"Not Western, Not Eastern" An Alt-Iranian Revolution and Beyond TL

Another thing is before 79, Israel and the Shah's Iran in fact had close military and intelligence ties. Israel and Iran would continue to maintain their good working relationship with Iran not going off the deep end. (More so if Iraq send big reinforcements to Syria. And so Iran can beat the Hades out of Iraq.)

See, I'm not so sure about that. Solidarity with the Palestinian national liberation movement was nearly universal across the Iranian political spectrum at this time, from Bazargan's Islamic democratic FMI to the secular communists of Tudeh and Fadaiyan-e-Khalq. The only group who might have held the Palestinians with antipathy were perhaps the most anti-Islam/anti-Arab of the westernized elite, who were already deeply associated with the Shah (hell, even the Shah cut Arafat a check for 100K in 1969) and are unlikely to have much influence on Iranian foreign policy in the post-revolutionary aftermath, at least for a while. I also think that from a matter of political opportunism and expedience, this alternate post-revolutionary government may project anti-American sentiment onto Israel, so as to lessen the severity of diplomatic fallout that would occur between Iran and the U.S. But right now, it's all still up in the air.

Going back to the 1980, Carter is going to lose re-election regardless as mention before, but what you could do is not have Reagan as the GOP candidate. You could have Howard Baker, Edward Brooke, Charles Percy, John Anderson, Bob Dole, Elliot Richardson, Charles Mathias, and maybe John Danforth running. ( Brooke would be a bold choice for the GOP in 1980, an African-American GOP ex-Senator.)

65% chance Carter is still gonna lose the 1980 election. The rise in global crude prices that occurred in 1979 and 1980 will still happen, that means Carter by virtue of being president is going to inherit at least partially the blame for that. As for the Republican primary, I'll have to read into that some more but I don't want a dozen of random PODs flying about, just the butterflies directly resulting from Khomeini's assassination.

The same here. My deepest feelings to the people of Iran and the victims.

Thank you. Just seeing the picture of a 60-something year old wheelchair-bound veteran dead and drenched in his own blood from the attack, nearly made my heart drop.
 
See, I'm not so sure about that. Solidarity with the Palestinian national liberation movement was nearly universal across the Iranian political spectrum at this time, from Bazargan's Islamic democratic FMI to the secular communists of Tudeh and Fadaiyan-e-Khalq. The only group who might have held the Palestinians with antipathy were perhaps the most anti-Islam/anti-Arab of the westernized elite, who were already deeply associated with the Shah (hell, even the Shah cut Arafat a check for 100K in 1969) and are unlikely to have much influence on Iranian foreign policy in the post-revolutionary aftermath, at least for a while. I also think that from a matter of political opportunism and expedience, this alternate post-revolutionary government may project anti-American sentiment onto Israel, so as to lessen the severity of diplomatic fallout that would occur between Iran and the U.S. But right now, it's all still up in the air.



65% chance Carter is still gonna lose the 1980 election. The rise in global crude prices that occurred in 1979 and 1980 will still happen, that means Carter by virtue of being president is going to inherit at least partially the blame for that. As for the Republican primary, I'll have to read into that some more but I don't want a dozen of random PODs flying about, just the butterflies directly resulting from Khomeini's assassination.



Thank you. Just seeing the picture of a 60-something year old wheelchair-bound veteran dead and drenched in his own blood from the attack, nearly made my heart drop.

There would be hostility for a while but afterwards I can see the new Iran that will will push for stronger diplomatic ties. The new Iran would be a fool not to keep the relations it has with Israel, more so to block Iraq. They'd both be threatened by Saddam's Iraq and Assad's Syria after all.

I understand. It may just be the case the 1980 election goes more, or less OTL, and it may just be easier to do that. (As said, 76 was a curse to anyone who won it. The 80s will be a GOP era no matter how you play it.)

Here here.
 
