Non-Islamic Iran and other "second Europe" countries?

If Iran had not experienced the disruptions caused by the Islamic Revolution and instead gradually liberalized, could it achieve standards of living comparable to Europe today?

And if so, what other nations could have experienced similar fates? Perhaps Chile or Argentina.
 
If Iran had not experienced the disruptions caused by the Islamic Revolution and instead gradually liberalized, could it achieve standards of living comparable to Europe today?

And if so, what other nations could have experienced similar fates? Perhaps Chile or Argentina.
In order to gradually liberalise, some people in power have to have the desire to do so. Since the Shah held a lot of the power in the country, you'd have to have a POD further back then the Islamic revolution to successfully liberalise Iran (rather then some superficial reforms the Shah enacted). Avoiding the coup that overthrew Mosaddegh would be the best POD to ensure a liberal, more prosperous Iran. Im not sure whether it would achieve western European standards of living, but it wouldn't too unlikely for them to surpass places in Eastern Europe.
 
In order to gradually liberalise, some people in power have to have the desire to do so. Since the Shah held a lot of the power in the country, you'd have to have a POD further back then the Islamic revolution to successfully liberalise Iran (rather then some superficial reforms the Shah enacted). Avoiding the coup that overthrew Mosaddegh would be the best POD to ensure a liberal, more prosperous Iran. Im not sure whether it would achieve western European standards of living, but it wouldn't too unlikely for them to surpass places in Eastern Europe.

Iran's HDI is just behind the Ukraine and ahead of FYROM.
 
If Iran had not experienced the disruptions caused by the Islamic Revolution and instead gradually liberalized, could it achieve standards of living comparable to Europe today?

And if so, what other nations could have experienced similar fates? Perhaps Chile or Argentina.

If the Shah has been willing and able to gradually liberalise the country then I firmly believe that Iran could essentially become part or the first world. At the very least pundits would be talking about the BRIICS today instead of the BRICS.

Iran oil wealth if used properly can become a massive asset here. A less dictatorial Iran could either go down the path of Saudi Arabia and build a massive welfare state for its population; which would be unproductive and a drain when the oil runs out. Or it could use the money to build the rail networks, road networks, schools, hospitals and such that the country needs.

Geographically speaking, Iran could actually easily take the place which Dubai ended up taking through a lack of alternatives. Iran Air actually planned to become what Emirates Airlines essentially is now back in the late seventies, twenty years before the latter got the same idea ... Unlike Dubai, Iran would also offer real and genuine tourist attractions. No need to create monuments from scratch when you already have Persepolis and the many other Persian ruins.
 
Iran's HDI is just behind the Ukraine and ahead of FYROM.
I was thinking more Poland/Czech Republic/Slovenia kind of Eastern Europe. Should have put that down really...

Though it should be remembered that Iran actually hasn't done too badly OTL, considering its pariah state internationally and a long devastating war in the 80's.
 
It's a shame, really. If Persia had gone the other way like it was supposed to, and the Turkish Empire stuck around, we might have seen a first world from Lisbon to Herat.

You don't need the Ottomam Empire to survive to get a first world Turkey. Turkey avoiding the coups, countercoups and other miscellanous instabilities it got OTL from 1945 to almost the nineties would be a very good starting point.

Turkey is starting to take off right now economically, but this take off could have happened well before that during the fifties or sixties. The workforce was already there, the mineral and brown coal deposits of Anatolia were already there and the technology was obtainable from the Americans.
 
I'd been fooling around with a timeline for this so...

-June 1971: Shah dies of an explosion after his television is wired to a device set off by his remote control. Years later the KGB will admit this is their 5th attempt at trying to remove him from power. Empress Farah becomes regent while her eldest son remains at boarding school as heir apparent, and surprisingly the attack is viewed as an attack not on a prestigious house isolated from the populace but on the whole of Persia

-July 1971: Farah notices that she will not be able to govern on her own, too many ofthe conservative powers in Persia will not listen to a woman giving orders. She instead decides that instead of allowing factionalism to tear the country apart she will allow the democratically elected Parliament to be reorganized with the monarchy checking the authoritarian tendencies of certain powerful factions by allowing the masses more say in how the government would be run than previously permitted. PM Hoyevida welcomes the move and begins to restructure the spending in favor of social programs and education while teaching Reza, the heir apparent, what he can about the business of running a government.

-December 1971: Iranian Parliament releases a new budget for the fiscal year that allows for a focus in education and infrastructure instead of extravagent spending on art and anniversaries. The military maintains its level of funds while the average GDP in the country will begin a striking rise.

