Non-Russian Siberia

Suppose that Russia/Muscovy fail to expand eastwards due to any PoD. Who replacrs them as Siberia's colonizer? Another European Power? The central Asian hordes? China?
 
You'd likely see a greater expansion of nations like the Khanate of Sibir, Great Perm, Condora, Tartaria, Bjaramland. Volga Bulgar etc. The POD that would prevent eastward expansion would be... what exactly? It took very little for the Russians to expand eastward, little resources, little man-power etc. The populations were also rather small within the areas conquered so resistance was minimal.
 
You'd likely see a greater expansion of nations like the Khanate of Sibir, Great Perm, Condora, Tartaria, Bjaramland. Volga Bulgar etc. The POD that would prevent eastward expansion would be... what exactly? It took very little for the Russians to expand eastward, little resources, little man-power etc. The populations were also rather small within the areas conquered so resistance was minimal.

If the Russian states never united and were constantly competing with one another, there might be an opportunity for another power to colonise Siberia.
 
Too many butterflies to say for sure, but some ideas:

1. If Novgorod still exists, they might get a big share of the northern regions. That's still a ”Russian" state, though.

2. A Turkic Muslim power ("Tatar") might take a big chunk of it if it gets its act together. A big problem for them to overcome is that the various Turkic groups had no unity in this period. Perhaps the Tatars of Kazan (who didn't call themselves Tatars before the Russians identified them as such, to my knowledge) might partake in some nation-building to unite the various groups of Tatar-speaking Muslims into a singular identity, even going as far as to spread Islam to the shamanist Turkic-speaking groups of northern Siberia. This requires nationalism to arise.

3. An independent Mongolian state might extend further to the north, encompassing the Buryats and other northern Mongolic peoples.

4. The Chinese would likely get a big chunk of it, as Sakhalin and “outer Manchuria" were indeed nominally claimed by the Chinese in premodern times. They might eventually get all the way north to the Bering Straight. If butterflies don't prevent the rise of a strong Japanese state, which could still happen if the right cards are dealt, these areas might later be contested with alt-Japan just as Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands were in OTL.

5. If, and this is the biggest if, a huge North American power comes into play, they might get involved in the region as well. Of course, butterflies would dictate that getting anything remotely resembling the United States in such a world where Russia doesn't exist would be highly unlikely, but it isn't impossible given the right conditions. Depending on how strong or weak alt-China is, any Chinese infuence in the region might be an overextension of power and the right timing might allow whoever's controlling Alaska to walk in and take charge. This, presumably, would also be an overextension of power for this hypothetical North American power and eventually lead to a multi-ethnic state based on the local indigenous peoples (and descendants of Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Manchu, and Mongolian migrants).
 
Too many butterflies to say for sure, but some ideas:

1. If Novgorod still exists, they might get a big share of the northern regions. That's still a ”Russian" state, though.

2. A Turkic Muslim power ("Tatar") might take a big chunk of it if it gets its act together. A big problem for them to overcome is that the various Turkic groups had no unity in this period. Perhaps the Tatars of Kazan (who didn't call themselves Tatars before the Russians identified them as such, to my knowledge) might partake in some nation-building to unite the various groups of Tatar-speaking Muslims into a singular identity, even going as far as to spread Islam to the shamanist Turkic-speaking groups of northern Siberia. This requires nationalism to arise.

3. An independent Mongolian state might extend further to the north, encompassing the Buryats and other northern Mongolic peoples.

4. The Chinese would likely get a big chunk of it, as Sakhalin and “outer Manchuria" were indeed nominally claimed by the Chinese in premodern times. They might eventually get all the way north to the Bering Straight. If butterflies don't prevent the rise of a strong Japanese state, which could still happen if the right cards are dealt, these areas might later be contested with alt-Japan just as Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands were in OTL.