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The Death of an Ayatollah
September 20, 1978
Najaf, Iraq

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Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini began his day as always, with a morning prayer at the crack of dawn followed by a brief recitation of passages from the Qur'an most illuminating to him at that moment. His breakfast was as modest as the house he was residing at, half of an onion, five pieces of garlic, a small bowl of yogurt with shredded cucumbers, and a pitcher of water to drown it down. Khomeini's surviving son, Ahmad, was with him in exile, helping him publish his denunciations of the Shah and passed Iraqi agents trying to censor the Ayatollah's speeches. Khomeini's first born son, Mostafa, died a year prior, in what could only be described as the most suspicious of circumstances, while meeting with a group of Iranians in Najaf and later found dead of an apparent heart attack. His death was coupled with the death of noted Iranian dissident and Islamic socialist Ali Shariati, who also died from an apparent heart attack at his exiled estate in Britain. Noted for his ideas of "Red Shi'ism" as a revolutionary and egalitarian alternative to so-called "Black Shi'ism" which he associated with reactionary quietism and acquiescence to Shahist autocracy, Shariati had more than earned the antipathy of the Pahlavi regime, and so his death was equally attributed to the foul play of SAVAK, the Shah's feared repressive security-state apparatus responsible for the torture and disappearance of thousands of Iranian dissidents. If ever there was something to happen to the elder Khomeini, most Iranians could be assured that SAVAK had a hand in it.

Ruhollah and Ahmad were discussing the latest protests in Tehran when they were interrupted by a confidant panting for breath. "The Iraqis are coming for us", he cried. "I have news from an informant in the Iraqi secret service that Saddam talked to the Shah about you Imam. The Shah wants you dead". The elder Khomeini took the information in for a few seconds, and then emitted laughter. "Well alright, he wants me dead, what else is new"? The confidant countered, "but this is different, Saddam offered to have you killed, and the Shah accepted". The mood suddenly turned grim. Ahmad Khomeini entered the conversation, "father, he's right, we have to leave this place. We cannot achieve our vision of a revived Ummah without your leadership". The elder Khomeini nodded in agreement and stood up. "Where are we to go? Perhaps to Syria, where Hafez al-Assad has broken ties his with Saddam"? "I think it's our only option", the confidant replies. "I'll start the car", the confidant says, fearing the possibility of a car bomb having been planted on Khomeini's vehicle. The three men leave Najaf and drive north for roughly forty miles, coming up on the outskirts of Karbala before they find out they are tailed by a black Lincoln Continental. "Shit, it's them" screamed the confidant, but Khomeini remains calm, reminded of the martyrdom of righteous Imam Hussein against the forces of the corrupt Yazid on the same site of Karbala 1300 years ago. If this is how fate has destined his life to end, then so be it he thought. The black Continental catches up and intersects Khomeini's old car, stopping it in the middle of the road.

The events that exactly occurred are disputed among historians, but it's believed that an armed standoff ensued between the outmatched confidant armed only with a pistol and two other men believed to be part of the Republican Guard. What followed was the gunning down of the confidant in the side of the road while Ruhollah and Ahmad were shot sitting inside the car, with the two other men disappearing never to be uncovered. While the scene of the crime was far from cinematic, the symbolism and emotional weight behind it truly was. Even someone with a cursory understanding of Shi'a Islam and its relation to Iranian politics could sense the magnitude behind this event, carried out less than five miles from Karbala. The Iraqi and Iranian government immediately denounced the action and claimed no responsibility whatsoever for the "horrendous and vile crimes against a man of god". The tone towards the late Khomeini was clearly different from the screeds published earlier that year in the Iranian state-owned daily newspaper Ettela'at, of Khomeini being a British agent, but the damage had already been done. The day following the announcement of the Ayatollah Ruhollah and Ahmad Khomeini's deaths, nearly 800,000 people protested on the streets of Tehran, most chanting things like "Saddam pulled the trigger, but the Shah ordered it!" or "the Shah is the new Yazid". At one point demonstrators stormed the Iraqi consulate, killing some staff, before Iranian soldiers opened fire and shot dead possibly 50 to 500 of the demonstrators.

