Reading about medieval Sicily I came upon the 1185 expedition in the Byzantine Empire on behalf of a pretender (Alexios Komnenos Pinkernes) that was apparently very strong and managed to conquer and sack Thessalonike before getting defeated in November at Demetritzes by a renewed Roman army lead by the capable Alexios Branas. The Sicilian army was mostly destroyed and the invasion (and ineffectual response to it) was a leading cause in Andronikos downfall.
It came to me that there are a few possible PODs related to this:
a) The Norman army is better coordinated and organized and manages to defeat Branas. I doubt they wold be strong enough to force the Theodosian walls and they need to wait for spring to get complete naval support for a siege. Could they extract some significant concessions from Alexios Angelos?
b)Andronikos' men manage to capture/kill Alexios and so the now quite deranged Basilisk remains on the throne. No effective defense is mounted and the Normans camp outside Constantinople: what happens? Could Branas seize the moment to dispose of Andronikos, defeat the Normans and get crowned? He seemed quite capable.
Or...
b2) The City might even welcome the pretender/imposter Alexios: everything should appear better than a more and more paranoid and ineffectual Andronikos. I didn't read about any attempt of the Normans to impose the Latin rite during their campaign, so maybe, even if they are hated Latins this might not disqualify the Pinkernes?
c) The Norman invasion is avoided outright: Constance dies of some illness (malaria, drinking contaminated water, whatever) while en route to Milan to marry Henry VI Hohenstaufen or shortly after the marriage. With no formal alliance with the empire William doesn't feel secure enough to mount an expedition against Rhomania, maybe there could be some raiding or he could try seizing the Ionian islands and supporting the independence bid of Cyprus as iotl, but no 200 ship and 80000 men (I know it is a gross exaggeration, but still it had to be a very powerful army, at least ten thousand strong and with many knights) expedition to take Costantinople.
Results: Sicily doesn't waste a chunk of her military, Thessalonike is not devastated and maybe Andronikos keeps the throne longer (but there is a Bulgarian revolt incoming). Finally, HRE has no direct inheritance claim on Sicily, who will Henry marry? Effects on the HRE? Is a "national" evolution like rhe ine France was starting to undergo be possible with a reduced Italian focus (but less resources too and a possibility that the Stauden line could be extinguished much earlier).
So, lotd of questions, if someone wants to give their two cents they are warmly welcome! Especially if they are Byzantine experts.
It came to me that there are a few possible PODs related to this:
a) The Norman army is better coordinated and organized and manages to defeat Branas. I doubt they wold be strong enough to force the Theodosian walls and they need to wait for spring to get complete naval support for a siege. Could they extract some significant concessions from Alexios Angelos?
b)Andronikos' men manage to capture/kill Alexios and so the now quite deranged Basilisk remains on the throne. No effective defense is mounted and the Normans camp outside Constantinople: what happens? Could Branas seize the moment to dispose of Andronikos, defeat the Normans and get crowned? He seemed quite capable.
Or...
b2) The City might even welcome the pretender/imposter Alexios: everything should appear better than a more and more paranoid and ineffectual Andronikos. I didn't read about any attempt of the Normans to impose the Latin rite during their campaign, so maybe, even if they are hated Latins this might not disqualify the Pinkernes?
c) The Norman invasion is avoided outright: Constance dies of some illness (malaria, drinking contaminated water, whatever) while en route to Milan to marry Henry VI Hohenstaufen or shortly after the marriage. With no formal alliance with the empire William doesn't feel secure enough to mount an expedition against Rhomania, maybe there could be some raiding or he could try seizing the Ionian islands and supporting the independence bid of Cyprus as iotl, but no 200 ship and 80000 men (I know it is a gross exaggeration, but still it had to be a very powerful army, at least ten thousand strong and with many knights) expedition to take Costantinople.
Results: Sicily doesn't waste a chunk of her military, Thessalonike is not devastated and maybe Andronikos keeps the throne longer (but there is a Bulgarian revolt incoming). Finally, HRE has no direct inheritance claim on Sicily, who will Henry marry? Effects on the HRE? Is a "national" evolution like rhe ine France was starting to undergo be possible with a reduced Italian focus (but less resources too and a possibility that the Stauden line could be extinguished much earlier).
So, lotd of questions, if someone wants to give their two cents they are warmly welcome! Especially if they are Byzantine experts.