November 2nd 1912 Woodrow Wilson's death in train derailment

[33k7]

the last picture of Woodrow Wilson doing a small stop in Pennsylvania 5:05 p.m. November 1st 1912

Wilson and Marshall wanted to do some last-minute campaigning in the midwest but put it on hold until late October after the attempted assassination of Roosevelt but put a stop to it again after the death of Vice President James Sherman on October 30th 1912 at this point Wilson gave up on campaigning and decided to just head home via train from Ohio.

As the train carrying him made its way through Pennsylvania it derailed sometime around 2:00 a.m. in the morning November 2nd 1912 Wilson would emerge from the train under his own power but due to an unseen injury would die from internal bleeding at around 10:46 a.m.

by November 3 most of the nation we're hearing of the democratic nominees death. causing somewhat of a crisis in the election there was no way to change the ballots that had already been distributed. This just cause Mass confusion in the election. even with his passing Wilson would win nine states which gave him 103 electoral votes and would receive nearly 4 million votes in the election. Roosevelt and Taft would not secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency outright and it went to the Congress.

 

[dcharles]

What makes you think Georgia, where Taft only got 5% OTL, is going to swing R?

 

[33k7]

121,417 people voted in Georgia in 1912 you can probably see that drop substantially a lot of people will just feel defeated a lot of people will vote for Taft just to undermine Roosevelt who will be seen as the clear front-runner after Wilson's death Roosevelt doesn't have a chance the progressive vote in Georgia is rather low best case scenario for him 21,000 votes

Wilson might receive 40,000 + votes

but if Taft achieves what he achieved in 1908 he wins 41,000 votes

 

[dcharles]

121,417 people voted in Georgia in 1912 you can probably see that drop substantially a lot of people will just feel defeated a lot of people will vote for Taft just to undermine Roosevelt who will be seen as the clear front-runner after Wilson's death Roosevelt doesn't have a chance the progressive vote in Georgia is rather low best case scenario for him 21,000 votes

Wilson might receive 40,000 + votes

but if Taft achieves what he achieved in 1908 he wins 41,000 votes

I'm pretty skeptical. Lots of dead men have won elections. To most Georgian voters in 1912, a placeholder Democrat would have been strongly preferential to Taft. I wouldn't be surprised to see Roosevelt poll double his OTL vote share though.

 

[Mikestone8]

Didn't most people just vote straight party tickets in those days?

If so, Marshall* probably gets much the same vote as Wilson got OTL - perhaps more due to a "sympathy" vote - and the Democratic Electors just have to vote for someone as Marshall's VP.

*It would be far too late for the DNC to seriously consider anyone else. They would have to accept him as Wilson's successor, same as if the latter had died *after* the election.

 

[33k7]

Didn't most people just vote straight party tickets in those days?

If so, Marshall* probably gets much the same vote as Wilson got OTL - perhaps more due to a "sympathy" vote - and the Democratic Electors just have to vote for someone as Marshall's VP.

*It would be far too late for the DNC to seriously consider anyone else. They would have to accept him as Wilson's successor, same as if the latter had died *after* the election.

you would think that but you have to remember Roosevelt was shot and Taft s vice president had died so the sympathy vote was kind of spread out.

people didn't just vote straight party ticket. this election is proof of this many progressives voted for Wilson because he was more forceful on Progressive causes most of the West and the Northeast was pretty fluid on who they voted for this election is a case in point. the only place that might vote straight party ticket would be the South

 

[dcharles]

Didn't most people just vote straight party tickets in those days?

They literally did. The secret ballot was hardly universal in 1912.

 

[Mikestone8]

people didn't just vote straight party ticket. this election is proof of this many progressives voted for Wilson because he was more forceful on Progressive causes most of the West and the Northeast was pretty fluid on who they voted for this election is a case in point. the only place that might vote straight party ticket would be the South

They certainly did in 1 916, with TR out of the race, but did they do so in 1912 at Presidential level? Given that Wilson's popular was lower than Bryan's had been in 1908, this would seem unlikely.

Nor does TR seem to have had much appeal to Democrats. When population growth is allowed for, his 1904 vote differed little from McKinley's in 1900. His electoral landslide was due to Democratic abstention, faced with a nominee tooo observative for their tastes. They seem to have viewed TR as just another Republicans.

Progressive Republicans might switch to a Democrat, but Bryan Democrats seem to have been less willing to switch the other way.

 

[Mikestone8]

I'm pretty skeptical. Lots of dead men have won elections. To most Georgian voters in 1912, a placeholder Democrat would have been strongly preferential to Taft. I wouldn't be surprised to see Roosevelt poll double his OTL vote share though.

Indeed. Georgians had voted three times for Bryan, but also for the conservative Parker. They would want a Democrat and wouldn't be too fussed as to which Democrat. And presumably the newspapers would have explained that a vote for the late Wilson would now count as a vote for Marshall.

