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Today Northern Virginia--the DC suburbs of Virginia (defined broadly to include the "inner" suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria, the "classic" suburbia of Fairfax County, the "outer" suburbs of Loudon and Prince William Counties, and the exurbs of Fauquier, Stafford, etc. Counties)--comprises over 2.8 million people (about a third of the state of Virginia). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Virginia It is the most populous region of Virginia and of the Washington metropolitan area, and one of the most affluent areas of the US. It has become a decisive factor in Virginia politics, helping to change Virginia from a Republican to a swing, maybe even Democratic-leaning, state. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1226_3629.aspx

But suppose the CSA had won its independence (we'll ignore *how* for now). We'll assume that the US keeps its capital in DC, even though the city is now a border city. (Of course some might question this assumption, but while there will undoubtedly be arguments for moving the capital, it may stay where it is by default, because there are too many cities, each with its supporters in Congress, trying to be the new capital.) We'll also assume that US-Confederate relations eventually turn out to be fairly "normal" like US-Canadian relations, and that the Confederacy *eventually* does abolish slavery.

Question: In that event, how populous, urbanized, etc. is Northern Virginia? Presumably some of the growth that went there in OTL will in this ATL go to the Richmond suburbs (most likely the Confederate central government, like most in the world, will grow very substantially in the twentieth century). But DC and its Maryland suburbs will still grow enormously (even with a somewhat smaller US) and my question is what the impact of this will be just across the US/Confederate border? IMO, there could still be metropolitan growth in Northern Virginia even if DC is in a foreign country. Think El Paso/Juarez, San Diego/Tijuana, Detroit/Windsor, etc. Admittedly, the fact that DC's main industry is government makes it a special case, but still the growth of the DC area will lead to *some* development in Northern Virginia. (You may say that it's impractical for many employees of the US government to live in a foreign country--but remember that the great majority of residents of the DC area today are *not* employees of the federal government; their jobs are only indirectly connected with the growth of the federal government. In fact, "the D.C. metro -- with 14.1 percent of its workforce made up of federal employees -- actually ranks fourth in terms of the share of its workforce made up by the federal government. Topping it are Colorado Springs (with a 16.4 percent federal share), Virginia Beach (16.1 percent), and Honolulu (15.4 percent)".
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2013/11/americas-government-employment-belt/7576/)
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