Non-nuclear Cuban Missile War?

one of the well known themes for AH is the Cuban Missile Crisis blowing up into full scale war (the novel "Resurrection Day" is a fine example). Was it a given that the war would go nuclear? I've often wondered just how the war would go if it did come to blows... would the USSR automatically throw their country into the fire over Cuba? Is it a given that the US would send in the Marines to try to take them out (it seems unlikely that anyone would think they could move fast enough)? The POD I have in mind here is that the (presumed) US air strikes take out all the missile sites in Cuba (something extremely hard to do, but not an impossibility). What then? Does the USSR automatically go nuclear, or swallow their losses, or maybe decide to negotiate now, and try it again later after things have calmed down?
 
The Soviet commander on the ground in Cuba was the one that had the authority to fire the missiles there, not Havana nor even Moscow. I think a nuclear war over a few mishaps, such as Kennedy bowing to EXCOMM's demands and ordering a retaliatory strike on the missile sites after his spy plane got shot down, is very possible.

A conventional war? Perhaps, though again I could see that Soviet commander responding to a US invasion of Cuba with his tactical missiles. Things escalate from there.

Also, I'm not sure the USA knew where all the sites were.
 
I can buy it. If Gen. Pilaev can maintain control of his missiles despite potential Cuban interference in the event of an American invasion, there's a good chance that you could get a non-nuclear Cuban Missile War.

The U.S. had a very good idea where most of the IRBMs were, and given the time needed to launch them, there's a good chance that all of the launch-capable missiles could be destroyed on the ground. The problem then comes from the truck-portable FROGs and nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba. The bombers can be shot down, but the FROGs are mobile enough to survive even a prolonged American air campaign. If the decision is made to use them, there will be enough surviving missiles to destroy the invasion force.
 
Check the book Operation Anadyr, which tells the story of the Cuban Missile Crisis from the POVs of an American officer at the Pentagon and a Soviet officer on the General Staff who was en route to Cuba by air when the missiles were first discovered. The book reprints a message sent by the Soviet Defense Minister, Marshal Rodion Malinovsky, on 22 Oct 1962, which stated that the Soviet Forces in Cuba were to be prepared to fight, but "without Statsenko's means and all of Belodgranov's cargoes." General Igor Statsenko was Commander of the Strategic Missile Force in Cuba (the SS-4 MRBMs and the planned SS-5 IRBMs that were en route), while Col. Nikolai Belodgranov was in charge of the storage depot where all the tactical weapons (FROG missile warheads, FKR cruise missile warheads, and gravity bombs for Il-28 bombers) were kept. What this meant is that the existing protocols for launch of the MRBMs-only on Khruschev's orders-were still in force, and that the previous authority to Gen. Issa Pliyev, CINC-Soviet Forces Cuba, to use the tactical weapons at his discretion, had been revoked. This message was repeated on 27 Oct, where it was categorically stated that the FROGs, or Lunas as the Soviets called them, the FKRs and the air-delivered bombs could not be utilized without permission from Moscow, and that Soviet Forces Cuba was to confirm receiving this order, which they did. The Soviets actually were preparing to disable the tac nukes when the crisis did end. The Soviet officer who prepared this part of the story was then-Col. Anatoly Gribikov, who retired as a full General.

So unless the Cubans manage to grab a warhead or two, and launch it, the war in Cuba stays conventional. However, the Soviet subs had nuclear torpedoes (10-15 KT yield) and the ROE were quite vague as to using the torpedoes. The Soviet Navy was frantically trying to contact the subs and tell them that nuclear release was now firmly in Moscow's hands, but not all of the boats got the order until 30 Oct. Give me a couple of days and I'll post the U.S. invasion force's OB for XVIII Airborne Corps and II Marine Amphibious Force. 100,000 Army troops and 40,000 Marines, backed up by 850 USAF, Navy, and Marine aircraft in Florida, and over 100 ships, including four attack and three ASW carriers. The Soviets themselves admitted later that if the war stays conventional, then Cuba is overrun in a week to 10 days. The U.S. plan called for organized resistance to end by D+18, with U.S. casualties expected to run about a thousand a day for the first 15 days. 1,190 air strike sorties expected to fly on A-Day, with D-Day in Cuba expected eight days later.
 
That would have been interesting.
What would the US do with Cuba afterwards? And what would the Russians do with West Germany afterwards?
If we gave Cuba back to the Russians, would they have given us West Germany, or would they have decided that possession was nine tenths of the law?
Would taking Cuba have pissed off the Latin American population as much as it pleased their leaders? Would taking West Germany deliberalise the European attitude toward Russia?
Interesting times.
 
U.S. Ground forces for Operations against Cuba as of 27 Oct 1962 to execute OPLAN 316-62:

XVIII Airborne Corps:
82nd Airborne Division
101st Airborne Division
1st Armored Division
1st Infantry Division
4th Infantry Division

II Marine Amphibious Force:
2nd Marine Division
2nd Infantry Division
5th Marine Regimental Landing Team

CINCLANT Reserve:
5th Infantry Division
One Combat Command from 2nd Armored Division
3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment

A-Day expected around 30 Oct 1962, with D-Day probably on or after 7 Nov 62. OPLAN 316 called for a minimium eight day air campaign, but up to 18 days at CINCLANT's discretion. Actual D-Day was to be decided by CINCLANT after consulting with XVIII Airborne Corps and II MAF.
 
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