Northern Wind, a P&S spinoff
- Thread starter JoHansen
- Start date
Very interesting timeline. I love a good Cold War-timeline , and I'm very glad that you are writing one. I've thought about it myself, several times. But I've never felt confident enough to try, or felt I had the time necessary to invest in making it realistic. So please keep it up!
I feel the question of the level of destruction after a nuclear war in the 80s is difficult. I remember that we back then always thought that the entire globe would be destroyed, should the war come. That the superpowers had enough nuclear weapons to destroy all life on Earth several times over.
But when you start to look into it, a different picture emerges. First it's the question of how much the nuclear powers manages to destroy of eachothers weapons. I.e. how much is actually left to use? Then it's the question of the purpose of the targeting: What to achieve with the nuclear weapons? As far I know, both sides tried to plan for a nuclear exchange with military, strategic aims. Not just throwing the weapons away on general mayhem. Terror bombing of civilial population centers is of course useful to a certain degree, but only as a means to and end: "encouraging" the enemy to surrender. But mostly, the threat of terror bombing remains just a threat, because in reality you don't have enough bombs and you don't want to repeat the mistake the Germans did in the Battle of Britain: bombing cities before you are certain that your military aims are secured. Another problem with bombing cities is also the fact that you want the enemy to be able to surrender. If you decapitate the enemy by blasting all government agencies, you've got nobody left to say "I surrender".
If you want to destroy the military capacity of the enemy, you have to choose your targets well: vehicles, ships, tanks, planes, of course. But priority would be on command and control, important transportation hubs, oil (like Johansen rigthly opens with a Soviet attack on Norwegian oil platforms), etc. But these are difficult to take out with nuclear weapons because they'r situated in mountain (protected after the NATO-standard for rock facilities from the 1956-direktive: to be able to withstand a 100 kt direct hit) or by just being very robust installations (like major bridges). To take these our, you need ground burst or even bunker busters. And they release relatively little radiation and create relatively little direct destruction in the surroundings. And you need several weapons to be able to take out key installations like Kolsås or Reitan.
Additionally, Norway is a difficult country to hurt, just because of geography, weather and low population density. Like Johanson mentions about Bergen: the winds take the radiation to sea. It's always windy at the coast. High pressure weather means easterly winds, from land to sea. Low pressure means southwest winds, taking the radiation more inland. But at the same time, low pressure means less radiation spread. So, unless the Soviet Union have been very lucky and been able to avoid extensive destruction of its nuclear capability, it will not have enough nuclear weapons to really hurt Norway outside of some key areas like Bodø and other important towns being situated directly besides key military bases. I think Johansons 2 million dead sounds about right. Thats from Bodø, the parts of Bergen near Haakonsvern, Stavanger and Oslo (both cities are somewhat easier to terrorbomb because of more open terrain and for Oslo much less wind, so the Soviets get "more bang for the buck" + Kolsås is near to Oslo and Jåttå/Sola airport is close to Stavanger). And several smaller towns like Andøya, Stjørdal (Værnes airport), Moss (Rygge Airport), Ørland, etc.
But the other half of Norwegians live in areas which are either militarily unimportant or just to spread out. By 1984 the government had managed to somewhat stem the tide of centralisation. Since 1950 all political parties had tried to actively promote decentralisation. A mixed success, but still we were more decentrallised than most other European nations. From the mid-1990s the centralisation-trend picked markedly up. But in 1984 we were still quite well spread out. So you'll get plenty of survivors even if Norway was considered one of the prime Soviet targets, as the Soviet gateway to the Atlantic.
The mountains will also hide many of us very well. F.ex is Bergen very difficult to destroy. A bomb on Haakonsvern could obliterate downtown, at the same time leaving many of the suburbs almost unaffected because of being hidden on the other side of quite tall mountains.
Since the powerstations are also hidden in mountains, and spread out in huge numbers over the entire country, I think the Soviets will not spare many bombs on those. Since any proper attempt to cripple our hydroelectric supply will demand so very many nuclear bombs, it little use to try. You can't even do a decent dent in the number of dams, as we favour very any smaller dams over a few large ones. In 1984 you could probably cripple the power lines to many towns, since we didn't yet have the amount of back up as we do today. But even that is difficult many places. The easiest places to cripple the power lines to, is the Oslo-area. Which would be destroyed anyway.
