Alright here's a rough draft on the aftermath in Korea and Iraq. Both go a few months into the future. What I'm not sure on his how far to go and how much detail. Should I cover the events of the election, is Bush defeated by Kerry in TTL or is the Dem candidate different? Does Bush even lose?
Anyway please give me some feedback so I can improve the conclusion.
Epilogue
Aftermath: Korea
Although the ceasefire is in place, both sides prepare for, while hoping against, the resumption of hostilities. American troops maintain a high level of readiness, ready to finish the job and march on Pyongyang if called to do so. South Korean forces focus on securing the countryside. There are North Korean soldiers who refuse to acknowledge the ceasefire order or who have not received it. While some are coaxed into surrender, the diehards make random attacks against ROK or U.S. troops. Most are ineffective since they do not have heavy weapons. However there are large supplies of small arms and RPGs stashed in the North Korean cities and towns. Not all of these supply caches are secured by Allied forces.
North Korea struggles for the first weeks following the end of the war to deal with the complete breakdown of its transportation network. Smart bombs have dropped the majority of the major bridges and the roads are crated with war damage. Various towns and cities have little remaining supplies and unrest in them is growing. What soldiers can be spared are transferred from the North Korean FLOT to maintain order and reopen roads. Only a thin screen of NKPA forces exists across no-man’s land from the Americans and South Koreans. A determine drive by the Allies would rupture the North Korean front, causing Pyongyang to accept more Allied demands in order to maintain peace. The ROK and American forces provide major assistance to North Korean civilians behind their lines. Multinational aid groups also help especially with the chemical warfare causalities. Huge tent cities spring up near Kaesong and other heavily damaged areas to house the displayed people.
While both sides repair and rest, their governments work out demands for a permanent peace. American demands include the complete disarmament and destruction of the communists’ WMD programs. This would be carried out under IAEA and UN inspection. President Bush also makes clear that the United States wants complete control of the Yongbyon reactor complex and any other nuclear facilities. The Presidium has little choice but to agree. Their weak position combined with pressure from China forces their hand. U.S. troops move in to the complexes and secure them after uncomfortable transfers with NKPA troops at each facility. Efforts are made to learn how much information the North Koreans might have taken with them as evidence of missing files and computer records are discovered. They are pleased to find though that the centrifuges and other production equipment have remained behind.
North Korea wants Allied forces out of the country. The leadership knows that all the DPRK citizens trapped behind the lines are being exposed to life outside of the control by Pyongyang. The DPRK can exert little influence in the area due to the sheer number of Workers’ Party bureaucrats, community leaders, and security forces that fled in front of the Allied advance. Some elements of party control remain, but not enough to keep the North Koreans in the south from learning how good life is outside the ‘Workers’ Paradise’. Additional DPRK terms include the return of POWs, humanitarian aid, and a return to pre-war lines.
Negotiations which begin in Tokyo on July 15th are tense among the participants. Secretary of State Powell meets with the new DPRK Foreign Minster Kim Kye-gwan (formerly the deputy). Other representatives from the allied nations South Korea, Japan, Australia, and finally Thailand and Singapore also attend the peace negotiations. Over a period of three months the terms for a more lasting peace are laid out. In a move which surprises many, President Roh Moo-hyun agrees to a slow withdrawal of ROK troops from occupied North Korea. Many expected Roh to want unification. However several factors have led Roh and his government to decide against the idea of reunification, at least for now.
First the cost of occupation is high. Having smashed the North’s towns and cities, the South is forced to feed and care for thousands of North Koreans behind their lines. Doing so for the entire country would be a huge drain on their economy even with American assistance. This would be on top of the cost of rebuilding in the ROK itself. Seoul, Munsan, Tongduchon, Chrowon, Kojin and other cities have all suffered war damage. President Roh would like to see Korea united once and for all but not at the cost of bankrupting the nation. Although he does take political flak from some of the other members of the government, Roh’s position is the majority.
To partly cover himself, Roh does approve of the eventual movement of North and South Koreans to reunite family members and provide visits for civilians separated by the DMZ. South Korea also begins taking in North Korean refugees. Some wish for political freedom others simply want to try and get food and a job in the South. The North Koreans protest these decisions but can do little to back up their words. In a consolation move, the Allies agree to provide North Korea with economic assistance and for the remains of the DPRK Air Force cargo planes and helicopters to move supplies around their portion of the country. However all air activities will be monitored and tracked by USAF and ROKAF aircraft.
