North Carolina Remains in the Union

A question I've wondered recently is what would happen if North Carolina decides to maintain itself in the Union in some form rather than seceding. I'm not sure how to have this occur; my best thought would be to have the secession vote put up to a popular vote. Then, possibly, the vote remains close enough that it comes out for the Union but both sides accuse each other of fraud. Unionist and Secessionist governments are both set up.

I'm trying to achieve a situation as in Missouri and Kentucky with North Carolina; also, no Tennessee remaining in the union in this scenario. I will suppose that the pro-secessionist movements in both states are whipped into a rabid fervor by their loss to the east and ensure that both other states secede, even if it means fixing the election. I personally think that if North Carolina remains, there's a good chance that Tennessee might similarly be split, but I'm curious what might exactly happen if North Carolina finds itself a neutral state surrounded on all sides.

If that scenario managed to come about, what would: a) The effects on the initial war plans for both sides (especially concerning Virginia's now-relative isolation from the rest of the South) and b) The longer term effects on the war and the neutral states.

NC Union.png
 
From what I remember on the matter, North Carolina was one of the most reluctant states to secede from the union, and only did so when it was completely surrounded, which was after Sumter fell, Tennessee went rogue, and Virginia joined.

It was torn on an East-West basis; Westerners in NC tended to either be unionist or apathetic, while Easterners were more supportive of the CSA. Central NC tended to lean towards the east. In a lot of ways, it was akin to Tennessee in that regard. It'd be quite possible in my opinion to have it become a Missouri or Kentucky if the center of the state didn't swing towards the east or you had the debate become muddled.

NC being neutral would suck for the CSA; Wilmington was one of their bigger ports, and NC was a big manpower pool for them (it contributed the largest amount of soldiers to the war).
 
From what I remember on the matter, North Carolina was one of the most reluctant states to secede from the union, and only did so when it was completely surrounded, which was after Sumter fell, Tennessee went rogue, and Virginia joined.

It was torn on an East-West basis; Westerners in NC tended to either be unionist or apathetic, while Easterners were more supportive of the CSA. Central NC tended to lean towards the east. In a lot of ways, it was akin to Tennessee in that regard. It'd be quite possible in my opinion to have it become a Missouri or Kentucky if the center of the state didn't swing towards the east or you had the debate become muddled.

NC being neutral would suck for the CSA; Wilmington was one of their bigger ports, and NC was a big manpower pool for them (it contributed the largest amount of soldiers to the war).

I imagine that recruitment would still continue; it is surrounded on both sides, but it wouldn't be able to contribute as many. The biggest probem I would see in this case would be the rail connections to and from Virginia. There is only one single rail line that connects from Virginia to Tennessee. With the Confederate supply lines stretched as it is, would they consider trying to invade the Eastern half of the state to try and get better supply lines?

That might not do great things for recruitment either, especially since they would be invading a nominally neutral state solely for the sake of linking Virginia and the rest of the Confederacy. It might not illicit the best response from the natives.
 
1) I doubt they'd stay in the Union if surrounded on all sides by the CSA. Technically, your best bet would be if BOTH NC and VA stayed in.
2) rail links aren't really (or immediately) a problem. If you have a friendly port, logistics work better/cheap via sea.

I could see an Alt-Civil War where Virginia and Kentucky are 'neutral' (i.e. stay in the Union, but refuse to contribute troops, and demand that no troops cross their borders.) Now, this would likely require someone other than Lincoln as president, as I doubt he'd look kindly on such actions. Still. Suppose that happened, but NC stayed in the Union, and allowed Union troops to land. Union advances could then happen from the southern border of North Carolina, not the northern border of Virginia, which would make a huge difference, once the Union got fully ramped up.

Of course, by the time the Union got fully ramped up, the CSA might well have taken all of NC except the port city(s) occupied by Union troops.


Given that a Union NC most likely requires a 'neutral' VA (it's hard to see VA being strongly pro-Union), the CSA is very much weakened. VA was the largest source of industry in the CSA, provided many of the leaders, etc.

It's probably a much shorter war - more because of VA neutrality than NC loyalty, but the latter would have an effect once offensives got rolling.



NC in the Union, and VA in the CSA is such a bad case for NC that they'd be overrun even if the Union got some men and supplies into a port. Thus the war wouldn't end up being all that very much different. (Which is why NC wouldn't do it.)


Hm....
Third possibility. NC tries what KY tried (but on the other side). Neutrality, as long as no troops crossed the borders. THAT would be interesting. Having the CSA required to route all north-south military shipments around NC, especially considering the already dilapidated state of CSA logistics would massively hamstring the CSA effort.

