North Korea collapses circa 1995

Should the DPRK become totally defunct as a nation because of the famine of the 1990s and suffer national collapse how does the rest of the world react and what is the fate of the Peninsula?
 
What happens when it becomes defunct? Because someone will still be in power after they're presumably dragging Kim Jong-il through the streets. My guess is that North Korea will want immediate Korean Reunification, and IIRC in the 90s in South Korea it was more politically popular. But China would be against Korean Renification, and probably force North Korea into being a puppet state. Reunification would only proceed if and when China's demands are met, and will that be acceptable for South Korea and especially the United States? And when they are met, will South Korea still push for it?

North Korea is going to be an utter mess for at least a decades, and afterwards only slightly less of a mess assuming it goes the China route of development, alongside receiving huge amounts of South Korean and Chinese investment and subsidies. Millions of North Koreans will leave for the South. And what will they do with the Korean People's Army, since a significant chunk of it will be disbanded as it's no longer needed?
 
Given that Seoul is so close to the OTL border, is it likely that China & South Korea would agree a new line further North ? circa Taedong (sp) Estuary ? The Southern part & 'Economic Zone' become part of 'Korea', the Northern part becoming a Chinese territory, administered from Pyongyang ??
 
Given that Seoul is so close to the OTL border, is it likely that China & South Korea would agree a new line further North ? circa Taedong (sp) Estuary ? The Southern part & 'Economic Zone' become part of 'Korea', the Northern part becoming a Chinese territory, administered from Pyongyang ??
No way does South Korea, Japan, or the US agree that North Korea becomes a Chinese administered anything. Even Russia wouldn't be on board for that plan. And there's no way China can do that unilaterally, anything related to North Korea simply due to geopolitics HAS to be agreed upon by those other players, otherwise war.
 
I'm thinking triage...
Alternative is to have the Nork standing army getting real-uppity about where their food is coming from...
 
Chaotic would be putting it lightly. I could see millions rushing for the borders creating a humanitarian crisis.

After seeing the intense emotions following Kim Il-Sung's death, Kim Jong-Il's death, lacking an heir most likely, could bring the fantasy of a heaven sent leader crashing down. Their entire reality would collapse. The military couldn't just step into those mystical shoes. Hell, I could see a civil war as factions battle it out while others desert (a very real possibility as paranoia keeps many soldiers at their posts).

China isn't going to demand anything other than a neutral Korea (which the US may agree to as Clinton was seeking less commitments abroad militarily). American dollars and manufacturing jobs tied them to us economically and their desire for WTO membership could be used as a delicious carrot. Also, Russia was a quasi-ally under Yeltsin who would, at best, support American and South Korean action or at worst be ambivalent regarding the entire scenario.

The discovery of prison camps is going to shock the world and trials will be coming. Deprogramming the populace will be another issue altogether. It will likely take a generation before real improvement is seen (East Germany but worse). The Korean economy will struggle but I don't doubt western aid to make up the shortfall, especially after the depravities of the North are discovered. On a plus side, expect numerous documentaries and videos dealing with the reunification of families divided between the two nations. That alone would put a very human face on the situation and help encourage support for reunification.
 
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China tries to get friendly with the ROK and as kind of limited success; they are careful about it but can only make so much headway. So China secures the Korean border at the Yalu, both to keep its border with Korea secure and to avoid a huge exodus of DPRK refugees.

SK looks at the situation and simply mutters, "Shit." They know reunification is the goal and the inevitable end result, but it's going to be a shit-ton of work dismantling the DMZ, quelling riots, building the North back up and rehabilitating the population. Lots of people will still be loyal to the Kim regime, so reuniting the entire peninsula and avoiding a DPRK rump state will be a task in and of itself.

The end result will take the better part of a generation to achieve, and in this universe, we will most likely be hearing about the economic potential of the North, still a largely poor area with Pyongyang full of slums and desperation. However, it will probably have some investment from Chinese businesses as well as companies like Samsung and Hyundai using the area for less expensive labor; people will have to learn to trust corporations from the US and Japan again, and the generations that distrust them will still go strong. Drinking Coke or owning a PlayStation will be seen as a sign of rebellion among NK youth; that is, when young people can afford them. There may even be a black market of stolen or knock-off products pervasive in NK, with Panmunjom becoming a sort of NK version of Tijuana for a while.
 
The more China resists to Korean reunification under SK terms (supported by the US), the worst it could be for them. By 1995, the PRC is not nearly as strong or has the economic influence of 2017. Sanctions or even prolonged geopolitical unstability would scare off Western investments, and stunt it's economic growth. In the end, Korea would still be unified but Asia as a whole would take longer to achieve it's economic potential.
 
Perhaps China would allow unification if the US still couldn't place troops north of the previous border...

If Korean Reunification occurs, then there's a lot less of a reason to justify American troops in Korea, especially from the Korean side of things. At some point, the US would be persuaded to trim back the amount of soldiers there anyway.
 
If Korean Reunification occurs, then there's a lot less of a reason to justify American troops in Korea, especially from the Korean side of things. At some point, the US would be persuaded to trim back the amount of soldiers there anyway.
I don't know man, you could say the same for since the Cold War ended, but the US still has military territories all over the world.
 
I would see the US military still keeping bases in the south just for flag-showing and also for reasons for the local economy (jobs, ya know). There would be some sort of agreement with the PRC to keep US forces away from the Yalu with a special border zone. The PRC would say to us "You can do military exercises and the like even in the northern part but the area close to the Yalu is off limits".
 
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