5. If, and this is the biggest if, a huge North American power comes into play, they might get involved in the region as well. Of course, butterflies would dictate that getting anything remotely resembling the United States in such a world where Russia doesn't exist would be highly unlikely, but it isn't impossible given the right conditions. Depending on how strong or weak alt-China is, any Chinese infuence in the region might be an overextension of power and the right timing might allow whoever's controlling Alaska to walk in and take charge. This, presumably, would also be an overextension of power for this hypothetical North American power and eventually lead to a multi-ethnic state based on the local indigenous peoples (and descendants of Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Manchu, and Mongolian migrants).

I agree with quite a lot of this. I also think that you've got to consider the resources needed to occupy that space. Until the building of the Trans-Siberian Railway much of Siberia was essentially closed to Russian activity beyond outlying traders and military posts.

I think you need a railway to adequately exploit the terrain. Logically, though, it makes less sense for China to build such a railway than it did the Russians - why would you build a huge railway on the periphery as a priority? So we might see a Siberia less developed than OTL for longer.

We haven't talked about Tibet - which at times in the 15th-18th centuries could be quite expansionist.

I'm less sure about the North American interest if only because Alaska would not be a great venue from which to project such an influence and, with no Russian presence in this timeline, would likely be a Canadian rather than an American (if these entities aren't butterflied) area. Would Britain want to project into a Siberia where, prior to the 20th century the rich resources aren't known about/accessible beyond those which they already have in Canada?

My guess is that actually this region would resemble the Sahara/sub-sahara a little more - a sort of no-man's hinterland of tribes and vague colonial interest rather than explicit colonisation. As other posters have said, I'd expect lots of smaller existing fringe nations to try and project their power over bits of Siberia.

Interesting question!
 
My guess is that actually this region would resemble the Sahara/sub-sahara a little more - a sort of no-man's hinterland of tribes and vague colonial interest rather than explicit colonisation. As other posters have said, I'd expect lots of smaller existing fringe nations to try and project their power over bits of Siberia.

The main question, then, isn't really who controls it but who's living there. If this world resembles our world in which everything needs to be colored in on the map, you'll either end up with a big extension of China or a big post-colonial space-filling country in the area that is now the Russian Far East. You could get some tiaga equivalent of Chad or Niger, but the indigenous population alone wouldn't make it viable, unless a large number of them take up agriculture and urban life. OTL Russian Far East has a Russians and Ukrainian majority, but in an alternate world might need a lot of immigration, presumably from the south (Chinese or Japanese descendants). Of course, we have Mongolia as another example, but that's a smaller area than the Russian Far East.
 
Someone will try to colonize Siberia due to the Fur Trade. Maybe France would try after losing Canada or perhaps Sweden. Maybe Portugal or Netherlands even. I doubt it will be China, but more likely Mongolia or Tibet. After all Siberia is rich in furs which are popular in Asia and Europe, so someone will try.
 
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Inititially, I would lean towards China for any of the more habitable regions just based on proximity and population. However, China had plenty of time to do that (about 2000 years) and never made a move in that direction.

I don't know much about the Turkic tribes and if the land would suit their lifestyle or how they would interact with the Mongols.

Maybe Japan would be the first "modern" economy if China dragged its feet into the mid-19th century.

It seems very remote for a European power to control beyond a few hundred or thousands fur trappers and I doubt they could be considered a "government".

Prior to the mid-19th century, the resources of Siberia were not easily exploitable and I'm not sure any power beyond Russia would have a reason to put resources into it. In the end, you need a reason to be there and Russia wanted to reach the Pacific. That was their entire motivation. I'm not certain another power would do so until the global economy modernized and Siberia became more desireable for resource reasons.
 
a tangent ... Given Russia not taking Siberia, they wouldn't get Alaska either ... anyone that would take that before Great Britain or USA gets there?
 
Suppose the jurchen fail to conquer all of China, and they move north. A large part of the area is already inhabited by their language group. With north China as their base, they could expand toward the Bering sea and dominate the fur trade.
 
Likely China, the Ming were interested in Manchuria initially, maybe, if the Qing conquer China, they might move north too, because it is easier to conquer that massive territory than it is the conquer Tibet or the Western Territories.
 
