Noriega goes macho

WI Manuel Noriega, after JUST CAUSE had started & his PDF & DIGBATS had started to have their butts kicked in Dec 1989, decided to flee into the countryside & implement a guerilla war against the Americans ? He actually had a set of plans called GENESIS & EXODUS for that purpose, together with the kidnapping & hostage-holding of any American civilians he could get his hands on- WI he & his key lieutenants had managed to implement these plans ?

Also, WI somehow he'd managed to escape from panama instead of being holed up in the Papal Nunciature & being compelled to surrender after US PSYOPS bombarded him continually with massively loud rock & heavy metal music ?
 
Trujillo had widespread popular support and military support, but Noriega's was far less among Panamanians because he was so corrupt. If he can successfully pose as leading a struggle for independence, he may lead a resistance that lasted longer than IOTL. But I have a hard time imagining success. I doubt either Colombia or Costa Rica would offer him a refuge, though the drug lords may if they are paid enough.
 
According to “The Real Fidel Castro” by Leycester Coltman, Castro while having little sympathy for Noriega or his tactics, urged Noriega to enter Guerrilla warfare, because he was convinced a high casualty rate would cause a US pull out
 
Near the border regions there's jungle and mountains, also the Kuna region. I doubt there was much contact between Noriega and Castro except very late when Noriega was isolated. Noriega was much more of a US client who was an embarassment, like Saddam.

Castro seems to have been mostly trying to be a mediator, though even that account comes from a drug cartel leader who also claims the DEA was involved.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/special_reports/Noriegas_conviction_implicates_Castro_others.html

I think Bush Sr would've been more careful about troop use than the son, probably put a Panamanian govt back in power and let them handle any guerillas.
 
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