 

[Mikestone8]

121,417 people voted in Georgia in 1912 you can probably see that drop substantially a lot of people will just feel defeated a lot of people will vote for Taft just to undermine Roosevelt who will be seen as the clear front-runner after Wilson's death Roosevelt doesn't have a chance the progressive vote in Georgia is rather low best case scenario for him 21,000 votes

Wilson might receive 40,000 + votes

but if Taft achieves what he achieved in 1908 he wins 41,000 votes

Why should TR's vote rise? Wilson's death would be a shock, but no reason for anybody to switch to a Republican. Nor is there any reason to suppose that Marshall would be unpopular down South, or indeed anywhere else.

Nor is there the slightest reason to think that Marshall, a very partisan Democrat, would even consider running as VP to *any* Republican. Those options are just plain silly.

 

[Mikestone8]

you would think that but you have to remember Roosevelt was shot and Taft s vice president had died so the sympathy vote was kind of spread out.

But timing is all. Wilson's death means that all eyes are on the Democratic National Committee as it meets to choose its new candidates for POTUS (almost certainly Marshall, unopposed) and VP. So in the last week of campaigning both Taft and TR have been driven off the front page. That's the kind of media attention money can't buy.

 

[Mikestone8]

More generally, doesn't that poll require at least one more option, ie "another Democrat" or "None of the above", given that all the options given are *very* low probability and the last two are downright ASB.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

In this scenario Marshall is not eligible for VP because he was third and the Senate selects from the first 2 candidates, I assume the majority D's will vote for TR's VP. I suspect the SCOTUS may have to get involved in the House POTUS selection. Is Marshall eligible for the House vote as a replacement for Wilson? Constitutionally I would think not but that probably requires a SCOTUS ruling. If Wilson is the third legal candidate then the majority D's are in a pickle since if they elect Wilson the Presidency is vacant and the VP becomes POTUS and Marshall cannot be the VP.

 

[Nivek]

If wilson dies before the election..

 

[Mikestone8]

In this scenario Marshall is not eligible for VP because he was third and the Senate selects from the first 2 candidates, I assume the majority D's will vote for TR's VP. I suspect the SCOTUS may have to get involved in the House POTUS selection. Is Marshall eligible for the House vote as a replacement for Wilson? Constitutionally I would think not but that probably requires a SCOTUS ruling. If Wilson is the third legal candidate then the majority D's are in a pickle since if they elect Wilson the Presidency is vacant and the VP becomes POTUS and Marshall cannot be the VP.

Sorry, don't follow.

If, as is virtually certain, Marshall has replaces the late Wilson a the Democratic *Presidential* candidate, then the DNC will have nominated someone else for the second spot. And since the Republican vote is still split between Taft and TR (Wilson's death will change nothing on that point) they are still certain to have a massive Electoral Collège majority, so neither House nor Senate will have any role beyond the formal counting of the electoral votes.

Keep in mind that a vote for Wilson is still perfectly valid since it is in reality a vote for his Presidential Electors, *not* for him personally. You may rest assured that Democratic officials at polling stations will take care to explain this to their voters. Obviously, with his death *they* will have to choose someone else, but no way will they vote for any Republican. . And Democratic *voters* will have no particular reason to reject Marshall, who is not a particularly controversial figure.

Sorry again, but the map in the OP is ASB.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

I was merely responding to the OP and its map as a what if scenario by bringing up the relevant clauses of the 12th Amendment. I agree that the map and scenario are VERY implausible, but this scenario is interesting because both a Presidential candidate and a VP candidate have died before the election. On further review I am certain that the D electors will cast their electoral votes for Marshall and can do what they want with their votes for VP since only the top 2 are eligible for the Senate contingent election. Therefore forget the SCOTUS, Marshall is in third place and eligible in the contingent election. I know that the D'd control the House but I do not know the state by state counts since the contingent election is by state. Assuming the D's do have control of 25+ delegations Marshall is POTUS. The existing Senate (1910) was R controlled so the choice is between Progressive VP candidate Hiram Johnson, who was disliked by many regular R's, and whomever the RNC chose as VP Sherman's replacement. I suspect a coalition of Democrats and progressive Republicans would elect Johnson giving us Marshall and Johnson as POTUS and VPOTUS. It gets more interesting if Wilson dies between the Electoral College meeting and the counting of the votes. Then we get into the definition of candidate for the contingent election, since the D electors voted for Wilson, not Marshall. Hello SCOTUS. And I smell the scent of a Constitutional Amendment to replace the 12th. Hello Butterflies.

 

[Mikestone8]

I suspect a coalition of Democrats and progressive Republicans would elect Johnson

Alternatively, the Democratic Senators could absent themselves, leaving the Republicans without the two thirds of the Senate which is the quorum required for electing a VP. In this way they could hold up business through March 4, until the new, and Democratic, Senate could convene.

whomever the RNC chose as VP Sherman's replacement

OTL it was some chap called Nicholas Murray Butler.

