Northern Virginia today if CSA independent

Today Northern Virginia--the DC suburbs of Virginia (defined broadly to include the "inner" suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria, the "classic" suburbia of Fairfax County, the "outer" suburbs of Loudon and Prince William Counties, and the exurbs of Fauquier, Stafford, etc. Counties)--comprises over 2.8 million people (about a third of the state of Virginia). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Virginia It is the most populous region of Virginia and of the Washington metropolitan area, and one of the most affluent areas of the US. It has become a decisive factor in Virginia politics, helping to change Virginia from a Republican to a swing, maybe even Democratic-leaning, state. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1226_3629.aspx

But suppose the CSA had won its independence (we'll ignore *how* for now). We'll assume that the US keeps its capital in DC, even though the city is now a border city. (Of course some might question this assumption, but while there will undoubtedly be arguments for moving the capital, it may stay where it is by default, because there are too many cities, each with its supporters in Congress, trying to be the new capital.) We'll also assume that US-Confederate relations eventually turn out to be fairly "normal" like US-Canadian relations, and that the Confederacy *eventually* does abolish slavery.

Question: In that event, how populous, urbanized, etc. is Northern Virginia? Presumably some of the growth that went there in OTL will in this ATL go to the Richmond suburbs (most likely the Confederate central government, like most in the world, will grow very substantially in the twentieth century). But DC and its Maryland suburbs will still grow enormously (even with a somewhat smaller US) and my question is what the impact of this will be just across the US/Confederate border? IMO, there could still be metropolitan growth in Northern Virginia even if DC is in a foreign country. Think El Paso/Juarez, San Diego/Tijuana, Detroit/Windsor, etc. Admittedly, the fact that DC's main industry is government makes it a special case, but still the growth of the DC area will lead to *some* development in Northern Virginia. (You may say that it's impractical for many employees of the US government to live in a foreign country--but remember that the great majority of residents of the DC area today are *not* employees of the federal government; their jobs are only indirectly connected with the growth of the federal government. In fact, "the D.C. metro -- with 14.1 percent of its workforce made up of federal employees -- actually ranks fourth in terms of the share of its workforce made up by the federal government. Topping it are Colorado Springs (with a 16.4 percent federal share), Virginia Beach (16.1 percent), and Honolulu (15.4 percent)".
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2013/11/americas-government-employment-belt/7576/)
 
It depends what the US-CS relationship is. If peaceful, there could still be civilian growth, but, if they are hostile, likely there would be quite a few bases across from Washington, so there would need to be support, meaning development, but either way, I think it would be a lot more rural, especially further away from the Potomac.
 

Delta Force

Banned
It might never become urbanized. Until the 1950s, Fairfax County was agricultural. In fact, Dulles International Airport was criticized for being built so far away from the capital in the middle of an empty field. Now Dulles is surrounded by highways, industrial areas, offices, and housing. The population growth is impressive.
 
Too much depends on factors not established in the original post. What is the relationship between the USA and CSA? What are the tariff and trade barriers like? Is the border open or closed? Are there miltary fortifications between the two countries in the region? What is the economic difference between the two countries? What are the differening status of civil rights of their citizens?

Give me different answers to the above, and I can come up with anything like the border between the US and Canada, US and Mexico, or to North and South Korea.
 
There are really too many variables here to extrapolate over the long term - I think the 'how' of independence is also highly relevant to this question - but I will say that I find the US keeping its capital in Washington out of the question unless it can move the border further south than the existing Maryland/Virginia border.
 
I suspect DC would remain the nominal capital, but most of the government functions would take place elsewhere. Remember, DC experienced massive during and after the Civil War.

Even if the USA-CSA relationship grows warmer, I'd expect it to be tense for several decades after the war, with occasional war scares and irredentism. That's not a situation conducive to growth. So I expect most government agencies would be based elsewhere (and remember that in the 19th century, the federal government is much smaller than the modern version anyway) even if DC remains the official capital. That's going to cut into population growth in the region, and I'd expect the Maryland suburbs would be easily capable of managing it.

Just the hassle of border-crossings (and even with good relations, I'd expect those to require passports and maybe inspections) would seriously deter the commuter population that makes up much of the OTL suburban population.
 
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