He never said there has to be no Russia. He only said that Russia doesn't expand eastwards, or just not to Siberia. This could be accomplished with a proactive China claiming the area and enforcing with their military before Russia reaches Siberia, making it not worth the fight.
 
Well, in the end, it becomes the territory of any expansive power that has the economic ability and desire to develop the land and also maintains a spot in the perimeter.

Persia might be an interesting choice, especially if they centrally unite the various hordes under their control and have managed to stabilize the area by the time of industrialization. I doubt they'd seek to reach Vladivostok, but a Greater Persia expanding into Siberia wouldn't be massively out of reach.

China is a likely candidate due to vicinity, but they wouldn't develop it until later in the timeline (again, industrialization will be mandatory for any effective control) You could get a situation where a southern China might be under foreign control/foreign dynasty, and the north just expands to every scrap it can to hold onto power. There are a number of situations that you could play with here.

A non-isolationist Japan might be interesting, especially if they make an earlier play for the Bay of Okhostsk. Again, though, anything aside from the littoral will be out of play until industrialization; if it's just a wasteland, why would the Japanese want to go further? (thought in a bit)

A North American power (US et al) might be interested in the littoral. The US IOTL had a lot of interaction with the Russian Far East until the formation of the USSR. It was mostly through fishing and other economic activities, but the interaction did exist. Provide a mroe expansionist NA power, and you might see this being firmed (especially if control of the Bering straight becomes important for some reason)

I could see a Swedish Empire expanding into some of the land. Might be interesting if they were trying to reach East, same as Russia. And, say, Japan is trying to maintain contact with the west for whatever reason. (Say technology) With two nations trying to maintain in contact with the other side of the world, either side will meet and terms will be proposed to delineate the border and to begin such procurement. Their borders are secured and each can turn their eyes to their preferred theater of operations.
 
Someone will try to colonize Siberia due to the Fur Trade. Maybe France would try after losing Canada or perhaps Sweden. Maybe Portugal or Netherlands even. I doubt it will be China, but more likely Mongolia or Tibet. After all Siberia is rich in furs which are popular in Asia and Europe, so someone will try.

Problem is, from Western Europe by sea, Pacific Coasts of Siberia are very, very out of the way. Not sure it's profitable, especially with, say, Canada a hell of a lot closer.
Russia had the advantage of internal riverine lines, although they still used the long sea routes a lot eventually.
 
Inititially, I would lean towards China for any of the more habitable regions just based on proximity and population. However, China had plenty of time to do that (about 2000 years) and never made a move in that direction.

Most of the time, there was some hostile sort of steppe political entity in the way.
 
Likely China, the Ming were interested in Manchuria initially, maybe, if the Qing conquer China, they might move north too, because it is easier to conquer that massive territory than it is the conquer Tibet or the Western Territories.

Not really.
Most of Siberia is more or less pre-state/non urban, meaning that you have to largely set up administration from scratch, in unfamiliar environment. Not the case in Central Asia and Tibet, where you have already state level, literate structures to insert your rule on top of.
 
Even without a Russian state you'd have lots of individual Russians due to the fur trade. A Russian Métis state could be interesting.
 
Probably China, since they nominally claimed the majority of Siberia anyway. But the Stanovoy Range would probably be their limit of effective control until well into the 19th century.

The rest would probably end up being Persian or Tatar, since with a weaker Russia both areas would be stronger. Japan would probably grab Kamchatka, or Britain might. Unless this is an expansionistic Japan for some reason or another, in which case I could imagine Japan will be able to grab much more Siberia at an earlier date. By "grab", I mean "effectively claim", of course. Japan would have an interest in that part of the world as soon as industrialisation begins and Japan realises that the islands of Japan aren't quite as wealthy as they think in terms of resources.

Even without a Russian state you'd have lots of individual Russians due to the fur trade. A Russian Métis state could be interesting.

This is an interesting possibility too, especially for parts of Siberia far from China and without well-organised societies.
 
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