I'm kinda unaware of the specificity but it is possible that with the Spanish threat subdued and Japanese support Maguindanao Sultanate to control Mindanao and too some extent technically and state wise "modernise" ? I was always amazed by how they managed to resist the Spanish for such a long period and curious at how they could possibly go ?
Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
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Chapter 47: Iberian-Japanese War Part XII - The Treaty of Gapan
Chapter 47: Iberian-Japanese War Part XII - The Treaty of Gapan
The Battle of Cagayan-Magat and the resulting Spanish defeat deprived the latter of a fighting force capable of defeating Japanese land forces in pitched battle for the rest of the war, with Manila’s resources and efforts strained across the board. As a result, after the battle the Japanese were able to capture Santiago, the last significant Spanish outpost in the Cagayan Valley, with little to no resistance by the end of the year. Additionally, the highland tribes of northern Luzon completely defected from the Spanish, having never been converted to Catholicism or under the total control of Manila to begin with. Finally, the naval victory at Pasaleng Bay enabled the Japanese to retake Cape Bojeador and begin to conquer the northwestern coast. These victories were further bolstered by the arrival of more reinforcements from the second division, the Catholic rebellion in Kyushu finally having been suppressed sufficiently for troops to be pulled from there to Luzon. A third wave of 25,000 men from the Kanto region, led by the Kamakura Tandai’s eldest son Toshihide (織田利秀), had even been raised and sent to Kyushu.
At the onset of spring 1633, Tadataka, joined by reinforcements led by Chosokabe Tadachika, Akechi Mitsutada, and Murai Sadamasa, began marching the main army of 30,000 south towards Manila. Along the route was Balete Pass, the entrance to central Luzon, where Figueroa had placed a few thousand Spanish and Filipino soldiers and prepared an ambush. The Japanese vanguard of 5,000, led by Mitsutada, entered the pass on March 31st and were soon sprung upon on all sides by the concealed Spanish. Only a few horsemen managed to break out before the Japanese became fully surrounded and quickly reported the news to the supreme commander, who along with the main force wasn’t far behind. In a fateful decision, Tadataka chose to lead the cavalry vanguard of the rescue effort ahead of the infantry. The general reached the ongoing battle in time just when it seemed the surrounded Japanese in the pass, despite their best efforts, were on the brink of being wiped out, and began to break the encirclement. During the battle, however, an arrow struck Tadataka in the groin and he was escorted away, command taken over by Tomoyoshi. Although the Japanese would ultimately win despite sustaining a few thousand casualties, this arrow wound proved to be fatal. Hours later, Oda Tadataka, who had done so much in his lifetime to build upon the legacy of Nobuhide the Younger in Bireitou and in this war, succumbed to his injuries. In accordance with his final words, his 28 year old nephew, Kanbe Tomoyoshi, would take over the generalship of the army.
At the onset of spring 1633, Tadataka, joined by reinforcements led by Chosokabe Tadachika, Akechi Mitsutada, and Murai Sadamasa, began marching the main army of 30,000 south towards Manila. Along the route was Balete Pass, the entrance to central Luzon, where Figueroa had placed a few thousand Spanish and Filipino soldiers and prepared an ambush. The Japanese vanguard of 5,000, led by Mitsutada, entered the pass on March 31st and were soon sprung upon on all sides by the concealed Spanish. Only a few horsemen managed to break out before the Japanese became fully surrounded and quickly reported the news to the supreme commander, who along with the main force wasn’t far behind. In a fateful decision, Tadataka chose to lead the cavalry vanguard of the rescue effort ahead of the infantry. The general reached the ongoing battle in time just when it seemed the surrounded Japanese in the pass, despite their best efforts, were on the brink of being wiped out, and began to break the encirclement. During the battle, however, an arrow struck Tadataka in the groin and he was escorted away, command taken over by Tomoyoshi. Although the Japanese would ultimately win despite sustaining a few thousand casualties, this arrow wound proved to be fatal. Hours later, Oda Tadataka, who had done so much in his lifetime to build upon the legacy of Nobuhide the Younger in Bireitou and in this war, succumbed to his injuries. In accordance with his final words, his 28 year old nephew, Kanbe Tomoyoshi, would take over the generalship of the army.