For the future security situation, a significant ROKA force will remain above the old DMZ for at least five years. The line between North Korea and the Allied Security Zone (ASZ) runs from Ongijn northeast to Sariwon then finally ending at Wonsan. The line will fall further back towards the original DMZ over the next five years. This gives the Allies a genuine security zone and allows for rapid deployment into North Korea should the country collapse. Inside the ASZ the Allies begin repairs to the DPRK roads and communities. Efforts are made to begin hiring North Koreans to do some of the work themselves. The Tokyo Accords, which signified the official end of the war, are signed by all the participants on August 30th.
North Korea’s ruling Presidium begins the long work of rebuilding the country and trying to maintain order. Food riots are a common problem in the first few months following the end of the war. Food is delivered by various sources especially China. Nearly one third of the food supplies and two thirds of the fuel supplies being delivered to the DPRK are Chinese. Additional aid comes from the United Nations which sets up medical clinics and food distribution centers inside the country. Most however are set up in the ASZ with Chinese centers popping up inside the rest of the country.
Former Foreign Minster Paek Nam-sun now the lead ‘chairman’ of the Presidium attempts to keep China from gaining too much influence. However using the leverage of their support and pro-PRC members of the North Korean government, they keep Paek in check. He in turn responds by seeking more support from outside sources. Paek and others are determined to prevent North Korea from becoming a Chinese dominated state. Western analysts both civilian and those in the intelligence services are wondering who will win the contest in the coming years.
Japan comes out from the war stronger. The JSDF sees its service during the war as an example of the role they can play in security in the Pacific. Anti-Japanese feelings in South Korea are still high but polls done in the months following the war shows a slight dip in the numbers. The lost of several Japanese ships and planes to the North Koreans during the war seems to play a part. Tokyo begins renewed talks with America on expanding its role in the Pacific and world.
For the United States the Second Korean War has cost both lives and huge sums of money. The total causalities from the war in all the service branches come to over 2,500 killed in action with another 7,000 wounded. Dozens of aircraft from the Air Force and Navy were lost in the war. Naval losses include the USS O’Brien which was sunk in the Sea of Japan. A torpedo attack on the USS Kitty Hawk forced her out of action. The cost of repairing the ship and time it would take leaves the Defense Department with the conclusion that is better push up its retirement. A considerable amount of the U.S. Army’s active strength is now committed in Korea.
Among the occupying forces are the 2nd Infantry Division (brought to full strength during the war), 4th Infantry Division, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, 25th Infantry Division (Light), and the III Marine Expeditionary Force from Japan. The Marines in theater include the 3rd Marine Division and the MEF’s air wing. Some elements of the American force begin to return home as the DOD begins working up a time table for small units to be rotated in both Iraq and Korea. Security for the major North Korean cities and towns in the western half of the country falls to them. ROK Third Army elements secure Kaesong and the surrounding area while the First Army secures the east. Wonsan and some the coast is controlled by the III MEF.
President Bush attempts to play up the success of the Allied force in Korea. Following his presence at the signing of the Tokyo Accords, he flies to the aircraft carrier Carl Vision. Reports by White House aides suggest the President actually ‘landed’ the jet that carried him to the ship. Following the landing and change of clothes, President Bush gives a speech on the deck of the carrier praising the hard won peace by the Allied forces. A last minute change to the speech, suggested by Secretary of State Powell, has Bush stress the role of the Allied nations and their part in the victory. He also suggests that the large ‘MISSION ACCOMPLISHED’ banner planned for speech is a mistake. Powell believes that with a looming long period of occupation and the confused situation in Iraq, such a statement will hurt the U.S. and by accusation the President. White House aids attempt to convince the President that won’t be the case but in the end Bush agrees with Powell, the banner is kept locked away.
The speech receives mixed reviews from Republicans and Democrats. While they agree that the U.S. armed forces have done a wonderful job, they hammer the President for allowing the war to breakout in the first place. Among those doing the questioning are the Democratic nominees for president. John Kerry, Howard Dean, John Edwards, former NATO commander General Wesley Clark, and others demand to know why Bush was so preoccupied with Iraq, when North Korea was planning a war of aggression and acquiring nuclear weapons. Many pre-war critics of the Bush Administration’s decision to go to war with Iraq use Korea to support their claims of how distracting and pointless it’s become. The wars in Korea and Iraq become a key issue of the upcoming presidential race.
Aftermath: Iraq
While things are settled for the most part by international agreements and forces in Korea, no similar outcome exists for Iraq. Repeated efforts by Russia, China, Germany and France at the UN Security Council to address the issue fail. Either the opposing countries themselves can’t work together, or the American Veto is used. Similarly American efforts to get a new resolution to endorse their mission are blocked by the opposition. Many of the European countries are trapped trying to do two things at once. On one hand they are trying to support U.S. efforts in Korea but they also are trying to get the Americans to withdraw from Iraq. This limbo isn’t helped by the Iraqis or United States who have been trapped in their own mini Phony War since May.
