Not fascist Italy neutral in WW-II

What if,for some reason,fascism had failed to take the power,and Italy had remained a democracy,
and in WW-II Italian government (maybe democratic-christian) had decided to stay out to the war?
Italy could avoid trouble (for exemple a german invasion)?
And a Italy undisturbed by the war would be a more influent country in a post-war Europe?
 
What if,for some reason,fascism had failed to take the power,and Italy had remained a democracy,
and in WW-II Italian government (maybe democratic-christian) had decided to stay out to the war?
Italy could avoid trouble (for exemple a german invasion)?
And a Italy undisturbed by the war would be a more influent country in a post-war Europe?

It would be a much richer country, as both sides would buy products from Italian industry. There would be an economic boom all right, but lots of pressure from Berlin and London to stop supplying the adversary. After the Fall of France, would an independent Italy survive, though? Hitler could launch an operation to occupy the Northern part of the country, securing factories and stockpiles.
 
But would they have to attack through the Alps/Yugoslavia after the Fall of France? Couldn't they attack eastwards from the south of France just like Italy launched an attack in the opposite direction in OTL? That actually happened, right? Anyways, I doubt they would've been able to stay completely on the fence.
 
But would they have to attack through the Alps/Yugoslavia after the Fall of France? Couldn't they attack eastwards from the south of France just like Italy launched an attack in the opposite direction in OTL? That actually happened, right? Anyways, I doubt they would've been able to stay completely on the fence.

France was collapsing by that point yet they still managed to hold the Italians off.
 
+32. My thoughts exactly.

The thing with coups is that once someone does it sucessfully, then everyone starts thinking about it. Mussolini showed just how easily power could be taken and then kept by a fascist or authoritarian movement in a big West European power. Without that example, it is quite likely that things would end up quite differently. That is not to say there wouldn't be a big European War, but when/how, who and why?
 
Well i have fear that without Mussolini Hitler could be simply the first case of "fascist" dictator.
But if Italy is able to preserve a well balanced neutrality,why Hitler should be so stupid to invade?
For enlarge the front to Mediterranean and north africa?
With Italy out Germans are more strong: more troops to defend western Europe and more troops for Russian campaign.
Is not improbable that victory is more difficult for allied (maybe in 1945 with an atomic mushroom over Berlin or Dresda).
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
There's a TL around here (I think it's one of GK's) where a Fascist Italy under Italo Balbo stays neutral in WWII (IIRC they later join the Allies) and survives to the present.
 
Important things to consider before we even get to talking about World War II.

Would a democratic Italy have invaded Ethiopia? Unlikely. Without the Ethiopian crisis showing the weakness of the British-French bloc and the League of Nations, Hitler may not be so bold in some of his actions from 1936.

If Britain and France can count on alliance, or least benevolent cooperation with Italy, they have a much stronger bloc to confront Hitler. Much of international politics from 1934-1938 was Britain and France trying to decide to confront Italy, or woo her as an ally against Hitler. In this scenario, Britain and France would have a much clearer path in their stands against Hitler.

What would a democratic Italy have done in the face of German annexation of Austria? Mussolini threatened 6 million bayonets until he decided an alliance with Germany was preferable. In this case, Italy has a very good reason to oppose any anschluss.

Italy has South Tyrol, a land disputed between Germans and Italians. Hitler gave up German claims in 1939 to reward Mussolini for his stance on the annexation of Austria. This was unpopular with German nationalists. Hitler is not going to give up this claim to a democratic Italy that is not cooperating with him.

A democratic Italy would also change the political situation in the Balkans and Central Europe. France could very well succeed in encircling Nazi Germany with a strong series of alliances. Hitler would not have anywhere near the amount of diplomatic maneuvering as he did with Mussolini in power.
 
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What if,for some reason,fascism had failed to take the power,and Italy had remained a democracy,
and in WW-II Italian government (maybe democratic-christian) had decided to stay out to the war?

Does failing to take power for the Facists leave possible shades of facism within a democratic Italy. What if ...

1921. Mussolini elected to Chamber of Deputies.

October 1922. March on Rome. King V.E.III asks Mussolini to form a government.

November 1922. Mussolini forms a government out of a coalition of Fascists, nationalists, liberals, and the Popular Party.

1923. (POD) The Acerbo law to change the electoral system from proportional representation to single national constituency fails to pass as the oppostion parties organize their vote.

April 1924. Mussolini and the facists receive only 40% of the vote in the national election. The MVSN perform many acts of voter intimidation and violence leading up to the election. Regardless, King V.E.III again asks Mussolini to form a government.

May 1924. Giacomo Matteotti delivers several speeches in the Chamber of Deputies denouncing facism.

June 1924. An attempt is made to kidnap Giacomo Matteotti. He is injured, but escapes from the getaway car. The kidnappers are never found.