Modern-day Balete Pass
In spite of the heavy losses at Balete Pass, the battle-tested Tomoyoshi rallied the army and after a period of rest continued south towards Manila and fought off small groups of Spanish and Filipino soldiers dispersed throughout central Luzon, reaching Gapan by the beginning of May, where he made camp. At the same time, Miyoshi Yasutaka’s army of 10,000, supported by Sukenori’s armada, marched down the northwestern coastal lowlands of Luzon and easily defeated the paltry garrisons along the coast, set to converge with Tomoyoshi by the end of the month before marching directly onto Manila. A last attempt to reverse the course of the war took place in the seas when on March 22nd, Antonio de Oquendo, accompanied by Juan de Amezqueta’s contingent, sailed to Lingayen Gulf with a Spanish fleet of 60 ships and clashed with the Japanese fleet, but once again and for the last time, Sukenori triumphed and prevented the Spanish attempt to isolate and blockade Yasutaka’s army. By mid-May, governor-general Luis de Guzman y Figueroa knew that nothing could stop the Japanese advance, and he would subsequently send messengers to Tomoyoshi in order to commence peace negotiations, despite protesting voices holding out for a Spanish-Portuguese naval victory that could change the tide of war.
Campaigns on Luzon 1633 (salmon=Japanese, light orange=Spanish-Portuguese)
The Spanish envoys were accepted by Tomoyoshi and preliminary talks began, with the general also dispatching a messenger to Azuchi. When Tomoyoshi’s messenger reached Azuchi in June, war hawks in the government wanted to continue the war and capture Manila. Others, however, urged for immediate peace as the war objective of weakening Spanish-Portuguese power had been accomplished for the most part. In particular, the urban merchant class had expressed their desire for the resumption of trade relations through letters to Azuchi and even the daijo-daijin himself. Indeed, government revenue had been hit hard with the disruption of trade as a significant portion of Azuchi finances came from customs duties of centrally administered ports [1]. The mounting costs of both the war and Catholic rebellions had even forced Azuchi to introduce a form of scutage [2] on non-participatory daimyo, the first direct tax on daimyo by a central authority in history. In the end, Nobutomo pragmatically agreed to the peace negotiations albeit to Japan’s benefit and sent foreign affairs magistrate Ikeda Masatora to Luzon.
Negotiations would last late into the year, although this didn’t halt all military activity as sultan Muhammad Kudarat continued his campaigns on Mindanao and the Japanese skirmished with bands of Catholic natives and Spanish soldiers. However, the outcome was clear as even an order from Madrid to engage in peace talks arrived in Manila in October, as Spain needed much of the Manila navy to bolster its seapower against the Dutch Republic and France in Europe.
On November 2nd, 1633, the Treaty of Gapan was signed by the Japanese and Spanish as well as delegations from Lamitan, Tidore, and Jakarta. Spain officially ceded Fort San Salvador to the Japanese, as well as northern Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Norte/Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, El Principe), the Babuyan Islands, and the Batanes. All pre-war Spanish holdings in Mindanao would also be ceded to the Maguindanaon sultanate, as was Portuguese Malacca to the Dutch and Macau back to Ming China. The Dutch treaty with Tidore would also be upheld. Additionally, payment equating to 10% of all revenue from the Manila-Acapulco galleon trade would be collected by Japan annually from Spain for 10 years. Although the Japanese would make peace with the Iberian powers upon the ratification of the treaty in early 1634 in both Azuchi and Manila, the Dutch only agreed to a regional truce in Asia as their war with Spain continued in the Americas and on the home front.
Negotiations would last late into the year, although this didn’t halt all military activity as sultan Muhammad Kudarat continued his campaigns on Mindanao and the Japanese skirmished with bands of Catholic natives and Spanish soldiers. However, the outcome was clear as even an order from Madrid to engage in peace talks arrived in Manila in October, as Spain needed much of the Manila navy to bolster its seapower against the Dutch Republic and France in Europe.