Saddam Hussein makes public statements calling for all true Muslims to rise up and join the fight in Iraq. However his core of volunteers that existed at the beginning of the war has dried up. Most of the fighters had come from Palestine and Syria. American control of the western desert and their total air dominance prevents them from coming in. Even if they do manage to sneak across the border, the jihadists simply end up fighting in American Control Iraq (ACI). His own armed forces are in no condition to attack the Americans.
With their air superiority the U.S. can attack Iraqi troops at will. Since the majority of them have been deployed in the cities to keep order in Saddam’s remaining territory, strikes on them have been few. However any time Iraqi troops move towards the ACI or in more open areas inside Saddam’s Iraq, they are hit by JDAMs and other weapons. Several accidents where Iraqi food and supply convoys are hit give Saddam some PR ammunition to use. General Tommy Franks responds to criticisms of the policy by promising to limit American air attacks; however the Coalition Forces have the right to go after any military targets they see fit. This includes Saddam himself.
Since the start of the war in March, there have been a dozen attempts to kill Saddam Hussein and his sons, Uday and Qusay. The first was a strike by a pair of F-117 Nighthawks against Saddam’s rumored location. Others during the war included cruise missile attacks and more precision strikes by stealth and bomber aircraft. In late July Coalition forces learn that Qusay Hussein will be visiting a Republican Guard unit in Tirkit. After passing the decision further up the chain of command, Franks receives the go ahead to take out Qusay.
One July 23rd British GR4 Tornados and American F-16s attack the Republican Guard division’s lagers and sites in Tirkit. While the British aircraft target its equipments and barracks the USAF Falcons go after Qusay. The headquarters building is hit by a multiple 500 pound JDAM bombs. The strike kills Qusay and the staff at the headquarters. This strike brings a new round of fighting. Saddam orders the military to punish the Americans and kill as many of them as possible. While the Iraqi General Staff of course respond with enthusiasm, in private they have no idea how to carry out the order.
Iraq’s divisions are deployed in the cities, with the best units of the Republican Guard inserted into Baghdad to keep Saddam in power and block the Americans in Karbala. The once proud Iraqi Air Force was forced, by a bizarre order of Saddam’s, to literally burry their aircraft in sand. However motivated by the threat of death at the hands of the Special Republican Guard the Iraqi generals manage to come up with a plan. They slowly move small units of company sized infantry and equipment forwards. The objective will be Ar Ramadi. Not all the moves towards the town go undetected, with many of the vehicle convoys being hit by air or helicopter attacks. Movement of simply infantry and their small arms goes better. After a week of such movements a rough division sized element has gathered along the Euphrates River. Saddam gives the order for an attack to recapture areas of the ACI, which the Iraqi generals know is hopeless.
Iraqi efforts to conceal the attack have failed. Coalition air and ground intelligence units learn of the attack during the initial Iraqi moves towards the river. General Franks sees it as an opportunity to destroy a portion of the remaining Iraqi Army. He informs Washington that such a blow will further weaken Saddam’s control. Analysts however argue otherwise. President Bush is hopeful that the CENTCOM commander is right and approves of Frank’s decision to let the Iraqi Army come to him rather than preempting the assault. Heavy units of the 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) including its 1st Brigade move into position in the town. U.S. forces also attempt to evacuate the civilians with little success.
The attack begins with mortar strikes. Heavier artillery would be located and destroyed by the American air power. With advanced preparation however the U.S. is ready with radar direction finder sets. These track the mortar rounds from their launchers to the U.S. troops. Heavy artillery from 155mm guns and U.S. Army mortars counter-battery the Iraqi sites. The quicker Iraqi mortar crews manage to survive, the slower ones are killed by the artillery. Things continue to go badly for the Iraqi attack when the infantry move into the assault.
Iraqi infantry armed with AKs and other light weapons attempt to cross the Euphrates River. They are hit hard by artillery and air strikes. Those that do get into the water are then hit by direct fire from M2A2 Bradleys and M1A1 tanks. Falling back in disarray the Iraqis attempt to escape the carnage. To their shock they run into more Americans. Elements of the 1st Brigade crossed the river to the west. They then ran across the desert and hit the Iraqi’s in the rear. Few AFVs or other anti-tank weapons are in their path. The Abrams tanks and Bradleys overrun the Iraqi rear and surround the bloodied assault force. This causes the Iraqis to desperately shuffle forces to block the approaches to Fallujah and Baghdad.