Would the living envy the dead: Well, I think most of us have such large survival instinct that we very seldom really wish we were dead. Even if we may say we do.
But still, the living will be in for a tough ride. The surviving communities will be scattered and somewhat isolated. With Oslo gone, long distance communications will be difficult, so communities will be left to fend for themselves. Since a modern society depends on regular trade, it'll be a real challenge. Important everyday items will suddenly disappear (like toiletpaper
). But except for one thing, the survivors will have a much easier time than in Finland (as I read another good P&S timeline): Food.
Norway is very long from self sufficient regarding food. Especially grains is mostly imported. Farmlands may be converted into grain. But our climate does not make it possible to grow enough grains, even with a reduced population. And the grains which we can grow, is mainly the tougher sorts like oat and barley, used for animal fodder. Before 1900 that was ok. But since then we've gotten used to eat bread instead of flatbread and porridge. That'll be some readjustment. And sugar is out. No more sweets to reward you after a tiring day of rebuilding.
How will society manage? Will the surviving parts of the country, which lacks so many basic goods and face quite imminent starvation, be willing to care for the large number of refugees from the bombed areas? And with the total destruction of the Bodø/Salten-area (the only area I think will be totally destroyed due to multiple important targets), will the South ever manage to reunite with the North?
The North is a big unknown. If we have managed to get some warning and mobilize, most of out fighting men are in Troms, defending the Frøy-Line. When the bombs start to fly, I presume the Soviets use tactical nukes in the Frøy Line, so the Norwegian lines start to crumble. But at the same time, US nuclear bombs take out the 75 km-stretch of Soviet lands from Litsa Fiord to Murmansk Fiord, thereby obliterating the entire Northern Fleet, the Northern Fleet Strategic Bomber Fleet and the entire Northern Fleet Nuclear Submarine Fleet (those that's not already on the High Seas). With Noregian Home Guard Units having managed to do their rask of destroying all the bridges and roads and such in Finnmark, the Soviet Army of Kola is suddenly alone and isolated just when it's on the brink of a breakthrough in Troms.
Then you'll have the most inhospitable and low-populated parts of Norway quite full of bewildered soldiers. They can't get back to Kola. They can't get South beacuse of the destruction of Bodø/Salten barring the way. And going to sea - the North Atlantic in winter - not very tempting.
I feel the question of the level of destruction after a nuclear war in the 80s is difficult. I remember that we back then always thought that the entire globe would be destroyed, should the war come. That the superpowers had enough nuclear weapons to destroy all life on Earth several times over.
But when you start to look into it, a different picture emerges. First it's the question of how much the nuclear powers manages to destroy of eachothers weapons. I.e. how much is actually left to use? Then it's the question of the purpose of the targeting: What to achieve with the nuclear weapons? As far I know, both sides tried to plan for a nuclear exchange with military, strategic aims. Not just throwing the weapons away on general mayhem. Terror bombing of civilial population centers is of course useful to a certain degree, but only as a means to and end: "encouraging" the enemy to surrender. But mostly, the threat of terror bombing remains just a threat, because in reality you don't have enough bombs and you don't want to repeat the mistake the Germans did in the Battle of Britain: bombing cities before you are certain that your military aims are secured. Another problem with bombing cities is also the fact that you want the enemy to be able to surrender. If you decapitate the enemy by blasting all government agencies, you've got nobody left to say "I surrender".
If you want to destroy the military capacity of the enemy, you have to choose your targets well: vehicles, ships, tanks, planes, of course. But priority would be on command and control, important transportation hubs, oil (like Johansen rigthly opens with a Soviet attack on Norwegian oil platforms), etc. But these are difficult to take out with nuclear weapons because they'r situated in mountain (protected after the NATO-standard for rock facilities from the 1956-direktive: to be able to withstand a 100 kt direct hit) or by just being very robust installations (like major bridges). To take these our, you need ground burst or even bunker busters. And they release relatively little radiation and create relatively little direct destruction in the surroundings. And you need several weapons to be able to take out key installations like Kolsås or Reitan.