On November 2nd, 1633, the Treaty of Gapan was signed by the Japanese and Spanish as well as delegations from Lamitan, Tidore, and Jakarta. Spain officially ceded Fort San Salvador to the Japanese, as well as northern Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Norte/Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, El Principe), the Babuyan Islands, and the Batanes. All pre-war Spanish holdings in Mindanao would also be ceded to the Maguindanaon sultanate, as was Portuguese Malacca to the Dutch and Macau back to Ming China. The Dutch treaty with Tidore would also be upheld. Additionally, payment equating to 10% of all revenue from the Manila-Acapulco galleon trade would be collected by Japan annually from Spain for 10 years. Although the Japanese would make peace with the Iberian powers upon the ratification of the treaty in early 1634 in both Azuchi and Manila, the Dutch only agreed to a regional truce in Asia as their war with Spain continued in the Americas and on the home front.
Map of the Philippine archipelago after the Treaty of Gapan (salmon=Japan, light orange=Spain, brown=Maguindanao, lime=Lanao Confederation)
The end of the Iberian-Japanese war and the Treaty of Gapan confirmed Japan’s ascendance and newfound influence in the region alongside the Dutch East India Company’s own gains in its power and influence. It also led to greater political centralization of the realm under Azuchi as the war necessitated the unprecedented coordination of men, supplies, policy, and finances within a feudal framework. As for the Spanish and Portuguese, their presence, although not wiped out, was permanently weakened and sidelined in favor of the victors, and revenue from Asia to Madrid and Lisbon precipitously declined over the next few years. Unfortunately for the greater Habsburg dynasty, however, their defeat in Asia was only the closing of a year marked by defeats, particularly in central Europe, and even more lay ahead in the near future as the Iberian-Japanese War’s final outcome began to be felt closer to home.
[1]: Unlike IOTL, customs duties are instituted in cities like Sakai and Yamaguchi, directly taxing commerce, albeit at relatively low rates.
[2]: A form of taxation in lieu of military service. In this case, it was mainly levied on daimyo in the Kanto, Chubu, and Oshu regions.
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All things considered this is a good victory for the Japanese. The Japanese now have a stronghold in Luzon, and I'm sure we'll see another war over the Philippines after the ten year truce to take more of the Philippines and eventually get to Borneo and the Brunei Sultanate to control the spice trade.
PS how would the silver trade be disrupted when Japan takes more and more of the Philippines? I don't see the Chinese and Spanish being accepting of Japanese designs over such an important trade route.
PS how would the silver trade be disrupted when Japan takes more and more of the Philippines? I don't see the Chinese and Spanish being accepting of Japanese designs over such an important trade route.
Spain kept a lot more than I expected. But given the context, it makes sense.
Oh yeah Macau is China's which is a bit surprising. They still have East Timor and the ports in Sulawesi, but yeah they're the main losers of the conflict. Makes you wonder if the Japanese would ally with the Portuguese in the future.
Not bad at all. Japan’s come away with a not-insignificant slice of land - plus with Bireitou confirmed as theirs - and a new ally/satellite state in the Southern Philippines.
There seems to be a hint that the next crisis Habsburg Spain will face will be in Europe, so maybe the Portuguese (Along with Catalonia) rebel and ally with Japan in Asia, though I'm not sure what they could gain from this partnership, as they have little in the region now.
I don't remember anymore at the moment, but what goes down in Korea and what are Japanese plans in the area?
idk too but I think at this point the imjin war defo won't happen so they should have amicable relations.
I mean yeah if they prevent Sulawesi from falling to the Dutch the Portuguese could gain the island in addition to Timor, East Nusa Tenggara and Talibu island.
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Honestly, surprised the japanese didn't take everything but given war is expansive and much of their revenue TTL is from trade with the outside world, but what's important is that they got peace, got a piece of the Philippines and weakened the Iberians while improving the situation of their allies so they did great.
And as mentioned by other commenters, Portugual is gonna be pissed by the fact they have essentially lost their Asian Empire (especially Macau as it was their main entry point into isolated China) so you can expect a Portuguese to happen even harder as well as Spain not being as successful in driving it back given their fleet stuck in Asia, which has the effect of better French and Dutch success.
