl themselves at the American Navy).

Notice I didn't mention the IJN? That's because all Japan could hope to field at sea by this point were submarines and suicide boats... none of which were in position for an invasion of Hokkaido and none of which could be moved there due to fuel concerns.

To reiterate, the Soviet's biggest concern will be to successfully establish a beachhead. If they can, then Hokkaido's a lost cause.
 
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