A few miles away at Sa'dabad Complex, the Shah's palace and seat of government, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was looking more despondent than he ever had been. Speaking solemnly with the recently appointed Prime Minister Jafar Sharif-Emami, who advised the Shah for the first time of abdicating the throne to the young crown prince Reza Pahlavi, the Shah quietly asks, "Could it be that for nearly forty years, I've tried to do everything I thought was right for the nation. And for nearly forty years, it has all been a mistake"? Prime Minister Jafar answers, "Yes sir, you've been wrong".

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The fate of the monarchy is still up in the air for now. But what I will say is that any currency the Shah still had with the more quietist elements of the Shi’a ulema, people like Grand Ayatollah Shariatmadari who early during the revolution pleaded with the Shah to accept democratization reforms under the framework of the 1906 Iranian constitution, is fast diminishing following the assassination of Khomeini. Even if Shariatmadri disagreed with Khomeini’s conception of the Veleyat-e faqih, it was he who intervened to prevent his execution following the 1963 anti-Shah demonstrations.
 
Now this is something different as a TL. In hopes of a ripping good yarn and learning something about Iran, I shall follow this.
 
If the Shah abdicates let's hope the New Shah can hold onto power.

i don’t think he will have time to thei because look like a another revolution is coming and this time it could go democratic or Islamic

The fate of the monarchy is still up in the air for now. But what I will say is that any currency the Shah still had with the more quietist elements of the Shi’a ulema, people like Grand Ayatollah Shariatmadari who early during the revolution pleaded with the Shah to accept democratization reforms under the framework of the 1906 Iranian constitution, is fast diminishing following the assassination of Khomeini. Even if Shariatmadri disagreed with Khomeini’s conception of the Veleyat-e faqih, it was he who intervened to prevent his execution following the 1963 anti-Shah demonstrations.

There is really nothing to save the monarchy at thus point.

At this point? 1978? All of Iran has seen the Shah and he is the emperor with no clothes. No one going to be following his orders soon enough.
 
The best thing for Iran now is for it to become a liberal democratic republic instead of a theocracy. You know, like it was before the US forced the Shah upon them with a coup because they elected a socialist. The Iraq War wasn't the first time that petroleum interests influenced US policy in the Middle East.
 
The best thing for Iran now is for it to become a liberal democratic republic instead of a theocracy. You know, like it was before the US forced the Shah upon them with a coup because they elected a socialist. The Iraq War wasn't the first time that petroleum interests influenced US policy in the Middle East.
Iran was never a republic prior to 1979.
 
It should also be noted that even Mossadegh himself was never really a supporter of a republican form of government. He saw the Khan's - uhh, I mean "Pahlavi's", as uncouth usurpers to the ostensibly rightful reign of the Qajars. Much of early and middle 20th century Iranian political development was preoccupied with ideas of constitutionalism with a monarchy, whose legitimacy would nominally be derived from god, but god's will would be expressed through popular democratic sovereignty. However, by 1975 any last pretense of the Pahlavi regime adhering to these ideas dissipated with the disillusion of the two-party parliamentary system (of which the Majles had already been reduced to little more than a rubber stamp institution following 1953) and the formation of the Rastakhiz Party, with Iran adopting that most curious of political systems: a single-party absolute monarchy.

I would say one of the biggest failures of the National Front in the lead-up to and during the revolution, and as late as the Autumn of 1978, was its inability to divorce its ideas of liberal democratic constitutionalism from the institution of the monarchy, which throughout the entirety of the Pahlavi dynasty with the brief exception of a parliamentary revival from 1946 to 1953, had been based on absolutist autocracy and a brutal arrogance in the face of milquetoast demands for reform. The National Front had intellectually and politically atrophied to the point where it was now overshadowed by more radical left-wing and Islamists groups.
 
Palavhi senior was going to create a republic in the 30’s, Kemal ataturk advised him not to.

The westernized elements of Iranian society are in the right position to create a western-style liberal democracy in Iran without either the Shah or the Ayatollah to stand in their way.
 
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