Also, while Japan and the sultanate are enjoying success for now, they should be wary a Bourbon rule will (most likely) get to Spain and all that reforms they brought in, so the Philippines won't be the isolated Asian outpost anymore as much as actual fortress base in the region, especially given the slap in the face that it was losing the war. Although I expect any Bourbon ruled Spain would've probably focus on destroying the Sultanate, the japanese only got agrressive because of Spanish conspiracies and catholic fervor and were willing to do peace when asked, so considering the less excessively catholic bourbons would come to power, they would not aggravate the japanese as much and would instead focus on the sultanate which is weaker and better for the taking.
Not to mention the Dutch decadence down the line might see them fall prey to japanese ambitions ironically enough.
And as mentioned by other commenters, Portugual is gonna be pissed by the fact they have essentially lost their Asian Empire (especially Macau as it was their main entry point into isolated China) so you can expect a Portuguese to happen even harder as well as Spain not being as successful in driving it back given their fleet stuck in Asia, which has the effect of better French and Dutch success.
Also, while Japan and the sultanate are enjoying success for now, they should be wary a Bourbon rule will (most likely) get to Spain and all that reforms they brought in, so the Philippines won't be the isolated Asian outpost anymore as much as actual fortress base in the region, especially given the slap in the face that it was losing the war. Although I expect any Bourbon ruled Spain would've probably focus on destroying the Sultanate, the japanese only got agrressive because of Spanish conspiracies and catholic fervor and were willing to do peace when asked, so considering the less excessively catholic bourbons would come to power, they would not aggravate the japanese as much and would instead focus on the sultanate which is weaker and better for the taking.
Not to mention the Dutch decadence down the line might see them fall prey to japanese ambitions ironically enough.
I must confess my surprise the Dutch or Japanese didn’t take Macao. Instead it was given back to China? Interesting.
Probably because they both already have good places to trade directly with China and instead of bothering them to get back a city that was basically rented for the Portuguese, they can make some good will by "giving it back"
I do think the Spanish and Japanese will have a rematch soon, the truce will end in ten years time and we'd hopefully see a more europeanised Japanese navy with an emphasis on broadside shooting, and I can also see Japanese making ships with armoured bows so that they could charge in and broadside enemy ships in close range. It'd fit with their tactics.
yeah I'd really like to see Sumatra falling to the Japanese.
I'd really wanna see which cities are used to trade with Japan other than the obligatory Guangdong. Fuzhou?
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Japan can either buy or puppetise the rest of the colony down the line. It's just a shame that the port of Sual will remain much more underutilised for the meantime – why did they not press for Nueva Ecija when they have already held it, anyway?
If the Samurai continued to want prizes - then gaining more counties at Luzon is the way to go.
On the other hand, a Filipino identity - or at least a Catholic one - would have been much more nascent, especially considering the reaction that this war would have produced.
If the Samurai continued to want prizes - then gaining more counties at Luzon is the way to go.
On the other hand, a Filipino identity - or at least a Catholic one - would have been much more nascent, especially considering the reaction that this war would have produced.
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You do know the Sultanate along with the Dutch an important ally with Japan since they helped divide Iberian and their native allies military and if/when Spain (either a Bourbon or another monarch) attack attacks the Sultanate, Japan will either join their war or support them. Also since they joined the war the Sultan will start modernizing so they're prepared in case another war with Spain or other European nations.
On the contrary, I believe that the glut of land will provide for a huge incentive for prize-seeking behaviour, which can make for a more feudalistic structure similar - if cruder - to that of Japan's.
Besides, they still need to keep the Zamboanga tribes whose seafaring interests can diverge from that of Maguindanao's desire for centralisation, let alone the Lanao confederation.
I do think the samurai and daimyo would become more hungry for land, but hopefully we see the creation of a merchant-daimyo class that starts to create something akin to companies that will be untethered from the politics of Japan, as I'm sure Japan will go through some rough patches at times.