Suppose an isolationist/westward focused/aggressively non-expansionist regime gained power over the Russian heartland (inside the St. Petersburg-Mogilev-Voronezh-Nizhny Novgorod-Petrozadovsk pentagon) and never expanded beyond their immediate vicinity (not crossing the Urals, for example). Suppose further that this situation continued until some time after the TTL equivalent of the industrial revolution. Trade, exploration, and settling in the East is still possible, but direct military control of non-own territory isn't.
What would these areas look like today, having been left to develop more or less on their devices. Russian conquest and forced settling is replaced with competition and opportunism. The main ways to get into Siberia are the large rivers, which are best navigable from West to East. Entry from, say, China is problematic considering the barren deserts and mountain ranges ahead of any potential settler. With no Russian dominance the steppe is open to pastoral empires for a longer time, further complicating subjugation from the South or East.
Central Asia and especially Siberia are incredibly resource rich areas, and I imagine that resource extraction and trade would be the bread and butter of many of there statelets. Growing markets in Europe but also Asia will create a demand for Siberian and Central Asian furs, gold, diamonds, silver, and other metals, and later the largest coal, oil, and gas reserves in the world.
What would the effect on the native populations be? Would they be pushed into reservations as per OTL US by Siberian Gold rushers or would they try to leverage their share of the earth?
With no prison and work camps and forced mass immigration, will Siberia be even more sparsely populated than OTL? Or will the rush for natural resources attract companies, workers, and services to build small welfare states, Siberian Norways and Denmarks?
What would these areas look like today, having been left to develop more or less on their devices. Russian conquest and forced settling is replaced with competition and opportunism. The main ways to get into Siberia are the large rivers, which are best navigable from West to East. Entry from, say, China is problematic considering the barren deserts and mountain ranges ahead of any potential settler. With no Russian dominance the steppe is open to pastoral empires for a longer time, further complicating subjugation from the South or East.
Central Asia and especially Siberia are incredibly resource rich areas, and I imagine that resource extraction and trade would be the bread and butter of many of there statelets. Growing markets in Europe but also Asia will create a demand for Siberian and Central Asian furs, gold, diamonds, silver, and other metals, and later the largest coal, oil, and gas reserves in the world.
What would the effect on the native populations be? Would they be pushed into reservations as per OTL US by Siberian Gold rushers or would they try to leverage their share of the earth?
With no prison and work camps and forced mass immigration, will Siberia be even more sparsely populated than OTL? Or will the rush for natural resources attract companies, workers, and services to build small welfare states, Siberian Norways and Denmarks?