Additionally, Norway is a difficult country to hurt, just because of geography, weather and low population density. Like Johanson mentions about Bergen: the winds take the radiation to sea. It's always windy at the coast. High pressure weather means easterly winds, from land to sea. Low pressure means southwest winds, taking the radiation more inland. But at the same time, low pressure means less radiation spread. So, unless the Soviet Union have been very lucky and been able to avoid extensive destruction of its nuclear capability, it will not have enough nuclear weapons to really hurt Norway outside of some key areas like Bodø and other important towns being situated directly besides key military bases. I think Johansons 2 million dead sounds about right. Thats from Bodø, the parts of Bergen near Haakonsvern, Stavanger and Oslo (both cities are somewhat easier to terrorbomb because of more open terrain and for Oslo much less wind, so the Soviets get "more bang for the buck" + Kolsås is near to Oslo and Jåttå/Sola airport is close to Stavanger). And several smaller towns like Andøya, Stjørdal (Værnes airport), Moss (Rygge Airport), Ørland, etc.
But the other half of Norwegians live in areas which are either militarily unimportant or just to spread out. By 1984 the government had managed to somewhat stem the tide of centralisation. Since 1950 all political parties had tried to actively promote decentralisation. A mixed success, but still we were more decentrallised than most other European nations. From the mid-1990s the centralisation-trend picked markedly up. But in 1984 we were still quite well spread out. So you'll get plenty of survivors even if Norway was considered one of the prime Soviet targets, as the Soviet gateway to the Atlantic.
The mountains will also hide many of us very well. F.ex is Bergen very difficult to destroy. A bomb on Haakonsvern could obliterate downtown, at the same time leaving many of the suburbs almost unaffected because of being hidden on the other side of quite tall mountains.
Since the powerstations are also hidden in mountains, and spread out in huge numbers over the entire country, I think the Soviets will not spare many bombs on those. Since any proper attempt to cripple our hydroelectric supply will demand so very many nuclear bombs, it little use to try. You can't even do a decent dent in the number of dams, as we favour very any smaller dams over a few large ones. In 1984 you could probably cripple the power lines to many towns, since we didn't yet have the amount of back up as we do today. But even that is difficult many places. The easiest places to cripple the power lines to, is the Oslo-area. Which would be destroyed anyway.
Would the living envy the dead: Well, I think most of us have such large survival instinct that we very seldom really wish we were dead. Even if we may say we do.
But still, the living will be in for a tough ride. The surviving communities will be scattered and somewhat isolated. With Oslo gone, long distance communications will be difficult, so communities will be left to fend for themselves. Since a modern society depends on regular trade, it'll be a real challenge. Important everyday items will suddenly disappear (like toiletpaper
). But except for one thing, the survivors will have a much easier time than in Finland (as I read another good P&S timeline): Food. Norway is very long from self sufficient regarding food. Especially grains is mostly imported. Farmlands may be converted into grain. But our climate does not make it possible to grow enough grains, even with a reduced population. And the grains which we can grow, is mainly the tougher sorts like oat and barley, used for animal fodder. Before 1900 that was ok. But since then we've gotten used to eat bread instead of flatbread and porridge. That'll be some readjustment. And sugar is out. No more sweets to reward you after a tiring day of rebuilding.
How will society manage? Will the surviving parts of the country, which lacks so many basic goods and face quite imminent starvation, be willing to care for the large number of refugees from the bombed areas? And with the total destruction of the Bodø/Salten-area (the only area I think will be totally destroyed due to multiple important targets), will the South ever manage to reunite with the North?