Enough so, that the CSA would probably end up invading NC. Now, if THAT happened, it might be far enough into the war that the Union could actually provide enough troops to defend NC. Which would be interesting.
 
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I imagine that recruitment would still continue; it is surrounded on both sides, but it wouldn't be able to contribute as many. The biggest probem I would see in this case would be the rail connections to and from Virginia. There is only one single rail line that connects from Virginia to Tennessee. With the Confederate supply lines stretched as it is, would they consider trying to invade the Eastern half of the state to try and get better supply lines?

That might not do great things for recruitment either, especially since they would be invading a nominally neutral state solely for the sake of linking Virginia and the rest of the Confederacy. It might not illicit the best response from the natives.

I'd say they probably would try and force North Carolina into the Confederacy. They did it to Kentucky when they tried to stay neutral. They did this mainly because they wanted to seize a railroad connection and river point. That and Kentucky would've been one of the more industrialized states of the CSA if it went with them.

And like with Kentucky, North Carolina in that situation would probably declare for the Union. But only if Dixie strikes first, and not the Yanks.
 
You pretty much need VA or TN to remain in. Either would suck for the CSA but VA would be worse.

How about a mini-civil war in Tennessee, where the eastern part of the state stays loyal due to another botched convention, giving at least a lifeline to NC and only making it a salient rather than surrounded. Would that work to keep them neutral?
 
Having them stay as a neutral in the war does make the most sense. If they were to do that, there were be governments formed on either side and there would be volunteers to either side of the cause. If NC does go neutral, then there is a relatively good chance that TN would as well.

The combination of both would pose an interesting question. What does the South do against two neutral states cutting off the supply lines to Virginia, and what does the North do? Would the North simply concentrate on Virginia and operations in the West and wait for the South to make a move against NC/TN first?
 
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The combination of both would pose an interesting question. What does the South do against two neutral states cutting off the supply lines to Virginia, and what does the North do? Would the North simply concentrate on Virginia and operations in the West and wait for the South to make a move against NC/TN first?

Both sides would support 'their' NC government & Virginia would have to both attempt to open a corridor to the deep south while defending against a Union army marching to Richmond. South Carolina would be key in the early days for opening a corridor to Virginia. Raw Carolina & Virginia militias in haphazard battles along Tidewater & Piedmont roads.

Richmond itself would not be the Confederate capitol. Virginias isolated situation would dictate otherwise.
 
Ok lets give this a fair go, the OP deserves that much so lets do this. North Carolina decides to stay in the Union they do this dispite being surrounded by the confederacy. So they are going to get invaded lets say this support is hard core and they fight back.

Their doomed but its a huge media coup for the union. Little North Carolina being loyal to the union against all odds thats going to help their reputation. The southern occupation of North Carolina is going to be harsh the confederacy needs all the resources it can get and the feeling that North Carolina betrayed the confederacy.

This leads to back woods fighting, which leads to some pretty nasty responses but the thing is all of this drains the confederacies very limited resources so the civil war is going to end some what sooner then it did OTL.

Now its after the war, North Carolina instantly regains state hood, their the good southern state who remained loyal against the odds and dispite the risks. Expect local historians and experts on state history to play that up. This is going to have a major impact on what the state thinks about themselves and the states culture.

There are going to be songs about the bravery of the state, created both in state and by union forces. This is going to be a cultural touch stone expect at least one civil war movie where the northern forces talk about a war and then a passionate speech by a south carolina soliger about freeing his state from the invaders.

North Carolina may pick up a nickname like the faithful state, or the loyal state. Time will past but this will become a major part of the states mythos and even if the defenders were terrible and the resistance spotty they will be lionized.
 
How about a mini-civil war in Tennessee, where the eastern part of the state stays loyal due to another botched convention, giving at least a lifeline to NC and only making it a salient rather than surrounded. Would that work to keep them neutral?

I doubt they could remain neutral, they would have to choose sides sooner or later. If it joins the Union effort than VA is screwed in that scenario. They would be totally surrounded by Union states and would be attacked from all sides. I would expect VA to fall fast under those circumstances, with luck it may last a month. After that the Union Army marches into SC and Georgia and that is all she wrote. VA would go down in Southern lore as a state that stood defiant from the Yankee onslaught.

After the war NC is much better off than OTL with a lot more influence. The Republicans would probably find some way of rewarding North Carolina in one way or another as loyalty needs to be rewarded.
 
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