Not to Brazil

In 1807 the French marched against Portugal. King John VI and the royal family fled Lisbon in 1807 and arrived in Brazil in 1808.
Suppose Brazil was not under Portuguese dominion.
What country would the Portuguese royal family go to?
 
Guinazacity, Thank you for mentioning about the United Kingdom of Portugal. Would King John VI's stay in Angola be similar to that of Brazil where Angola would eventually become an empire?

No way.Angola isn't a settler colony,so most people there are Africans.I don't see them receiving any rights.It's just too far off into the future.
 
I imagine it would either be Ponta Delgada in the Azores (largest town in the Atlantic archipelagos circa 1807), or the court would just move to London in exile.
 

guinazacity

Banned
No way.Angola isn't a settler colony,so most people there are Africans.I don't see them receiving any rights.It's just too far off into the future.


Definitely, they lacked the settlers, the population and the whole structure necessary for being the capital
 
why isn't Brazil under Portuguese control? did their possession get butterflied away? or did it get taken away, and if so, how long ago?
If they never had, or lost Brazil early, Portugal would have alternatively put the Brazil settler energy into a different colony. If none of their OTL other colony's were suitable, with an early enough POD they probably would have looked to finding an alternative colony (the kingdom of south africa/angola/mozambique/zambia/zimbabwe/malawi anyone? whites living initially in SA, then spreading out, taking the entire lower half of africa. Or maybe they develop/hold on to their India holdings). Without the gold riches of Brazil, Portugal may well have withered into nothingness taken over by Spain.
 
why isn't Brazil under Portuguese control? did their possession get butterflied away? or did it get taken away, and if so, how long ago?
If they never had, or lost Brazil early, Portugal would have alternatively put the Brazil settler energy into a different colony. If none of their OTL other colony's were suitable, with an early enough POD they probably would have looked to finding an alternative colony (the kingdom of south africa/angola/mozambique/zambia/zimbabwe/malawi anyone? whites living initially in SA, then spreading out, taking the entire lower half of africa. Or maybe they develop/hold on to their India holdings). Without the gold riches of Brazil, Portugal may well have withered into nothingness taken over by Spain.

Perhaps the Inconfidência Miniera is more successful ITTL. That could explain why Brazil has a strained relations with Portugal while still not butterflying away Napoleon, which would need to occur for Portugal to even flee in the first place.
 
pack,
that's a good one for simply removing Brazil, but leaving all else the same. Dunno if there's any realistic chance of the movement succeeding. If it does, will Angola (basically a colony of Brazil at that point) go with them? Portugal would probably still have enough to keep Angola.

In such a scenario, Joao would probably aim for a gov't in exile (ie the azores) until Nap was taken out or plan on reconstructing the empire out of Angola if Nap succeeded. I think Joao truly wanted to permanently move the center of the empire to Brazil, but he was simply not a good enough leader to achieve it. For him, personally (and probably for Brazil overall), he'd have been better off if Nap had succeeded. In this ATL, with Angola being so undeveloped (and much of the coastal region being medically inhospitable to whites), and the azores being so small, the gov't in exile returns to Portugal before Waterloo.
 
why isn't Brazil under Portuguese control? did their possession get butterflied away? or did it get taken away, and if so, how long ago?

On April 22, 1500, during the reign of King Manuel I, a fleet led by navigator Pedro Alvares Cabral landed in Brazil and took possession of the land in the name of the king.
Between 1534 and 1536 King John III divided Brazil into 15 captainacy colonies. These colonies were given to Portuguese noblemen who wanted and had the means to administer and explore them.
The potential riches of tropical Brazil led the French, who did not recognize the Tordesillas Treaty, to attempt to colonize parts of the Portuguese colony.
In this scenario, the French gain control of Brazil. Portugal is expelled.
 
No way.Angola isn't a settler colony,so most people there are Africans.I don't see them receiving any rights.It's just too far off into the future.

I don't know. 10-15% of Angola's population was European-descended at independence. By contrast, Brazil is about half white/Euro-Brazilian. Not quite a settler colony, but not a pure exploitation colony like French or British West Africa. The climate isn't much more inhospitable for Europeans than Brazil. I don't see that significant a difference between Angola and Brazil.
 
I don't know. 10-15% of Angola's population was European-descended at independence. By contrast, Brazil is about half white/Euro-Brazilian. Not quite a settler colony, but not a pure exploitation colony like French or British West Africa. The climate isn't much more inhospitable for Europeans than Brazil. I don't see that significant a difference between Angola and Brazil.