The North is a big unknown. If we have managed to get some warning and mobilize, most of out fighting men are in Troms, defending the Frøy-Line. When the bombs start to fly, I presume the Soviets use tactical nukes in the Frøy Line, so the Norwegian lines start to crumble. But at the same time, US nuclear bombs take out the 75 km-stretch of Soviet lands from Litsa Fiord to Murmansk Fiord, thereby obliterating the entire Northern Fleet, the Northern Fleet Strategic Bomber Fleet and the entire Northern Fleet Nuclear Submarine Fleet (those that's not already on the High Seas). With Noregian Home Guard Units having managed to do their rask of destroying all the bridges and roads and such in Finnmark, the Soviet Army of Kola is suddenly alone and isolated just when it's on the brink of a breakthrough in Troms.
Then you'll have the most inhospitable and low-populated parts of Norway quite full of bewildered soldiers. They can't get back to Kola. They can't get South beacuse of the destruction of Bodø/Salten barring the way. And going to sea - the North Atlantic in winter - not very tempting.
Uff Da the optimist
Donor
This has always given me a sort of dark humour comfort with WW3 in Scandinavia.
They might be starving to death in a desolate, dark home with freezing winds and radiation outside, but at least they live in the knowledge that whoever stupid enough to invade gets to share their homelands hidden treasures of natural death traps.
Perhaps Norway will be seen post-war as an attractive refuge and/or holiday spot? Few people, little radiation, a lot of intact infrastructure in less populated areas and not to mention a beautiful landscape.
That depends on a wide range of uncertanties; fallout, population, economics of the remanins of the norwegian state and so forth. There are a few cities on the coast that might be more suitable for the new norwegian goverment.
The remaning relativly low radiated part of Norway is suitable of growing potatoes, that helps. Even in a bad year you can expect to get a good crop. After the stockpiles of food is gone the norwegians have to depend upon the good ol potato. The fisheries also would have to play an important role, but polution and fallout streaming into the North Sea from the big rivers of Europe, could very well devastate the ecosystem of that ocean. In the 1980 there were many smal farms around the countryside. The western part of Norway have always tried to be self sufficent, in this time line that is going to save a lot of lives.
The coast is going to be a wery important transport and communications route. There is a large number of ships that can take care of trade and mail. How to get enough fuel for them is a different story. Convercions to steam? Sail? Time will show what path the norwegians follow. There is more than enough electric power for Norway. Maybe it can be used for another purpose then heat and light? I haven't forgot the heavy industry that's untouched by the war. Steel mills, aluminium mills, all sorts of industry that now must shut down. No ships gona bring in raw materials for a long long time.With Oslo gone, long distance communications will be difficult, so communities will be left to fend for themselves. Since a modern society depends on regular trade, it'll be a real challenge. Important everyday items will suddenly disappear (like toiletpaper
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The soundtrack
Oh - by the way, here is the piece that the worker listend to when the bombs started falling:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR7pfAgnXwo&feature=related
Oh - by the way, here is the piece that the worker listend to when the bombs started falling:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR7pfAgnXwo&feature=related
2 million dead... that's still almost half the population of 1984 Norway. The country's been pushed back to pre-1900 population levels, here.
Even if Norway hasn't been hit as hard as some others (simply because there aren't really that many targets), it's still a severe blow from which it will take a long time to recover from. Like every other country, for that matter.
Even if Norway hasn't been hit as hard as some others (simply because there aren't really that many targets), it's still a severe blow from which it will take a long time to recover from. Like every other country, for that matter.
I’m back. And it’s alive!
Northern Wind part VIII
Askøy County
Black snow fell slowly on Askøy. Remarkably not everything was lost. Even though the Shell and Mobile oil depots were burning, most of the windows facing south were broken; most of the people were alive. And the administration was working. They cooperated with the military and managed to have some sorts of control. The local radio saved a lot of lives as they told everybody to stay indoors and stay put in the shelters. After the first 3 days they tried to open up the roads, heavy snowfall had closed everything down. They tried to evacuate the bomb shelters but one shelter did not open the doors. On the fourth day everybody was out and the administration moved inn. The situation was at first no so bad as expected. A week after the exchange they managed to get a better look at the situation, the snow had stopped falling, and they knew from that moment on they had to start digging mass graves when spring came. Nearly 90% of the old and weak had perished, killed by cold and radiation. Almost every house on the south tip of Askøy had one or two casualties. And who knew what the spring would encounter. Food was also getting low; looting was becoming an increasing problem. But they had control, a machinegun stopped most looters. Rationing was strict, more and more people needed help when they ran out of supplies at home. But still they managed to have control.
