Look, the Soviets aren't going to stop at Manchuria--the Red Army will probably march all the way to Nanjing and Guangzhou. Perhaps Japan can hold Korea--they certainly can take all of Sakhalin. I would probably call Vladivostok a bloody victory for the Japanese (the Soviet defensive strategy were ready to pull back from that position in case of Japanese Attack).
But they can't really hope to keep it.
And Logistics really are the only thing keeping Japan from getting totally ground into dust here. That said, roundly humiliating the IJA and disgracing the militarist government of Japan is going to have interesting political consquences.
Nomonhan was in 1939--the escalation would take some time as well. The consequences of Soviet Forces tied up in the pacific or stuck in China is going to change things big time.
The German-Soviet pact is indeed going to be shifted; The Soviet Union would not commit anywhere as many forces to secure Poland, and Stalin is not going to be able to make a hard sale against Hitler on the border. I think this means German Lithuania and a better deal for the Germans.
This also probably means Romania doesn't yield Moldavia to the Soviets either, although they are probably forced into the German camp anyhow.
So, the German attack against the Soviet Union starts slightly further to the East, against less divisions and a Soviet Union that's distracted in what's probably turned into a either a land-sea stalemate or a massive conflagration in China.
Can Germany defeat this Soviet Union? Better odds than OTL. Ironically, the best thing Stalin can do is cede territory in the far east and sell out Chiang so that he can throw what he needs to in the West. Sadly, I think this decision is probably going to made only after the Wehrmacht celebrates Christmas in the Kremlin.
But they can't really hope to keep it.
And Logistics really are the only thing keeping Japan from getting totally ground into dust here. That said, roundly humiliating the IJA and disgracing the militarist government of Japan is going to have interesting political consquences.
Nomonhan was in 1939--the escalation would take some time as well. The consequences of Soviet Forces tied up in the pacific or stuck in China is going to change things big time.
The German-Soviet pact is indeed going to be shifted; The Soviet Union would not commit anywhere as many forces to secure Poland, and Stalin is not going to be able to make a hard sale against Hitler on the border. I think this means German Lithuania and a better deal for the Germans.
This also probably means Romania doesn't yield Moldavia to the Soviets either, although they are probably forced into the German camp anyhow.
So, the German attack against the Soviet Union starts slightly further to the East, against less divisions and a Soviet Union that's distracted in what's probably turned into a either a land-sea stalemate or a massive conflagration in China.
Can Germany defeat this Soviet Union? Better odds than OTL. Ironically, the best thing Stalin can do is cede territory in the far east and sell out Chiang so that he can throw what he needs to in the West. Sadly, I think this decision is probably going to made only after the Wehrmacht celebrates Christmas in the Kremlin.