Finally finished reading through this. It's a good read and an interesting look at the potential of Japan in this period as well as the pitfalls that would logically be faced. It definitely feels realistic.
But since the topic of colonisation in North Asia/Western North America comes up a lot when discussing this TL, I felt I should offer some comments. I'll just discuss Hokkaido/Ezo and Sakhalin/Karafuto for now.
First, Sakhalin/Karafuto should already be in Japanese hands. The Matsumae OTL already had extensive interests in the island by the mid-17th century, so a wealtheir Japan should be able to outright build trading posts. And they would want to, since furs were only one portion of the trade with northern peoples, and not even the main appeal for the Japanese in Karafuto since Karafuto was much more important for bypassing trading restrictions between China and Japan. Tungusic peoples would trade with China and sell to the Ainu and Nivkh, and the Ainu and Nivkh would pay them with furs to obtain Chinese goods for the Japanese. Additionally, Karafuto (and Hokkaido in general) were considered important for the defense of Japan, because both Hideyoshi and Tokugawa Ieyasu believed the Manchu, Koreans, or Chinese might attack from there. IIRC the latter proposed an alliance with Joseon Korea because of this. So this area would definitely be of interest.
As for Ezo/Hokkaido, if the Ainu are being more incorporated into society than being exploited by the Kakizaki/Matsumae for labour and trade, then they'll probably end up farming rice. This actually happened in the 18th century at least once, but because it was forbidden for the Ainu to farm (since then they wouldn't buy imported rice and wouldn't spend as much time fishing/hunting for the Japanese), the farm was destroyed. The same thing occurred with the millet and grains traditionally farmed by the Ainu--they were not allowed to cultivate them, so they stopped and the Ainu nearly entirely ceased farming (despite having done so since the late Jomon period). I suspect farming Ainu would be gradually assimilated into Japanese culture as their ancestors/kin were in Honshu, although they will be incredibly distinct and preserve much of their Ainu heritage as certain isolated villages in northern Honshu have to this day.
Also, the Kakizaki clan seems to have only come to power because of a civil war within the Andou clan. Hideyoshi ordered the war to stop and let his government sort it out, neither party agreed, and Hideyoshi permitted the Kakizaki (a former Andou vassal) to seize control of the region and marginalise the Andou. Nobunaga in contrast was willing to work with them. But the Andou have the best claim to Ezo because historically their clan were the nominal governors responsible for trade and are descended from other prominent families in the region such as the Oshu Fujiwara and Abe clans as well as indigenous Ainu and Emishi leaders. They were defacto rulers of the Ainu and into the 16th century were still using this position to solve disputes. So is there any chance they could do better than OTL here?
But since the topic of colonisation in North Asia/Western North America comes up a lot when discussing this TL, I felt I should offer some comments. I'll just discuss Hokkaido/Ezo and Sakhalin/Karafuto for now.
First, Sakhalin/Karafuto should already be in Japanese hands. The Matsumae OTL already had extensive interests in the island by the mid-17th century, so a wealtheir Japan should be able to outright build trading posts. And they would want to, since furs were only one portion of the trade with northern peoples, and not even the main appeal for the Japanese in Karafuto since Karafuto was much more important for bypassing trading restrictions between China and Japan. Tungusic peoples would trade with China and sell to the Ainu and Nivkh, and the Ainu and Nivkh would pay them with furs to obtain Chinese goods for the Japanese. Additionally, Karafuto (and Hokkaido in general) were considered important for the defense of Japan, because both Hideyoshi and Tokugawa Ieyasu believed the Manchu, Koreans, or Chinese might attack from there. IIRC the latter proposed an alliance with Joseon Korea because of this. So this area would definitely be of interest.
As for Ezo/Hokkaido, if the Ainu are being more incorporated into society than being exploited by the Kakizaki/Matsumae for labour and trade, then they'll probably end up farming rice. This actually happened in the 18th century at least once, but because it was forbidden for the Ainu to farm (since then they wouldn't buy imported rice and wouldn't spend as much time fishing/hunting for the Japanese), the farm was destroyed. The same thing occurred with the millet and grains traditionally farmed by the Ainu--they were not allowed to cultivate them, so they stopped and the Ainu nearly entirely ceased farming (despite having done so since the late Jomon period). I suspect farming Ainu would be gradually assimilated into Japanese culture as their ancestors/kin were in Honshu, although they will be incredibly distinct and preserve much of their Ainu heritage as certain isolated villages in northern Honshu have to this day.
Also, the Kakizaki clan seems to have only come to power because of a civil war within the Andou clan. Hideyoshi ordered the war to stop and let his government sort it out, neither party agreed, and Hideyoshi permitted the Kakizaki (a former Andou vassal) to seize control of the region and marginalise the Andou. Nobunaga in contrast was willing to work with them. But the Andou have the best claim to Ezo because historically their clan were the nominal governors responsible for trade and are descended from other prominent families in the region such as the Oshu Fujiwara and Abe clans as well as indigenous Ainu and Emishi leaders. They were defacto rulers of the Ainu and into the 16th century were still using this position to solve disputes. So is there any chance they could do better than OTL here?