Three months after the exchange the first signs of spring came but the crisis was far from over, radiation increased when the snow melted and the wind came from the south. Local radio had hourly reports on radiation but still radiation sicknesses got more and more people. Only the military had protective gear. As soon as weather got better and the snow melted, every able person were sent to work on the farms. Potatoes, carrots and turnips were planted everywhere. Sheep and cow was herded out to the parts of the island where farming couldn’t be done. Low rations and hard labor killed a few people, those who already were tagged by radiation went first.
The short summer came and went, but they managed to get descent amount of food for the winter. Barely enough, and that was because Askøy only housed 2/3 of its pre exchange population.
Communications were kept whit what was left of the Norwegian government in Bergen. Food production, security, transport and other issues were coordinated from here. When the power grid came online three weeks after the exchange everybody was very thankful for the efforts made from the Norwegian government. It wasn’t much, but saved a lot of lives and made people feel just a little bit normal.
I’m considering abandoning most of the personal stories. There is just too much stuff going on, to get my head around these days. I’m having a hard time finding any statistics concerning the food situation in Norway, so I’ll play it by ear. Please comment!
Northern Wind part VIII
Askøy County
Black snow fell slowly on Askøy. Remarkably not everything was lost. Even though the Shell and Mobile oil depots were burning, most of the windows facing south were broken; most of the people were alive. And the administration was working. They cooperated with the military and managed to have some sorts of control. The local radio saved a lot of lives as they told everybody to stay indoors and stay put in the shelters. After the first 3 days they tried to open up the roads, heavy snowfall had closed everything down. They tried to evacuate the bomb shelters but one shelter did not open the doors. On the fourth day everybody was out and the administration moved inn. The situation was at first no so bad as expected. A week after the exchange they managed to get a better look at the situation, the snow had stopped falling, and they knew from that moment on they had to start digging mass graves when spring came. Nearly 90% of the old and weak had perished, killed by cold and radiation. Almost every house on the south tip of Askøy had one or two casualties. And who knew what the spring would encounter. Food was also getting low; looting was becoming an increasing problem. But they had control, a machinegun stopped most looters. Rationing was strict, more and more people needed help when they ran out of supplies at home. But still they managed to have control.
Three months after the exchange the first signs of spring came but the crisis was far from over, radiation increased when the snow melted and the wind came from the south. Local radio had hourly reports on radiation but still radiation sicknesses got more and more people. Only the military had protective gear. As soon as weather got better and the snow melted, every able person were sent to work on the farms. Potatoes, carrots and turnips were planted everywhere. Sheep and cow was herded out to the parts of the island where farming couldn’t be done. Low rations and hard labor killed a few people, those who already were tagged by radiation went first.
The short summer came and went, but they managed to get descent amount of food for the winter. Barely enough, and that was because Askøy only housed 2/3 of its pre exchange population.
Communications were kept whit what was left of the Norwegian government in Bergen. Food production, security, transport and other issues were coordinated from here. When the power grid came online three weeks after the exchange everybody was very thankful for the efforts made from the Norwegian government. It wasn’t much, but saved a lot of lives and made people feel just a little bit normal.
I’m considering abandoning most of the personal stories. There is just too much stuff going on, to get my head around these days. I’m having a hard time finding any statistics concerning the food situation in Norway, so I’ll play it by ear. Please comment!
Good update, JoHansen!
The continuing present of organized authority will help them recover quicker (in the mid-long term).Yes, please keep it coming!
You've got a great tale of Norway's recovery after WWIII so I say, yes, keep it coming! I look forward with eagerness to future installments.
You've got a great tale of Norway's recovery after WWIII so I say, yes, keep it coming! I look forward with eagerness to future installments.
Do continue the story, good sir! We all need to pick up the slack now that the original timeline has reached its conclusion.