-March 1973: Improved internal transportation and education make the country more attractive to international companies looking to expand abroad, automobile plants, chemical refineries, then semiconductor manfacturers begin to pour into the country. Average wages in Persia rises more than 10% in two years as unemployment drops sharply while higher oil prices keep the treasury flush

-May 1975: In a surprise vote Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates join Persia after decades of British rule and the rising standard of living in Persia proper. Their oil resources will be added to Persia's own while the monarchs of those territories are allowed to live on a state stipend with a caveat that they not seek to reclaim their thrones.

September 1977: Illegal immirgation from the USSR increases as conditions in Persia continue to improve, democracy and a steady improvement in overall education lead to Persia becoming a regional power. Her first nuclear power plant comes online to the concern of Israel but no immediate action is taken as Tehran is arguably on the best footing with Tel Aviv of any Middle Eastern power. At age 17, Reza Pahlavi comes to power as a more limited monarch than his father but aware that in current hands the nation is prospering. Hoyevida steps down due to illness raising concerns as his tenure is responsible for the current prosperity of Persia.

-August 1979: Russia invades Afghanistan and the Iranians, despite their Shi'ite differences with their Sunni Afghan neighbors, covertly supply arms and assistance to the Afghan freedom fighters. Turkmenistan is also brought under tight control because of "flight across the desert" into Persia is causing a substantial brain drain in the region.

-September 1981: Persia launches her first satellite via a US rocket for scientfic information-gathering and telemetry experiments. She also has already begun her own missile program through purchase of Pakistani and Libyan technology. Persia is also instrumental of the dismantaling of radical Islamist groups on her own soil after a series of terror attacks at home calling for the end of the monarchy and the imposition of a fundamentalist Islamic government. Some of these groups are funded through the government of Saddam Hussein in neighboring Iraq, a covert war of intelligence begins.

-March 1983: Afghanistan becomes even more of a flashpoint after a Soviet patrol strays across the Persian frontier. Prisoners are taken by the Persians and the Soviet troops admit to reconaissance of border defenses in the region. Though quickly returned to their motherland, Moscow is infuriated both by the capture and by the interrogation. Iraq takes advantage of the moment to invade Iran hoping that the USSR will do the same and that Iraq might keep the oil-rich Khorestan region, they find out the hard way that Iran is a nuclear power when a 115kt device wipes out the largest pocket of the Iraqi invasion force in one shot. Global uproar is immediate but the message was more for the USSR not to interfere with Persian affairs. Iraq's government falls after massive riots in the streets with the deaths of over 100,000 civilians in one weeks alone, but the fall of Baghdad and execution of Hussein two months later lead to a new democratic Iraqi government that soon sees Kurdistan in the north break away. The remainder of Iraq rebuilds with help from Persia over the next few years.

-Feburary 1985: Shahab 2 carries another Iranian satellite into orbit, marking a domestic ability to build and launch space technology. While the economy is not growing a smarkedly as ten years ago, the rule of Reza Pahlavi has seen steady 4% GDP growth per annum with an educational level equal to any first world country. In a vow that few believe possible, Persia vows to put a man in orbit by 1995 and go to the moon by 2010. Quietly an oceangoing navy is developed with one carrier as its centerpiece.

-July 1987: Russia withdraws from a devastated Afghanistan, their new democratic government accepts a great deal of assistance from Persia. New minearl deposits are discovered that appear to be worth billions of US dollars, which Persian companies are happy to develop with Afghan assistance. Kabul becomes a de facto satellite of Persia within five years

-August 1989: The dismembering of the USSR combined with the flight of many intellectuals previously create very strong ties between Persia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Azerbaijan is annexed to Persia in an honest vote with over 70% approval of its inhabitants. With Iraq and Afghanistan these nations form a new trading block, the Occidental Federation, composed largely of territories from the old Persian Empire. Together they control over 1/5 of the world's oil reserves, especially as Hell's CAvern in Turkmeistan is extinguished and the natural gas captured for export.

-December 1990: A quiet year in the Middle East comes and goes with the region prospering, Farsi is becoming an international trade language of note while the standard of living in Persia proper is comparable to Italy. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Yemen, and Armenia send observers to the OF. A Shahab 3 launch takes place quietly with an unmanned spacecraft on board, the test is successful and followed up by two more over the next 14 months.