In 1777, Angola had 1,581 Whites. By 1845, Angola only had 1,832 Whites. Neither figure was more than 0.2% of Angola's population at the time. The negligible growth between 1777 and 1845 was entirely due to immigration, as Angola's White population had a negative natural growth per annum for nearly all of the 18th and 19th centuries due to disease. Angola's entire White population was smaller than many contemporary cities in the Azores and Madeira (which both had far better climates, and were far less "remote"). In addition, many of the Whites in Angola were soldiers, merchants, clergy, and administrators, rather than actual colonists. The White population (except for the highest echelon of administration, military and clergy) was almost universally composed of deported criminals (generally guilty of Murder, Rape, or Arson). The gender ratio was horribly off balance within the White population, with there being nearly 11 White men for ever White Woman (In 1845, there were 156 White Women, and I imagine this was less in 1777).

By contrast, Brazil in 1818 had about 1,000,000 Whites, who made up 27% of the population at the time. In addition, Brazil's White population had a far more stable gender ratio (with positive natural growth). Brazil and Angola (or really Brazil and any other Portuguese colony at the time) are not really comparable.

Nearly all of the White population growth in Angola occurred during the Estado Novo dictatorship (1926-1974) which sought to integrate the colonies into the metropole.

The figures for Angola as a whole are below.

1900 2,716,000 (9,000 White; 14,000 Mestico)
1910 2,921,500 (12,000 White; 16,000 Mestico)
1920 3,13,200 (20,700 White; 19,000 Mestico)
1930 3,343.500 (30,000 White; 23,000 Mestico)
1940 3.737.947 (44,083 White; 28,035 Mestico)
1950 4,145,266 (78,826 White, 29,648 Mestico)
1960 4,830,449 (172,529 White, 53,392 Mestico)
1970 5,646,200 (400,000 White, 100,000 Mestico)
1972 (512,942 Whites according to a government survey)
1974 6,000,000 (600,000 White estimate; 150,000 Mestico)
 
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On April 22, 1500, during the reign of King Manuel I, a fleet led by navigator Pedro Alvares Cabral landed in Brazil and took possession of the land in the name of the king.
Between 1534 and 1536 King John III divided Brazil into 15 captainacy colonies. These colonies were given to Portuguese noblemen who wanted and had the means to administer and explore them.
The potential riches of tropical Brazil led the French, who did not recognize the Tordesillas Treaty, to attempt to colonize parts of the Portuguese colony.
In this scenario, the French gain control of Brazil. Portugal is expelled.

In this case the butterflies are so huge that there wouldn't be the Napoleonic Wars. It's more than 200 years before 1807.
 
In this case the butterflies are so huge that there wouldn't be the Napoleonic Wars. It's more than 200 years before 1807.
Agree.With a colony as rich as Brazil,France wouldn't need to go head to head with Britain for a few acres of ice in the north.That saves quite a bit of expense.Also,given how rich Brazil is,France would have no trouble attracting enough French immigrants in Brazil,meaning Brazil would have been better defended than New France. The whole scenario would have potentially butterflied the French Revolution,hence the Napoleonic Wars.
 
I imagine it would either be Ponta Delgada in the Azores (largest town in the Atlantic archipelagos circa 1807), or the court would just move to London in exile.

Both Azores and London certainly would mean a different escape. In Rio de Janeiro there was the capability of hosting hundreds of nobles, members of the government and civil servants. I doubt Ponta Delgada could offer the same conditions (considering how large was the IOTL demand for housing and food) they had in Rio to support so much people. So, if they had gone to Azores, it would be only a minimal number of members of the court (and would come back to Lisbon as soon as possible).
Regarding London, then it would probably be a scenario where only to royal family migrates (the British government wouldn't spend money housing and feeding hundreds of non royal Portuguese). Also, the lack of a proper Portuguese government in Portuguese government could make the colonies try to rule themselves, in a situation similar to the Spanish America.
 
Gonzaga,
agree that exile to London would be royal family only, and that it would eliminate any pretense of running what remained of the empire from outside Portugal. IF they wanted to have an empire, they need to transfer the court, not just the royal family.

An additional factor is: without the carrot of opening the market of Brazil to England, would the Brits bother to help the court escape at all?
 
an additional thought:
I'm going with the notion of Brazil separating a decade or two before the invasion. It's the only way to have things otherwise being the same. However, it may have the huge butterfly of eliminating the invasion to begin with.

Britain was holding Portugal's feet to the fire, threatening to cut them off from the colonies, mainly Brazil, if they didn't oppose the French. The main colony Portugal would miss is Brazil, so if B is already gone, and there not being enough time to build up a replacement jewel of the empire, P may very well say, fook it, and go along with the French demands. With Portugal in the fold, Nap has to look for another excuse to start the Peninsular War. I continue to maintain that Portugal was simply step one in invading Spain. Without the excuse of Portugal to enter French forces unopposed throughout Spain, Nap may think twice. Full acquiescence on the part of Portugal eliminates the excuse Nap needed. Thus, Portugal doesn't need to transfer the crown anywhere.
 
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