alternatehistory.com

Here is a scenario inspired by Riain’s TBD thread.


POD# One is on November 1, 1940.

On 1/1/40, the U.S. undergoes an epiphany, realizing that it is virtually certain to be at war within a year, probably with both the Reich and Japan. Weapons production, not just procurement, but actual production, is literally pushed forward by a year across the board for everything from G.I socks to 16”/50 Gun tubes and everything in between. The change doesn’t really have any impact on the other Pacific combatants, since they are already at war, but Stalin does order changes in production for weapons in his factories as well.

This results in the F4U Corsair reaching squadron Service with the Marine Corps in July of 1941, The TBF Avenger torpedo bomber making it to the fleet in squadron quantity by August 1941, the P-38 Lightning in fall of 1940, P-47 Thunderbolts in June of 1941, and so on. The same occurs for other weapons, from Garands (with Winchester receiving it’s contract for 65,000 rifles in December of 1940, just after the rifle’s teething problems are resolved, rather than in December 1941) to carriers and battleship, where dockyard put on second, or even third shifts 13 months in advance. (It is important to note that the dates of entering service for each aircraft simply reflect an increased rate of production, not a miracle of ironing out problems months or years earlier, frex: the F4U is still not carrier qualifed due to landing gear issues)

Construction contracts are also accelerated for defensive works in the Philippines, on Guam, Wake, Midway, etc.

This results in the following changes:

1) The USMC is fully equipped with Garands at the outbreak of the war.

2) 60% of the water cooled M2 .50 cal machine guns are replaced by their air-cooled cousins.

3) On December 7, 1941 the AAF aircraft on Oahu are as follows:
a. 12 P-36 Mohawks (replacing the P-26 IOTL)
b. 41 P-40C Kittyhawks (“ “ P-36 “”)
c. 97 P-38E Lightnings (‘ “ P-40B “)
d. 11 P-47B (“ “ P-40C “)
e. 33 B-17D (“ “ B-18 “)
f. 12 B-17E (“ “ B-17D)
g. 13 A-20C Havoc (the version equipped to carry torpedoes externally) “ “ B-20A “)

4) Wake’s defensive upgrade are complete. Full squadron of 24 F4U on Island (half having arrived previous day off USS Enterprise). Full USMC coastal defense battalion (900 men) is assigned to Island and in place. Midway is expecting 12 F4U from USS Lexington on Sunday morning

5) Guam is now defended by 2nd Marine division, including light battalion of Sherman tanks. Two VMF Squadrons of F4U make up air defenses with squadron of VMB SBD for scouting.

6) Philippines Defenses have been upgraded to that expected by November 1, 1942 both in fortifications and in manpower. Additional two divisions of regular U.S. Army troops, including two regiments of Sherman tanks are in Bataan area. Munitions & food supplies are as planned (sufficient for what was believed to be six months combat, in actuality the munitions are sufficient for roughly 90 days high intensity warfare). Changes in Philippine air wings are the same as planned for March 1942 with the same upgrade as at Pearl Harbor (48 P-40C, 172 P-38E, 24 P-47B, 36 B-17D, 144 B-17E)

This sets the stage for POD # Two.

The late November War Warning messages to General Short and Admiral Kimmel as interpreted as Washington had expected. Short still follows the exhortation not to alarm civilians, so AAA guns are not deployed onto private property outside of the base, but the 31 emplacements within the perimeter are partly manned with ammunition stored in ready boxes. Aircraft are dispersed to secondary fields and in revetments when provided. A total of 24 fighters are flying dawn patrol each morning (eight flights of four) with an additional 24 ready for takeoff (fueled, armed, warmed up) at Wheeler Field, 12 at Bellows and 8 at Haleiwa, or roughly 1/3 of assigned strength. One of four ships in the harbor has “ready” condition set for AAA batteries, with other vessels having AAA ammo in ready lockers. PBY aircraft are also flying 360 degree patrols along with some army bombers.

Last POD (# 3)

USS Ward report of sinking enemy submarine at 06:34 hrs is accepted as genuine, resulting full alert.

Question 1 – What is the result of the Kido Butai attack under these circumstances

Question 2 – Does Wake still fall? Guam?

Question 3 – What happens in the Philippines? (This probably the hardest to predict thanks to MacArthur’s presence)

Question 4 – Where does the war go for February 1942 onward?

Opinions? Condemnations? Answers?
Top