I'm with the last post, until the overthrow of Mussolini in mid 1943. I'd think it unlikely he would be overthrown in 1943 absent the political disaster of losing Sicilly.
One of the possibilities in this scenario is a Allied army entering Marsailles/Toulon with the aid of the Vichy government, in the same week as a invasion of NW Europe. Bourdeux is a secondary possibility in this, but the Marsailles/Toulon superport cluster is the critical prize. The ability to offload the combat forces, support, and supplies effectively triples the arrival rate of Allied forces by 1943 standards. If the Vichy government dithers the leading Allied forces headed in to the Mediterrainian can land on Sardinia/Corsica as a base for further ops against France & Italy.
One of the possibilities in this scenario is a Allied army entering Marsailles/Toulon with the aid of the Vichy government, in the same week as a invasion of NW Europe. Bourdeux is a secondary possibility in this, but the Marsailles/Toulon superport cluster is the critical prize. The ability to offload the combat forces, support, and supplies effectively triples the arrival rate of Allied forces by 1943 standards. If the Vichy government dithers the leading Allied forces headed in to the Mediterrainian can land on Sardinia/Corsica as a base for further ops against France & Italy.