-October 1992: Persia sends its first woman into space, signalling a coup as only the third nation to send humans into orbit. It also announces the launch of the Shahab 4 system with a space station to be placed into orbit within six months, the US and Europe sense a new space race may be imminent
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-April 1995: Somalia continues its disintegration when a large force of Persian marines arrive and land in Moghadishu. The carrier Persepolis makes its internationa debut to a stunned world who did not expect Persia to be capable of building a 45,000 ton carrier much less being able to do so years ago. Persia announces that another one is under construction and that it intends to take over Somalia until an interim government can be organized due to the dangers of international piracy. Protests are lodged but quietly most nations are thankful someone deals with the pirates. Persian forces also serve with the international forces in Bosnia/Hercegovina alongside US and NATO forces. Cape Canaveral experiences a renaissance as NASA gets additional funding to go back to the moon

-October 1997: many former Russian scientists find employ in Persia working in nuclear technology and applied sciences, especially members of the former space program. An unmanned Persian lunar flyby is made very public along with high-resolution images of the landing site of Apollo 11. Their space station is now larger than MIR and a manned lunar orbital is announced for next year with a lunar landing now anticipated by the end of 1999. US scientists are aghast as their own lunar vehicle will not be ready for at least aother two years.

-January 17, 1999: On the end of Ramadan Persian astronauts walk on the moon, the first humans to have done so in almost three decades. They place a plaque on the lunar surface and stay for a week conducting experiments. The world cheers and many people wonder how long it will be before a Mars mission occurs. Two days later the OF announces it will initiate a common currency with joint military exercises and standardization between governments, many believe it is a matter of time before the region is unified politically.

-December 1999: A military coup in Pakistan brings on a short civil war that leads to Shariff assuming vast powers with an uncontrollable frontier. Tehran becomes quite nervous as many of the Afghan tribes in the area are Islamic extremists who could agitate the situation. Somalia is released as a Persian satellite after a national election is held following the destruction of the last major faction of warring states. A Persian naval base is kept near Mogadishu and the nation joins the OF, otherwise it is left to its own affairs.

-September 2001: NASA announces that the US will walk on Mars by the end of the decade after they return astronauts to the moon, this time permanently. Russia begins collaboration with Tehran over launch systems and space objectives while China launches its first taikonaut in a bid to arrive as a latecomer to the race. Telecommunications stocks around the world plummet and every nation feels the ramifications.

-July 2003: Persian researchers announce the construction of new solar power plants after discovering a panel system with 25% efficiency and a new fusion research complex near Tehran thanks to breakthroughs made with the help of Russian engineers. The latest reactions in Persia with modified Tokamaks have reached net generation of 65% power input

-November 2005: Persian spacecraft begins an unmanned Mars flyby to test its systems, it will stay in Martian orbit as a space station and lifeboat for future use on the Red Plant. US lunar base expanded and construction of a Mars vehicle begun

-July 2007: US astronauts land on Mars for Independence Day as the Persians come into orbit before they leave. New engine technology shortens the travel time to 120 days each way at shortest orbit and the American crew of six is amazed at the Persian crew of ten, who have brought two more modules to make a Mars orbital base large enough for 10 space travelers.

-December 2009: Break-even fusion achieved in Tehran while China lands on the moon. OF fully integrates into one large federation of nations with the official language of Farsi and regional languages permitted elsewhere. Standard of living in OF is equal to France in general.
 
If the Shah has been willing and able to gradually liberalise the country then I firmly believe that Iran could essentially become part or the first world. At the very least pundits would be talking about the BRIICS today instead of the BRICS.

Iran oil wealth if used properly can become a massive asset here. A less dictatorial Iran could either go down the path of Saudi Arabia and build a massive welfare state for its population; which would be unproductive and a drain when the oil runs out. Or it could use the money to build the rail networks, road networks, schools, hospitals and such that the country needs.

Geographically speaking, Iran could actually easily take the place which Dubai ended up taking through a lack of alternatives. Iran Air actually planned to become what Emirates Airlines essentially is now back in the late seventies, twenty years before the latter got the same idea ... Unlike Dubai, Iran would also offer real and genuine tourist attractions. No need to create monuments from scratch when you already have Persepolis and the many other Persian ruins.

Actually, Revolutionary Iran has built quite a decent welfare state and invested in rails, roads and ESPECIALLY schools and hospitals. Not to to say it is a paradise, but quite a lot of the oil revenues has been really spent attempting to benefit the people.
 
You don't need the Ottomam Empire to survive to get a first world Turkey. Turkey avoiding the coups, countercoups and other miscellanous instabilities it got OTL from 1945 to almost the nineties would be a very good starting point.

Turkey is starting to take off right now economically, but this take off could have happened well before that during the fifties or sixties. The workforce was already there, the mineral and brown coal deposits of Anatolia were already there and the technology was obtainable from the Americans.

But that still leaves Mesopotamia and the Levant open the oil dictators and theocrats.
 
Awesome timeline except the actual use of nuclear weapons I mean I dunno it's hard to say OTL nukes were used once so basically any TL that has someone using nukes (outside of full on WWIII) seems off.
 
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