July - September 1924. Public unrest foments over the Matteotti crisis. MVSN forces take to the street to battle the protesters.

October 1924. King V.E.III calls Mussolini to his palace. The King issues Mussolini an ultimatum, denounce the MVSN or get recalled as Prime Minister.

November 1924. The Night of the Long Knifes. Mussolini, using powers as Dictator provided through the constitution, uses trustworthy elements of the army to purge the strongest elements of the MVSN.

1926. National elections. Mussolini, the Facists, and his coalition allies only receive 25% of the vote. King V.E.III asks Matteotti and the United Socialist Party to form the next government.
 
Important things to consider before we even get to talking about World War II.

Would a democratic Italy have invaded Ethiopia?

Absolutly not.


What would a democratic Italy have done in the face of German annexation of Austria? Mussolini threatened 6 million bayonets until he decided an alliance with Germany was preferable. In this case, Italy has a very good reason to oppose any anschluss.

Depends.
I don't think that a democratic christian (or a coalition with DC as mayor pary) would oppose to Gemany.
democratic christian are appeaser for nature (especially in Italy),so i think very improbable a reaction.

Hitler is not going to give up this claim to a democratic Italy that is not cooperating with him.

This is possible,
but is enough for an invasion in WW-II with the risk to enlarge the front to mediterranean?

A democratic Italy would also change the political situation in the Balkans and Central Europe .

A strong and decided Italy would also change the political situation in the Balkans and Central Europe...
But an Italy (Government,Church and Peoples) that want only be left peaceful and quiet?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Wouldn't no Mussolini create huge butterflies all over Europe?

Ok, let's say Hitler get in charge of Germany anyways, or why not a non- Nazi Germany goes crazy and start WW2. All in all, it would be good for Italy to stay out. (And if Yugoslavia seems weak they can claim Rijeka (Fiume) and claim it was to protect Italian interests).
 

Cook

Banned
Wouldn't the failure of Fascism butterfly away the rise of subsequent fascist movements in other nations(as we know them)? Germany in particular?

Yes. Italy remaining a democracy changes the entire geopolitical landscape of Europe throughout the ‘20s and, critically, the ‘30s. Mussolini the politician and (as importantly) the showman was the inspiration of not only Hitler in Germany and Franco in Spain, but Metaxas in Greece and Dollfuss in Austria. Far from a paper tiger, Italy at the time was seen as a major player on the European stage. Fascism would not have been seen to be ‘on the march’. Autocratic nationalist political organisations would still have been likely to develop in those countries but without the example of Italy they’d have a harder time gaining recruits since Italy would not be a source of Fascist propaganda and they would not be seen as inevitable.

A democratic Italy would be more likely to remain allied with the other victorious European democracies of World War One; France and Great Britain, than opt for neutrality.

The Spanish Civil War, if it still went ahead, would be very different without aid going to Franco from Italy. Italian submarines wouldn’t be sinking Russian freighters taking aid to the Spanish Republicans through the Mediterranean. A cohesive policy by Britain, France and Italy would be likely but would probably have been one of non-intervention or possibly the blockading of the Spanish Nationalists, not direct aid to the Republicans; France was too unstable for that to have been acceptable.

In Europe Hitler would have been seen as the only loose cannon and would face stronger, more united opposition, externally and possibly internally as well. An Italian Democracy would never acquiesce to a forced Anschluss and, if allied with Britain and France, would have put a serious break on the rollercoaster growth of Hitler’s power. When Mussolini faced no opposition from Britain and France to the conquest of Abyssinia, which Britain could easily have halted by stopping Italian troop and supply ships from transiting the Suez Canal, Hitler took it as proof that the democracies were spineless and would never forcefully oppose him. Without that example he may have been much more cautious, at least initially, war would have come later.
 
The failure of the March on Rome wouldn't mean the failure of Fascism itself. Deprived from power, there would still be Fascists in the Italian society, in the armed forces, etc.

Also, I don't think that would have an impact on Germany becoming Nazi.
 
Well "fascist" is a vague term.
In OTL Italian fascism was a container with inside a bit of all.
Nationalists,socialists,capitalists,Monarchists,Republicans,christians,atheists,
futurists,antimodernists,ecc,ecc,ecc,ecc.
So which type of "fascists"?
maybe you mean nationalists?
But without fascism in a democrativ regime i don't think that would have only talked.
Wide majority of Italian peoples just wanted live in peace.
Also Mussolini said this: "Italian pigs..lazy pacifists! just wanted be left quiet; when i'm dead will steal the empire"!
 
I'm with Cook and the others here. This effectively butterflies away World War II. Remember, there were several instances in which Hitler had to be talked out of bellicosity. Here, if he ignores the cooler heads of the military and diplomatic brass, he'll get toppled. However, that assumes he'd ever get into power to start with, a very remote prospect without Mussolini in Italy.
 
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