Then we get into the definition of candidate for the contingent election, since the D electors voted for Wilson, not Marshall. Hello SCOTUS. And I smell the scent of a Constitutional Amendment to replace the 12th. Hello Butterflies.

Not as bad as that.

The States would send in their votes for counting. Under the rules than in place (they had been changed after the 1876 election) a vote could be rejected only if both Houses agreed to do so. The Republicans might try to reject the votes for a dead man, but the Democratic HoR would not concur. So Wilson and Marshall would be declared the winners, and on March 4 Taft's term would end, and VP Marshall would succeed to the vacant Presidency. In this case he Vice-Presidency would become vacant, so the first order of business would be to get a Secretary of State confirmed.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Marshall would become president. Either the electors would vote for Wilson for POTUS and Marshall for VP or they vote for Marshall for POTUS.

 

[DougM]

What does the LAW saw back then?
We are. Talking days before the election. I doubt you can get anyone knew nominated and on the ballot that fast. And you sure can’t get the election devices/materials revised that fast.
So in effect you have eliminated the Democrat Presidential candidate. All 48 states had their own laws about how to get a candidate on the ballot and just because the Democrats change candidates at the last minute does mot mean the new candidate auto gets on the ballot in most states I believe.
So unless someone finds a major loophole to suspend the election or the laws in many states differed drastically back then you have basically narrowed the field.
If I recall back then each party nominated a presidential and vice presidential candidates that ran as a ticket so you can’t just swap them up.
So this will get interesting. Assuming those that voted Democrat still do then the Electoral Collage has an interesting dilemma. Do the elect a Dead. Man by casting their votes as the state they are from voted or do the cast their vote towards a living candidate.
Opt 1). The elect a dead man and he is immediately replaced by the VP (but this is not automatically what will happen in 1912 as the secession was not spelled out specifically until the 25th amendment in the 60s. So if the vote for a dead man they (the Electoral Collage) are turning over their one and only job to Congress. So frankly I can’t see this happening.
Opt 2) they vote for a living candidate. This is I believe the mostly likely outcome. Ands being as they (the electoral college) is SUPPOSED to more ore less follow what is voted on by the people unless circumstances radically alter the situationI suspect they will vote for one of the living presidential candidates. Yes circumstances are radically different in that the Democratic candidate is dead, But his opponents are still alive and all legal to hold the office so they have ABSOLUTELY NO reason to not elect one of them. Wilson earned IOTL 43% vs 27% and 23% so he did better but not so much better that so you can’t just ignore them
Now we add in that Rosevelt won 5 stats for 88 elector votes and Taft won only 2 for 8 electors and this looks like when the remaining electors cast there vote the odds are Rosevelt will win.
The logic of this is as follows
of the three big candidates the one with the most states won is dead so the electoral college has to choose someone else and Back then I don’t think that the VP is a legal candidate.
and of the remaining two TR has the most popular votes and ther most electoral votes that he actually won.

BTW congress has NOTHING to do with this unless the Electoral collage basically abdicates its very reason for existing. It exists for this very purpose to handle situations that may occur after the election but before the candidate is inaugurated or as a safeguard in case something happens so close to the election that the result can not be taken into account for the election itself. And this is EXACTLY what we have here. Wilson died so closer to the election that he can’t be replaced by anyone else. So the electoral college is required to step in. And at this point they only have two real options Taft or Teddy and Teddy did better than Taft. And No the electoral college is not voting in a dead guy and handing the whole thing to Congress.
This is not today where the VP is assumed to be the automatic successor of the president. Heck even with todays laws of succession I am not sure how this would play out.

Either way this is perhaps the Brest thing to happen to the. US. As Wilson was the worst thing to happen to the US as far as Presidents go. He ultimately got us into WW1 anyway but did it so late that we had little impact. He was a massive racist and is arguably the biggest cause of the Federal segregation, manu of those policies being put in place under his watch or only realky taking off under his watch. And he also was a huge supporter of racism and was a contributing factor to the rise of the KKK in the 20th century.
Add in the policies he put in place and enforced during WW1 that are directly violating the Constitution and he probably did more to set the US back as far as liberties and Race relations go then any other president including those that actually owned slaves.
And the US can’t help but be better off without the racist power mad tyrant.
Oh and let’s not forget that year or so where he was basically incapable of doing his job running the country and someone else was probably making all the decisions.

So in any event no matter whom is selected/elected the end result is better for the US in general and race relations and the constitution specifically.

 

[Mikestone8]

Wilson died so closer to the election that he can’t be replaced by anyone else. So the electoral college is required to step in. And at this point they only have two real options Taft or Teddy

Not true. Constitutionally, Electors can vote for whom they please, and are not limited to those persons whose names were on the ballot.

Also, these Electors won't cast their votes until 13 January 1913, so there's plenty of time for the Democratic National Committee to instruct them as to how they should vote. They might not all obey, but I'm pretty sure the vast majority would.