Nuclear-armed ABC nations

I believe Argentina had a nuclear weapons program until the Falklands War. No Falklands War could lead to the program lasting long enough to produce a weapon.
 
This is one of the easier ones!

Both Argentina and Brazil had nuclear weapons programs at one point. Argentina alleged started theirs up in the early 80s and dropped it shortly afterwards when the "National Reorganization Process" junta fell. Brazil's apparently began in the 70s, and dropped the matter in 1990 (a few years after enriching uranium to 20%, an important symbolic step in reaching weapons grade uranium).

There was, at the time, quite an arms race between the two of them, but that was put to rest in a 1991 treaty of mutual transparency.

And Chile apparently gave a large quantity of highly-enriched uranium to the US in early 2010 (probably in response to fears about containment after the giant quake)

Given that, I think that somehow keeping the junta in power for longer in Argentina could easily lead to an escalating nuclear arms race among the three...at least until the US decided that it really didn't like the idea of nuclear war in its back yard and stepped in somehow.
 
Nuclear nonproliferation actually worked pretty well for a while. Lots of nations that could trivially had the bomb, eg Canada, Sweden and Japan, never tried. Those that did try had to do so in great secrecy, which made it a lot harder.

If NPT failed earlier, e.g. Moscow gives nukes to its Arab clients, then Argentina and Brazil will likely continue, junta or no. Then if Argentina has one, Chile would have to.

OTL, i think the biggest gap in the dam was India, which meant Pakistan had to have it, which lead to many islamic countries getting help....
 
I could see one of them teaming up with Israel and South Africa to develop nukes. For obvious reasons only one of the ABC countries could be part of the alliance.
 
No Falklands War could lead to the program lasting long enough to produce a weapon.
It seems a reasonable plan, get a nuclear program and a few bombs first then go for the Falklands.

No way they could deliver them, but they might hope having the bomb would get Britain to think twice about retaking the islands.

If it would or not I don't know.
 
It seems a reasonable plan, get a nuclear program and a few bombs first then go for the Falklands.

No way they could deliver them, but they might hope having the bomb would get Britain to think twice about retaking the islands.

If it would or not I don't know.
Or it could persuade Britain to go nuclear.

Sounds like something stupid enough for the junta to try. And have blow up in their faces, perhaps literally.

Argentina making abomb threats would mean that any argentine naval vessel outside territorial waters gets sunk by torpedo. Imo.
 
Or it could persuade Britain to go nuclear.

Sounds like something stupid enough for the junta to try. And have blow up in their faces, perhaps literally.

Argentina making abomb threats would mean that any argentine naval vessel outside territorial waters gets sunk by torpedo. Imo.

Even if Argentina has nuclear weapons, they probably don't have any means to deliver them to Britain. So the worst they can do is try to use them against the British fleet, and that just makes things worse for them, because Britain has more and better nuclear weapons; even if it stays at a tactical level, there's just no way that can end well for Argentina. Or anyone, really, but especially the Argentineans.
 
Even if Argentina has nuclear weapons, they probably don't have any means to deliver them to Britain. So the worst they can do is try to use them against the British fleet, and that just makes things worse for them, because Britain has more and better nuclear weapons; even if it stays at a tactical level, there's just no way that can end well for Argentina. Or anyone, really, but especially the Argentineans.
They could plant a bomb in the Falklands and, when the British forces overrun its position, remotely detonate it as a final "fuck you" to Britain.
 
They could plant a bomb in the Falklands and, when the British forces overrun its position, remotely detonate it as a final "fuck you" to Britain.

And then what?

Britain has to respond. You can't let a nuclear attack go unanswered. The only acceptable answers would either be regime change - which Britain can't do - or nuclear retaliation. So something Argentinean gets nuked. Hopefully not a city, but no guarantees. Argentina can only lose harder by escalating to a nuclear level.

I'm not saying they wouldn't do it - people do stupid shit all the time, and I don't know enough about the Argentinean junta to say if they would be dumb enough to do this or not. But it would be a really, really bad idea.
 
And then what?

Britain has to respond. You can't let a nuclear attack go unanswered. The only acceptable answers would either be regime change - which Britain can't do - or nuclear retaliation. So something Argentinean gets nuked. Hopefully not a city, but no guarantees. Argentina can only lose harder by escalating to a nuclear level.

I'm not saying they wouldn't do it - people do stupid shit all the time, and I don't know enough about the Argentinean junta to say if they would be dumb enough to do this or not. But it would be a really, really bad idea.

Nuking puerto Belgrano, the main Argentine naval base would be possible. Or using a nuke tipped torpedo on the 25May task force, if its at sea and clustered enough.
 
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