While the Battle of Ramadi has killed and captured additional Iraqi troops and men, it proves undeceive in the grand scheme of things. The supply strain placed upon the U.S. forces with wars in Afghanistan, Korea, and Iraq leaves the U.S. Army few options in Iraq. The Battle of Ramadi ate up stocks of fuel, weapons, and mechanical parts. The Iraqi fears of an American advance across the river and then onto Fallujah and the capital are unfounded. 1st Brigade could not have supported such a drive, only at the cost of handicapping the rest of the 3rd Infantry which had the job of threatening/containing Baghdad from the south.
As General Tommy Franks touted the U.S. victory many in the country and around the world just see the stalemate. Iraq cannot push the U.S. out; the United States can’t march on Baghdad without serious stretching its military abilities. President Bush and the administration take huge criticism from both political parties and the international community. The American public supporting the effort in Korea doesn’t understand the mission in Iraq. Plus many begin to question the Bush Administration’s claims of WMDs. The ‘experts’ on television ask if Iraq had them wouldn’t they use them by this point. Things are not helped when embedded reporters files stories on the stand down by American troops of their MOPP procedures and gear, the material and steps that would protect them from a WMD attack.
Former General Jay Garner continues the work of the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance in the form of a new agency the Coalition Provisional Authority in providing the Iraqis inside the ACI food, supplies, and political control. Iraqi cities and towns behind the American lines have leadership councils. These councils each elect a representative that then deals with General Garner’s staff. By giving the Iraqi’s as much say as possible in the governing of their homes helps ease tensions between the U.S. troops and civilians. Speedy delivery of supplies and repairs to infrastructure destroyed in the invasion also plays a part.
With the signing of the Tokyo Accords in August, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney return to the idea of removing General Garner from his position at the head of the CPA. Both men were staunch supporters of the de-Ba’athifaction policy. Earlier in May and June the two had brought the issue up with Garner who left many Ba’ath party members in positions of power. In addition Garner wants to hold elections as quickly as possible. Feeling that more control is needed, the Vice President wants to appoint Paul Bremer to the head of the CPA in Garner’s place. The positive reviews though coming from the ACI undercut Secretary Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney’s arguments. President Bush in a cabinet meeting in September says that Garner would stay.
Saddam’s portion of Iraq, which consists of a mere crescent of the country in the east and southeast, is far less stable then the ACI. Increasing dissent among the population and his own government is weakening the dictator’s control by the fall. Iran has stepped up its efforts to encourage the Shi’a population to revolt against Saddam. Members of the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian intelligence supply willing groups with material support and weapons. Fighting breaks out in southern Iraq as Shi’a towns attack the Iraqi Army forces deployed around them. Saddam’s response is to brutally crush the insurgents when they strike. These reprisals only fuel additional resistance.
Iran also directs its disruption efforts inside the Coalition sectors as well. Shi’a militants are encouraged to go after the British and American troops deployed in Basra and Umm Qasr. Attacks are made on the Coalition troops who respond with far more restraint than Saddam’s forces. Britain’s 1st Armored Division and elements of the American I Marine Expeditionary Force begin raids to round out suspected insurgents and their weapon caches. Iraqi’s are cooperative with the Allied forces. Although they chafe being under the military presence, the attacks by insurgents which have killed more civilians than Coalition soldiers, do not sit well with the population. Many Shi’a are resentful to the fact that Iran thinks it should have power or influence over them. Several insurgent leaders are rounded up, but others remain.
In November agreements are finally worked out to allow the flow of supplies to Saddam’s Iraq. Since the British capture of Umm Qasr, Saddam Hussein had lost his only port. Supplies of food, medicine, and other items were forced to come in by air. At first only Red Cross and Crescent flights approved by the Coalition were allowed in. This slow trickle of supplies was not enough to sustain the population Saddam still controlled. By the Fall major shortages of food and other supplies inside Saddam’s Iraq. It was partly hoped by CENTCOM that this would bring Saddam down. However the continued choking of supplies has only brought international criticism on President Bush and the Coalition.
Prime Minster Tony Blair who was already taking as much political flak as President Bush is the first to suggest some sort of agreement with Saddam’s government be worked out. The British leader hopes that his efforts will ease some of the anger directed at him by MPs and the population. Negotiations with Iraqi officials begin in secret in Geneva. After a few weeks they are brought into the open. On November 10th a supply agreement is finalized. Several days later the first shipments cross Coalition lines. American and British soldiers intimidate their Iraqi counterparts at the crossing points, to ensure there is no trouble. Despite the improved supply situation, claims of corruption and mismanagement by Saddam’s government put a shadow over the whole operation.