Novgorod conquers Finland?

What if Novgorod had come out on top in its struggle with Sweden, and eventually annexed OTL southern Finland in the 13th century? (Moreover, is that even possible?)

How would an Orthodox, mixed Russian-Finnic state evolve? Could it survive and avoid being absorbed by Muscovy? Would it be an ethnically stratified society, with Russian upper classes and Finnic lower classes, or could there eventually be Finnish/Karelian nobles?
 
This is interesting, but I don't know enough to intelligently comment.

You might want to PM I Blame Communism, who's a hard-core Russophile.
 
This is interesting, but I don't know enough to intelligently comment.

You might want to PM I Blame Communism, who's a hard-core Russophile.

My knowledge starts to thin out rapidly when we get pre-Petrine, I'm afraid. However, from my (markedly inadequate) knowledge, I'd guess that Finland might develop along the lines of Ingria, which was also mostly inhabited by Orthodox Finnic-speaking peoples at the time (after all, I believe that the Finns are essentially those members of the Finnic spectrum to come under Swedish rule, with those who came under German rule becoming Estonians and those under Novgorod rule a variety of small tribes that persist to this day). That is to say, Orthodoxy spreading to the local population, a few Russian trading settlements, and most of the population speaking their local dialects.

I don't think Novgorod having Finland would really change the disparity between the expansive agrarian feudal states in the middle - *Muscovy - and the northern trading states enough to avoid the OTL outcome, unless of course you shake things up altogether and have the Lithuanians conquer a lot more, for instance.

Also, the Swedes will still settle along the Bothnian coast, I think. They did OTL, straining the terms of their treaties with Novgorod. It's just much closer to the Swedish centre of power.
 
There were local *finnic nobility who sided with Novgorod over those who sided with Sweden...and they raided each other pretty mercilessly, across hundreds of kilometres.

Control was mostly achieved through building fortresses, and to do that you need to secure supply lines. Can Novgorod do it? I think it could if it had some really dedicated leadership.

As for the survival of a Finnish Orthodox society - it depends on how close to core Russian settlements they would be considered to be; compare the Komi to the Izhora. If Novgorod builds the fortresses but otherwise leaves the locals alone to only pay tribute, it's one thing. If the Novgorodians have to keep getting involved because of Sweden over and over, they may be subject to Russian military settlements and Russian elites establishing direct control.

All in all, Sweden has an advantage. Novgorod is richer, but Sweden is ruled by kings or large landowners who can more or less pursue a consistent policy. Meanwhile Novgorod has an elected government and an ad-hoc army.
 
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