I think there's another possible consequence of Germany failing to seize Northern Norway. If we assume that ITTL the Kriegsmarine suffers an even more brutal butt kicking then IOTL, I can see Raeder being made the fall guy and forced out in the aftermath, would Donitz still succeed him? If he takes charge of the KM in 1940 then perhaps he persuades Hitler to abandon construction of ships like the Bismarck and Tirpitz arguing that the resources and manpower are better spent on U Boats? While they would have a harder route to reach the Atlantic this could perhaps be offset by their greater numbers?